3-20-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Bob Balfe

NCAA Basketball
Cornell/Missouri Over 146
East Tennessee State +20 over Pittsburgh
Wake Forest -8 over Cleveland State
Morehead State +21 over Louisville
Boston College +2.5 over USC
Ohio State -3 over Siena
Utah State/Marquette over 142

[Guest]

Re: 3-20-09

Billy Coleman

4* Jazz Over 199.5
4* Louisville -21
4* Wake Foest -8
3* North Dakota St. +9.5
3* Dayton +9
3* Florida St. -2.5
3* Auburn -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

vegas-runner | CBB Total Double-Dime Bet


828 Syracuse / 827 S.F.Austin Under 131.0 BetUS
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **

Bodog is using 132...VR

Fri, 03/20/09 - 12:25 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet
837 Tennessee -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 838 Oklahoma St.
Analysis: *** NCAABB 3* BEST BET (LATE STEAM) ***

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Scott Rickenbach’s March Madness Game #829 – 1* (regular play) Temple Owls (+) vs Arizona State @ 2:45 PM ET – We have watched this line climb all the way from 4.5 up to a 6 and this is giving some big value to the underdog Owls. The Sun Devils have trouble creating separation from teams because they’re not a big scoring team. They rely heavily on their defense. Their only truly big scorer is James Harden as Jeff Pendergraph is quite inconsistent (four field goals or less in four of their last eight games). Also, we love the fact that everybody is siding with the big Pac Ten team here while a dangerous Atlantic Ten team is essentially getting no respect. Keep in mind, Temple knocked off Xavier and Tennessee this season and they do a very good job of harassing opponents and disrupting their offensive flow. They are a solid rebounding club thanks in particular to the big contributions of 6’9 Lavoy Allen. Also, Dionte Christmas is definitely capable of matching the Sun Devils Harden point for point. While the Sun Devils are relatively young, the Owls are loaded with veteran leadership and are looking for redemption after getting bumped in the first round by Michigan State last season. For Arizona State, they have not been to the Big Dance in six years! The Owls veteran leadership is a big reason why Temple won all four of their overtime games this season. They do have a knack for winning the close ones and they also finished the season with a ton of momentum. Temple is 17-5 in their last 22 games and all five losses came by a single digit margin. The Sun Devils are simply going to struggle to build any type of margin here. Arizona State also has had the wind taken out of their sails twice lately. They lost three straight games very late in the regular season. Then they blew their game against USC in the Pac Ten Tournament Championship Game. Herb Sendek is an excellent coach but his team’s confidence is a little shaken at this point while the Owls come in flying high! Grab the line value and the momentum with the boys from Philly here. Play Temple plus the points as a regular selection

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

EZ Winners

2* Oklahoma State +2
2* North Dakota State +9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Raptors -1
3* Wolves/Rockets under 193
5* Kings/Knicks over 225

NCAA:

3* Tenn/Ok State over 156
5* AZ/Utah under 134
6* USC -2.5
6* WVU -9
7* FSU -2 -120
9* Stephen F Austin/Cuse over 130

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Ferrringo

6-Unit Play. Take #850 Marquette (-4.5) over Utah State (12:30 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Note: This is my Game of the Month.

This play is all about value and all about going against the public. And I don't know about now, but that's what March used to be all about. The Golden Eagles have been completely written off without Dominic James. However, I still see a talented and experienced core of seniors that don't want to go down without a fight. With the exception of the first half against Villanova this team played well in The Garden. And even though they have been on a savage slide, let's look at who they are losing to - Pitt, Louisville, Connecticut, Syracuse and Villanova. Has Utah State played anyone even close to the caliber of that? I don't think so. I'm a big fan of the WAC and I can say that it was the weakest this year that I've seen it in a decade. Utah State played a terrible nonconference schedule and a weak conference schedule, and the last time they stepped out to face someone they got rocked by a St. Mary's team that is in the NIT. I love the pressure that Marquette can put on the perimeter, and if McNeal and/or Matthews is on today this one could be ugly. I think that the Golden Eagles are undervalued at the moment as nearly 70 percent of the action is on the Aggies today. I'd like to see the public get humbled today and watch everyone kick themselves for missing out on this mismatch.

