8-13-11

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Saturday
Play Milwaukee (-160) over Pittsburgh (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST
Pittsburgh has lost 12 of the last 14 games and they have also lost 17 of the last 19 games vs. Milwaukee on the road. Kevin Correia is 2-5 vs. Milwaukee over his career with an ERA of 6.37 and he is 1-2 over his last three overall starts with an ERA of 8.36.

Play Philadelphia (-215) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Philadelphia has won 21 of the last 23 home games as a favorite of -200 to -225 and they have won 12 of the last 14 overall games. Philadelphia has won 22 of the last 31 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have also won 10 of the last 12 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs.

Play St. Louis (-170) over Colorado (Bonus)
Starts at 7:15 PM EST

Canadian Football Saturday
50* Play Winnipeg (+1.5) over British Columbia
Starts at 10:00 PM EST
Winnipeg has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games this season and they are only allowing an average of 18 points a game on defense this season. British Columbia has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have lost 7 consecutive home games against the spread when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points.

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SGHotline

First NFL Private Play of the 2011-12 season on Cleveland -2

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 8.5 Pirates/Brewers

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David Banks
This week 2 - 3

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The best team in baseball, otherwise known as the Philadelphia Phillies, return home from a successful road trip to battle the NL East rival Washington Nationals on Saturday night at 7:05 ET from the comfy confines of Citizens Bank Park.
Though the Nats sit five-games under .500 with no shot of qualifying for the second season, manager Davey Johnson’s outfit is still a +$$$ team having made its wagering supporters a shade over $265 on the year. Tonight’s game will mark the 8th game of a lengthy 11-game road trip with the Nationals entering 3-4 SU through the first seven entering Friday’s series opener. Overall, Washington is just 24-38 away from Nationals Park costing those that backed them $634.
What else can you say about the Phillies at this point in the season? At 77-40 to date, manager Charlie Manuel’s squad is on pace to win well over 100 games provided it doesn’t take its foot off the gas pedal and see what could be a historical regular season campaign all the way through. The NL East leaders return home to their rabid fans off a tremendous road trip that saw them go into Colorado, San Francisco and Los Angeles and come out with a 9-1 record. Philly sits atop the $$$ rankings with an overall $2253 return with $1358 of that profit coming at CBP where they’ve gone a dominating 41-18.
The Phillies hold a 6-3 SU advantage over the Nationals in the division rivals 2011 season series; the ‘over’ has played to a 5-4 tally. That said; Washington is 4-1 its L/5 versus both NL East opposition and +.500 opponents. Making the Nats even more of an attractive underdog is the fact that they’re 5-0 in John Lannan’s L/5 starts vs. winning teams and 4-1 in his L/5 road starts. Philadelphia has tallied wins in 39 of its L/54 against sub .500 opposition and stand 25-10 its L/35 vs. left-handers, but have only managed wins in one of Roy Oswalt’s L/6 trips to the starting bump.
PICK: PHILLY/WASHINGTON UNDER

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EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Phillies (-199),
Devil Rays (+125),
Twins (+131),
Royals (+141),
Athletics (+104),
Braves (-172).

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Vic Monte
21 - 20 Max Out selections

2000* MAX OUT TOTAL OF THE YEAR - PIRATES/BREWERS OVER 8.5

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ATS WINNERS

4* OVER 35 Green Bay / Cleveland

4* Minnesota Vikings +3.5

3* St. Louis Rams -7

3* UNDER 33 NY Giants / Carolina Panthers

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Sports Picks Direct

2* OVER 35 Green Bay Packers / Cleveland Browns

2* St. Louis Rams -7

MLB

1* LA Angels ML -115
(Weaver) vs (Romero)

