7-4-11

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Washington Nationals ML
SF Giants RL
Chicago White Sox RL

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

Under 10 runs bet. Texas and Baltimore

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MLB
Write-Up


Monday, July 4

Hot pitchers
-- Washington won last five Zimmerman starts (3-0, 1.05).
-- Maholm is 2-1, 1.99 in his last five starts.
-- DHudson is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts.
-- Richard is 2-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts. Lincecum is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three outings.
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 1.69 in his last couple starts. Worley is 2-0, 1.00 in his last three outings.
-- Cueto is 3-0, 1.77 in his last five starts. Carpenter is 2-0, 1.13 in his last couple starts.
-- Hanson is 4-0, 2.16 in his last four starts. Jimenez is 3-2, 3.57 in his last six starts- he pitched a no-hitter in Atlanta LY.
-- Capuano is 4-1, 2.70 in his last five starts.

-- Morrow is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 1-0, 2.30 in his last couple starts.
-- Tomlin is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts. Burnett is 2-2, 3.08 in his last four outings.
-- Buehrle is 3-1, 3.06 in his last five starts.
-- Lewis is 2-0, 1.77 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Coleman is 1-4, 8.64 in his last six starts.
-- Myers is 1-3, 4.63 in his last five starts.
-- Marcum is 0-1, 8.00 in his last three starts.
-- de la Rosa is 0-3, 5.60 in his last three starts.

-- Lackey has a 5.28 RA in five starts since coming off the DL.
-- Duensing is 2-2, 6.41 in his last four starts.
-- McCarthy was 0-3, 5.88 in his last five starts before going on DL. Pineda is 1-2, 4.38 in his last four starts.
-- Francis is 1-4, 5.97 in his last five starts.
-- Jakubauskus has a 6.64 RA in his last four starts.
-- Furbush is making first big league start; he is 1-1, 2.49 in his 12 relief (21.1 IP) appearances. He was 4-3, 2.91 in eight AAA starts. Pineiro is 1-3, 5.98 in his last eight starts.

Totals
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs' last five road games.
-- Three of last four Myers starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-4-1 in last twelve DHudson starts.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants' last five home games.
-- Six of Phillies' last nine games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine St Louis home games.
-- Five of last seven Atlanta home games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Capuano starts stayed under the total.

-- Over is 11-2-1 in last fourteen games at Fenway Park.
-- Six of last nine Tampa Bay road games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4 in Seattle's last dozen road games.
-- Five of last six Cleveland home games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five White Sox home games stayed under total.
-- Six of seven Lewis home starts went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Detroit's last ten road games.

Hot Teams
-- Pittsburgh won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Giants won nine of their last twelve games. Padres won five of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last six games.
-- Braves won ten of their last thirteen games.

-- Red Sox won their last four games, scoring 24 runs.
-- Minnesota won 11 of its last 13 home games. Tampa Bay is 11-4 in its last fifteen games overall.
-- Bronx won seven of its last eight games. Indians won four of their last six games, but are 5-10 in their last 15 home games.
-- Angels won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost five of its last seven games. Cubs lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Astros lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Arizona lost six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost seven of their last ten games. Mets lost three of their last four games.

-- Toronto lost five of its last seven games.
-- Oakland lost seven of its last eleven games. Mariners lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Royals lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Orioles lost 14 of their last 19 road games.
-- Detroit lost five of its last seven road games.

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Sportsbook Investing

Play of the Day:

Braves -140 over Rockies

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Valley Sports


3* LA Dodgers (De La Rosa) Over NY Mets (Capuano)
3* Boston (Lackey) / Toronto (Morrow) Under The Total
2* Washington (Zimmerman) Over Chicago Cubs (Coleman)
2* Boston (Lackey) Over Toronto (Morrow)

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Deano 7/4

Millionaire’s Club Premium Pick-7/4

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

Mets | +105

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Monday
Play San Francisco (-200) over San Diego (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 5:10 PM EST

San Francisco has won 9 of the last 12 games and they have also won 16 of the last 21 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers. Tim Lincecum has won 5 of the last 6 home games as a favorite of -200 to -225 and he has an ERA of 1.35 over the last three overall starts.

