6-27-10

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Re: 6-27-10

JEFF BENTON
Free play

The Dodgers dusted the Yankees on Saturday, so I’ve now nailed 9 of 12 freebies, and in addition to that, I’m on a 95-62-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, we’ll go back to the Dodgers-Yankees series and play the series finale UNDER the total.

For starters, first pitch in this one is 5:05 p.m. local time, meaning the notorious late-afternoon/early-evening Dodger Stadium shadows will come into play for about three or four innings, making life difficult for the hitters. And those hitters will have their hands full as it is, with southpaws Andy Pettitte (9-2, 2.48 ERA) and Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 3.24 ERA) squaring off.

Pettitte is in the midst of the best season of his tremendous career, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 12 of 14 starts (including the last six in a row). And Pettitte has been a workhorse, too, going at least seven innings in six straight starts and at least six innings in all but one outing. And check out Pettitte’s road starts this year:

6 innings, 1 run allowed
8 innings, 1 run allowed
8 innings, 2 runs allowed
7 2/3 innings, 2 runs allowed
7 innings, 2 runs allowed

Overall, he’s 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in five road games, and four of the five have stayed below the total.

As for Kershaw, he’s coming off one of his worst outings of the season (five runs allowed in six innings of a 6-3 loss at the Angels). But prior to that, he had given up a total of 11 earned runs over an eight-start stretch that covered 54 innings (1.83 ERA). In his last four home outings, he’s given up seven runs in 29 innings (2.17 ERA), with 34 strikeouts and one home run allowed in those 29 innings.

Neither offense is doing much against left-handed pitching (L.A. hits .237 at home against southpaws and was completely dominated by CC Sabathia on Friday; New York is batting .224 versus lefties over the past 10 games and only .258 on the road against lefties).

The under has cashed in six of the Yanks’ last eight against left-handed starters overall, five of seven on the road against lefties and 10 of 11 on the road against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, L.A. has stayed low in 17 of Kershaw’s last 24 starts overall.

(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)

5? Dodgers-Yankees UNDER

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Re: 6-27-10

luckysamsports

sam bambino

reds
cardinals

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Re: 6-27-10

Bob Balfe

England PK

Both teams could have played better in Group play and are very similarly matched on both sides of the ball. The difference here is that England already passed their speed bump in Group play and have since stepped up their defense and goaltending. Look for England to win in a thriller late in the match. Take England as a pick (-140).

Argentina -1

Argentina might be the best team remaining in the tournament and they will have no problem handling the speed of Mexico. Messi has proven he is the most thrilling player in the world and he has yet to score a goal. Look for Argentina to win the time of possession and advance with virtually no problems today. Take Argentina -1 (+115).


Pittsburgh Pirates +215

Ross Ohlendorf is winless this season, but will have a great shot against Gio Gonzalez, who was struggled and appears to be very inferior in his past few starts. Pittsburgh is not a good road team, but they have shown some signs of improvement and have hit the ball well (just never able to generate runs). This is a favorable line for Pittsburgh as Gonzalez is not a -200 caliber pitcher. Look for the Pirates to avoid the sweep today.

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Re: 6-27-10

R&R TOTALS
MLB | Jun 27

Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Total
9½ under
Free MLB Over-Under

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Re: 6-27-10

Scott Spreitzer
Free play

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: New York Yankees

It's rare to get Andy Pettitte at such an affordable price the way he's pitching this season. His ERA is 2.48 overall, and a stunning 1.96 on the road. Do you know how hard it is to post a number below 2.00 in the DH league?! Pettitte won't have to be facing a DH tonight either, with an NL team hosting the game. Clayton Kershaw is normally a guy I look to take at home. But he's outmatched here by Pettitte according to the ERA's. Kershaw is at 3.24 for the season, and 3.49 at home even though he doesn't pitch in the DH league. We've also seen this year that the Dodgers just don't matchup well at all against the American League powers, despite yesterday's results. They were embarrassed by the LA Angels in their rivalry sixpack this year, and they got swept last weekend in Boston. Given the Dodgers troubles with the best of the AL, and Pettitte's edges on the mound, this line gives us plenty of value with the visitor. Note also that the Dodgers have to play divisional rival San Francisco Monday Night, while New York has the day off. I'll take the guys in pinstripes. The Yankees are the play.

