7-21-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (+140, 7.5)

The Detroit Tigers look to continue their dominance over the Minnesota Twins when they start a 4-game series Thursday night. Detroit is 5-0 against them this year and has won nine straight overall.

First pitch from Target Field will be at 5:10 p.m. (PT). Justin Verlander looks to bounce back from his worst performance in weeks, while Carl Pavano gets the unenviable opposing assignment.

Detroit (51-45) is tied with Cleveland for the AL Central lead. The Tigers are 2-2 since the All-Star break, and were 130 favorites for Wednesday’s home game with Oakland (result pending).

Verlander (12-5, 2.29 ERA) carried the Tigers starters in the first half and his season ERA is more than two runs lower than the next regular starter. However, while Max Scherzer, Brad Penny and Rick Porcello opened the second half with quality starts, the ace came up short last Friday against the White Sox.

Verlander allowed four earned runs over six innings in an 8-2 loss. The White Sox only had seven hits, but they were timely. He was incredible (8-1, .75 ERA) in his nine starts before the break. The ‘under’ went 8-1.

The 28-year-old right-hander missed the first two series against the Twins this year. He’s 7-7 with a 3.71 ERA lifetime against them, but just 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA in Minnesota. His one start at the new Target Field was last September, allowing six runs (three earned) over six innings in a wild 10-9 win.

The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in Verlander’s last nine starts against Minnesota.

The Twins (45-51) got a crucial 2-run, ninth inning rally against Cleveland on Tuesday (2-1 victory). They’re now six games out in the Central after dropping the first two against the Tribe. Wednesday’s series finale is still pending.

Minnesota has struggled to hit since the break (3.4 runs per game), despite being at home. The ‘under’ is 5-0-1 in its last six games.

Pavano (6-6, 4.08 ERA) has one of the worst strikeout rates in the AL (3.88) , but he’s only walked 25 guys in 130 innings and his OPS allowed is a respectable .734.

The 35-year-old right-hander started the second half versus Kansas City last Saturday, allowing three earned runs over seven innings in a 4-3 win. It was his third straight quality start and his ERA is 2.82 since June (Minny going 6-2) compared to 5.19 before (Minny going 3-8).

Pavano is playing with fire lately, surrendering a home run in his last five starts. He’s pitched much better at home overall (2.90 ERA), compared to away (5.07 ERA).

This is Pavano’s first start against the Tigers this year. He’s 5-2 with a 3.79 ERA lifetime against them. He faced them three times last year (5.49 ERA), all on the road.

The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Minnesota and Detroit meetings this year and 7-2 in the last nine.

Minnesota lost its two home games to the Tigers in May, but was 14-4 at home against them the last two years. The Twins are 24-22 at home this year (+0.9 units), but 17-6 in their last 23.

The Tigers are just 22-24 on the road this season (-.8 units), compared to 29-21 at home (+9.0 units). However, they’re 4-1 in their last five away.

Minnesota has hitters Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Denard Span still on the DL, although the latter two are close to returning. Detroit doesn’t have any significant injuries.

Weather will be clear and around 80 degrees. Friday night’s game will be Scherzer against Brian Duensing, with late afternoon tilts for both weekend contests.

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Javier Vazquez (6-8, 5.14 ERA), Florida Marlins

Maybe this guy’s major league career isn’t over yet. A month ago he might have been the worst starting pitcher in the majors but Vazquez, like many Marlins, is turning things around. He sports a 2.25 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and a 17-1 strikeout to walk ratio in July.

The Marlins are 3-0 in his last three starts and 4-1 in his last five appearances. The Fish were underdogs in four of those five games, too.

"He's throwing strikes, that's the main thing," Marlins manager Jack McKeon said after Vazquez’s latest outing, a 13-3 win over the Cubs. "He's changing speeds."

Jered Weaver (12-4, 1.90 ERA), Los Angeles Angels

Okay, we’re not breaking any big news here. Jered Weaver is really, really good. This guy’s pitched 11 straight quality starts and he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his trips to the bump this season.

