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Re: 10-10-09
Tim Trushel
SanJose St./20*
Illinois / reg.
Indiana/reg.
Smu / reg.
Tim Trushel
SanJose St./20*
Illinois / reg.
Indiana/reg.
Smu / reg.
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Comment
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Re: 10-10-09
Bryan Leonard 10/10
BRYAN LEONARD'S SATURDAY NCAA TOTAL DOMINATION
325/326 Miami Ohio at Northwestern
The Redhawk offense which was shut out twice to start the season is showing signs of progress. At the forefront is freshman QB Zac Dysert who started the last two weeks against Kent State and Cincinnati. Dysert is averaging a full 1.2 yards per passing attempt more than season opening starter Daniel Raudabaugh with a quarterback rating of 20 points higher. While the season to date offensive numbers for Miami look weak keep in mind they have faced the terrific defenses of Kentucky, Boise State and Cincinnati. Against Western Michigan and Kent State the offense looked fluid and this Northwestern stop unit hasn't shown the ability to resemble the big three defenses Miami faced earlier. Defensively Miami has really struggled. The opposition has dominated field position in every game this season. Miami's opponents have started their drives on average at their own 36, 41, 49, 47 and 35 yard line. Keep in mind the FBS average is 31 yards. With Miami allowing 6.1, 7.5 and 7.1 yards per play against non-MAC opposition the Wildcats could be in for a record setting offensive performance.
Northwestern has put up 24 points or more in every game this season. Over their last 20 home games they have averaged 27.4 points per game. If you throw out the two times they hosted Ohio State when they were held to 10 points a game you really see how explosive this team has been at Ryan Field Stadium. Defensively the Wildcats have allowed the questionable offenses of Eastern Michigan, Syracuse and Minnesota put up an average of 32 points per game against them.
Miami's offense is on the rise and this Northwestern defense has shown no inclination to slow them down. That said, Miami's defense is allowing 5.28 yards per carry and 7.07 yards per pass attempt. With conference games on tap for both these squads look for the offenses to pad their stats as this one flies over the posted total.
PLAY OVERComment
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Re: 10-10-09
mike handzelek 10/10/09
Saturday, October 10, 2009 Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Houston U vs. Mississippi St (NCAAF) - 12:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-110 Mississippi St Play Title: Matador Defense Exposed Plus 24-0 System
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The most alarming fact in UTEP's 58-41 thumping of Houston is not the score. It definitely is the 305 yards rushing the Miners unleashed upon the matador defense of the Cougars. Today, they face a Mississippi State squad that should of upended L.S.U. a few weeks back. Houston does have a prolific passer in Case Keenum with a nice 13/2 TD/INT ratio but the pass defense he's up against limits opponents to 49% completions & 191 passing yards per game. When he entertains for the third staright week in Davis Wade Stadium @ Scott Field in Starkville, Mullen & his Dogs' are a solid 5-2 ATS. Now let's look at the seal this deal conference versus conference amazing fact. In the last 24 games Conference USA teams tangled with teams from the SEC, it's resulted in a 0-24 record for Conference USA. Despite losing line value from the opening mark, we're sticking with the Dogs'. The Mississippi State defense wins this one so our Matador Defense Exposed Plus 24-0 System says to put $200 on the Bulldogs.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek North Texas vs. UL Lafayette (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-103 North Texas Play Title: Not Worthy False Favorite With 15-2 System
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The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have had time to think coming off a bye week & are now set to take on The North Texas Eagles (I think I like their old Mean Green nickname better)@ Cajun Field in Lafayette. The problem here is with laying any kind of points with a team that plainly can't score. Against lined teams this season, they are averaging a super-anemic 6.67 PPG. We can't overlook non-opportunistic stat of -6 in turnovers the last 3 games put up by Louisiana-Lafayette. On the other side of the ball, North Texas QB Riley Dodge put up 313 yards passing while running for 57 himself against Middle Tennessee State. Don't forget that teams with 17 returning starters installed as a dog who face an opponent off back-to-back losses are 15-2 ATS away from home. We think this dog is clearly barking out loud as are Not Worthy False Favorite With 15-2 System play says to put up $200 on the Eagles of North Texas & let's buy to + 7 1/2 as we cash in this dog at OUR number.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek East Carolina vs. SMU (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-104 SMU Play Title: Out Of Gas & On The Road In A Flat Spot
