12-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Docc's NBA

3-Unit Play #706 Take Charlotte -2½ Over Utah (7 p.m. EST, Saturday)
Utah’s troubles on the road have been well documented. They come into the game tonight with a 4-7 road record and they are coming in on a back-to-back after getting humiliated in Atlanta last night (the final score was deceptive since the Hawks protected the lead in the fourth quarter). Charlotte is one of those teams that stinks on the road but they are one of the best home teams in the NBA at 9-3 and they have covered in eight of those games. The Bobcats are well rested while the Jazz are playing their third game in four nights and we think that this line should be larger.

5-Unit Play #712 Take Milwaukee -6 Over Sacramento (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday)
We love taking Sacramento as a big road dog or a small home favorite to a crappy team but we think the line is too slim tonight and the Kings showed real signs of wear last night, getting smacked around by the T-Wolves on the road, 112-96. The Bucks have faces a Murderer’s Row in their last six games against Cleveland (twice), the Lakers, Portland and Boston and we think their stock is a little down right now while the Kings stock is sky high since they have been one of the best bets in the NBA and the oddsmakers are finally catching up. Milwaukee, however, has cashed five straight games and they have played really well in their last three games against much better competition and we think they take advantage tonight of a young team playing its fourth game in five nights.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

ASA
5* Wichita State Shockers (CBB)
3* Gonzaga Bulldogs (CBB)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

wunderdog ncaab

Game: North Carolina at Texas (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 154.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
A true early season heavyweight battle of NCAA titans takes place here with the young and talented Tar Heels squaring off against the Texas Longhorns. These games tend to always have a high total, yet often struggle to reach expectations as a chess match is usually more the instrument at work here. The Heels will certainly find the going tough vs. a Texas team that leads the country, allowing just 31.6% FG shooting. Both teams depend on the boards for extra put-backs to the offensive arsenal, but both are +12.9 off the glass - meaning fewer opportunities. This one promises points, but the true resolve here will be felt on the other end, so I like this one to go UNDER the total.

Game: Gonzaga at Duke (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 154 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Gonzaga isn't up to the standards of teams we have seen in the past, and the Blue Devils are a tick down as well. But both of these teams bring intense defense every night, which is the trademark of both coaches. While the Bulldogs have put up big offensive numbers, games vs. top teams have seen them at 75 points or less in all of them. Following the same pattern the Dukies scored 100 on three occasions and 96 points in another, but vs. CT, Arizona State and Wisconsin, they couldn't find their way out of the 60s. This may look and promise to be a high-scoring affair, but it comes up short of the billing, so UNDER is the play here.

Game: Northern Illinois at Illinois Chicago (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Northern Illinois +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
While the Illinois Chicago Flames have had their time in the spotlight this decade, this year the lights have dimmed. In eight outings on the hardwood, the Flames have managed a single two-point win vs. Div-1 competition - hardly what we saw from this team not so long ago. The Northern Illinois Huskies haven't been in the spotlight for quite some time, and this year are just 1-6 to start. The big difference however, is the most difficult schedule the Huskies have faced. They’ll have three Big-10 opponents, a top 25 caliber Northern Iowa team, and MVC Conference's Bradley. This one will be a step down for the Huskies, and often teams respond favorably under this situation. The road team has cashed the last four in this series and the Huskies have enough to make that five. I'll go with Northern Illinois here.

Game: La - Monroe at Denver (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on La - Monroe +12 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Pioneers are on the fast track opening at 7-2 with a 6-1 mark at home. They have been shooting lights-out at over 47% for their last three, but that puts them in a bad situation for this one as teams that have had three hot games shooting tend to fall off in the fourth. That opens the door for the Warhawks who traded baskets with a solid Northern Colorado team to sneak in under the inflated number, bringing LA Monroe to 5-1 ATS vs. home teams winning at .600 or better. The Pioneers are a disinterested 1-4 ATS in their last five at home vs. a team with a losing record which opens the door here for the Warhawks to once again sneak in under the number. I’m on LA Monroe here.