The Halos are 5-1 in Weaver’s last six appearances and they were a big favorite in just one of those games. The under is also 8-2-2 in his last Weaver’s last 12 starts.


SLUMPING

Ricky Romero (7-9, 3.18 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays

It’s not a good sign for a ball club if this is your No. 1 starting pitcher. Romero’s got ace stuff but he’s been walking too many batters and getting knocked out early in his last couple appearances. He’s given out 10 free bases to first base in his last three starts.

"I didn't really get comfortable and was a little wild with my fastball," Romero told reporters after giving up four runs in five innings of work in his last start.

Toronto is 2-6 in Romero’s last eight trips to the hill.

Jhoulys Chacin (8-7, 3.37 ERA), Colorado Rockies

It’s been a rough few weeks for this Rockies hurler. He owns a 6.17 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in his last four starts and Colorado is, not surprisingly, 0-4 during that stretch.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 7)

With the trade deadline fast approaching, this can be a difficult time of year for MLB bettors. It’s often hard to know how certain teams and specific players are dealing with the rumors.

James Shields is a good example. He’s heard a bunch of trade rumors over the past little while.

“This is part of the year where you have to deal with (rumors) as a player,” Shields told reporters ahead of Thursday's start. “It happens every single year, and there are guys who get mentioned. If I’m one of those guys, so be it.”

“I feel like I’m a Ray, and I’ve been a Ray for my whole career. I feel really good here… My goal is to make the playoffs with the Rays right now, and that’s what I’m going to do.”

We’ll see about that. It’s going to be tough for the Rays to catch the BoSox and Yanks, so while we don’t think Shields is going anywhere, it’s not out of the question.

He’s having a heck of a year and should come out firing on Tuesday.

PICK: Tampa Bay


Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (+140, 7.5)

The Twins exploded for a three-run eighth inning Wednesday against the Indians on their way to a 7-5 victory, which earned the club a split in the series and moved Minnesota to five games back of Cleveland for the division lead.

Danny Valencia drove in the go-ahead run in the eighth in Wednesday’s game, a day after he delivered another game-winning hit.

"I like being in those situations," Valencia told reporters. "Anybody on this team wants to be in that position. Fortunately it's been coming up in my hands and I've been able to take it and run with it, and come through. It was a huge team win. We needed this. We're within striking distance of getting back on top of this division."

If the Twins can keep dominating at home, they may just cut into that deficit this weekend. Minnesota has won 17 of its last 23 home games and need to keep this roll going.

PICK: Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Sky-Fever Preview
By Associated Press

Chicago Sky at Indiana Fever (-7.5, 147)

Although the Indiana Fever are tied for the most wins in the WNBA, they've lost three in a row and have dropped out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference.

Hosting the Chicago Sky may help them get back on track, as Indiana seeks its 10th consecutive home victory in the series Thursday night.

The Fever (10-6) suffered an 84-74 defeat to Atlanta on Tuesday and fell percentage points behind Connecticut in the East. All-Star Tamika Catchings scored 22 points and Erin Phillips added a career-high 21, but Katie Douglas finished with four and shot 1 for 8.

Reserve Jessica Davenport was the only other Indiana player in double figures with 12 points.

''The thing about us, we win when we have balanced scoring,'' coach Lin Dunn said. ''We want five to six players in double figures.''

The Fever had three such players in its season opener June 4, when they beat the Sky 65-57. That extended Indiana's home win streak against Chicago to nine and its overall run versus to the Sky to six.

The Fever appear to have a good chance to extend those streaks, given their 7-2 home mark and Chicago's 1-6 record on the road.

The Sky have won two of their last three, however, having defeated Seattle 78-69 on Tuesday.

Sylvia Fowles, the league's leading scorer at 20.6 points per game, had 24 points and nine rebounds to lift Chicago (8-8). Epiphanny Prince, named to the All-Star team along with Fowles, added 23 points and three steals.