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Re: 6-27-10

MTi Sports
Free play

Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

The As know how to keep their foot on the throat of a struggling team. Oakland is The Athletics are a solid 22-4 as a home favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two, including 6-0 their last six. Also, the Athletics are 12-0 after shutting out their opponent and it is the last game of a series and 11-1 when hosting a team that has lost at least their last four games. The Pirates are a defeatist 0-10 as a 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and Pittsburgh is 1-12 in Ohlendorfs last 13 road starts. Take the As.

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Re: 6-27-10

Nick “ Bookie Killer” Parsons
Free play

England @ Germany
PICK: Germany

There are many options when wagering on soccer; this play is based off the greek Sports Book on Germany at a "pk" +106:

First off congratulations to everyone who got down on yesterday's "free play winner" on the OVER 2 goals scored between Uruguay and Korea Republic at +105; we'll look to keep things rolling here.

England and Germany have a storied history against each other in World Cup play; England scored a controverSIAl goal in the 1966 World Cup final and won 4-2 in extra time; the Germans came from 2-0 down to win at the 1970 tournament.

Germany won penalty-kick shootouts at the 1990 event and the 1996 European Championship and went on to win the titles in both of those tournaments.

Many "experts" around the World believe this game will go to penalty kicks, but I'm expecting the Germans to end this one in regulation.

England's road to the knock-out round hasn't been a thing of beauty, however Germany coach Joachim Loew won't be underestimating the English; "England is always England. It's a team with a lot of fighting spirit and very strong mentally, with incredible experience," Loew said. "The axis with John Terry, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney has the highest quality you can find in European football."

On the other side of the pitch: Germany features four players from the team that thrashed England in the final of the European Under-21 Championships in Sweden last summer.

"We might have a young team but we will be able to hold our own," Loew said.

Bottom line: Let's be clear; both of these teams have been inconsistent at best to this point.

Germany however is going to benefit greatly from the return of Miroslav Klose as the striker missed the Ghana match because of suspension.

Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, including England's star Wayne Rooney who has been struggling for form and fitness at this World Cup.

England has looked shaky at best leading up to this point; Germany's path to the knockout stage has not been nearly as fraught with difficulties as the English have experienced.

You may want to consider a second look at Germany in this situation as it's youth will look to take advantage of an over-rated English side.

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Re: 6-27-10

MARC LAWRENCE
Free play

San Diego Padres @ Florida Marlins
PICK: San Diego Padres

The Padres conclude their portion of Interleague play this season when they send local favorite Mat Latos to the mound in his hometown against the Marlins Sunday afternoon at Sun Life Stadium. Since switching from the left side of the rubber to the right side (to allow his slider better movement), Latos has found his groove, going 7-2 with a 1.81 ERA in nine team starts, including 12 walks and 62 strikeouts. We're not about to mess with the best-kept secret in MLB today, especially with Latos toiling as an underdog in front of family and friends and with the Padres currently 13-4 in their last 17 games against the N.L Central. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

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Re: 6-27-10

Sac Lawson
Free plays

BAL / WAS Under 9.5

Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound for the O's on Sunday, and although he's struggled lately, he definitely doesn't mind facing the cross-town rival Nationals. Guthrie has given up just 7 runs in 5 career starts against the Nats. He's in need of a strong bounce back game this afternoon, and historically the Nationals have easily provided that kinda performance for Guthrie. Obviously the O's bullpen is always a concern, but I've actually been impressed with their performance over the last couple days, and I wouldn't be surprised if Guthrie handed them the ball in the 6th or 7th and they were able to lock it down.

On the other side. Atilano is really starting to find himself in the majors. His last start was absolutely fantastic. He was getting plenty of ground balls, pitching to contact with efficiency, and limiting the walks as well. This is a guy with a fantastic sinker, he just has to trust himself enough to throw it over the plate. He's definitely getting there, and in my estimation, he's only going to improve off that last fine performance. On top of that, Clippard didn't throw yesterday, so we should have him for AT LEAST one inning in the 7th or 8th. He's the back bone of that Nationals pen, and on any day when he's out there, I expect the pen to be stout in the late innings.