Game: Illinois State at Utah (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Illinois State +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Redbirds have taken a hit in their last two after winning their first seven. This is a good team with a stat-filling star in Osiris Eldridge who is capable of carrying a team, but he has support that goes eight deep on this team. The evidence is mounting that the Utes aren't up to the caliber of club we have seen in the recent past as losses to Weber State, Seattle and Idaho have exposed. The Utes’ top two scorers are killing them with shooting in the 30's and long-range misfires at 30% each. The Utes consequently, are overrated and are turning in the doughnut in their last four as a chalk of 6.5 or less. The Redbirds are cashing in 13 of their last 19 as a road dog and are a live dog here. I'll go with Illinois State.

Game: Drake at Iowa (6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Iowa -5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Hawkeyes will take some blows in conference play, but can certainly hold their own here vs. the Bulldogs. Drake has been holding a cupcake fest through 10 games, managing just a breakeven 5-5 mark. They will be challenged on the road here vs. an Iowa team that knows that they have to get wins in these games, so a no-show is out of the question. The Bulldogs have been the no-show vs. a losing team, misfiring to a 1-6-1 ATS mark in their last eight tries. The Hawkeyes are an impressive 13-5 ATS as home chalk up to 6.5 and get it done in this one. Iowa gets the nod.

Game: St. Bonaventure at Syracuse (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 153 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Syracuse has been perhaps the biggest surprise in NCAAB so far. The loss of Johny Flynn and Devendorf were supposed to leave the Cuse in the middle of the Big East pack, but freshmen and players in expanding roles are responding has the Cuse is flawless through 10 games. They are scoring 75 plus in each of them. That certainly has a way of juicing the total beyond what is reasonable here vs. a Bonnie's team that is a slow-down type team, already logging three opponents with scores of 47 or less! St. Bonaventure has played UNDER in 11 of their last 16 as a road dog, an indicator of the fact they won't allow a track meet when they are on the short side of talent in the game. The Cuse is 4-1 UNDER as chalk of 13+ makes this one look like it stays UNDER, so I'm going UNDER here.

Game: Old Dominion at Georgetown (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Old Dominion +9.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
This Talented Hoyas squad is perfect out of the gate sporting an 8-0 mark thus far. They are drawing a big number vs. a competent, always fundamentally sound Monarchs squad. The Hoyas are off of two big games that could leave them a bit uninterested here. The Monarchs’ close calls with Dayton, Richmond and Missouri, say that they have enough talent and resolve to hold their own here. The Hoyas have reached saturation level at home with the big name, but little in the way of results as their over-value has led to 1-7 ATS in their last eight at home. ODU has enough to stay inside an inflated Hoyas’ number, so I'll back Old Dominion in this one.

Game: Portland at Washington (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 150.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Lots of games featuring teams with offensive reputations playing down in class get saddled with big totals to topple, and here we go again. Portland goes to Minnesota in a 61-56 game and manages just 66 vs. West Virginia. These teams that are stepping up in class have to slow things down or they get blown out as evidenced by the Pilots 7-2 mark to the UNDER vs. the Pac-10. The Huskies are 4-1 as a favorite of 7-12.5 shows the same tendency. When these totals hit the 150 mark we have to look hard at the UNDER and that is the case here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

M@linksy

6* #704 ORLANDO over PORTLAND

We started to see that Orlando was moving to NBA elite status LY when
the Magic began to take losing very seriously. Over the past two
seasons they are now 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing at home off of
a loss, beating the spread by a collective 108 points in those games,
and we were along for many of the rides. We saddle up again here, as
they begin a five-game home stand off of that dismal 104-86 loss at
Miami on Wednesday, a stretch in which they will not leave the state
in over three weeks. A comfort zone of a schedule stretch like that
can help to build a chemistry for a team still fitting Vince Carter
and Jason Williams into the mix, and having two full days to steam
off of that ugly loss to the Heat means a lot if they use it the
right way. We believe that they will, with virtually the entire
roster showing a level of frustration.

We can start with Stan Van Gundy on the sidelines - "The reality
is that if you want to talk about being a championship
contender?.that can't be good enough for you." From Vince Carter
- "We're trying to accomplish something bigger than just winning
games, so we have to come to play every night." And J. J. Redick
- ?Every guy has to say to himself, ?What do I need to do to get
better??? It tells us that the mentality that has had them
bouncing back so well off of losses should absolutely be there
tonight. And that is bad news for a limited Portland roster.