"It was really important for us to help her," Prince said of Fowles. "If the guards can hit outside shots, than (Fowles) can play one on one down there so we always need to contribute when we can."

Prince is averaging 16.6 points and leads the league with 3.3 steals a game. Her strong performance Tuesday followed a three-game stretch in which she shot 4 of 16 twice and averaged 10.0 points.

"I think she got her mojo back," Fowles said of Prince. "That's what we need from her every night and I'm glad she helped us get this win."

Prince scored a game-high 20 points but Fowles was held to 10 in the June loss to the Fever. Prince likely will match up with Douglas, who scored 19 points in that meeting.

Douglas is averaging 14.9 points, though she's averaged 8.7 and shot 33.3 percent over her last three games.

Catchings scored 15 points in the clubs' first meeting, teaming with Douglas to keep Chicago's defense off balance.

''If Tamika and I are coming off pick and rolls or what not, the defense tends to have a lot of double-teams against us, so she definitely loosens things up for us out there,'' Douglas said.

The Sky's last victory over the Fever came Sept. 10, 2009, by an 86-79 score in Chicago.

[Mr. IWS]

LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bets

Chicago Sky at Indiana Fever (-7.5, 147)

The WNBA All-Star break couldn’t come soon enough for the slumping Fever. They have dropped three straight games to fall to 10-6, after stringing together seven wins in a row between June 21 and July 13.

Indiana’s most recent defeat was an 84-74 loss to the Atlanta Dream, failing to cover as a 2.5-point favorite Tuesday. The Fever were left flat footed by the Dream’s up-tempo attack, getting outscored 24-10 on fastbreak points. Indiana also had a poor showing from veteran guard and leading scorer Katie Douglas, who finished 1 for 8 from the field and picked up only four points.

"The thing about us, we win when we have balanced scoring," Indiana coach Lin Dunn told reporters. "We want five to six players in double figures."

The Fever’s scoring production has dipped during this skid, putting up just under 72 points a game after averaging more than 81 points during their six-game winning run. On the season, Indiana averages 77.5 points – eighth in the WNBA.

The Fever will have a hard time on offense against the Sky, who are ranked among the best defensive squads in the league. Chicago gives up only 76.6 points an outing and has won four of its last six games, covering the spread in each of those victories.

PICK: Chicago


San Antonio Silver Stars at Seattle Storm (-4.5, 147)

Not having the league’s top player in the lineup has finally caught up with the Storm. Seattle, which is without MVP center Lauren Jackson, has lost three straight outings and is 4-5 SU and ATS since Jackson went down with a hip injury that required surgery.

The Storm’s most recent defeat came at the hands of the Chicago Sky, who limited Seattle to only 69 points on 41 percent shooting and forced the defending WNBA champs to turn the ball over 17 times. The Storm averaged only 65.6 points during this three-game slide – 5.5 points fewer than their season average.

"It's obviously disappointing because I feel like we have the people in here to close games," forward Swin Cash told reporters. "A few games this year, we had opportunities down the stretch after making a big comeback to really make a push and take the lead or tie it up and we haven't been able to do that."

San Antonio is responsible for one of those recent losses, dropping Seattle 69-66 on July 14. The Silver Stars held the Storm to 39.7 percent shooting, limited standout guard Sue Bird to just 10 points, and forced 21 turnovers.

PICK: San Antonio

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Tips: Mets Won’t Move Reyes

Who's Hot

MLB: Milwaukee has won seven of its last eight in Arizona.

MLB: Colorado has won 13 of its last 19 games as a favorite.

WNBA: Seattle is riding a 5-0-1 streak against the spread vs. San Antonio.

Who’s Not

MLB: Seattle is 10-28 in its last 38 games in Toronto.

MLB: San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight as an underdog.

WNBA: Indiana is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games against Chicago.

