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Re: 11-1-09
A Redd
75 dimer
Sunday's Card
75-Dime Rams
A Redd
75 dimer
Sunday's Card
75-Dime Rams
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Re: 11-1-09
Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
50 Dime --- RAVENS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point down, whether your line is -3, -3 1/2 or even -4. those numbers are all key numbers in the NFL)
BALTIMORE RAVENS --- It's very rare you will see me follow up a 50-dime play on Sunday after I released one on Saturday, so that should tell you how much I love this game. I was absolutely ecstatic when I saw this line released with Baltimore as the favorite. Here we have an undefeated Denver team facing a Ravens team having lost three straight... and the Ravens are the favorites? You bet everyone is on the Broncos, and why shouldn't they be? Every week it seems as if we say, "this is the week Denver loses because they're really not that good." And every week the Broncos seem to prove the critics wrong, winning rather convincingly. Well, now it seems as if everyone has bought into the Denver Broncos... and if that isn't enough to scare you away from the Broncos, nothing will.
The Ravens are clearly better than their 3-3 record would indicate and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time. After starting the season firing on all cylinders (3-0 record), the Ravens have dropped three straight games, all by 6 points or less... so it's not like this team is getting blown off the field --- they've been very competitive in all 6 of their games this season. The two biggest shockers in Baltimore this season has to be the fact that this offense is 100x better than we thought it would be in the beginning of the season, but the defense hasn't been nearly as good as in past years... especially against the pass. What's going to be interesting to watch is the matchup between former Broncos CB Dominique Foxworth and WR Brandon Marshall. Foxworth spent the last few years in Denver, getting to work against Marshall in practice every day. As good as Marshall is, Foxworth knows his tendencies and should be able to do a good job of containing him.
I'm banking on the fact that Baltimore will keep Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter under wraps most of the game, forcing Kyle Orton to beat them on long second and third downs. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL in first down defense, and if they can play up to that level today, the Broncos will struggle on offense like they haven't struggled before. And please don't look at their recent game vs. San Diego as a measuring stick of how far this offense has come. Remember, Eddie Royal scored once on a punt return and once on a kick return, so their point total was a bit fabricated. I'm not saying they can't score on special teams again today, but the Ravens do a much better job than San Diego does in that department. Plus, I'm not sure it's fair to compare the Chargers pathetic defense with Baltimore's.
As for Baltimore's improved offense, it starts and stops with second-year QB Joe Flacco. As good as he was a rookie last year, leading his team to the AFC playoffs, Flacco has been even better this season hitting on 64% of his passes for 1674 yards and 11 TDs. Just the fact that Flacco has shown the ability to move the ball downfield with his arm has opened things up for RB Ray Rice. No one has been better than this guy over the last few weeks and there's nothing Denver's defense has shown me that would indicate they'll be able to slow Rice down. And the great thing about Rice and this offense is... if he's not getting the job done on the ground, they'll just turn him into a receiver out of the backfield --- instant offense. There is absolutely nothing Denver (or any other defense for that matter) will be able to do to stop Rice if he's clicking.
Denver's defense has been good all season and I'm not trying to take anything away from them, but they have yet to see a team that will rely on the screen pass as much as Baltimore has and will today. Now, if Baltimore lines up and tries to run the ball down Denver's throats... it's not going to work. But I have to believe Baltimore coaches and players used the week off to find every weakness this Denver defense has and exploit it.
Again, Baltimore has lost three straight. Can you really, honestly see them losing four in a row? I can't. Baltimore averages over 28 PPG at home while allowing just 14, and this team knows a loss today could prove devastating in the AFC North. Cincy and Pittsburgh are both 5-2 and a loss today for the Ravens would put them at 3-4, a full two games behind both teams. Baltimore is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams from the AFC. Denver is definitely capable of winning another road game here today, but obviously the "Cinderella run" has to end some time, and today is as good as any. Baltimore wins and delivers an ATS cover, 27-17.Comment
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Re: 11-1-09
Bob Balfe 11/01
NBA Basketball
Lakers -6.5 over Hawks
MLB Baseball
Phillies/Yankees Under 8.5
Sabathia/Blanton
NFL Football
Ravens -3.5 over Broncos
Baltimore has a great offense that has for the first time in team history has played better than their defense. The Broncos have covered every game this year and in the NFL that trend always finds away to even itself out. Look for the Ravens Defense to show up at home today. Take Baltimore.
