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Re: 7-28-10
Dan Bebe | MLB Money Line Wed, 07/28/10 - 7:10 PM
triple-dime bet 962 NYM (-121) Bookmaker.com vs 961 STL
Analysis: Game of the Week time, very exciting!
I absolutely love this play, as is contains almost all the vital elements that I look for in an MLB selection.
First, the biggest key, the Mets are on the upswing, and the Cards continue to struggle on the road. New York got home off a BRUTAL road trip (2-9), and proceeded to rattle off hit after hit, crushing the Cardinals ace last night with a relentless attack that showed, firmly, that the Mets just want to play at home. The Mets are a team on the rebound, and we're getting great prices on them because of that horrible stretch to start the second half. Now, with the team getting things in order, the world hasn't qu‚ite caught up yet, and we're still able take advantage of extremely affordable prices on a team that, as we've seen, can get super hot, especially at home.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been a machine at home, and a broken machine on the road. I know the numbers aren't that severe in contrast, but if you have watched the recent Cardinals road efforts, it's pretty clear that they don't play smart on the road, and have been fighting through some offensive issues (including baserunning mistakes). They're 1-4 in their last 5 games, so the Cards are in a bit of a rut, and the Mets are a team suddenly playing with great confidence again, and why not when you've got the best 2nd half pitcher in baseball taking the hill?
Johan Santana, and everyone seems to forget, annually, that he's usually "pretty darn good" in the first half, but has his ups and downs, then just goes nuts in the 2nd half. Santana saw the calendar flip to July, and he's been on another plane ever since. This will be Santana's 6th start of the month, and thus far, in the previous 5, Johan has gone 38 innings and allowed 3 runs. For those counting at home, that's an ERA of less than three-quarters of a run. So, he's back, the Mets have won his last 4 straight starts, including the only 2 Mets wins on their recent 2-9 road trip, and now he takes aim at a club that he's dominated in a handful of starts. Only Albert Pujols has any success against Santana, and it's pretty clear that you can pitch around Albert when the Cards are on the road.
I will admit, Jaime Garcia is having a very strong season, and he probably won't get shelled like Wainwright did, yesterday, but I love the Mets aggressive nature, at home, and I think he'll give up 2-3 runs in about 6 innings. The key here is that Garcia is still a very young arm, and over the course of the season some slight fatigue sets in, and I also think the Cards will be careful with his innings, so he probably won't go deeper than 6+, barring some extremely easy innings.
The other real key to this game is the Mets bullpen work, at home in particular. The Mets pen has an UNREAL home ERA of just 1.86, while the Cards pen has a road ERA of almost 4. The splits are just silly -- the Mets bullpen ERA on the season is 3.54, so you can see how much they prefer pitching at Citi Field.
The only thing that can truly beat us in this game is the longball -- if Santana and the Mets pen can keep Pujols in the yard, we're in tremendous shape, and at a wonderful price.
The Mets are going to bring home the bacon, and I'll be waiting with eggs and toast. Play on NYM!
Dan Bebe | MLB Money Line Wed, 07/28/10 - 7:10 PM
triple-dime bet 962 NYM (-121) Bookmaker.com vs 961 STL
Analysis: Game of the Week time, very exciting!
I absolutely love this play, as is contains almost all the vital elements that I look for in an MLB selection.
First, the biggest key, the Mets are on the upswing, and the Cards continue to struggle on the road. New York got home off a BRUTAL road trip (2-9), and proceeded to rattle off hit after hit, crushing the Cardinals ace last night with a relentless attack that showed, firmly, that the Mets just want to play at home. The Mets are a team on the rebound, and we're getting great prices on them because of that horrible stretch to start the second half. Now, with the team getting things in order, the world hasn't qu‚ite caught up yet, and we're still able take advantage of extremely affordable prices on a team that, as we've seen, can get super hot, especially at home.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been a machine at home, and a broken machine on the road. I know the numbers aren't that severe in contrast, but if you have watched the recent Cardinals road efforts, it's pretty clear that they don't play smart on the road, and have been fighting through some offensive issues (including baserunning mistakes). They're 1-4 in their last 5 games, so the Cards are in a bit of a rut, and the Mets are a team suddenly playing with great confidence again, and why not when you've got the best 2nd half pitcher in baseball taking the hill?
Johan Santana, and everyone seems to forget, annually, that he's usually "pretty darn good" in the first half, but has his ups and downs, then just goes nuts in the 2nd half. Santana saw the calendar flip to July, and he's been on another plane ever since. This will be Santana's 6th start of the month, and thus far, in the previous 5, Johan has gone 38 innings and allowed 3 runs. For those counting at home, that's an ERA of less than three-quarters of a run. So, he's back, the Mets have won his last 4 straight starts, including the only 2 Mets wins on their recent 2-9 road trip, and now he takes aim at a club that he's dominated in a handful of starts. Only Albert Pujols has any success against Santana, and it's pretty clear that you can pitch around Albert when the Cards are on the road.
I will admit, Jaime Garcia is having a very strong season, and he probably won't get shelled like Wainwright did, yesterday, but I love the Mets aggressive nature, at home, and I think he'll give up 2-3 runs in about 6 innings. The key here is that Garcia is still a very young arm, and over the course of the season some slight fatigue sets in, and I also think the Cards will be careful with his innings, so he probably won't go deeper than 6+, barring some extremely easy innings.
The other real key to this game is the Mets bullpen work, at home in particular. The Mets pen has an UNREAL home ERA of just 1.86, while the Cards pen has a road ERA of almost 4. The splits are just silly -- the Mets bullpen ERA on the season is 3.54, so you can see how much they prefer pitching at Citi Field.
The only thing that can truly beat us in this game is the longball -- if Santana and the Mets pen can keep Pujols in the yard, we're in tremendous shape, and at a wonderful price.
The Mets are going to bring home the bacon, and I'll be waiting with eggs and toast. Play on NYM!
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