12-20-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Jay McNeil

Sunday's plays


25 Dime -- Dolphins (plus points vs. TITANS)

DOLPHINS

Miami has won four of its last five games and is trying to make a late-season playoff push, Ricky Williams has averaged more than 100 yards rushing over the past five games and QB Chad Henne has become more of a playmaker as the season has progressed, completing 61.7 percent of his throws for 555 yards over the past two weeks. Tennessee QB Vince Young likely will play today, but he is bothered by a sore right hamstring that will limit his ability to move outside the pocket, and the Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.


25 Dime -- Texans (minus points vs. RAMS)

Texans

Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in December and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games, and the Texans' fourth-ranked passing game got going in a big way last week in a 34-7 victory over Seattle and now faces a St. Louis team that allows 27.8 points per game. The Rams have lost 22 of their last 23 games, are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games and have an offense that could be headed by rookie QB Keith Null and will be without both of its starting guards.


25 Dime -- SEAHAWKS (minus points vs. Buccaneers)

SEAHAWKS

Seattle was embarrassed last week in Houston and coach Jim Mora is looking for his team to give a strong showing at home, where the Seahawks are 4-2 this season, against a Tampa Bay team that has lost 16 of its last 17 games and scored just nine points over the past two weeks. The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and the Buccaneers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in December.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Charley Sutton

SUNDAY'S PLAYS

200 Unit Chargers

50 Unit Browns


Bengals at Chargers

CHARGERS - The San Diego Chargers come into today’s game against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals arguably the best team in the NFL. The Chargers are riding an 8-game SU winning streak and have gone 6-2 ATS in that stretch. San Diego is riding a 2-game home winning streak SU and ATS, beating the Chiefs and Eagles by an average of 18.5 points per game. Now they battle a Bengals team that’s in the midst of a 4-game ATS losing streak and is coming off a 20-point loss on the road at the hands of the Vikings. The Chargers, during this game streak, have beaten their opponents by an average of 14.3 points per game and will cruise to another easy victory.



Browns at Chiefs

BROWNS - The Cleveland Browns have been showing signs of life lately, covering in 4 straight games coming into tonight, including last week’s 13-6 outright victory over the Steelers in a game Cleveland was installed as a 9 1/2 point underdog. Now the Browns battle a Chiefs team that’s in the midst of a 3-game SU and ATS losing streak and has lost each of its last two home games by an average of 18.5 points per game. The Browns will stay hot and cash in today at Arrowhead.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Kelso

100 UnitsTexans (-14) over Rams

1:00 PM -- Edward Jones Dome
Houston Texas (6-7) -14 over ST. LOUIS RAMS (1-12) Prediction: Houston by 35 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: CBS, DirecTV 706

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

A. REDD

Sunday's Card
15-Dime - Chargers
15-Dime - Eagles
15-Dime - Seahawks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

duemig sunday
Sunday sweep
40 Dime - 2-Team Teaser: Green Bay & Philadelphia

(Make the Packers a bigger underdog at Pittsburgh while reducing the price you're laying with the Eagles at home versus San Francisco)

There is no better time to play a teaser than this one because of a couple of major factors. First we have the struggling Steelers who the oddsmakers are showing no respect, opening them up at -1 which is less than the standard field goal HFA if these two teams were considered equal. With the opening line as it was the oddsmakers is telling us that they consider GB the better team here, so why not move them up to an even bigger favorite. Secondly we have the Eagles who are red hot, playing at home and there is a major winter storm on hand. Now we have SF after playing on a Monday night, having to come all the way EAST!!!! The only positive is that the game has been moved to a 4;15 eastern start which would be more similar to their body clocks for a home game in California. So we will move the Eagles down though 3 key numbers the 7, 4 and 3 to 1.5. This is vital when considering teasers. You want to cross as many key numbers as you can when moving the line in a teaser by 6 points. The main numbers in doing that which will allow you to cross that many numbers.

10 Dime - Southern Miss

This line opened at 3 and moved immediately to 3.5 which means early and big support for the favorite. Takes a bunch to come off a key number of 3. There has been no movement of this line either so that means that no one has attempted to buy back the hook. That further strengthens our stance that there is major support on S.Miss

5 Dime - Broncos

Lets face it. We will normally not ever support teams laying this many points but whenever we see a third string QB starting against a superior defense, you MUST jump on it. This is simply a case where all the sharp money will support Denver here and probably the public will join them in this one. There is no chance for Gradkowski to play here and Oakland has told Russell to stay on the bench, so they will go with Charlie Frye who has done nothing this year but run scout team. Denver still trying to hang with the Chargers will not have any mercy on the Raiders in this one. Get on this one early and even thought you aren't getting the best number you want to get the best one available to you before everyone else gets to it. you could find a 13.5 out there but I don't see any danger in this one unless Denver plays like Arizona did last week and commit 8 turnovers.

5 Dime - Ravens

Baltimore continues to drive for a playoff spot and the Bears keep sinking lower than the low. Then you have the problems that the Bears faced in travel, not even getting there until the day of the game and this one has all the signs of a major blowout.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

ATS Football Financial Package

Atlanta +8 4 Units
Philly -7 1/2 4 Units
Green Bay +2 4 Units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

ATS LOCK CLUB

3 so miss under 58
6 SD -7
6 Balt -11
5 NE -7
4 So Miss -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Al DeMarco's Double-Digit Blowout of the Year
Kicks off after 4:00 P.M. Eastern
RAVENS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Burns
Blue Chip total - Sou Miss Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Kelso:
100 unit Texans
15 units Bills
5 units Vikings
4 units Packers
3 units 49ers/Eagles under 40.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Kelso:
100 unit Parlay Arizona-Denver-San Diego