We lost a frustrating 5* ticket against the Trail Blazers on Thursday
that did not have to be ? Phoenix had them down by 11 in the fourth
quarter, but Nate McMillans?s team had a major role of the dice, with
Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless scoring 41 points off of the bench,
knocking down 6-10 from 3-point range. That win helps to set up this
low price range, but with so many key cogs missing from the roster it
is not something that is going to repeat, especially with only Friday
off to make one of the longest trips in the league, losing three
hours in the time zone transition as well. And in a game that could
easily get away, McMillan may choose to not chase all that hard, with
a more realistic chance to win at Miami on Sunday.

Orlando does not have many weaknesses, and those few that the Magic
do have do not come into play tonight. Dwight Howard?s free throw
shooting? Not an issue, because the Trail Blazers do not have any
fouls to five up front. The non-existent defense of Jason Williams?
Portland can not attack because of the struggles of Blake and Andre
Miller at the point. All of the pieces fall in place for an Orlando
blowout in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

M@linksy

4* 201 WYOMING over FRESNO STATE

game was +12.5 when released tuesday

Through the years double-figure underdogs in the minor bowl games
have been a nice portfolio by themselves, and we have gone along for
most of those rides. The logic is simple, but impeccable, from both
sides of the equation: 1. If you are a big favorite in a game like
this one it means that your program is of a level in which greater
things were expected from the season, and the bowl is often a
disappointment, instead of a reward; and 2. The worse a team is,
which will absolutely be reflected in the line, the more of a reward
it often turns out to be, since they are happy to have been given a
chance to keep playing.

Why don?t the oddsmakers correct for this? Because they do not have
to. The underdogs in these games look so unappetizing that the public
will rarely get involved in that direction, and as the bowl season
begins the public becomes a bigger factor in the proceedings than
during the NCAA regular season.

Which takes us to this game, and an almost textbook example of the
concept. Literally the last place that Pat Hill and his Bulldogs
wanted to play this December was here in Albuquerque. This will be
the second year in a row to travel to a site that does not generate
much interest for them, and for most of the second half of the
regular season they thought that a trip to the Hawaii Bowl was in
their grasp. It was not, even with that exciting win at Illinois in
their final game, and now the factors all compound. A return trip to
this venue to play in front of a tiny crowd does not create any
spark, and getting plugged into this matchup also means a
precariously short turnaround of only two weeks from that Illinois
trip. For a team that has played at Illinois, Wisconsin, Cincinnati
and Hawaii this season the mileage has added up as big as any we have
ever charted, and we could see it take a clear toll down the stretch,
when a worn-out rushing defense allowed at least 230 yards overland
to each of the last five opponents. Now that defense does not get any
time to regenerate, which leaves a flat and vulnerable favorite for
this setting.

Wyoming brings the prototype of the ?Play On? underdog. The Cowboys
did not harbor bowl aspirations in Dave Christensen?s first season,
but gutted out enough close wins to qualify, and with their schedule
ending on November 27th there is plenty of time to get fresh and
prepare. That means a lot for an offense that has gone to a new
playbook, and there is the benefit of having basically another full
fall practice, which particularly helps with true FR Austyn
Carta-Samuels at QB. There is plenty of operating room for this
offense against the uninspiring Fresno defense (97th in Total
Defense, 111th against the Run, and a dead last 120th in Sacks), and
the defense can also bring some park, with that all-SR DL of Mitch
Unrein, Fred Givens and John Fletcher that has started together
almost since day one of their careers getting a chance to close out
in style in their first bowl appearance (from Fletcher - "It makes
all of it worth it -- the winter conditioning and the two-a-days, all
that blood and sweat and tears that we've put in, it's all worth it,"
senior captain and defensive tackle John Fletcher told the Casper
Star-Tribune. "We're getting the reward with a bowl game. For us
seniors, it's huge.?)