Giants -1 over Eagles
The Eagles have played a soft schedule and are begging to get beat by a team that is better than them. Without Westbrook Philly does not play well. The Giants have too many weapons on both sides of the ball to lose such an important division game. Take the Giants.
Titans -3 over Jaguars
The Titans had two weeks to think about their huge 59-0 loss to the Patriots. Now Vegas has this 0-6 team favored. The Titans behind a good running game should come up with a much needed win. This game could determine a few jobs if they cant win. Take the Titans.Comment
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Re: 11-1-09
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000? Packers
2. 50,000? Bills
1. Packers- To the people thinking their getting "value" with the Vikings plus the points here, I have one thing to say: If it looks to good to be true, it probably is! Guys, to say this is the biggest game of the Aaron Rodgers era is not an under-statement, and I fully expect the Packers signal caller to shine in his team's victory today, and here's why:
Let's start with the single biggest problem the Packers had in their last meeting: Protecting Aaron Rodgers. First of all, the possible return of stud LT Chad Clifton is the answer to Jared Allen, who terrorized Rodgers the last time out. Also, the fact the Packers did not allow a sack at Cleveland is a very positive sign. True, its just the Browns defense, but regardless, this young o-line needed an effort like that one after giving up 25 sacks in their first 5 games - and I believe they can build off that today. Rookie LT T.J. Lang has improved in every game he's played, so even if Clifton doesn't play, I expect the rook to step up after an embarassment the last time facing Allen.
Second, say what you will about the Vikings defense, but against a pass-happy team like the Packers, the loss of CB Antione Winfield is HUGE. He was their best cover corner, and you better believe Rodgers will be looking to throw early and often against this short-handed secondary. Also, after torching Detroit and Clevelan in back-to-back games, Rodges comes into this contest more confident than ever in his offense. Yes, they were two NFL doormats, but fact is this offense needed to work out the kinks in protection, and they did just that.
Third, if the Packers lose this game, the Vikings NFC North lead becomes a real issue. Needless to say, that's big-time motivation for a team that came into this season with a lot of expectations. Everyone knows this is a rivalry game, and both teams want to win, but CLEARLY this game is far more important to the Packers, who are seeking revenge and trying to stay alive in the divisional race.
Finally, trends a plenty pointing away from Minnesota and towards the Pack, as the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their L7 against winning teams, and just 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a dog! Green Bay is 4-1 ATS over their L5 as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their L10 in divisional play! In the end, you may think you're getting a bargain with the Vikings at this price, but the Packers learned their lesson, and I fully expect FAR better protection this time around. Given time, Rodgers will take care of business (especially with Winfield out)!
Take the Packers over the Vikings as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bills- First thing first, FAR too many bettors are enamored with the Texans in this one, as I see plenty of issues arising for them this afternoon in Buffalo. We all know stud WR Andre Johnson is out, and to say that's a big blow just doesn't cover it. His absence changes the entire gameplan for Buffalo and will allow them to keep their coverages honest (without rolling to one side). Make no mistake, this will not be an easy game for Schaub and company.
While I'm not fan of either Bills quarterback, Edwards or Fitzpatrick, there's no doubt in my mind Fitzpatrick needs to be starting. Even before the concussion, Edwards had lost all of his confidence, and it showed, losing 9 of the L12 games he took the bulk of the snaps. Fitzpatrick meanwhile has not only won 5 straight games as a starter, but he looked good (a.k.a. better than Edwards) in the Bills solid 20-9 win at Carolina last week. It wasn't a huge stat line at all, but he did the one thing that Edwards couldn't do: avoid turnovers! Look for another ball-controll offensive gameplan today, and that should work VERY much in the Bills favor.
The biggest disparity between these two teams comes on the defensive side, where the Texans are extremely vulnerable on the road, allowing 25 ppg on 361 total yards! The Bills meanwhile are a typically stingy AFC East team, allowing 17 ppg on 308 total yards... Not great, but good enough to cover against a Johnson-less Texans offense.
Bottom line, with a HUGE majority of the betting public on the Texans, I'm very much inclined to go the other way here. Texans may be a high-powered offense, but in this particular case (no Johnson, on the road, against a Bills team coming off back-to-back wins), I can easily see them losing outright here. I still want you to take the points, but rest-assured, the majority of the betting public is DEAD wrong about this contest. Buffalo grabs the cash Sunday afternoon at home!
