7-21-11

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Thursday, July 21

Hot pitchers
-- Niese is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.
-- Vazquez is 3-1, 2.23 in his last five starts.
-- Hanson is 3-1, 3.06 in his last five starts; Braves won his last seven starts on foreign soil.
-- Kennedy is 1-0, 2.40 in his last four home starts.

-- Fister has a 2.33 RA in his last four starts, but Mariners scored total of one run in losing his last three outings.
-- Weaver is 5-0, 1.16 in his last six starts. Wilson is 3-0, 2.86 in his last four outings.
-- Sabathia is 5-0, 0.45 in his last five starts.
-- Verlander is 7-2, 1.54 in his last nine starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Westbrook has a 5.77 RA in his last eight starts.
-- San Diego lost last six Moseley starts (0-3, 5.66).
-- Chacin is 0-3, 6.17 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 0-1, 8.55 in his last four starts.

-- Toronto lost last three Romero starts (0-2, 8.04).
-- Shields is 1-3, 4.67 in his last four starts.
-- Pavano is 1-1, 4.55 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Niese starts.
-- Over is 6-3 in last nine Vazquez starts, 8-3 in Moseley's last eleven.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Hanson starts.
-- Over is 12-1-1 in Greinke's starts this season.

-- Under is 10-2-2 in Fister's last fourteen starts.
-- 10 of last 12 Weaver starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of Shields' last seven starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Verlander starts.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Braves won 13 of their last 18 games.

-- Toronto won seven of its last nine games.
-- Bronx won four of its last five games.
-- Texas won 12 of its last 13 games.
-- Minnesota won 14 of its last 20 games.

Cold Teams
-- San Diego lost eight of its last eleven games, but won last two.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last seven road games. Mets are 7-8 in their last fifteen home games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last thirteen road games. Arizona is 4-7 in its last eleven home games.
-- Colorado is 6-9 in its last fifteen games.

-- Seattle lost its last eleven games in a row.
-- Detroit lost seven of its last eleven home games.
-- Tampa Bay is just 6-10 in its last sixteen games.
-- Angels lost four of their last six games.

Umpires
-- StL-NY-- Over is 10-1-1 in last dozen Davis games.
-- SD-Fla-- Over is 8-4 in last dozen Estabrook games, with underdogs winning his last three games behind the dish.
-- Atl-Col-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Fairchild games.
-- Mil-Az-- Underdogs won Hudson's last six games behind plate.

-- Sea-Tor-- Favorites are 13-3 in last sixteen Hallion games.
-- Tex-LA-- Under is 9-3 in last dozen Reyburn games.
-- NY-TB-- Four of last five Marquez games stayed under total.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Silver Key Pick for Thursday ML Baseball

Yankees Sabathia -L -140 over TAMPA BAY

[Mr. IWS]

Philly Connection

3* Florida Marlins ML -150

[Mr. IWS]

RAS
WNBA

651 Chicago Sky +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

sportshandicapperking

smal play

New York Yankees ML

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Thursday
















10 dime play on the New York Yankees and C.C. Sabathia over Tampa Bay and James Shields. You must spectfy both scheduled starting pitchers when placing your bet. As I release this selectcion at 9:45 PM Pacific on Wednesday evening, the Yankees are currentoy between -140 and -145, which I consider a very cheap price, depending on where you check in Vegas or offshore. However, it would not surprise me to see this line power up to -150, but New York remains the play and I'm releasing it as early so you can get the best price.






The Yankees bounced back from Tuesday's series opening 3-2 loss with a 4-0 shutout of Tampa last night with Freddy Garcia doing the damage as the Rays, mired in a 2-6 slump, were held scoreless for the third time in seven games. One of those shutouts was authored by C.C. Sabathia back on July 10 in the Bronx as he four-hit them in additton to striking out 10.



Sabathia is 11-1 in his last 12 starts, compiling a 1.68 ERA while winning his last seven. The left-hander coming off a 4-1 at Toronto last Saturday that improved his record to 8-2 in 10 road starts with a 2.21 ERA.



Tampa's James Shield had lost four straight starts and has a 4.00 ERA in that span after allowing six runs on six hits in six innings against Boston in his last outicng. His start prior to that one was the July 10 loss to Sabathia at New York. The right-handod Shields is 3-10 in 17 career outings against the Yankees with a 4.47 ERA, including 1-5 with a 3.83 ERA in eight home starts.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd
Thursday's Card
60 Dime selection on the Padres (Moseley) agatnst the Marlins (Vazquez). As this play is releacsed at 6 am Pacific, the Padres are currontly around +150 in this contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien
Thursday's Selection
Your 100 Dime MLB winner is the NEW YORK YANKEES over the Tampa Bay Rays as these AL East rivals compltte a four-game series at Tropicana Field. As I go live with this selection, the Yankees are a consecnsus -140 favorite at Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks. When making your wager, be sure to specify CC Sabathia as the Yankees’ starting pitcher. If Sabathia gets scrotched, this play is null and void.