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This title fits to the tee none other than Skip Holtz' Pirates of East Carolina. This happens to be the Pirates 4th road game in 5 weeks as they take on June Jones' charges @ Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. The Pirates are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS as road favorites of more than 6 and have now lost 12 of 18 ATS going back to the beginning of last year. June Jones has the surface edge taking on East Carolina who have natural grass @ Dowdy-Ficklin Stadium. The Ponies were young last season but now return 16 starters including 51 letterman to the roster & are ready to make a little noise in Conference-USA action. A big factor in the Mustangs 2 wins this season has been Miami transfer Shawnbrey McNeal in the backfield. They've beaten a good UAB team on the road and should have the home crowd riled up after not having a home game for over a month. June Jones always has a master gameplan awaiting through the air as he did @ Hawaii. I expect to utilize it when situations permit against a defense of East Carolina rated 118th in pass defense efficiency in Division I-A. Speaking of "D", S.M.U. has a defense rated #1 in interceptions with 12 thus far and that's good enough for us to pull the trigger on the Mustangs as our Out Of Gas & On The Road In A Flat Spot play. Be happy & buy to + 7 1/2 & put up $200 on S.M.U.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Michigan vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -8/-106 Iowa Play Title: Running Game Stuffer Play
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The Michigan Wolverines have shown a little dependency on their run game. Word to your mother--Kirk Ferentz's crew are excellent run stuffers as they proved twice against Penn State in back-to-back years. You have that perfect setup here with Frosh Baby QB Tate Forcier invading tough Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City with no maturity in his resume'. The result will be turnovers as Michigan digs a whole they won't get out of by the 4th quarter. They've been fortunate enough by playing & winning 4 straight @ Ann Arbor. What happened when they go on the road for the first time? They lose to the Spartans and give up over 400 yards of total offense. If the Spartans found a way to control the Wolverines, think what Iowa will do. Michigan is giving up 31 PPG against legitimate opponents. Coach Rich Rodriguez is a putrid 1-10 ATS versus teams that have defenses who hold their opponents to 2 TD's or less. On the other side of the ball, QB Rick Stanzi seems to have the experience needed to take the Hawkeyes one step further. This is that perfect time for a statement to be made by Iowa that they may still be around for a Big Ten title game come November 14th when they invade Ohio Stadium in Columbus. Remember the Hawkeyes have been limping the last few games and now, Tony Moeaki, Bryan Bulaga & Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are ready with guns blazin'. Iowa has delivered BIG as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points going a red-hot 10-2 against the number. The bottom line says if the Spartans can run stuff Michigan & hold them to under 30 yards on the ground, Iowa will also be up to the task. Iowa goes and gets their 10th win a row as they pull away in the 4th quarter and chew up Michigan's desperation. Our Running Game Stuffer Play is to take the Iowa Hawkeyes for $200 but buy to -6 1/2.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Arizona U vs. Washington U (NCAAF) - 10:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-109 Arizona U Play Title: Running On Fumes Play
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The Washington Huskies put a lot into that upset of USC and even more losing to Notre Dame on the road last week. They fit nicely into this system. When an overtime loser allows 35 or more points and are at home, they've gone a ticket-ripping 12-32-1 ATS. The Huskies go up against an Arizona team who already rushed for 900 yards winning 3 of their first 4 games. The Cats' are salivating after watching game film showing Notre Dame's 530 yards of total offense against the Huskies. Arizona's QB change to Nick Foles has been a change for the better as he was 25 of 34 for 254 yards & 3 TD's with no INT's versus Oregon State. We like the fact that the Wildcats had 2 weeks to prepare for this one and are up aginst a team that's running on fumes. In The Stats (ITS) shows Arizona dominating opponents to the tune of 412-288 total yards advantage. This is partly due to a very beefy offensive line that averages 6'5" & 313 pounds. The bottom line says Arizona is 6-0 their last 6 trips to Husky Stadium in Seattle and will win this one in a hard-fought game in the trenches. Smash-mouth football belongs to the Cats' as our Running On Fumes play says to take the Arizona Wildcats & buy down to -2 1/2 for $200.Comment
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Re: 10-10-09
Jim Feist's 20-Star Mountain West Conference Game of the Year!CF (379) TCU VS (380) AIR FORCE
Take: 20-Star (379) TCU
Reason: Mountain West Game of the Year: TCU.
