9-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Vegas Runner

Jets - triple dime
Redskins - 2* personal play
UNDER Bills 51 - 2* late steam
Rams - 3* underdog of the week
2* teaser - Tampa Bay +13, Minnesota pick

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Al DeMarco

Sunday's Play
15 Dime - Minnesota



San Francisco might be 2-0, but consider this important factor: In beating Arizona and Seattle, the Niners took advantage of defenses that were ranked 19th and 30th in the league a year ago. Today's opponent offers a much stiffer challenge as Minnesota fielded the NFL's No. 6 stop unit last season.



Also, consider how the Niners won those first two games. In their opener at Arizona, it was more a case of the Cardinals losing than the Niners winning as Kurt Warner's offense was out of synch practically the entire game. Plus, Frank Gore was pretty much ineffective with only 30 yards gained. Now last week against Seattle, Gore returned to the forefront of the San Francisco attack, taking advantage of pourous Seahawks defense, shredding it for 207 of his team's 256 rushing yards.



Earlier I noted Minnesota was ranked No. 6 in the league last season in total defense, but in terms of stopping the run, the Vikings are # 1 in the NFL from 2006 through 2008. Gore, who is bothered by a sprained ankle suffered late in last week's action, is not going to find the big holes he plowed through versus the Seahawks.



Of course the big story in this contest is the Minnesota home debut of Brett Favre. Has the future Hall of Famer done much this year? Well, other than complete 77% of his passes, most of the short and medium length variety (none longer than 21 yards), the answer would be "No." But Favre hasn't had to resort to his gunslinger ways since he has Adrian Peterson (league-leading 272 yards rushing) in the backfield powering one of the league's most feared ground games.



Many will point toward Minnesota's slow start last week at Detroit as a problem in this contest. And perhaps that is the reason we're getting exceptional line value. It is true the Vikings trailed early 10-0 as the Lions held an 11-2 advantage in first downs and a 165-37 edge in total yards. But from that point forward, Minny dominated, outscoring Detroit 27-3 while outgaining the Lions 228-100 in total yards. And all Favre did was go 23-for-27 for 155 yards and two TDs.



By the way, Favre is 8-1 SU lifetime against San Francisco, and he won four of his final five Metrodome starts as a member of the Packers.





Note: This line has been a steady -7 for days as I post this play Saturday around 2:00 P.M. Eastern.



If it stays at -7, or moves to -7 1/2, in either case I would buy down the 1/2 point. Thus, in the Vikings only win by a touchdown, you either get the win or the push