Key Stat

0 – Heading into Wednesday’s action, the San Francisco Giants are the only team in the majors without a player who has hit at least 10 home runs. Pablo Sandoval and Aubrey Huff each have nine, while the team sits 23rd in the show with 64 taters.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Jason Bay, New York Mets – Bay left Wednesday’s game with an apparent hamstring injury and didn’t return. His status for Thursday’s matinee against St. Louis is uncertain. Bay is hitting .233 with six homers and 29 RBIs this season, but has missed 21 games so far.

Game Of The Day

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (N/A)

Notable Quotable

"I want to express my deepest gratitude to Stevie for all his help, but I think it's time for a change. Stevie is an outstanding caddie and a friend and has been instrumental in many of my accomplishments. I wish him great success in the future." – Tiger Woods said in a statement on his website about parting ways with longtime caddie Steve Williams. Woods hasn’t announced a date for his return from his knee and Achilles issues, but is currently set around +1100 in the PGA Championship.

Tips And Notes

According to ESPN reports, the New York Mets will not trade Jose Reyes before the MLB trade deadline. Reyes, who is just coming off a hamstring injury, leads the league in batting average (.355), hits (126) and triples (15). He also has 30 steals. Reyes will be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, so New York may look to unload some contracts before the deadline – that means you, Carlos Beltran.

Months of rain on Canada’s west coast could cause the field some problems at the Canadian Open this weekend. Word has it that all the rain has the rough up at Vancouver’s Shaughnessy Golf and Country. With the weather expected to be cool and rainy at times, last year’s Canadian Open winner Carl Patterson told the Toronto Sun the rough “becomes even more lush and thick and tough to get out of and the course played longer tee-to-green.” Luke Donald is set as a +800 favorite.

The Detroit Tigers strengthened their infield by trading a pair of prospects to the Kansas City Royals in return for third baseman Wilson Betemit. He’s hitting. 281 with three homers and 27 RBIs in 203 at-bats and will now provide some competition at the hot corner for Brandon Inge, who’s hitting just .177.

The Los Angeles Dodgers fired hitting coach Jeff Petland Wednesday and named Dave Hansen as their interim replacement. Pentland was a batting coach in the bigs for 15 years but terrible offensive numbers forced the club to do something. The Dodgers rank 27th in runs, 26th in slugging percentage (.361), 22nd in home runs and 17th in batting average (.250).

[Mr. IWS]

Fenimore The Great

13 Units Tor-136
5 Units Mets -113
4 Units Color-109

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

San Antonio at Seattle

The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is coming off a 78-69 loss at Chicago and is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU loss. San Antonio is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 21
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST Game 651-652: Chicago at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 109.444; Indiana 119.927
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 10 1/2; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 146
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7); Under Game 653-654: San Antonio at Seattle (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.992; Seattle 114.167
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 147
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at Colorado

The Braves look to build on their 7-0 record in Tommy Hanson's last 7 road starts. Atlanta is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-105). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 21
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST Game 951-952: St. Louis at NY Mets (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.593; NY Mets (Niese) 14.451
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Over Game 953-954: San Diego at Florida (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Moseley) 15.327; Florida (Vazquez) 15.932
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-155); Under Game 955-956: Atlanta at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.595; Colorado (Chacin) 13.952
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-105); Under Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 14.034; Arizona (Kennedy) 15.497
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115); Over Game 959-960: Seattle at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 14.630; Toronto (Romero) 14.041
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Over Game 961-962: Texas at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.514; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.108
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.313; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.924
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over Game 965-966: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.784; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.910
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

683- 510 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one 9-1 run, Thurs:Angels -125

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo moved a little farther away from his debt ceiling last night, breezing with the Padres to lower the deficit to 1,855 pearsons.

Today, Mr. Aitch will open with The Good Weaver and close with one of the Hanson brothers -- 20 units apiece on the Angels and Braves.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Braves -105

[Mr. IWS]

FARGO

Big Bite Beatdown -
Detroit Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Marlins -150 over Padres