Sunday 12/31/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brandon Lee

7* NFL Titans/Texans Free Pick

PLAY ON: Texans -4

I'll lay the 4 with the Texans at home against the Titans in Week 17. Houston had no business beating Tennessee 19-16 on the road back in Week 15. With that said, they won the game without CJ Stroud. He's back from concussion protocol. I look for Stroud to carve up a bad Titans secondary. The other big thing for me in this play is motivation. Houston is in a 3-way tie for the top spot in the AFC South at 8-7 and still in the Wild Card hunt. They need this game. Tennessee on the other hand is sitting at 5-10 with nothing to play for. Even if the Titans show up for this game, there's no reason to think their offense will be able to keep pace with Stroud and company on the road. Give me the Texans -4!

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Jeff Alexander

1* NFL - Titans/Texans FREE PICK on Texans -3.5

**9x Top 10 NFL (3x #1 NFL)** - #2 NFL L30 Days **17-2 RUN L19 NFL PICKS**

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Giants+6 -105

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Matt Fargo

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS-14 -108 for our Sunday Free Play. Buffalo has won three straight games and could be peaking at the right time heading into the final two games and this is a must win to have a shot at the AFC East title. The Bills slept walked in Los Angeles last Saturday as they pulled out a last second two-point win over the Chargers but that was definitely a letdown spot coming off wins over Kansas City and Dallas. This is a big number but we have seen Buffalo run away with games at home over the last couple seasons and this could feasibly be their final home game of the season should they not win the division. The Bills remain a top team in the metrics despite a 9-6 record as they are No. 3 in net DVOA. This is a revenge game for the Bills following a loss in New England earlier in the season as they rallied from a 22-10 deficit late in the fourth quarter to take the lead only to allow New England to drive down the field to score the go ahead touchdown with 12 seconds remaining. The Patriots are coming off an upset win at Denver as the offense came alive with 26 points, the most they have scored since that Buffalo game in Week Seven and that was only the third time all season they have scored more than 20 points. Give credit to the defense that continues to play hard as they are one of the best against the run but are No. 23 in defensive passing EPA and we could see a big game from Josh Allen. New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 24 or more ppg while the Bills are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a win by three points or less. Play (108) Buffalo Bills

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Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are rolling right now going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They have scored an average of 28.5 PPG during their 4-game winning streak as Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career. The Bucs are also getting healthy on defense which is a big reason for their resurgence. Overall, they are one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Saints just cannot be trusted with their dink and dunk offense and leaky defense. We already saw this matchup once with the Bucs winning 26-9 in New Orleans in dominant fashion. They had 353 yards of offense and held the Saints to just 197 total yards while forcing 3 turnovers. I like the price we are getting on the Bucs at home as only 2.5-point favorites as they'll be hungry to win this game and clinch the division. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS after playing its last game on the road this year. Take Tampa Bay.

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY Raiders/Colts OVER 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts are 10-5 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in their seven home games. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the NFL and are a great offensive team but a terrible defensive team. They average 27.0 points per game, 376 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play at home while allowing 26.6 points per game, 357 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play at home. The Raiders have played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses lately with their numbers being down against the Chiefs (twice), Vikings, Dolphins and Jets. But in their two games against the Chargers (63) and Giants (30), they scored a combined 93 points in those two games. Now they take a step down in class here against this Colts defense and should be able to put up some points as they try and keep up in a shootout. The Colts should get back leading receiver Michael Pittman this week after not having him last week. They also just got back Jonathan Taylor last week and could get back Zack Moss this week. Give me the OVER.

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Ray Monohan

UNDER 44 Titans/Texans -108

Sunday in Houston, we have the Titans (5-10, 6-8-1 ATS, 1-6 AWAY) facing off against the Texans (8-7, 5-3 HOME, 7-8 ATS). Last week, the Titans stuck to their ground-and-pound philosophy against the Seahawks. IMO that approach plays right into the Texans' defensive strengths. Houston held the Browns to a mere 54 rushing yards and ranks 6th in the NFL in limiting opponents to just 90 RUSH YPG. The only thing is, for the Titans to win they have to run the ball. I'll enjoy watching the seconds tik off the clock as Henry gets the ball 25x. The Texans are anxiously awaiting the return of star rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who I believe will be back in action. Offensively, Houston averages 21.8 PPG (15th), while Tennessee struggles at 18 PPG (27th). Defensively, both teams are close, with TENN allowing 21.4 PPG and HOU allowing 22 PPG. Notably, the Titans, even with Henry, are 31st in the NFL in the red zone and 28th on 3rd down conversions. To me, it looks like the Titans out of playoff contention are showing signs of fatigue. No gas left in the tank. Trends, for TEN the UNDER has hit in 5 of their L7 games in DEC, and for HOU the UNDER has hit in 8 of their L12, and 4 of their L5 vs. TENN. Plus the UNDER has hit in 7 of the Texans L10 vs. AFC South teams. I'm all over the UNDER in this one on Sunday. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Sunday 5* FREE NFL O/U Play

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Saints/Bucs Over 42

I've never liked Baker Mayfield. He's arrogant and has been a major disappointment in the NFL.

