Sunday 12/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
2	2	ER SOPHIA	5/2	Dobson, Billy - 15	486.25
1	1	J-S JASPER	4/1	Athearn, Matthew - 10	482.72
6	6	SWEET SOFIE T	6/1	Devaux, Jim - 20	459.60
3	3	WHY U BUGGING	3/1	Stark, John Jr - 18	456.04
4	4	MR FRENCH	10/1	Randall, Jay - 18	440.01
7	7	JOEY PRO	12/1	Beckwith, Brett - 16	434.74
5	5	POKER PLAY	9/2	Cushing, Mitchell - 11	431.06

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TALKING HORSES
Sunday December 3, 2023
AQUEDUCT

Acacia Courtney
Race 1 4-5-3-1
Race 2 2-1-3-4
Race 3 4-1-2-5
Race 4 7-1A-2-6
Race 5 7-6-4-1
Race 6 4-2-6-3
Race 7 7-4-8-6
Race 8 2-5-8-3
Race 9 7-8-11-2

Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2 4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3 2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4 1A - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5 1 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 6 4 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 7 7 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 8 3 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 9 12 - 7 - 8 - 11

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Picks & Plays for Sunday, December 3
by David Aragona

AQUEDUCT

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1: 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 2 - 1A - 4
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 1A - 7 - 8

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 4

I don’t have a major knock against Howzyourcashflow (#1A) other than the fact that she’s part of an entry, and coupled pairs like this where I much prefer one half to the other are typically poor wagering value. From a form standpoint, this filly is clearly the one to beat. She’s already won at this level, but is able to continue competing for this claiming condition though the end of the year because she’s a 3-year-old. She’s also drawn well outside in a race that features some pace inside of her. She couldn’t quite finish going a mile last time when beaten by a stablemate, and I like her returning to a dirt sprint, where she’s undefeated. She’s not exactly interesting from a price standpoint, but she figures to run well. That said, I do think the margin between she and Everlys Girl (#2) might have been closer on Oct. 22 had that filly been able to get outside of kickback a bit earlier. She didn’t look the most comfortable traveling behind horses and was trying gamely through the lane, even after her rider dropped the crop in upper stretch. Now she makes her first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin and James Riccio. My top pick is Dufresne (#8). This filly’s form has been generally poor since she returned for her 4-year-old campaign, but I thought she finally showed some signs of life last time when dropped in class. She displayed improved early speed, opening up on the far turn before tiring a bit late going 7 furlongs. The pace was fast, so she had a right to come back to the field. She’s facing a slightly tougher group this time, but I don’t mind her cutting back to 6 furlongs, and the Oscar Barrera barn has been sending out live runners this month.

Fair Value:
#8 DUFRESNE, at 7-1 or greater


RACE 5

If I had confidence that all of these horses were going to run to their best form Bold Looker (#4) would be an easy selection. He’s generally faced better horses and has earned superior speed figures on every surface he’s tried. He also seems to relish longer distances, having even run competitively going as far as 1 1/4 miles on synthetic earlier this year. His last race isn’t as bad as it looks, since he was outrun early and was finishing fastest of all late. However, he was a voided claim that day, and now resurfaces 3 months later for a different barn. Presumably, he was a private purchase, so it’s not a great sign to now see him back in for the same bottom level. I would use him, but he’s hard to fully trust at what could be a short price. Another thing working against that horse is the general lack of pace in this race. That’s also a concern for South Street (#6), but at least he showed some improved tactical speed last time when chasing home the improved Kingdom at this level. He’s fairly logical now that Orlando Noda has him headed in the right direction, and he’s handled this distance in the past even though his recent efforts going this far are poor. I’m just more interested in a couple of alternatives at prices. One of those is Dads Good Runner (#1), who figures to get an aggressive ride from the inside under Katie Davis. Without much speed signed on, this horse should be forwardly placed considering that he’s led in much shorter events. The distance is obviously a question, but he seemed to improve with the stretch-out to a mile recently, and he is a son of solid dirt route influence Gun Runner. My top pick is Uncle Water Flow (#7). He’s another who lacks some early speed, but he did show the ability to be more forwardly placed two back. Last time he was outrun chasing a quicker pace, and he was disadvantaged around the far turn when having to angle so wide to make his move. He was finishing well towards the end, and I like him stretching back out to 9 furlongs. He ran well going this distance a year ago, and finally seems to be rounding back into form for Tony Dutrow.