Take the Bills plus the points over the Texans in this NFL match up.Comment
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Re: 11-1-09
Chris Jordan has 3 plays for today
Sunday's winners ...
300? DENVER BRONCOS - I'm worried about one person - Ray Lewis. But one person does not a team make! And I counter Baltimore's Lewis with argubaly one of the best motivating defensive players in the game - Brian Dawkins! Now you take two of the most electrifying players out of the mix, and you have to ask yourself who's getting it done more impressively ... Baltimore or Denver?
The Ravens are 3-3 after losing three straight, including one to the Patriots, who the Broncos defeated. Including one to the surprising Bengals, who lost to the Broncos in Week 1. Who has Baltimore beaten? Kansas City (1-6), San Diego (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6). That's a combined 5-15 record amongst three teams that will be lucky to make the playoffs. Yes, that includes the Chargers, because I don't believe a team out of the AFC West will get a wildcard berth, and right now, Denver is running away with the division.
Now, as for the Broncos, who have they beaten? The Bengals, who are tied for first in the AFC North at 5-2; the Cowboys, who are 1/2-game out in the NFC East; the Patriots, who are in sole possession of first place in the AFC East with a 5-2 mark; and, the aforementioned Chargers, who are the closest competitor to the Broncos in the AFC West.
The competition has simply been that much better and having a week off to prepare and study game film is going to allow that stifling defense to bother Joe Flacco and company, while stuffing the run and leaving the Ravens with no options offensively.
These are two of my favorite teams to watch this season, and I must tell you it is imperative to get +3-1/2 points with the Broncos in this one, cause it wouldn't surprise me to see this being a tight game either. And in the event the Ravens eke this one out, it's going to be by a field goal. Otherwise, it's the Broncos winning. Take the dog and again, get +3-1/2 points in this contest, and buy the 1/2 point if necessary.
300? DETROIT LIONS - Two crappy teams is never the way to go in any professional sport; but something about the aforementioned theory - schedule strength and performance - has me intrigued about the Lions. I won't get too long-winded on this, I'll just hit the main points.
Aside from the fact the Lions finally snapped their extended losing streak this season, I like the way they put up 27 points in the opener against the Saints. That's stuck in my head each week, given the fact only one other team the Saints have played have scored more than that. Miami put up 34 last week, and the week prior the Giants equally scored 27 as well. But the Eagles, Bills and Jets - all teams I'd guess would be favored over Detroit - averaged a mere 13 points against New Orleans.
Detroit was competitive in Chicago before the Bears pulled away for a 48-24 win and the Lions put a 20-spot on the Steelers on Oct. 11.
As for the Rams, they're now the laughingstock of the NFL with the extended losing skid. They've hit the 20-point mark ONCE this season, and are averaging less than 10 points per game after seven contests. Other than Green Bay and Minnesota, I'm not necessarily impressed with the Rams' schedule, as they've also played the Seahawks, Redskins, Niners and Jaguars - a quartet with a combined record of 10-15.
Say what you will about the Lions, they're not as bad as St. Louis. I'm laying the points.
300? DALLAS COWBOYS - Forget the Seahawks' two shutout wins - they're jaded and don't characterize how they really play. One win was against the hapless Rams and the other was against a travel-weary Jaguars team that had no shot. Instead, focus on the four losses that saw Seattle fail to score more than 19 points and that it lost by an average final of 27-12.
Though Seattle has had two weeks to prepare for this one, it doesn't scare me against a Dallas team that seems to have found its offense after taking its own bye week. Last week they pasted Atlanta, 37-21, and before hitting the road for Philly and Green Bay the next two weeks, I believe this is a team that needs another blowout to build that confidence and get the engine well greased for two tough contests on the highway.
Besides, the Seahawks buck the league trend of being successfule after resting for week, as they're sporting an abysmal 2-8 mark after byes.
Dallas got key personnel back last week, thanks to its bye, and with the rushing game once again healthy, you're going to see this offense come together nicely. Between Felix Jones' openfield antics, Marion Barber's power game and Tony Romo going vertical with Miles Austin, the question won't be if the Cowboys cover or not, but how much they're going to cover by?Comment
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