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This match-up was just played Wednesday in Boston and, even with a respectable start from Matt Garza, the game still flew over the total. Daisuke Matsuzaka got crushed and, with a rematch less than week later, there is reason to believe both hurlers will get crushed in this one. The Rays offense is heating up again as they’ve scored at least five runs in seven of their last ten games. As for the Red Sox, they are 6-0 in games played on artificial turf this season and bring some extra confidence to Tropicana Field as a result. Boston was held to just one run by lefty Brian Matusz of the Orioles yesterday but, previously, the Red Sox had averaged six runs per game in their last nine games. Look for much more success for Boston against Garza in a quick “second look”. Keep in mind, Boston’s recent offensive surge at the plate has been even with some key sticks missing so don’t put too much weight into that. Also note that Boston’s bullpen ERA currently ranks as the worst in the American League.
The Red Sox are 20-14 to the over in divisional games this season and Matsuzaka has not been able to find the plate in his recent outings. He’s walked eight batters in his last two starts and he’s also 2-5 in his career against Tampa Bay. The Rays are 21-12 to the over against teams with a winning record on the season and they’ve gone over the total in five of their last six games as their offense heats up again. Garza’s ERA has gone from 2.37 in late May to it’s current 4.08 mark and we look for his troubles with the home run ball against the Red Sox to continue. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Wrigley breezes benefitted those big Cincinnati bats, and dispatched the Cubbies out West, in a dither. Under those circumstances, can't imagine the Chicagoans are looking forward to playing a day game, today, especially with no day off. Zona pitching no bargain, but Ian Kennedy's acquitting himself adequately this season, and Cub regular-season record in this locale over the years has been awful. Look for the D-Backs to jump out early, and coast home.
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Yankees begin a seven-game West Coast trip with a three-game series in Oakland. They've reached the midpoint of the 2010 season at 50-31 (on pace for 100 wins), which is the best record in MLB but they are still in a real fight in the AL East (Red Sox are 1 1/2 games back and the Rays two games back). The A's are 41-42 (just past the midpoint), eight games behind the first-place Rangers and 4 1/2 games behind the Angels. The A's have "hung tough" with some solid pitching, ranking 7th in MLB with a 3.85 ERA. Oakland returns home from a 4-2 road trip where its starters went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. The A's have won their last three home games and are 24-16 on the season in Oakland. The pitching matchup is Vazquez and Sheets. The Yanks had hoped that Vazquez would be able to match his excellent 2009 season with Atlanta (15-10, 2.87 ERA), here in his second go-round with the Yankees. However, that hasn't been the case, as he's 6-7 with a 5.11 ERA (team is 6-8). That's a sad record when pitching for MLB's best team. The A's took a chance on Sheets this year, signing him to a $10 million, one-year deal despite the fact he had missed all of last year after arm surgery. He's 3-7 with a 4.98 ERA in 17 starts with the A's going 6-11. Clearly, Sheets is healthy but the A's expected more. A closer look does reveal some positives. He's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of 17 starts and that includes SIX of his eight home starts. Sheets has been AWFUL on the road (0-5 witha 6.66 ERA / team is 1-8) but here at home is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA (team is 5-3). His home record is pretty solid while Vazquez owns a 5.76 road ERA. Also note that the Yankees are 15-10 on the road vs righties (but just plus-$100 vs moneyline) while the A's are 19-11 in home night games vs righties, going plus-$785 vs the moneyline. I'm taking a shot with the home dog.
The Cubs are 0-8 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and the Diamondbacks are 6-0 THIS season as a favorite in the first game of a home series. Further, Chicago is a very poor 3-17 as a dog in their first game of a road series and 0-4 in franchise history with Tom Gorzelanny when they won the last time he started vs this opponent. Consider laying this small price.
Milwaukee has been one of the most predictably unpredictable teams in the majors. They can look like minor leaguers 1 day and world champions the next. Today, we'll lean towards the world champion-like side; after all, they've alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games. The Brewers, coming off a loss yesterday, are a healthy 17-8 with David Bush on the mound as a favorite. We'll look for the Brewers to give Bush, who's coming off 3 respectable starts, good run support. Milwaukee is 5-1 at home vs lefty starters and should tag Sanchez who has not had success vs Milwaukee with a bloated 10.38 ERA over 4 starts. Sanchez is 7-19 when cast as a road dog with SF. And SF, which is coming off a 15 inning marathon loss yesterday should stay in their funk dropping to 1-9 over their last 10
Wrigley breezes benefited those big Cincinnati bats, and dispatched the Cubbies out West, in a dither. Under those circumstances, can't imagine the Chicagoans are looking forward to playing a day game, today, especially with no day off. Zona pitching no bargain, but Ian Kennedy's acquitting himself adequately this season, and Cub regular-season record in this locale over the years has been awful. Look for the D-Backs to jump out early, and coast home.
The Reds have been impressive this year, but New York at home has been money in the bank and Mike Pelfrey has been on fire. In my opinion, he is on the verge of becoming a household name. This should be a good series between two teams that might meet again in September or October playing for a spot in the World Series. Take New York.
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