Fair Value:
#7 UNCLE WATER FLOW, at 5-1 or greater
#1 DADS GOOD RUNNER, at 6-1 or greater


RACE 6

It’s pretty obvious that Un Ojo (#4) will be tough to beat as he drops in class out of a strong effort against much tougher company in the Empire Classic. It’s easy to throw out his turf race two back, since he just doesn’t handle that surface. He’s otherwise improved as a 4-year-old, as he was competitive with the in-form Olympic Dreams back at Saratoga and then didn’t get the best trip at Pimlico subsequently. If he can repeat that last effort going this distance in the Empire Classic he’s going to be a handful at a likely short price. Most people looking for alternatives will probably consider Exit Right (#8) and Prince of Pharoahs (#3). The former has been a win machine out of town for Jamie Ness, maintaining consistent form despite a busy schedule. Yet he wasn’t quite as successful when he shipped to Aqueduct twice earlier this year, and I wonder if he produce his best effort in this spot. Prince of Pharoahs goes out for a barn that’s been quite dangerous over the past month, but I’ve never been confident about him going this demanding 9-furlong distance. I want to go a different direction with a bigger price. Bossmakinbossmoves (#6) might look inferior at first glance, but I think he’s subtly been rounding back into form this year for David Duggan. The drop in for the $16k tag three back seemed to wake him up, as he got engaged in the late stages. He then carried that form into tougher spots, making up some ground in the stretch two back and then again hitting his best stride too late last time. A mile has always been a little short for him, so I like him stretching back out to 9 furlongs with Kendrick Carmouche, who got some experience with him last time. It also helps that this barn has been hot so far at the meet.

Fair Value:
#6 BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES, at 7-1 or greater


RACE 8

The Thunder Rumble division of the New York Stallion Series is topped by open stakes winner Today’s Flavor (#8). This gelding earned that premier victory in the off the turf Belmont Turf Sprint back in October, lead throughout as he fended off some seasoned rivals who can excel on either surface. He subsequently disappointed in the Hudson when dropped back in against New York-breds, but he was catching a very fast rival in Rotknee, who dueled him through some swift early fractions. Today’s flavor couldn’t withstand the pressure and faded badly. He faces other speed again here, but the difference today is that now he’s drawn outside of his pace rivals, so he should get a more comfortable trip. I still have some concerns about him seeing out 7 furlongs after getting early pressure, but he’s the horse to beat. I prefer his main rival Barese (#5). This colt’s 4-year-old form looks inconsistent compared to prior seasons, but he’s been in some tough spots and now might be returning to the right distance. Even though he’s won around two turns, I’ve never loved him going 9 furlongs, so the Empire Classic was always going to be an ambitious spot for him. He also didn’t get the right trip that day, as he was hustled along early and made a premature move down the backstretch. He then got caught behind a tiring rival on the far turn and was shuffled out of position, costing him any chance. He had appeared to be getting back on track prior to that. Now he cuts back to a distance that should suit him, and he’s supposed to get a fair pace up front. I also want to use some other horses who can rally from just off the pace. Callaloo (#2) found himself on the lead last time, but he doesn’t need to be that aggressive. He’s been steadily improving over the past year, and his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures suggest he’s capable of stepping up to this level. General Banker (#3) is another who should be picking up pieces late, and he figures to be a square price in here off a set of modest speed figures. Yet he probably needed his return from the layoff last time and won anyway against a softer field. I expect him to move forward with that start under his best, and the 7-furlong distance is ideal for him.

Fair Value:
#5 BARESE, at 2-1 or greater


RACE 9

It will be important to note whether Mangia (#1A) draws into this field from the AE list, since she raced competitive in a maiden special weight race on debut. That wasn’t the toughest spot for the level, but it was likely a stronger race than this one. David Donk rarely has horses cranked up to win first time out, so she makes sense on the drop if he participates. Among those in the main body of the race, I’m not thrilled with those who have already competed at this maiden claiming level, since this is more of a competitive race for the level than many are exiting. Mysaria (#7) faced a much better field on debut, where she actually had some decent position in the opening furlong before greenly losing position in the slop. She showed vastly improved early speed, but wasn’t able to sustain it through the late stages in a slow race for the level. Tim Hills is 7 for 38 (18%, $3.19 ROI) with MSW to MCL dropdowns over the past 5 years. I’m just a little more interested in another dropdown. Mia Nipotina (#2) was running on with some good late interest in her debut after lagging well behind early. It might seem like she regressed in her second start, but she was facing a much tougher field that day. That race was won by Dolomite, who returned to finish third against open company in the Grade 2 Demoiselle on Saturday. Furthermore, that’s a race out of which multiple horses have since improved their speed figures by around 15 points or more. She’s getting logical class relief for a barn that did send out a big price winner a little earlier in the meet, and also receives a rider upgrade to Eric Cancel.

Fair Value:
#2 MIA NIPOTINA, at 6-1 or greater

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Gulfstream Hotlist - December 3
Dec. 01, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (10) Marceau closed sharply in his turf debut and gets top billing here. (11) Homer Jones seems bred to go long and score here. (2) Falfurrias may perk up on turf. (1) Will of a Warrior debuts for Brown and should be a factor. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-10-11.

3rd race – (1) Riding Pretty exits a Grade 2 stakes and has a class edge here. (3) Flakes will appreciate a return to dirt. (6) Rosie’s Halo will be a threat on her best try. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6.

6th race – (5) King James deserves a long look while moving over to Tapeta. (6) Famous Gent should move forward on Tapeta. (8) Competitive Saint seeks a third straight win and cannot be ignored. (1) Amor Lejano fits in nicely and will be helped by a ground-saving trip. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-8.

8th race – (6) Heathcliff makes his first start since moving to Joseph’s barn and merits close attention. (1) Pure Class was second in all three starts and can complete the exacta. (3) Valued Cajun rallied for second in his debut and cannot be overlooked. (5) Smokin Jack Flash was a promising third last time and will be a main contender. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-6.

10th race – (2) Twilight Gleaming was a competitive fourth in a Grade 2 stakes last time and is the one to beat. (7) Opening Buzz can be a factor on his best try. (9) Leave No Trace will be tougher at this distance. (4) Hit the Woah can work out a good trip in this field. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-7-9.

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Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Virginia Tech -11 over Louisville

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Free play from Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Los Angeles Chargers/New England Patriots under 39

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Free play from #1 Sports

Early Sunday's Free Play: Arizona State Sun Devils - 1

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Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Early Sunday's Free Pick: Chicago Blackhawks + 240

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Free play from The Last Call

Sunday's Early Free Play: (818) Canisius - 5

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Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Sunday: Miami Dolphins - 9 1/2

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Free play from Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play Sunday
LA KINGS (NHL)

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Free play from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 3, 2023
FREE
NFL
12/03 01:25 PM PT / 4:25 PM ET
NFL (469) CLEVELAND BROWNS VS (470) LOS ANGELES RAMS
Take: UNDER
Reason: The Cleveland Browns head West to take on the LA Rams from Sofi Stadium. The Browns had to go out and sign a one-time Super Bowl as they brought in Joe Flacco. Flacco has been named the starter for today's contest. QB Deshaun Watson remains out with a shoulder injury as does RB Nick Chubb, both of whom will miss the remainder of the season. How much Flacco has left in the tank will remain to be seen, especially since he hasn't played this year. The Browns had their 3-game win streak snapped last week at Denver, 12-29. The offense scored just 12 last week and 13 the previous week vs Pittsburgh. The Browns are still in the playoff race as they are tied for 2nd place in the AFC North with Pittsburgh at 7-4, both 2.5-games back of Baltimore. The Browns average just 21.7 ppg while allowing 19 ppg. They also average 320.6 ypg while allowing 247.9 ypg. The LA Rams can climb back to the .500 mark with a win here today. They are 5-6 and in 3rd place in the NFC West. They average 21.1 ppg while allowing 21.3 ppg. They also average 340.6 ypg while allowing 331.2 ypg. The Rams have won two straight games over Seattle and last week at Arizona, 37-14, as a 2.5-point favorite. The Rams had one of their best offensive games with 228 yards rushing and 229 yards passing. I am not sold on Flacco taking over at QB here for the Browns. With no game experience this year and not exactly much results when he did last play, I can't imagine the Browns giving him a lot of the playbook here today. Take the UNDER

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Free play from Roz Wins

ROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2023
NFL
460. Buccaneers -3.5 (1:05 PT / 4:05 ET)

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Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Colorado Buffaloes -16 over Pepperdine

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Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Sunday:Take DENVER/HOUSTON UNDER the total of 47.5