Look for Wyoming to compete to win this game outright to the final
possessions, and for the Cowboys to stay comfortably with the
generous spread.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Special K Super 20* K-Bomb

Gonzaga

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Vegas Runner

triple-dime bet 203 UCF 3.0 (-115) sportbet vs 204 Rutgers
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* BOWL "BOOKIE BET" *** (Confirmed BIG SLICK BET...by Bookie Bill)

There are a lot of shops that have moved to 3 on this match-up...And I've seen it anywhere from -110 to -120 to get +3 on UCF...And since that's the number that Bill's Slick made this Big Bet at...we'll go ahead and make sure that we get +3 as well...For grading purposes, I used the "average" and made it +3 (-115)...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Great Lakes Sports

4* N Dame
3* Seton Hall
3* Missouri St

4* Port
3* Phil
3* Atl

4* Wyoming

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

vegas runner
304 NOS -7.0 (-120) Sportbet vs 303 DAL
Analysis:

** NFL 2* PRI„ME-TIME "LATE STEAM" PLAY OF THE DAY **

BUY the 1/2 POINT to -7...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Steve Duemig
Saturday
25 Dime - Central Florida

Lots of things working against Rutgers here. First it is basically a home game for UCF as they have purchased enough tickets to make the game a sellout at Tropicana Field. It is also smack dab in the middle of finals for the Rutgers players so distraction about taking finals are at a max. Then we go to the field. Rutgers has a very shaky freshman QB in Tom Savage and UCF has two DE's that are in the top 10 in sacks. Both are in double digits, so he will be even more tentative than usual. We also see the line basically remaining at Rutgers -2.5 remaining the entire time after a short buy in on Rutgers. This usually means strong support for the dog here or it would have been pounded by sharp money at -2.5. It wasn't so we have to support where the support is. On the dog UCF

5 Dime - Saints

Oh Brother!! Delighted we get a game of this magnitude alone on a Saturday night, but C'Mon Man! Everything we are taught from a handicapping perspective has to go out the window. Normally we would jump on a dog that was really in a must win situation but we have a undefeated team at home this late in the season that has rolled everyone in big games, including the anhialation of fellow NFC East opponent Giants in a similar situation earlier . Many of sharp bettors have been burned by the Saints this year where it seems that traditional handicapping has to go out the window. Dallas is in their traditional swoon this time of year and NO in big games have looked absolutely jaw dropping. I'm going to take NO here in this spot. We are for the rarest of time, going to go away from traditional handicapping and go with our gut that says NO in a blowout, as they continue their amazing season. They are that good!! And BTW, when was the last time that Tony Romo has won a big game like this??? Never!!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Doc’s Sports. #8 Take Rutgers over Central Florida (Saturday 8 pm ESPN) Saturday is the opening day of the bowl season and we will attack the St. Petersburg bowl siding with the BCS Conference team in Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights had one of the most disappointing seasons in 2009, as they were predicted by many to win the Big East Conference. UCF has faced six bowl teams this season and went just 2-4 straight-up in those games. The UCF Knights are 98th in offense averaging just 26 points per game and 348 total yards. Rutgers does not rate much higher in offense but has played stronger competition in the Big East. Rutgers needs this win to salvage their season and expect them to get it behind Joe Martinek and company. We will side with the Knights from New Jersey in this battle. Doc’s Sports is one of the top college bowl handicappers in the country going 6-1 with our seven bowl plays last season. Jump on this victorious action now!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Steve Budin

SATURDAY'S PICK
BALTIMORE CREW

50 DIME RELEASE

New Orleans

I got this play around 8:00 P.M. Eastern on Friday evening and as I put it up online, I see the price is 7 1/2 in Vegas and just about everywhere offshore except that one notorious book where they always overcharge you for playing favorites. Needless to say, if your price is 7 1/2, the wise move is to buy down the 1/2 point as the insurance often pays. But, if this price moves up to -8, or if that is the price you get even after shopping around, there is no need with that number to purchase the 1/2 point as the hook in that case is meaningless.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Tim Trushel
Bulls/20*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Al DeMarco

15 Dime - New Orleans Saints

I am not at all concerned that New Orleans struggled to score three-point wins at Atlanta and Washington the past two Sundays. You might recall that prior to beating up New England late last month, the Saints were in a similar spot. True, they had crushed Tampa a week earlier, but the Sunday prior they barely got by lowly St. Louis on the road 28-23, and that game was preceded by a tough 30-20 home win versus under-performing Carolina.