It’s never easy to prepare for the Air Force ground attack, but TCU has experience: These teams met last season and the Frogs rolled, 44-10! TCU (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has a powerful ground game of its own (200 yds rushing pg) and a fierce defense, just like last year. Coach Gary Patterson likes offensive balance and has a veteran attack with junior QB Andy Dalton (6 TDs, 2 picks, playing since his freshman season) and RB Joseph Turner. The defense dominated in a 14-10 win at Clemson. The Air Force Falcons come off a disheartening 16-13 OT loss to rival Navy. "We came here to win the football game. We did not do it. Physically, that was an extraordinary football game." TCU has the run defense to contain Air Force. Play TCU!
Jim Feist's Inner Circle Game of the Month - Saturday!CF (335) NEW MEXICO VS (336) WYOMING
Take: 5-Star (336) WYOMING
Reason: Inner Circle Game of the Month: Wyoming. Wyoming (3-2) is playing decent for new head coach in Dave Christensen, who is demanding more physical play. They come home from a long road trip to Florida International last week, a 30-28 comeback. Christensen has brought in a no-huddle, up-tempo, spread offense, but he has no QB stablity. They have rotated QBs freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels (3 TDs, 1 pick) and senior Karsten Sween. New Mexico (0-5 SU/1-4 ATS) has been terrible under new coach Mike Locksley, a better recruiter than Xs and Os guy and it shows during their 0-5 start. They had a frustrating 20-17 home loss to rival New Mexico State, allowing a TD with 39 seconds left. The home team has far too much offense. Play Wyoming.Comment
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Re: 10-10-09
Randall the Handle
Duke +15½ over N.C. STATE
Duke Football isn’t exactly synonymous with success but getting 15½-points to a mediocre team like North Carolina State will always get my attention. The numbers for Duke the past five seasons are downright horrifying but this year’s team already has two wins but more importantly can actually score some points. Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis has played in every game with the Blue Devils since 2006 and has a legitimate shot of playing in the NFL. Lewis has a 7-2 touchdown to interception ratio and last week against #5 Virginia Tech, Lewis passed for 359 yards and almost led Duke to a stunning upset of the Hokies. An elite college quarterback like Lewis can do wonders for a team like Duke and this season the offense is clicking like never before. Through five games, Duke is averaging 28.4 points a game and leads the ACC in passing yards, a remarkable achievement for a team that won a combined five games from 2006 to 2008. North Carolina State meanwhile is 3-2 with their big win coming over Pittsburgh in Week 4. North Carolina State coach Tom O’Brien was hired from Boston College and after two seasons has an 11-14 coaching record and does not have a top 25 recruiting class to his credit. O’Brien inherited arguably the best quarterback in the ACC in Russell Wilson and frankly that’s why his record isn’t worse. Wilson will lead the Wolfpack to points against Duke but it’s the North Carolina State defense that ultimately will allow Duke to stay in the game. North Carolina State saw a passing offense for the first time last week and allowed Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner to throw for 360 yards and three touchdowns. Wake Forest is a good comparison to the Duke offense because Duke has almost no running game and will throw the ball regardless of the score. North Carolina State has better overall talent but after last week’s game Duke has shown it can hang with anybody in the ACC. North Carolina State certainly isn’t a team you can feel comfortable with laying better than two touchdowns, as its coaching is subpar and their defense struggles stopping the pass. Take the points and a Duke team that absolutely believes they can win this game. Play: #315 Duke +15½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Ohio -3.5 over AKRON
Akron’s season was thrown a major wrench when the school dismissed third year starter Chris Jacquemain for the entire season. For MAC schools like Akron, stability at the quarterback position is so important and switching mid-season almost always has disastrous results. Matt Rodgers, Jacquemain’s replacement, has been dreadful so far, throwing for a measly 292 yards and four interceptions in two losses to Indiana and Central Michigan. Rodgers had never played a snap before these games and it’s safe to say he is totally unprepared to be a starter at the Division 1 level. Ohio isn’t a team with extraordinary talent but didn’t embarrass themselves against BCS opponents Tennessee and Connecticut earlier in the season. Ohio is led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, who has taken Ohio to a bowl game and is 17-16 in conference play since 2005. After employing the dreaded