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Re: 12-20-09
Joe Wiz
500K Parlay
Vikings Under
Steelers Under
Joe Wiz
500K Parlay
Vikings Under
Steelers Under
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Re: 12-20-09
Private Members Area
12/20
NFL
2 unit Seattle -6.5
3 unit New England -6.5 -120 (best bet)
3 unit Pittsburgh -2.5 (best bet)
3 unit Philadelphia -8 (best bet)
4 unit Cincinnati +7 (major)
5 unit UNDER 43 Mia/Ten (TOTAL OF THE YEAR)
CFB
3 unit Southern Miss -3 -120 (best bet)Comment
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Re: 12-20-09
King Creole | NFL Total Sun, 12/20/09 - 1:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 307 MIA / 308 TEN Under 43.0 betus
Analysis: 2** UNDER the TOTAL / Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans / 1:05pm
2** UNDER the TOTAL / New England Patriots @ Buffa€lo Bills / 1:05pm
2** OVER the TOTAL / ARIZONA CARDINALS @ DETROIT LIONS / 1:05pm ET
Game One:
The way that these two teams have been running the ball lately, we could see anywhere from 60 to 75 rushing plays in this one. And all sharp players know what a lot of rushing plays does to the game clock (tick... tick... tick!). Miami ran 40 times in their win over the Jags last week. Meanwhile, the Titans ran the ball 30 times in their big win over the Rams. We’ll be solidly behind a great series history. These two teams have gone 3-13 O/U vs each other since 1980... and a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in this decade. Average combined points: Only 29.8!
Miami comes in still very much alive in the Playoff race, off BB dog wins vs the Jags and Pats.
0-5 O/U since 2001: All NFL road underdogs playing off a road DOG win... and a home DOG win.
The Dolphins are also active in some solid ‘in-season’ situations: 0-5 O/U THIS season for all road dogs playing off a non-div road dog win... and 1-8 O/U for all road dogs of 7 < points playing off BB ‘Unders’... vs any opponent off an ‘Over’.
The Titans come in as the BEST team in the NFL in yards-per-carry in 2009 at 5.3 YPR. That gaudy rushing stat puts them in “Under”-whelming company.
1-10 O/U since 2001: All GAME 5 or greater home favs of 4 < points who average 5.2 or more yards-per-rush on the season.
It’s rare for a sub-.500 team (Tenn: 6-7 SU) to be favored over a > .500 team (Mia: 7-6 SU) this late in the season.
2-8 O/U since 1990: All DECEMBER < .500 home favs off a SU win against a > .500 opponent. Short favs of 3 < pts (check line) have gone 1-6 O/U.
Game Two.
This AFC East series between the Bills and Patriots has had very one-sided OU results. Since the 1999 season, the UNDER has gone 16-5 in the last 21 meetings. That includes 2-8 O/U in the SECOND meeting of the season… and 2-12 O/U when the PATS are favored by 10 or less points. Buffalo comes in on a 0-2 O/U run in their last 2 games and 2-7 O/U in their last 9. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 0-3 O/U in their last 3 and 1-5-1 O/U in their last 7 overall.
A couple of hot 2009 Systems come into play in this division battle. One pertains to the division home dog role. The other pertains to New England’s win but non-cover of last week (20-10 over the Panthers).
0-6 o/U since November 1st: All division home UNDERDOGS of > 6 points (Bills).
1-12-1 O/U in the 2009 season: All NFL teams playing off a SU win BUT an ATS loss in the role as double-digit favorite (Patriots). We also note that favorites in this situation have gone a PERFECT 0-9 O/U.
On the Bills side, they are active in a rare point spread situation in which they go from road FAVS the previous week to large home DOGS the next week.
0-3 O/U last 3 years: All home dogs of 6 > points after a game in which they were a road favorite (Bills).
Buffalo laid some short points on the road last week ,and beat the Chiefs 16-10.
3-10 O/U last 12 months: All NFL teams off a SU and ATS non-div road favorite win (Bills). Underdogs of 4 > points have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U this season.
1-6 O/U last 5 years: All large FAVS of 6 > points playing off 3 or more ATS wins in a row… with a SU win in their last game (Pats).