4-Unit Play. Take Stephen F. Austin (+12) over Syracuse (12:15 p.m., Friday, March 20)
I just think that there are a lot of reasons why this is a really sharp play and this was the first matchup that jumped out at me when I saw the lines. And not just because I'm a Syracuse fan. The dreaded noon tip in quintessential letdown spot for SU after their amazing MSG run. They are playing some "who?" team. The Orange face the No. 1 field goal defense in the country and a team whose adjusted tempo is No. 300 (of 342), which means they could grind the Orange down.
Further, the Southland Conference teams are 3-0 ATS in L3 tournaments and Syracuse (for some reason) never plays well in Florida. Everyone (in SU Nation) is already looking ahead to Arizona State, Oklahoma and North Carolina in our bracket. Makes it a “Letdown/Look Ahead" spot. Syracuse is just 22-37 ATS as a double-digit favorite dating back to 2003. There are four three-year starters on senior-laden team that has gone 50-13 over the last two years.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #830 Arizona State (-5.5) over Temple (2:45 p.m., Friday, March 20)
I'm backing James Harden and a handful of systems that suggest that the Sun Devils will overperform their seed. Playing No. 6 seeds after a loss is 26-15-1 ATS in the past several tournaments.

2-Unit Play. Take #838 Oklahoma State (+2) over Tennessee (Noon, Friday, March 20)
I'm not big into the SEC and I'm not big into teams that don't care of the ball. I konw that Oklahoma State is a turnover waiting to happen, but playing on higher seeds as underdogs has been a solid 14-7 ATS in recent years.

2-Unit Play. Take #826 Wake Forest (-8) over Cleveland State (9:40 p.m., Friday, March 20)
The same systems that were at play in the Washington winner that we rolled out yesterday are at work here. It's all about No. 4 seeds that are off an upset loss in their conference tournamand and going against dogs of 3.0 or more after an upset win of 6.0 or more in their own conference tournament. That last system alone is 43-21 ATS over the last 12 years. My initial thought was Cleveland State, a team that I like a lot. But I also thought Mississippi State would put up a fight yesterday to, so we're going to trust the system.

2-Unit Play. Take #852 Florida State (-2.5) over Wisconsin (9:55 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Yesterday we missed our ACC-over-the-Big 10 play but I think that we are going to get this one. How much gas does FSU have left in the tank after their run in Atlanta? I'm not sure, but I think they have enough to take down this Badgers team. FSU has been banging heads with top-tier ACC teams all season long and has proven itself against better competition. I love Bo Ryan. I do. But I think that after a few tourney snubs over the last two years Toney Douglas and Co. are ready to unload.

2-Unit Play. Take #833 Siena (+3) over Ohio State (9:40 p.m., Friday, March 20)
I'll take the short line on a team that was in the Sweet 16 last year. Siena was a team that was humbled earlier in the year with an overambitious schedule. Also, they just were not knocking down outside shots earlier in the season. But this is a veteran squad with a lot of options and I think that they are going to raise their game today.

2-Unit Play. Take #847 Cornell (+13) over Missouri (3 p.m., Friday, March 20)
A lot of the systems that were at work in the Memphis game yesterday are at play in this game. Basically, it's about fading teams that made strong ATS runs in their conference tournaments, teams that are heavy favorites off three or more straight wins, and playing on double-digit underdogs that were in the tournament last year. No. 3 seeds off back-to-back wins or more are just 4-14 ATS in the last 12 years. We'll go against the "hot" team and see if Cornell can handle the pressure.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #844 Kansas (-9.5) over North Dakota State (12:30 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Again, there are just a load of systems at work here that suggest a bounceback performance by the higher seed. Playing on teams that were No. 1 seeds in their conference tournaments that were upset in those tourneys (a la Washington) have been a strong, strong play in the past decade. Again, the public is all over NDSU so we're going to go the other way.