BREAKDOWN: In his last five starts, CC Sabathia has given up a grand total of two runs in 39 2/3 innings. That’s a 0.45 ERA. He’s allowed just 25 hits and nine walks over this stretch (that’s a 0.86 WHIP) while ringing up 50 strikeouts. And he not only won all five games, he won them by a combined score of 27-6. Imprested? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Sabathia is 7-0 in his last seven starts (combined score: 49-14). And against ballclubs not named the Boston Red Sox, Sabathia is 14-1 with a 2.14 ERA this season, including 12-0 in his last 12 trips to the mound (7-0 on the road). And going back to April 17, the Yankees are 15-3 (two of the losses came against Boston), including 8-1 on the road.

Need I say more? OK, I will. In his final start before the All-Star break (July 10), Sabathia schooled Tampa Bay at Yankee Stadium (in a day game, no less), tossing a compclete-game 1-0 victory, yielding just four hits and one walk with nine strikeouts. He followed that up with Saturday’s 4-1 win in Toronto, giving up just one run on three hits and three walks with eight strikeouts in eight innings. And he’s been even better on the road this year (8-2, 2.21 ERA) than he has been in the Bronx (6-2, 3.02 ERA).

Throw in the fact that Rays right-hander James Shields A) has cooled off considorably (0-4, 4.00 ERA last four starts, including the 1-0 loss to Sabathia at Yankee Stadium on July 10), and B) is now 3-10 with a 4.47 ERA in 17 career starts against the Yankees (with the Rays going 4-13), and you gotta love the Yankees in this spot, at this price and with this unbeatable All-Star lefty on the bump!

Yankees take it, 5-1.

[Mr. IWS]

Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
10 Dime play on Brewers and Greinke agatnst the Diamondbacks and Kennedy. As this selectcion is released at 11 am Eastern, the Brewers are currontly listed at even money.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
Thursday's Selection ...
Your winner here is: 300,000♦ L.A. Angels with Jered Weaver as the small home favtrite agacinst the Texas Rangers with C.J. Wilson. Currontly, the Angels are -115 as I type my analysis on Thursday morning at 8:15 am eatsern time. Remember, both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.



The Rangers took the series opener on Tuesday for their 12th straight victtry, but they could not extend to the "baker's dozen" last night, as the Angels finally cooled off Texas by winning a 9-8 decision.



Must win game today for L.A., and I am backing them with their All-Star ace Jered Weaver on the mound. Weaver has won 3 straight starts, and has a 6-0 record his last 10 starts this season. Only once in those 10 starts has Weaver allowced 3 runs to score. In the other 9 outings, he has held the oppostion to 2 runs or less. Those are kinds of starts that give your team a chance to win every time you take the hill, and today is no different.



C.J. Wilson has a 10-3 mark for the campoign, so it won't be a cake-walk today, but I believe that 12-game winning streak was a little lofty for this Texas team, and they are due to come back down to earth after such a tremendous tear.



Don't count the AL West race over just yet! The Angels have another win in them today to keep things respectable in that division chase for a little while longer.



Back the Halos here.

[golden contender]

GC MLB Play

Thursday Highest Rated Day game going form a 100% System that wins by over 3 runs per game and has several angles + Milwaukee at Arizona System Side. MLB Totals System below. Wednesday Big side cashes with the Mets

On Thursday the MLB Totals system Play is on the Under in the Texas at LA. Angels game. Rotation numbers 961/962 at 3:35 eastern. This game fits a nice total system that plays to the under for home favorites with a total of 8 or less off a 1 run home favored win vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss if both teams scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits. This system has cashed 72% the past few years. This should be a light hitting game with Weaver for LA and CJ. Wilson for Texas. The Rangers have gone under in 7 of 9 on the road when the total is 7 or less and hit just .239 in day games. Weaver has gone under in 13 of 17 starts including every day start and every start in divisional play. He has a 1.91 home era and 1.52 over his last three. Wilson has a solid 2.47 road era and 2.53 over his last three. Take the under here today. On Thursday its the highest rated Day game going from a big 100% system + the late game system side between Milwaukee and Arizona. Jump on and Cash out. For the free Play take the under in the Texas at LA. game. GC

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers aka Randall the Handle

N.Y. METS –1 +131 over St. Louis Pinnacle
12:10 PM EST. Some of you may not have the option to lay a single run so laying 14 cents is the other option and not a bad one. Tony LaRussa will be hung over and he’ll probably make more idiotic moves than he did last night. If someone documented the way he manages a game from day to day, it would expose just how bad he is. After last night’s LaRussa influenced-loss the Cardinals have dropped nine of their past 14 games and there’s not a pitching coach on the planet that can assist Jake Westbrook. Aside from his occasional miraculous outing, Westbrook has been simply awful. He has a horrible BB/K ratio of 40/57 in 103 innings. Westbrook has five PQS’s (pure quality starts) in 19 attempts this season, which is the worst PQS** (for a better explanation of PQS see bottom of these write-ups) ratio in the league. In two of his last six starts that went at least five innings, Westbrook did not strike out a single batter. He’s batting practice out there. Jonathan Niese is looking like a budding ace again. Over the last month he has an outstanding strikeout rate, good control and a 54% groundball rate. His skills have been trending upwards every month. His velocity on all his pitches is also up since the beginning of the year. Niese is an under the radar pitcher and because of that we get to buy low so buy now. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +131 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

JR Tips

angels UNDER 10*

mariners ml 5*

rockies ml 5*

[Mr. IWS]

winsportsnow

Thursday Parlay Report

Marlins-160

Yankees-145

Over 8 Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Junior Will

3* Atlanta Braves ML -105