Play Texas (-185) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Baltimore has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 29 of the last 37 games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games. Chris Jakubauskas has lost 5 of the last 6 road games and he has an ERA of 6.60 over the last three overall starts.
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Play Tampa Bay (-155) over Minnesota (Bonus)

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National Sports Service

4* Pittsburgh (Maholm) -130 over Houston (Meyers)
3* Milwaukee (Marcum) -135 over Arizona (Hudson)
3* N.Y. Yankees (Burnett) -125 over Cleveland (Tomlin)

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Monday ML Baseball

MINNESOTA DUENSING -L +1.5 Runs, -115 over Tampa Bay

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TodaysPicks

1. Tigers
2. Dodgers
3. Rockies
4. Phillies

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Insider Sports Report

4* Cincinnati (Cueto)/St. Louis (Carpenter) UNDER 7.5
Range: 8 to 7

3* Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) -145 over Kansas City (Francis)
Range: -130 to -170

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Lines2win 7/4

Mets ML +100 (small)
TB Rays Under 7.5 -110 (med)
Pirates Under 7.5 -115 (med)
Reds Over 7.5 +100 (small)

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Chris Jordan


300 pirates (135 pm start)

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Keith Glantz

100* Braves
25* Reds
25* Tigers

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SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +114 over L.A. ANGELS

The Tigers are glad interleague play is over and so are most fans, as this novelty has worn itself out long ago. The Angels are hot with six straight series wins in a row but this isn’t a favorable matchup. Joel Pineiro has some good games under his belt and a somewhat respectable 4.14 ERA but he’s showing signs of trouble. Pineiro has struck out just 33 batters all year in 76 innings. He has great control but he’s extremely hittable and these Tigers are very familiar with him. In fact, Pineiro is 1-3 against the Tigers in his last five starts against them with an ERA of 5.87. Additionally, Pineiro has a 4.97 ERA at The Big A and we’ve seen a xERA regression from him for three straight months and with the Tigers bats still hot (.299 BA over the last month), Pineiro could be in for a short outing. Charlie Furbish has had success in the minors as a starter and is much more comfortable in that role. He’ll make his starting debut here under the tutelage of Tigers new pitching coach Jeff Jones. Furbush is a tall and deceptive lefty who finished 2nd in the minors in strikeouts in '10 and was leading the International League this season prior to his call-up. He may lack a true plus pitch, but he messes with hitters' timing by hiding the ball in his delivery. Furbush mixes his offerings impeccably and he knows how to set up hitters. His fastball velocity is merely average (87-93 mph), but his slow curveball plays up due to its downward action. Play: Detroit +114 (Risking 2 units).


Toronto +122 over BOSTON

A three-game sweep in Houston over the weekend is nice but the Astros own the worst record in the majors with at least five more losses than the next worst team. Prior to that the Red Sox lost three straight series to the Phillies, Pirates and Padres and they weren’t scoring runs against any of those teams. Now the Red Sox will have to face Brandon Morrow and Morrow is on he’s one of the best. Morrow was outstanding in the second half last year and he’s gaining steam again this season. Over his last three starts, Morrow is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA after striking out 25 and walking five in 20.2 innings. Meanwhile, John Lackey is batting practice out there for these Blue Jays. Lackey has gone 2-3 with an 8.83 ERA over his last six starts against Toronto and that’s when he was better than he is now. Lackey’s overall skills have been regressing and he’s now struck out just 43 batters while walking 27 in 70 IP. He has a 6.81 ERA to go along with a 1.56 WHIP and at Fenway this year his ERA is 7.88 in six starts. To put this into perspective even more, if Morrow were a Red Sox and Lackey were a Blue Jay, the Red Sox would be a 2½-1 favorite today. Big value on Morrow taking back a tag here. Play: Toronto +122 (Risking 2 units).