Game Three:
What better way to get Kurt Warner and the Cardinal offense back on track? A trip to the ‘Pleasure Dome’ (for opposing teams) in the Motor City! Arizona managed only 245 total yards in the MoComment
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Re: 12-20-09
GoodFella | NFL Side Sun, 12/20/09 - 4:15 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 306 PIT -1.0 (-110) bodog vs 305 GBP
Analysis:
I'm having trouble with my internet connection- and I hope to be able to get some bullet points for my plays today- Strong winds here in Portland are causing major issues for me this morning.
NFL GOW Play
-Steelers coming in with 10 days off to prepare for this game-
-Steelers coming off PISS POOR game vs Browns in their last game- losing OUTRIGHT to them-
-Playoffs basically gone for the Steelers & NO ONE is giving them a shot today- as they have lost 5 straight ballgames-
-Green Bay red hot and rolling coming into this ballgame and have the whole world backing them today-
-Look for a HUGE EFFORT our of the Steelers in this spot today- and I see GREAT VALUE getting the’ Steelers at -1 or -2 in this spot today-
-Steelers bounce back in this spot today vs Green Bay- lay the short number on the Steelers today guys!-Comment
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Re: 12-20-09
GoodFella | NFL Side Sun, 12/20/09 - 4:15 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 306 PIT -1.0 (-110) bodog vs 305 GBP
Analysis:
I'm having trouble with my internet connection- and I hope to be able to get some bullet points for my plays today- Strong winds here in Portland are causing major issues for me this morning.
NFL GOW Play
-Steelers coming in with 10 days off to prepare for this game-
-Steelers coming off PISS POOR game vs Browns in their last game- losing OUTRIGHT to them-
-Playoffs basically gone for the Steelers & NO ONE is giving them a shot today- as they have lost 5 straight ballgames-
-Green Bay red hot and rolling coming into this ballgame and have the whole world backing them today-
-Look for a HUGE EFFORT our of the Steelers in this spot today- and I see GREAT VALUE getting the’ Steelers at -1 or -2 in this spot today-
-Steelers bounce back in this spot today vs Green Bay- lay the short number on the Steelers today guys!-Comment
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Re: 12-20-09
vegas-runner | NFL Side Sun, 12/20/09 - 1:00 PM Æ‹
double-dime bet 313 SFX 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 314 PHI
Analysis:
** NFL 2* PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY **
Thiœs line is anywhere from +7.5 to +9...I used the average, so please make sure to shop this and get the most points that you can...VR
triple-dime bet 327 TAM 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 328 SEA
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK ***
If your book isn't using 7...and you don't have a Bodog Acct...Make sure to BUY the 1/2 POINT and take this up to +7...
Bottom Line here is that this is too many points for Seattle to be laying...and according to my "TRUE LINE", this game should be closer to -5...And it appears that the Wiseguys agree because they have been Betti¨ng TAMPA BAY all week long...
More importantly, after getting their first bets down at +8.5 & +7.5...rather than work a "Middle"...they went ahead and took +7 again this morning, which is why this line is where it was...Otherwise, all the public money and teaser bets would have sent this one way up...VRComment
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Re: 12-20-09
Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers Dec 20 2009 4:05PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Reason: Play On: Cincinnati Bengals (Game 323) Note: The Bengals will look to regroup following the tragic loss of WR Chris Henry when they invade San diego to meet the Chargers. Our attraction to the Bengals is straightforward. Until last week’s bewildering loss at Minnesota, the average margin differential in 11 of Cincinnati’s 12 games this season was a tad less than a touchdown per game, meaning they’ve had a propensity for playing games close to the vest. On the other side of the coin, only three of San Diego’s 12 games this season have been settled by more than 10 points. Hence, a chess match in the making. Digging deeper, an examination of this year’s results finds the Chargers 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in games against .666 or less opposition. In the only two games in which they have squared off against foes with a greater than .666 record they are 0-2 SU and ATS, both losses as a favorite. Then there’s the ever-present Norv Turner factor, he and his 16-30 SU career mark in games against greater than .667 opponents, including 3-7 during the final four weeks of the season. We wrap it up with this scheduling gem from our database: non-division favorites in a one-game home stand off back-to-back road wins, the last as a dog with a road game on deck, have been in this role only six times since 1980 when hosting an opponent off one-loss exact. They are 0-6 ATS - losing EVERY GAME straight-up! It’s in spots like this that wins streaks in December come to an end. We recommend a 3-unit play on Cincinnati.Comment
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