If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Eleven of Hernandez' 49 career losses have come against Texas, while no other opponent has beaten him more than seven times.
His two latest experiences against manager Ron Washington's club were among his worst. Hernandez gave up five runs over 4 1-3 innings in a 6-3 home loss May 1, then surrendered seven runs over six innings in a 7-1 road defeat June 8.
While Young is a .317 lifetime hitter versus Hernandez, Elvis Andrus and Josh Hamilton have combined to go 8 for 16 against him this year with three doubles and a homer.
Hernandez is 0-3 in four starts since the All-Star break while the Mariners (40-68) have only scored three runs for him.
Tommy Hunter is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in five starts against Seattle and is 8-1 this season overall.
Both of these starters do well in the respective roles they're cast in tonight: Lincecum is 6-1 vs the Braves with a 2.70 ERA. And he is 1-6 O/U in those outings. Jurrjens, on the other hand, is a rock solid home pitcher and sports a 4-21 mark as a starter in game 1 of a series, 2-7 O/U vs a team with a winning record, and 6-13 O/U in his last 19 starts overall. Jurrjens controls a respectable 2.61 ERA in 3 starts vs the Giants. And the bullpen is throwing well over the last few weeks (1.61 ERA) but the Braves' lineup has not been a big run producer over the last few weeks (3.3 rpg over last 10). "Under" the call.
This game fits a 100% MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs per game. What we want to do is play the over for certain road favorites off a home win of 5 or more runs in vs an opponent off a home loss of 5 or more runs. The Rockies knocked off SF on Wednesday and now take on a Pirates team that was beaten good at home by thew Reds. Four of the 6 have gone over here in the series. The Rockies are averaging over 6 runs per game on .312 hitting the past week. The Pirates have youngster J. McDonald on the mound and he has been dreadful with a 7.20 era over his last 3 starts. Colorado counters with J. Francis. Francis has a 4.59 road era and a 6.67 era vs the Pirates. Look for this game to go over the total.
Giants / Braves Over
This game has a huge system attached tonight. Play the over for road favorites of less than -140 if the total is 8 or less and they are off a road dog loss, scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits with 5 or more men left on base and are taking on an opponent off a home favored win where they scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits. With Lincecum pitching the total is low at 7. However the Giants have played over in 8 of his 10 starts and he did allow 4 runs in 5 innings here in Atlanta. The Braves have J. Jurjens on the mound and he has a 4.67 era this year as he tries to capture in pre injury form. The Giants are averaging over 5 runs per game on .280 hitting the past week, and this game should fly over the total.
Whereas the 0-3/7.20 of Roy Oswalt since the All Star break could be a sign of future struggles to some, we instead see opportunity. There is absolutely nothing wrong with his stuff (he went into the break off of back-to-back shutouts), and even in those three defeats it has been a 4:1 ratio of K’s to W’s. His own take on a sloppy outing in his first start as a Phillie was that he had a little too much adrenaline, and took time to settle into a flow, and tonight we expect to see the Oswalt that Philadelphia dealt for, a steady veteran that can have an impact in the pennant race, and one that has worked to a 2.97 on the road this season. But with questions about the offense behind him sans Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino, we will let the total be our path.
Yes, the Phillies have scored 13 runs in the first two games of this series. But a big part of Tuesday’s output came from Marlin defensive miscues. A misplayed fly ball by Cody Ross in CF had to be ruled a hit, which made unearned runs show as earned; Dan Uggla committed multiple errors, but was only charged with one, because of that “you can not assume a double play” scoring rule; and Hector Luna had two different balls go off of his glove at 3B that were ruled hits. Last night the seven runs came via a lone extra base hit, with the Marlin pitching staff giving up seven W’s. So let’s grade the Phillies as who they are, a team that does not bring a lot of sock from the bottom of the order, and until Jimmy Rollins finds his game (still mired at .243), not all that much at the top either.
Chris Volstad has worked to a 3.65 at home this season, with his only start from this mound since the All Star break a solid outing vs. Atlanta, and he is one of those idea “value” fits, a guy that does not generate market excitement, which helps to keep those 8’s in play, but brings more than enough for our purposes.
Comment