This one is simple for me. Guthrie has great history against Washington, Atilano is on the rise, and both bullpens have shown some promise over the last week or so. 1 unit on the UNDER.


FLA (-110) vs SDP

Going with a rather large free play here. 1.5 units today on the Marlins. First thing's first. Latos is a guy that's been very very good lately, I can't deny that. He's been sound on the road all year long, and he flat out puts his team in a position to win games. This youngster has grown so much from last season it's not even funny. Last year he tried to strikeout everyone he faced, and has a result gave up far too many homeruns on high fastballs. This year, he's keeping the ball low in the zone, he's improved his changeup and he's keeping balls in the park, while at the same time simply pitching to contact. Definitely a good young pitcher, and a guy that often times gets overlooked in the discussion of up in coming pitchers simply because he plays for the Padres.

BUT, if there is one thing that is apparent with Latos, it's that he's not comfortable against Florida. Earlier this year he gave up 7 earned in just 2 innings against Florida, and in his only other career start he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings. He simply does not match up well with the power hitting righties (even though he's a righty himself), and if there is one thing every single coach I've talked to has told me, it's that Latos is a(n) "idiot, nut case, dim wit, mentally challenged, etc." The guy thinks too much, basically. And a team like Florida, that has had some success against him, that'll wear on this kid. He's far from mature, and far from "smart." He's the kinda guy that knows how poorly his pitched against Florida in his career, and whatever confidence he comes into this game with, probably won't exist in that brain of his. Don't get me wrong, the kid has talent, but I've watched this kid since he was 18 years old, and these are the spots he struggles in. He'll overthink out there and get himself into trouble early. At least that's what I'm counting on.

On the other side, Sanchez was probably the best pitcher in the majors during the month of May. He only gave up 8 runs in 6 starts. Absolutely amazing. And he has definitely fallen back to reality a bit in June. But the guy is still sharp, and he's cut down on his walks a great deal. We don't need a miracle from Sanchez today, we just need to give his bullpen a lead. Florida's pen is very strong in the late innings, it's the middle relief we need to avoid.

We have some wind blowing out to left today, and tons of power righties at the plate for Florida. Latos has had trouble with home runs in his career, don't be surprised if those issues pop up again. I understand that San Diego is the better bullpen, and a team that flat out wins, but I believe they'll be playing from behind right from the start this afternoon. Take Florida for 1.5 units!

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Re: 6-27-10

JSM Sports
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-June 27th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[962] Was/Bal |8*|UNDER|9.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:35 pm EST

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Re: 6-27-10

Hot pitchers
-- Latos is 3-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- Moyer is 3-1, 1.36 in his last four starts in Philly.
-- Arroyo is 2-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
-- Mets won last four Niese starts (3-0, 3.25).
-- Tigers are 8-1 with Verlander when they score more than three runs, 0-4 when they don't. Hanson is 2-0, 0.66 in his last two home starts.
-- Danks is 3-0, 2.05 in his last three starts. Dempster has a 2.45 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Vargas is 2-0, 1.31 in his last three starts.
-- Chacin is 1-1, 1.54 in his last two starts.
-- JGarcia is 6-2, 2.17 in his last eleven starts.
-- Rangers are 4-0 when Hunter starts (3-0, 3.09). Oswalt is 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 8-1, 2.09 in his last 12 starts. Lincecum is 3-0, 2.05 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers won seven of last nine Kershaw starts. Pettitte is 4-1, 2.66 in his last six outings.

