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Tonight's AL contest between the Tigers and Rays is one of those rare occasions where we support a home favorite on the run-line, this due to several factors that heavily favor the Florida squad.
Eddie Bonine takes the pill to the hill, his first start of the season because Sunday's doubleheader against Toronto forced the coaching staff to alter the team's rotation. The right-hander has made 31 relief appearances in 2010 and is 3-2 with a 4.38 ERA in nine career starts. The 28-year-old had trouble getting Triple-A hitters out, 4.43 ERA in 83.1 innings and has an extremely mediocre skill set, 4.4 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9. He has an ERA of 4.52 in seven minor league seasons. His K/9 at Triple-A was a low 4.5 and. his K/BB ratio in his all of his major league starts is 9/6.
Jeff Niemann will try to send the Tigers to their ninth consecutive road defeat, this against a lineup that is missing three key pieces to their offensive success (Guillen, Ordonez and Inge). Niemann has received two runs or more from his offense in 15 starts this season. He is 8-0 in those outings - all of which have resulted in Tampa Bay victories
Backing home favorites (Tampa Bay) on the run-line starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better against a team (Detroit) that strikes out seven or more times per game, this when the oddsmakers open the money line at -170 or larger, has cashed at 170-72 (70%) clip over the last five campaigns with the average margin of victory of nearly three runs.
Texas just flat out has the better line-up and bullpen right now than Oakland. The A's have not been a good road team this season, while the Rangers are 35-20 at home this season. Texas also has won four of their last five games and is coming off of an exciting extra innings win last night against Oakland. The starting pitchers are basically a wash in this match-up with both having relatively similar statistics. Both pitchers have done fairly well against their opposing line-ups, but Trevor Cahill was hit very hard by Texas in a start last season. I feel that Texas has a hotter hitting line-up now, and Colby Lewis has the potential to shutdown the A's with his good strikeout-to-walk ratio. Also, I feel that the game will be fairly tight until the last few innings when Texas will use their better bullpen and better hitting to win the game.
SIDES
1-Unit Play. Take #955 Atlanta (-140) over Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 28
1-Unit Play. Take #980 Chicago White Sox (-165) over Seattle (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Minnesota (-135) over Kansas City (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #951 Chicago Cubs (-140) over Houston (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #953 Cincinnati (-120) over Milwaukee (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #964 Colorado (-1.5, -110) over Pittsburgh (8:40 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
TOTALS
3.5-Unit Play. Take Under 8.0 Seattle at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
3-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 Minnesota at Kansas City (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
3-Unit Play. Take Under 7.5 Atlanta at Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 7.5 Arizona at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
1-Unit Play. Take Under 8.0 Florida at San Francisco (10 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 Baltimore at Toronto (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 28)
MLB Baseball:
10* AL Game of the Week: Boston RedSox +105
5* KC Royals +125
4* NY Mets -130
The Boston Red Sox face an uphill climb to return to the postseason, but a roster slowly regaining its health is making that climb look more realistic.
A healthy, rejuvenated Josh Beckett would be one of the biggest pieces to the puzzle.
Making his second start since coming off the disabled list, Beckett looks to lead the Red Sox to a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels and a winning record on their 10-game road trip, which concludes Wednesday afternoon in Anaheim.
Beckett is a better pitcher on the road with fewer walks and his ERA is 1 full run lower.
I expect BOSTON to win this afternoon and get the 3-game sweep!
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