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w Wi seg uy 2009 N FL Ea st Co ast GA ME OF THE YEA R on New England Patriots -7(-101 at 5dimes)

The Pats put the Bills away early Sunday. New England will rally around Randy Moss in this game, after everyone in the media has been ragging on Moss for his lack of effort in last Sunday's 20-10 win over Carolina. Look for him to have a big game, and for the Patriots to keep pouring on the points as they always amp it up in December. Forecasts are calling for snow, and the last time the Patriots played in snow they beat the Titans 59-0. It's an advantage for the offenses in games like this, because they know where they are going, while defenders have to react and it's not easy to react in slick conditions. Given that the Patriots clearly have the more potent offense, the advantage goes to New England. The Patriots are 12-0 in their last 12 meetings with Buffalo, winning 9 of those games by more than 7 points. New England clearly has their number, and that won't change this week with what's at stake. The Pats lead both the Jets and Dolphins by 1 game, so they cannot afford to let down here. The Pats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo. The Bills are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Take the Patriots and lay the points.



5* W iseg uy N FC Sunday "T ota l" B LOW OUT on Bucs/Seahawks OVER 39(-110 at betus)

In a game between two terrible teams, this thing has all the makings of a shootout. The Bucs are trying working on their passing game to get Rookie QB Josh Freeman more reps to prepare him for next season. The Seahawks struggle running the football, so they are relying heavily on the pass as well this season behind QB Matt Hasselbeck. Tampa has one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up 27.4 points/game and 361 total yards/game. Seattle isn't much better, giving up 23.2 points/game and 357 total yards/game this season. With the numbers presented, both offenses should have no trouble moving the ball at will and putting plenty of points on the board Sunday to get the OVER here. Seattle is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Seahawks are 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992. Tampa Bay is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 39 points.



4* on Baltimore Ravens -10(-104 at 5dimes)

The Ravens are coming off a dominant 48-3 win over a Detroit Lions' team that had little to play for, and now they host the a Chicago Bears' team that has nothing to play for this weekend, and the result should be similar. Jay Cutler is in line for one of his worst games of the season against this agressive Ravens' defense. Cutler has been awful all season, and it's not getting any easier Sunday. Chicago is 1-5 S.U. & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games to play themselves right out of the playoff hunt. The Bears have gone just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and the fact is that this team just really isn't that good. Cutler has no weapons to get the ball to, and as a result he has to force balls that he shouldn't force. Plus, they have no running game to take the pressure off of Cutler. Their defense is in shambles with injuries to several key players. Chicago is 1-5 S.U. & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 13.3 points/game and allowing 25.3 points/game while getting outscored by 12.0 points/contest. Baltimore is 5-2 at home, scoring 28.4 points/game and allowing 12.6 points/game while outscoring their foes by 17.8 points/contest. The numbers don't lie folks, this thing has all the makings of a blowout especially with Baltimore knowing they cannot afford a letdown. The Bears are 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992. Baltimore has been dominant in games they are supposed to win. That is shown by the fact that the Ravens are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, winning by 22.9 points/game. Take Baltimore and lay the points.



4* on Packers/Steelers OVER 40(-110 at bookmaker)

This is a reasonably low total for two of the better offenses in the league, thus all value is with the OVER. Let's start with Green Bay, who are scoring 26.5 points/game overall and those numbers increase when they get away from Lambeau, where they are scoring 28.8 points/game on the road. Now they are up against a Steelers' defense that is still playing without Polomalu at safety, and a unit that clearly isn't what it was a year ago. The Packers put up 404 total yards/game on the road, while Pittsburgh is scoring 23.2 points/game and averaging 380 total yards/game at home. We fully expect both squads to put up at least 21 points Sunday in a shootout with fireworks through the air from both Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben. The Packers are 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. The Steelers are 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992. This game sets up perfectly for a shootout given these trends. Take the OVER 40 points here.



4* on Cincinnati Bengals +7(-110 at sportsinteraction)

Look for Cincinnati to rally as a team and win this one for WR Chris Henry, who was killed earlier this week. The Bengals will already be highly motivated following their worst loss of the season at Minnesota last week. This has been a very resilient team, and they'll put their best effort forward Sunday which will be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread, likely pulling off the upset. San Diego is coming off their biggest win of the year, a 3-point victory at Dallas. That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for the Chargers, who won't be able to match the Bengals' intensity. Look for Cincinnati to shove it down their throat behind Cedric Benson, setting up timely play-action passing from Carson Palmer as the Bengals get their passing game back on track. Cincinnati has a pair of shutdown corners in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph who match-up well with the Chargers' tall receivers in Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd. The Bengals have had one of the best defenses in the league all season, giving up just 16.7 points/game and 295 yards/game this year. The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. This team lays it all on the line Sunday with Chris Henry in their hearts. Remember, their defensive coordinator lost his wife earlier this season and the Bengals came out and won at Baltimore as a 9-point underdog. Take Cincinnati and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Ron Meyer-
15* Seahawks

10* Panthers

5* Bengals

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

Harry Bondi Sports

NFL Lock of the Year
10 Stars Baltimore

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-20-09

MREAST NFL SUNDAY CLINCHER

The Philadelphia Eagles have control of their own fate in the NFC East. They have played 8 teams with a losing record on the season, and those 8 teams have combined to produce just 119 points a game, or just under 15ppg. The Niners defense has more than held its own, as they allowed just 9 to Arizona last week3 to Jacksonville16 in their other game vs Arizona, and just 18 to the Colts. Mike Singletary always gets his team to play hard, and I like this one to go under the total.

#313 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ #314 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 4:15PM EST

PLAY ON #313 SF 49ERS @ #314 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES UNDER 41 -110 FOR 3 UNITS