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 128 Dayton vs. West Virginia (3 p.m., Friday, March 20)


1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 122.5 Wisconsin vs. Florida State (9:55 p.m., Friday, March 20)


Today's Teasers:
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #826 Wake Forest (-3) over Cleveland State (9:40 p.m.) AND Take #846 West Virginia (-4) over Dayton (3 p.m., Friday, March 20)


2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Stephen F. Austin (+17) over Syracuse (12:15 p.m.) AND Take #842 Boston College (+7.5) over USC (7:20 p.m.)


1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #833 Siena (+8) over Ohio State (9:40 p.m.) AND Take #844 Kansas (-4.5) over North Dakota State (12:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

NSA's Selection
CBB Tennesse vs Oklahoma St 12:25 PM EST 20* OVER 156.5
CBB Utah St vs Marquette 12:30 PM EST 20* Utah St +4.5
CBB North Dakota St vs Kansas 12:30 PM EST 20* North Dakota St +10
CBB Stephen F Austin vs Syracuse 12:15 PM EST 10* Syracuse -11.5
CBB Dayton vs West Virginia 3:00 PM EST 10* West Virginia -9
CBB Arizona St vs Temple 2:45 PM EST (Opinion) Temple +5.5
CBB East Tenn St vs Pittsburgh 2:55 PM EST (Opinion) Pittsburgh -19.5
CBB Cornell vs Missouri 3:00 PM EST (Opinion) Missouri -12.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Handicapper: Matt Fargo Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Temple Owls @ Arizona State Sun Devils - Friday March 20, 2009 2:45 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Arizona State Sun Devils -5.5 (-110)



It has been six years since Arizona St. last made a trip to the NCAA tournament and it is not going to go out early as this team has the makeup of making a big run. It is obviously one game at a time but the Sun Devils got a very good draw in the South Region. A win here likely sets up a game against Syracuse and it is anyone’s guess how the Orange are going to react after their marathon trip to through the Big East Tournament. A possible showdown with Oklahoma looms in the Sweet 16 but first things first and that is taking out a Temple team what won the Atlantic Ten Tournament and likely would not be here if not for that. Arizona St. players obviously have no experience on this stage but that should not be a detriment. The Sun Devils head coach Herb Sendek has plenty of experience from his days at NC State and Miami Ohio where he guided the Wolfpack and RedHawks to six tournament appearances, going 6-6 and most importantly, 5-1 in first round games. The Sun Devils went 9-5 against this year's NCAA field and Sendek said he thinks that's enough to overcome their lack of postseason experience. Arizona St. has a very important asset to be successful in the tournament and that is strengths both inside and outside. It has the very versatile James Harden, who will make many first-team All-America lists, as well as the nation's most accurate shooter in Jeff Pendergraph. Both teams put up solid numbers in their conference runs and Temple is no doubt a very hot team right now. However, comparing the Atlantic Ten to the Pac Ten is like comparing a Jeep to a Hummer. It is nice and efficient but not nearly as strong. The Pac Ten is ranked in the top three conferences while the Atlantic Ten is well below that, coming in anywhere between 8th and 10th, in the same line as the MVC and C-USA who each got just one team into the tournament. The Sun Devils have advantages in two key areas and those are complimentary throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. Those margins are even bigger when looking at the last five games of each team and that is with Temple victorious all five of those. The Owls win over Xavier was a solid win but you have to go all the way back to December to see their last quality win and hat was a victory over Tennessee, arguably one of the bigger disappointments in the country this season. Those were the only two wins over tournament teams as they went 0-4 in the other games against other teams in the field. For the season, Arizona St. went 10-6 against the nation’s top 50 including 4-2 against the top 25 while Temple went just 2-4 against the top 50 and 1-4 against the top 25. Arizona St. is 8-2 ATS this season when coming off a non-cover and it falls into a solid situation. Play on teams from the six major conferences when playing against a team not from those six conferences when favored between 3.5 and 9.5 points and coming off a conference loss. These play-on teams are 45-17 ATS over the last 12 years including a 17-5 ATS mark over the last five years. The Sun Devils will prove to be too much for the Owls on Friday. 3* Arizona St. Sun Devils

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Kings/Pens over 6

Game 2 - Red Wings/Thrashers over 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

DOC

5 ARIZONA STATE
4 kansas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Michael Cannon

30 Dime –

OKLAHOMA STATE

Take Oklahoma State as the small dog over Tennessee in the first round of the East Regional.