Unlike the Colts, who are seemingly wishy-washy when it comes to their desire to either finish 16-0 or rest their starters for an anticipated lengthy playoff run, New Orleans wants an undefeated season, not only for the long down-trodden franchise, but for the community, which has used the team as a rallying point since Hurricane Katrina. And they've got a head coach in Sean Payton and quarterback in Drew Brees that know only one way to play: all-out, all the time.

This is another opportunity for the Saints to serve notice to the public and the NFL that they are as good as advertised. A marquee foe on national TV just like when the Patriots came calling on Monday night. I was all over New Orleans in that contest and I'm backing the Saints again tonight for many of the same reasons.

Think about this: New Orleans has greater balance and is more lethal offensively than the San Diego team that just upset the Cowboys in Dallas. Brees directs an offense that averages 426 yards and 35.8 points per game. Plus, the Saints' receiver corps is better than San Diego's and their three-headed running back trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush offers talent and diversity that the Chargers could only dream of with an aging LT propping up the backfield.

The Saints are on a 10-4 ATS run in the Superdome, where they've scored huge wins in their three biggest games this season, rolling over the then-undefeated Jets 24-10, crushing the then-undefeated Giants 48-27, and blowing out the supposedly invincible Patriots 38-17. On the other hand, all I can say about the Cowboys - other than the fact they've lost two in a row - is that they've failed to cover six straight road games in the month of December.

Expect a high-scoring entertaining affair with the Cowboys hanging tough for most of the first half - much like the Patriots did - before Brees pulls the Saints away with a second-half burst as New Orleans prevails 37-20.


Strategy:

This line moved up from 7 to 7 1/2 on Friday. Go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if you have New Orleans at -7 1/2. If your price is -8, forget about buying the hook because that's not a key number to concern yourself with when it comes to buying insurance.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w W iseg uy N F L Saturday G AM E OF THE Y EA R on Dallas Cowboys +8(-120 at sportsinteraction)

New Orleans has been escaping with wins the last two weeks, beating the Redskins and Falcons each by 3 points. The Cowboys have only lost one game all season by more than 7 points, and that came by 10 at Green Bay due to 3 turnovers. But Dallas is not prone to making mistakes, as they've committed just 1 or less turnovers in 6 of their last 8 games. The Cowboys will be up for this game to prove their doubters wrong Saturday, and to put an end to the Saints' perfect season. If New Orleans is to win Saturday, they will have to escape with a victory because Dallas isn't going to fold with what's at stake. New Orleans has been thriving off of turnovers defensively, but their numbers aren't all that great. They give up 348 total yards/game this season against teams putting up an average of 329 yards/game, so really this is a below-average defense. The Saints are 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in their last 22 home games after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in their last 17 games off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. These last two trends add up to a 14-1 (93%) ATS Angle in favor of a Cowboys' cover Saturday. Take Dallas and the points.



5* W iseg uy St. Petersburg Bowl B LO OD B AT H on Rutgers -2.5(-110 at bookmaker)

Rutgers is upset with how they finished their season, losing a 3-point heartbreaker to West Virginia. They'll come in the hungrier team after UCF finished the season with 3 consecutive victories. The Scarlet Knights have the better team, and certainly the better defense as they allow just 17.4 points/game this season against opponents that averaged 22 points/game this year. Rutgers has also played their best football on the road, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS away from home this season. The UCF Knights are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big East opponents. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA foes. With Rutgers having played the tougher schedule against a much tougher conference in the Big East, they have a big edge going into this one. We strongly feel the Scarlet Knights will be the more motivated team Saturday as they look to bounce back from a loss in their regular season finale. Take Rutgers and lay the points.




4* on Sacramento Kings +6.5(-106 at 5dimes)

Once again, the odds makers are not giving the Sacramento Kings the respect they deserve. They find themselves a big underdog against a Milwaukee Bucks team that is just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. The Bucks expended a lot of energy last night in their 82-85 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on National TV. This is a letdown spot for the Bucks after playing on ESPN and coming up short against Cleveland last night. The Kings got crushed by Minnesota last night, but because it was such a bad loss, they had a chance to rest their starters in the 4th quarter. Sacramento comes in the fresher team with more to prove tonight. Sacramento is a PERFECT 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take the Kings and the points.