Until now.

I must credit Mayfield for playing his best football since entering the NFL six seasons ago as the No. 1 overall draft pick. During the last three weeks, Mayfield has completed 67.4 percent of his throws while accounting for nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Going by fantasy football measures, he's been the second-best quarterback during this span behind Lamar Jackson.

Expect Mayfield to keep producing. The Saints defense is down from previous seasons. New Orleans has mediocre statistics despite playing the easiest schedule. The Saints are in the bottom-five in sacks and are without their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. That should ensure strong performances from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Tampa Bay is averaging 31 points in its last three games going against the Falcons, Packers and Jaguars. The Buccaneers are averaging 393.5 yards in their last two games. Their offense is clicking. Rachaad White has emerged as a force in his second season. The Saints faced two good offenses in their last four games - the Rams and Lions. They surrendered 33 points to the Lions and 30 to the Rams.

I haven't been a big Derek Carr fan either. But he also should fare well in this matchup. The Buccaneers are down defensively from previous seasons. They rank last in pass defense and won't have cornerback Carlton Davis, who is out with a concussion.

Carr has weapons to go after the Buccaneers with Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, underrated Rashid Shaheed and a healthy-again Tayson Hill.

This is a battle for first place in the NFC South Division so both teams figure to be pulling out all the stops, not afraid to take chances.

Speaking of Shaheed, he's a player I targeted for a prop bet. I have Shaheed Over 37 1/2 receiving yards. Bookmakers know how good Olave is. Shaheed is below the radar. The Saints finally gave Shaheed heavy minutes against the Rams last week. He played on 82 percent of the Saints' offensive snaps and was targeted nine times, catching five passes for 70 yards. Shaheed has five receptions of 40 or more yards, which is the most in the league. Now he's going against a weaker secondary than the Rams.

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Rob Vinciletti

The NFL Comp play is on SF -14 at 1 eastern. Look for the Niners to bounce back here off the blowout home loss to Baltimore last week. Today they fit a nice week 17 specific system that has cashed all 7 times since 2000 and pertains to large favorites who had several turnovers the prior week and are taking on a losing Non Divisional opponent. Washington made a huge come back after getting down big vs the Jets last week only to get beat at the end on a game winning field goal. This is a bad let down spot against a team that may look to win big. Play on the Niners. On Sunday a huge card is up with several top plays. Jump on now as Rob ends the year big. For the Comp play. Go with SF. RV-

SU:7-0-0

ATS: 7-0-0

Dec 30, 2001viewSunday172001RamsColtshome7-728-70-37-042-17-13.059.02512.00.06.0-6.0WWP0

Dec 27, 2003viewSaturday172003EaglesCommandersaway7-014-77-03-031-7-7.541.02416.5-3.06.8-9.8WWU0

Dec 28, 2003viewSunday172003ChiefsBearshome0-014-07-310-031-3-7.545.02820.5-11.04.8-15.8WWU0

Dec 28, 2008viewSunday172008SteelersBrownshome0-014-03-014-031-0-11.533.03119.5-2.08.8-10.8WWU0

Dec 28, 2014viewSunday172014BroncosRaidershome10-710-010-717-047-14-16.049.03317.012.014.5-2.5WWO0

Dec 30, 2018viewSunday172018ChiefsRaidershome14-07-37-07-035-3-14.553.03217.5-15.01.2-16.2WWU0

Dec 29, 2019viewSunday172019FortyninersSeahawksaway10-03-06-77-1426-21-3.546.051.51.01.2-0.2WWO0

Dec 31, 2023viewSunday172023FortyninersCommandersaway-14.049.5

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On UMKC vs St. Thomas under 132.5 -105

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Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on UMKC +8.5 -115

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Mike Lundin

Steelers/Seahawks Free Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a 33-11 win over Seattle, but they had been held to 18 points or fewer in their previous five games.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off back-to-back 20-17 wins over Philadelphia and Tennessee.

I would not be all that surprised if we see another 20-17 scoreline when they host Pittsburgh on New Year's Eve.

Under is 9-3 in Seahawks last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

2* FREE PICK ON THE UNDER 41

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Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Chargers+3.5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Chargers+3.5

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ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven NFL Free Pick: Bengals+6.5 -105

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind.

Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Cincinnati Bengals as an underdog at Kansas City on New Year's Eve. Last week's dud in Pittsburgh aside, the Bengals have adjusted well to the loss of injured star QB Joe Burrow while the Chiefs have hard a hard time covering spreads, or even winning outright, as favorites.

Supporting trends: Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Chiefs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Bengals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog.