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Re: 11-7-09
Stephen Nover
Saturday's plays
50-Dime NORTHWESTERN
Stephen Nover
Saturday's plays
50-Dime NORTHWESTERN
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Re: 11-7-09
Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence
Game: Oregon at Stanford Nov 7 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: Stanford
Reason: Play On: Stanford (Game 374) Note: The Cardinal host the Ducks in a key PAC 10 clash on The Farm in Stanford in a terrific winning situation today. It starts with the fact that teams who beat USC are just 11-22 ATS the next game, including 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS if they are riding a four-game or more win streak. From the database we note that college conference home dogs or favorites of less than 3 points playing off a win with rest and revenge are 29-1 ATS from Game Eight out if the opponent owns a win percentage of less than .800 and both teams are off spread wins. With the Cardinal riding a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS home streak, we'll make take the points. We recommend a 4-unit play on Stanford.Comment
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Re: 11-7-09
Smooth44...Including Guaranteed Game of the Month (Money Back & 5 Free Days) - Iowa State + 8
NOTE: BY FAR THIS IS THE LARGEST CARD OF THE SEASON FOR ME ANDONE THING IS CERTAIN – IT MIGHT BE A LONG TIME BEFORE YOU SEE A CARD THIS BIG AGAIN!! HOWEVER, I HAVE FOUND BIG DISCREPENCIES IN THE NUMBERS AND THEY SIMPLY CAN’T BE IGNORED.
ALSO NOTE: NBA WILL BE SENT LATER!
12:00PM EST
377 Virginia
378 MiamiFlorida
TOP PLAY: VIRGINIA +14
Too many points for a really banged up Miami team to cover especially knowing the Canes are just 8-19 ATS L27 at home including 1-6 ATS L7 in November!! Look for Virginia defense to keep it close and to give their offense a chance to win in the end.
PREDICTION: THE U. 24 VIRGINIA 21
12:30PM EST
355 Kansas
356 Kansas State
TOP PLAY: UNDER 56
PREDICTION: 44-47
2:00PM EST
393 Florida Atlantic
394 UAB
TOP PLAY: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7
Fla Atlantic hasn’t had much success except when it comes to playing teams with losing records where they are 7-3 ATS L10. UAB is returning home off a SU win over UTEP as a dog, in a game they were out-gained by more than 200 yards. Don’t be fooled by this line because kids at this level typically fail miserably off a big upset win as a dog!! Fla Atlantic won last year’s meeting and I so no reason for them not to win again this year!!
PREDICTION: FLA ATLANTIC 31 UAB 27
3:30PM EST
333 OklahomaState
334 Iowa State
TOP PLAY: IOWASTATE +8 -120
TOP PLAY: IOWA STATE MONEYLINE +245
Okie State enters this game off a blowout loss to Texas, a game that many predicted OSU to win SU as a dog. It is only reasonable to expect them to bounce back big today and many of the same so-called experts are predicting just that – BUT NOT ME!! Here is the bottom line - that game against Texas was supposed to be OSU’s biggest game of the year. If they weren’t up to the challenge at HOME in front of a prime time audience how on earth can we expect them to be interested in this game when it is on the ROAD and their hopes for a Big 12 title are now gone?? I realize Iowa State got blasted at Texas A&M last week but it is important to note that they were without the services of their starting QB who they get back today. It is also worth noting that the Cyclones may have been looking ahead to this game because they are in a HUGE revenge situation seeking redemption for last year’s embarrassing loss!! Everyone is quick to point to OSU’s ground attack and how good it is but few fail to recognize that it is the Cyclones who possess the best attack in the Big 12!! Big games are won with solid ground games and the ability to make big plays on defense and create turnovers and IOWA STATE IS BETTER IN ALL KEY AREAS!! Iowa State ranks 9th in the nation in turnover margin, is tied with Texas for 2nd in the nation in turnovers created and only has ONE less than national leader Ohio. Iowa State also ranks 8th in the nation in sacks allowed and 9th in the nation in red zone defense. When you add in the fact that the Cyclones also rank 17th in the nation in fewest penalties it becomes even more clear who is the better team and more disciplined team!! Iowa State is inside of a huge home revenge angle that has cashed more than 80% of the time and with the Cyclones 7-1 ATS L8 as a home dog of 7.5 to 14 points it makes them MY CFB GAME OF THE MONTH!!
PREDICTION: IOWASTATE 24 OKLAHOMASTATE 20
3:30PM EST
325 WakeForest
326 Georgia Tech
TOP PLAY: WAKEFOREST +14
Tech finds themselves in unchartered waters – ranked in the top 10 in many of the major polls for the first time in a long time!!. However, kids at this level typically do not respond well in unfamiliar roles. Tech offense is solid but their defense is only average at-best as supported by the fact that they gave up 31 point to VANDERBILT last week – WOW!! The teams Tech struggles most against are those that get establish the run early and throw – that is what Wake is all about. Look for this one to be close throughout with Tech holding on in the end!!
PREDICTION: GA TECH 27 WAKE FOREST 24
4:00PM EST
361 TCU
362 San Diego State
TOP PLAY: OVER 49
PREDICTION: 57-60
6:00PM EST
365 New Mexico
366 Utah
TOP PLAY: OVER 47
PREDICTION: 54-57
7:00PM EST
383 Houston U
384 Tulsa
TOP PLAY: TULSA + 2 -120
Does it get any funnier than this?? Houston, a ranked team and with one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, enters this game as a 1.5/2 point fave and knowing that Houston absolutely humiliated Tulsa last year by a score of 70-30!!?? GET REAL!! This may very well be the sucker line of the year!! Tulsa’s defense is the better unit in this one and their offense is balanced enough to move the ball on one of the worst defenses in the nation!! It is worth noting that Houston is a perfect 0-7 ATS L7 on road off B2B SU wins!!
PREDICTION: TULSA 38 HOUSTON 31
7:45PM EST
381 FloridaState
382 Clemson
TOP PLAY: CLEMSON – 9
A lot of so-called experts are predicting an upset here but I don’t see it at all!! This couldn’t be a worse match up for the Seminoles as their run defense has been their weakest link all season and we all know running is what Clemson does best!! The Seminoles haven’t been a dog this big all year and 3 of 4 losses came by 5 or less and their 4th loss by 10. This line begs for FSU money given these facts but I’m not buying it!! FSU is a horrible 5-18 ATS L23 on the road when coming off 3 straight conference games while Clemson is 7-1 ATS L8 meetings at home!!
PREDICTION: CLEMSON 31 FLORIDA STATE 17
8:00PM EST
357 Oklahoma
358 Nebraska
TOP PLAY: NEBRASKA + 5
OU won last year 62-28 despite being out-gained by almost 100 yards. They were 21 point faves in that one and now this year the Sooners are only 4.5/5 point faves and knowing they are also 7-1-1 ATS L9 road games?? I DON’T THINK SO!! Look for this one to play close throughout with the game being decided in the closing minutes.
PREDICTION: NEBRASKA 17 OKLAHOMA 16
8:00PM EST
385 USC
386 ArizonaState
TOP PLAY: ARIZONA ST + 10
There is no way USC can lose two in a row right?? WRONG!! And Arizona State is the perfect team to get it done!! With that loss USC’s Rose Bowl hopes are all but gone!! ASU proved once again last week that their defense is legit and CAN stop/slow down the most prolific offenses!! USC is just 1-7 ATS L8 on the road and also 1-7 ATS L8 conference games!! Huge home revenge angle supporting ASU!!
PREDICTION: ARIZONASTATE 24 USC 23Comment
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