Cold pitchers
-- ASanchez is 2-2, 5.04 in his last four starts.
-- Cecil is 0-2, 9.00 in his last couple starts (11 runs/11 IP).
-- Talbot is 0-2, 8.10 in his last three starts.
-- Baker is 1-2, 4.97 in his last four starts.
-- Lopez is 1-4, 5.81 in his last seven starts.
-- Atilano is 1-3, 5.81 in his last four starts. Guthrie is 0-5, 5.57 in his last five outings.
-- Davis is 0-4, 7.32 in his last four starts.
-- Chen is 2-2, 4.67 in five starts this season.
-- Narveson has a 6.47 RA in his last six starts.
-- GGonzalez is 0-2, 5.71 in his last three starts. Pirates lost last four Ohlendorf starts (0-3, 7.04).
-- ESantana is 1-2, 7.41 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- 11 of last 14 games at Citi Field stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Padre road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-5 in last seventeen Washington road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Arizona games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-0-1 in last ten Hanson starts.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen Oswalt starts.
-- Eight of last ten Cardinal games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Milwaukee games.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Oakland home games.
-- Under is 9-2 in last eleven Colorado road games.
-- Eight of last eleven Dodger home games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight San Francisco home games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won 13 of their last 16 home games.
-- Phillies won six of their last nine games. .
-- Padres are 18-8 in their last 26 road games.
-- Orioles won their last three games, scoring 24 runs.
-- White Sox won their last 11 games, allowing total of 24 runs.
-- Braves won 15 of their last 16 home games.
-- Reds won their last five games, allowing 13 runs.
-- Rangers won 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Brewers are 10-5 in their last fifteen games at Miller Park. Mariners won seven of their last nine games..
-- Angels won 16 of their last 23 games. Rockies won six of last nine.
-- Bronx won six of its last nine games.
-- A's are now 8-0 against the Pirates in interleague play.
-- Giants won seven of their last nine home games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Twins are 10-17 in their last 27 road games.
-- Cubs are 8-16 in their last twenty-four games.
-- Astros lost 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Blue Jays are 4-9 in last 13 games away from Toronto.
-- Tigers lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
-- Nationals lost ten of their last eleven road games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last eleven road games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Arizona is 2-16 in its last 18 road games. Rays are 7-11 in their last eighteen home games.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Pirates lost their last 16 road games.
-- Dodgers lost seven of their last nine games.

Umpires
-- SD-Fla-- Five of last six Bell games went over the total.
-- Min-NY-- Favorite won six of last seven Davis games.
-- Phil-Tor-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Drake games.
-- StL-KC-- Home team won five of last six Demuth games; favorites are 9-2 in his last eleven games behind the dish.
-- Hat-Tex-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Reilly games.
-- Az-TB-- Five of last six Fletcher games stayed under the total.
-- Det-Atl-- Underdogs are 4-2 (+$359) in last six Hickox games.
-- army.com is North America's favorite website.
-- Sea-Mil-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Estabrook games.
-- Wsh-Balt-- Under is 9-3 in Tschida's last 12 games behind plate.
-- Clev-Cin-- Five of last six Barrett games went over the total.
-- Bos-SF-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Dimuro games.
-- NY-LA-- Under is 7-3-2 in last dozen Guccione games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Four of last five Darling games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-A's-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Kulpa games.
-- Col-LA-- Home team won six of last eight Runge games.

AL leads NL 125-113 in interleague play, after AL went 10-4 in games Saturday; as far as totals go, over is 107-105-8-63-47-3 in NL parks, 44-58-5 in AL stadiums, which makes little sense, since DH games are expected to be higher scoring, but they haven't been. Under was 11-3-1 Saturday, as the Year of the Pitcher continues.

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Re: 6-27-10

TRENDS

PHILADELPHIA vs. TORONTO
Philadelphia is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 9 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games
Florida is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home

MINNESOTA vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Mets's last 11 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Mets's last 14 games at home

DETROIT vs. ATLANTA
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Detroit

WASHINGTON vs. BALTIMORE
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

ARIZONA vs. TAMPA BAY
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

CHI CUBS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi Cubs are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 8 games

SEATTLE vs. MILWAUKEE
Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Seattle is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

ST. LOUIS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

COLORADO vs. LA ANGELS
Colorado is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
LA Angels are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing Colorado
LA Angels are 16-7 SU in their last 23 games

PITTSBURGH vs. OAKLAND
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

BOSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
San Francisco is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

NY YANKEES vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games at home
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home

HOUSTON vs. TEXAS
Houston is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games at home

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Re: 6-27-10

Sports Book Edge
5-1 This week

Ariz.D'backs/TB Rays Over 9½

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Re: 6-27-10

Billy Irish
5-1 this week

Texas Rangers -165

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Re: 6-27-10

MVPCapper Sports

MLB: LOS ANGELES DODGERS -110