two-quarterback system for the first two weeks of the season, Senior Theo Scott won the job and has performed decently since. But this play really isn’t about Ohio. It’s about catching a team in disarray in Akron that will struggle mightily to win another game this season. This is a team that is dead last in the MAC in passing yards, can’t run the ball and gives up 30 points a game. Coach JD Brookhart was asked about the team’s morale and answered: “The psyche of the team is fine.” I call hogwash on that front and the fact he has any confidence in Quarterback Rodgers. It won’t be long before bettors will have to lay close to two touchdowns to bet against this team. Cash in now before the oddsmakers realize how bad a football team Akron really is. Play: #361 Ohio -3.5 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Soccer
World Cup Qualifier
USA +2.10 over HONDURAS
The USA can clinch a place in next year’s World Cup with a road victory in Honduras, which should be a tight match. Honduras will also be looking to claim all three points but are in tough against a very good American side which boasts a mix of MLS stars and players currently playing in Europe. The US will most likely start the match taking a cautious approach as they will expect Honduras to come out strong in front of their supporters, however, the Americans are a very good counter attacking side and will do that in this match to claim a narrow victory. Sure the Americans will be without star striker Clint Dempsey but they have plenty of cover in his absence, as this American side is deep. Look for USA to clinch a place in next year’s World Cup with a solid road victory over Honduras at a very generous price to boot. Play: USA +2.10 (Risking 2 units).
World Cup Qualifier
England +1.55 over UKRAINE
England has long qualified for the 2010 World Cup but that has not stopped them from playing their best squad, as will be the case here in Ukraine. Head Coach Fabio Capello will play his strongest team, as England attempts to go perfect in the qualifying round. They currently stand at eight wins and zero losses. England is firing on all cylinders and quite frankly is just too good a side for a desperate Ukraine to cope with. Ukraine needs this win if they have any hope of qualifying, as they currently sit in third place two points behind second place Croatia. Being desperate doesn’t translate to automatic wins especially when playing a powerhouse like England. England, who missed out competing in the European Championship a few year’s ago, are out to put the rest of the world on notice that they are once again a force to be reckoned with and one of the early favorites heading into next year’s World Cup in South Africa. Play: England +1.55 (Risking 2 units)Comment
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Re: 10-10-09
Dominic Fazzini Saturday's plays 20 Dime -- WYOMING (minus points vs. New Mexico)
10 Dime -- TCU (minus points vs. AIR FORCE)
WYOMING
Since first-year coach Dave Christensen inserted freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels into the starting lineup, the Cowboys' offense has taken off.
Carta-Samuels has completed 53 of 75 passes (71 percent) for 457 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games with just one interception, and Wyoming has scored 30 points in each of those games, beating UNLV 30-27 in Laramie and winning 30-28 at Florida Atlantic.
New Mexico, meanwhile, is having problems, losing all five of its games. The Lobos are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, 1-4 ATS in conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
First-year coach Mike Locksley is already taking a lot of heat for the team's performance, and he recently was reprimanded for fighting with an assistant coach. Under Locksley, New Mexico is scoring just under 15 points per game while allowing 38.
The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS this year, including 2-0 at home and 2-0 with Carta-Samuels as their starting QB.
The betting trends in this matchup don't favor Wyoming, as the Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Laramie.
But the Cowboys are surging under their new coach and freshman QB, while the Lobos could be looking at a winless season. Take Wyoming to cover the points today.
TCU
The Horned Frogs have a BCS bowl in their sites, and they're not about to take any team for granted right now, not even a weak Air Force squad.
TCU's defense gets most of the credit for the team's strong play over the past two years, and it should as the unit has allowed 16 points or less in 11 straight Division I-A games and in 15 of 16 since the start of last season.
But the Frogs are also sound on offense, averaging 34.8 points per game and 220 yards rushing per game. Junior QB Andy Dalton has performed soundly, completing 68 percent of his passes for 814 yards and six touchdowns with just two interceptions.Comment
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