I haven’t trusted the Vols all season long and I’m not about to hop on their bandwagon now. Tennessee simply hasn’t lived up to its potential and they’re going to be in for a huge surprise today against an Oklahoma State team that was red-hot down the stretch.

The Cowboys won six of their last seven to close out the regular season, going 7-0 ATS. They reached the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament before losing to Missouri.

I love the tempo Oklahoma State plays and they are also a very dangerous perimeter team. If they’re able to extend the Vols defense that will help neutralize the frontcourt combination of Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism.

Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Big 12, 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine as an NCAA tournament chalk and 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 9-1 in their last 10 overall and 16-7-2 in their last 25 neutral-site games.

Take the points with Oklahoma State as they get it done over Tennessee.

5 Dime –

UTAH STATE

Take the points with Utah State in the West Regional over Marquette.

Much has been made of Marquette’s struggles down the stretch after losing senior point guard Dominic James. His absence has left a glaring hole in the Golden Eagles lineup and I expect Utah State to give Marquette a serious run here as a result.

It’s not like the Aggies are some overmatched little school here. They won 30 games this season and knocked off host Nevada in the Western Athletic Conference title game.

Utah State enters this game on a 4-0 SU run, and five of its last six wins were double-digit routs in WAC play.

Marquette is on ATS slides of 4-7 overall, 1-4 as a chalk and 1-4-1 in non-conference play. Utah State is on positive ATS runs of 10-4 in non-conference action, 9-3 at neutral sites, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-1 as a neutral-site dog.

Give the Aggies the venue edge as well, as this game is being played in Boise.

Take the points with Utah State as they have a good chance at pulling off the outright win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Maddux Sports

Hockey

#55 - NHL - 3 units on Los Angeles +240

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Lenny Del Genio

UTAH STATE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-20-09

Matt Fagro

8* NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *23-14 RUN*

Philadelphia at Golden State
Play: Philadelphia -1

As expected, the Sixers put up a dud against Phoenix the night after defeating the Lakers on a last second three-pointer. I had no interest in grabbing the points against the Suns and also had no interest in putting down seven points on Phoenix despite the probably letdown effect. Philadelphia has how had a day to regroup and we will see a fully focused team tonight. The New Year started slow for Philadelphia with consecutive losses to Dallas and San Antonio but on January 6th, the Sixers started to get things rolling. A seven-game winning streak ensued and since then, they have gone a solid 21-11 to completely turn around what was thought to have been a lost season. The loss of Elton Brand was thought to be devastating at the time but Philadelphia has been more than fine. In the 29 games he played this season, the Sixers went 13-16. In the 37 games he has been absent, they have gone 21-16. It may be coincidental or that other players step up in but either way, this is a team to be on the look out for as there is some great balance and team chemistry working right now. The Sixers are far from out of the woods however as they are currently sitting in the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference but are just five games away from falling into ninth place because of that horrible start that cost head coach Maurice Cheeks his job. They are a game and a half behind Miami for the fifth spot and that is a coveted slot right now as the first round matchup will be Atlanta as opposed to facing either Boston or Orlando is the opening round of the playoffs. Letdowns seem to be common place following games against Los Angeles and tonight, the shoe goes on the other foot. Golden St. is coming off a game last night against the Lakers and even though it lost, it was a close game throughout and the Warriors put in a big effort against their division rivals. The Warriors have been playing better as they have won three of their last four games at home but two of those came against the Clippers and Nets so I am not sold on how strong their home court is currently looking. Philadelphia is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games coming off a road loss. When playing on no rest or extended rest of three or more days, the Sixers are 7-18 ATS but everything in-between has been fine, going 23-15-3 ATS when playing on one or two days of rest. 8* Philadelphia 76ers