Sunday 12/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • ConleyPicks
    Senior Member
    • Aug 2020
    • 16966

    #61
    Stephen Nover

    Free Play: Panthers/Bucs Over 36.5

    Baker Mayfield comes across as obnoxious and unlikeable. At least he does to me. He's never justified himself to be worth the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft becoming more journeyman than star. The Buccaneers are Mayfield's fourth NFL team in the last three years.

    But I have to give Mayfield credit for grit and producing some underrated numbers this season. He has 17 touchdown passes and thrown for 199 or more yards in his last eight games.

    Now Mayfield gets to face Carolina's 30th-ranked defense at home. So I expect the Buccaneers to produce their share of points. The key is will Carolina keep up? I believe they will making this a higher scoring game than the oddsmaker has envisioned with this low total.

    This will be Carolina's first game under interim coach Chris Tabor. He's the Panthers' special teams coach. This is what Tabor was quoted as saying about his coaching style: "I'm going to coach loose and I'm gonna coach to have fun because that's the only way I know in order to be successful."

    Now that Frank Reich is gone, it's time for the Panthers to take the training wheels of Bryce Young. The Panthers don't have a very good offensive line. They lack speedy weapons and their ground attack leaves much to be desired. Still, Young definitely can have success against this opponent.

    Tampa Bay ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers also have ruled out important players on defense. Out are cornerback Jamel Dean and their two best linebackers, Lavonte David and Devin White.

    If you discount their 20-6 victory against a bad Tennessee offense three weeks ago, the Buccaneers are giving up an average of 31 points in their last three games.

    I've also wagered Adam Thielen Over 58 1/2 receiving yards on a prop bet. The still reliable Thielen is Young's go-to guy. He's caught 77 passes - 31 percent of the Panthers' receptions - while averaging 66.1 receiving yards a game.

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    • ConleyPicks
      Senior Member
      • Aug 2020
      • 16966

      #62
      Mike Williams

      1* on Eagles+3

      Comment

      • ConleyPicks
        Senior Member
        • Aug 2020
        • 16966

        #63
        Ricky Tran

        Ricky's 1* play on SF-148

        Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

        - San Francisco are 16-4 in their last 20 games.

        - San Francisco are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in December.

        - San Francisco are 8-3 in their last 11 games on the road.

        Verdict: The Value is on the road favorite.

        Comment

        • ConleyPicks
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2020
          • 16966

          #64
          Sean Murphy

          Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

          The Eagles were involved in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Bills last Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold as they host the 49ers this week. Coaxing a high-scoring affair out of the 49ers has proven difficult over the last six games. In fact, San Francisco's highest-scoring game over that stretch produced just 48 points in a home loss against the Bengals - its worst defensive effort of the season by far. I don't think the two defenses are being given enough credit in this matchup. The Niners defense has completely manhandled the opposition since its bye week, allowing a grand total of just 30 points in three games. We saw what the Eagles defense is capable of two weeks ago as it confused the Chiefs offense all night long, allowing only 17 points, on the road no less. San Francisco's offense always has that big-play potential, but when playing with a lead, as it projects to do here as a road favorite, it tends to get a little conservative and run-heavy. The Eagles defensive strength is up front, creating a strength-on-strength matchup in that regard. Note that the 'under' is 21-6 in the Eagles last 27 games following a contest where both teams scored 30 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under.

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          • ConleyPicks
            Senior Member
            • Aug 2020
            • 16966

            #65
            Black Widow

            1* Free Wiseguy Play on Predators+105

            *All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

            Comment

            • ConleyPicks
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2020
              • 16966

              #66
              Timothy Black

              1* Best Bet on Blue Jackets+1.5 -104

              No analysis provided.

              Comment

              • ConleyPicks
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2020
                • 16966

                #67
                AAA Sports

                1* FREE PLAY LA-130

                Colorado is tired. It's 15-6 overall, but it's off B2B extra-time road losses, including a 4-3 shootout loss vs. the Ducks just last night. With a home rematch vs. Anaheim on Tuesday, can anyone say "letdown" spot here vs. the well-rested and revenge-minded Kings, who fell 5-2 here to the Avs at the start of October; a great situational play here on LA, so consider the Kings here on Sunday night!

                AAA Sports

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                • ConleyPicks
                  Senior Member
                  • Aug 2020
                  • 16966

                  #68
                  Brandon Lee

                  8* NFL Chiefs/Packers Free Pick

                  PLAY ON: Chiefs -5.5 -115

                  I like the spot here with Kansas City and the price has come down to where there's enough value that this warrants a small bet. You never want to overreact to what you saw the previous week, but I want to buy low on this Chiefs offense after their strong showing in last week's win over the Raiders. For really the first time all season, Mahomes was trying to consistently get the ball to rookie wideout Rashee Rice. He had the best game by a Chiefs WR in who knows how long with 8 catches for 107 yards and a score. I think they found something with Rice and could end up being the spark that turns the page for an offense that has really not been anywhere close to what we expected. That's a scary thing for the rest of the NFL, because this Chiefs defense is REALLY good at all 3 levels. With how much Green Bay struggles to run the ball, a lot is going to be asked of Jordan Love in this game. I think he struggles against a very talented KC secondary and strong pass rush. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!

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