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Sports Wagers

Tampa Bay +131 over N.Y. YANKEES Pinnacle
Jeremy Hellickson has a ton of upside, but he has relied more on luck than upside this season. He has received plenty of support from his 23% hit rate and 77% strand rate. In order to improve, he'll have to refine his approach while pitching from the stretch because it’s hurt him. Having said that, he’s learning, he’s so talented, he’s getting better and he still has a 3.05 ERA and 10 wins. Hellickson has also gone eight straight games in which he’s allowed three earned runs or less and that includes games against the Yanks, Red Sox, Cinci, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Kansas City. Now to the Yanks. Didn’t GM Brian Cashman say pitching was the Yankees’ No. 1 priority immediately upon losing to Texas in last year’s playoffs? Perhaps they should have ponied up for Ubaldo Jiminez instead of having to rely on at least three misfits in Burnett, Garcia and today’s starter Phil Hughes. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year and Hughes leads the way. Hughes is 0-2 at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 9.16. Overall his BAA is .329 and that’s after facing the struggling offenses of Seattle, Chicago, Oakland, Toronto and Cleveland in his last five starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of those five starts but it had everything to do with pure luck and nothing to do with skill, as he still allowed a ton of hard hit balls and never made it once past the sixth inning. This is Hughes’s last chance to stick in the rotation because Joe Girardi said he’s reducing to a five-man rotation beginning Monday. In any event, TB has played New York very close this season with the Yanks holding a slight 5-4 advantage and outscoring them by a narrow four runs in nine games and Phil Hughes is not close to being worthy of this tag against Hellickson. Play: Tampa Bay +131 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +129 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle
Cleveland has played a slew of low-scoring games recently and therein lies the risk in playing them as the chalk. The Indians -- winners of 19 of their first 23 home games in 2011 -- are just 5-9 in their last 14 tilts in Cleveland and probably should be 4-10 after they fluked out the opener. Since that hot start, CLE has gone just 14-20 at Progressive Field and it’s also worth noting that MIN leads the season series 6-3. Josh Tomlin is just 26-years-old, he’s having a very good year and his great command gives him hope for more good years to come. However, a lofty fly-ball + line-drive% + borderline weak strikeout rate = trouble and that makes him too volatile for now and not worth laying a tag like this when he has a weak offense behind him. Brian Duensing is no better than Josh Tomlin but Duensing does have a higher groundball rate and higher SO rate. Furthermore, Duensing has a good history versus the Tribe with a 3-0 record and 3.20 ERA. This season Duensing is 1-0 against CLE with a 1.29 ERA. By contrast, Tomlin is 0-1 against MIN in two starts this season with an ERA of 7.50 in 12 IP. The Twins offer up a lot more value here than the Indians. Play: Minnesota +129 (Risking 2 units).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +124 over Pittsburgh Pinnacle
MILWAUKEE/Pittsburgh over 8½ Pinnacle
Two bets here. We’re playing the Brewers laying the runs and we’ll take some insurance on the total. In other words, if the Brewers do not cover the run line, this game is sure to go over because the Brewers will score runs against Kevin Correia. Correia has a 12-10 record in 24 starts and that’s rather remarkable when you consider he has less skills than 95% of the pitchers in this league. Anyone’s enthusiasm for wagering on this guy should now be muted, as his ERA over the past 31 days was 8.39 and it’s unlikely to improve here. Correia has a low strikeout rate and a very high 11% HR/Fly rate and that’s a big problem against this flourishing offense. Over his last 28 frames, Correia has been tagged for 46 hits 28 runs and seven bombs and it’s quite possible the Crew go over this number on their own today. Marco Estrada’s 4.80 ERA is not impressive over his four starts earlier in the year but it was inflated by a 65% strand rate. His xERA is 3.75, and his good strikeout rate and command provide a solid basis for success. Three of his four starts were quality one’s and while he'll probably get only one start, he's worth watching if he gets an extended opportunity. If he does blow up the game will go over. If he does not, the Crew will win and cover and it still might go over. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units). Play: Milwaukee/Pitt over 8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Washington +182 over Philadelphia Pinnacle
This is actually a pretty decent matchup for the Nationals. PHI is only an average offensive team this year, ranking 15th in MLB with a .720 OPS, they do hit better at home (.744 OPS - ranking 11th) but they’re somewhat susceptible to left-handed pitching, ranking only 22nd with a .683 OPS vLHPs and will face one here in John Lannan. Lannan has an elite groundball rate of 54% and that alone makes him worthy of taking back a tag like this at a venue that is much more kinder to groundball pitchers. Philly is looking for some old magic from Roy Oswalt. Oswalt returned off the DL to throw six innings against SF. He allowed just two runs but a closer look reveals a lousy pitching line against a lousy offense. In those six frames, Oswalt surrendered 12 hits, walked four and struck out just three and he’s extremely fortunate he was facing the Giants otherwise he may have allowed 12 runs and not two. This is not the same reliable Oswalt. The Phillies have lost his last three starts and four of his last five. They’ve also lost eight of his last 10 starts and this is a guy you want to be taking back a big price against 100% of the time because he’s just not that good anymore. Play: Washington +182 (Risking 2 units).

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Sports Wagers

Tampa Bay +131 over N.Y. YANKEES Pinnacle
Jeremy Hellickson has a ton of upside, but he has relied more on luck than upside this season. He has received plenty of support from his 23% hit rate and 77% strand rate. In order to improve, he'll have to refine his approach while pitching from the stretch because it’s hurt him. Having said that, he’s learning, he’s so talented, he’s getting better and he still has a 3.05 ERA and 10 wins. Hellickson has also gone eight straight games in which he’s allowed three earned runs or less and that includes games against the Yanks, Red Sox, Cinci, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Kansas City. Now to the Yanks. Didn’t GM Brian Cashman say pitching was the Yankees’ No. 1 priority immediately upon losing to Texas in last year’s playoffs? Perhaps they should have ponied up for Ubaldo Jiminez instead of having to rely on at least three misfits in Burnett, Garcia and today’s starter Phil Hughes. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year and Hughes leads the way. Hughes is 0-2 at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 9.16. Overall his BAA is .329 and that’s after facing the struggling offenses of Seattle, Chicago, Oakland, Toronto and Cleveland in his last five starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of those five starts but it had everything to do with pure luck and nothing to do with skill, as he still allowed a ton of hard hit balls and never made it once past the sixth inning. This is Hughes’s last chance to stick in the rotation because Joe Girardi said he’s reducing to a five-man rotation beginning Monday. In any event, TB has played New York very close this season with the Yanks holding a slight 5-4 advantage and outscoring them by a narrow four runs in nine games and Phil Hughes is not close to being worthy of this tag against Hellickson. Play: Tampa Bay +131 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +129 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle
Cleveland has played a slew of low-scoring games recently and therein lies the risk in playing them as the chalk. The Indians -- winners of 19 of their first 23 home games in 2011 -- are just 5-9 in their last 14 tilts in Cleveland and probably should be 4-10 after they fluked out the opener. Since that hot start, CLE has gone just 14-20 at Progressive Field and it’s also worth noting that MIN leads the season series 6-3. Josh Tomlin is just 26-years-old, he’s having a very good year and his great command gives him hope for more good years to come. However, a lofty fly-ball + line-drive% + borderline weak strikeout rate = trouble and that makes him too volatile for now and not worth laying a tag like this when he has a weak offense behind him. Brian Duensing is no better than Josh Tomlin but Duensing does have a higher groundball rate and higher SO rate. Furthermore, Duensing has a good history versus the Tribe with a 3-0 record and 3.20 ERA. This season Duensing is 1-0 against CLE with a 1.29 ERA. By contrast, Tomlin is 0-1 against MIN in two starts this season with an ERA of 7.50 in 12 IP. The Twins offer up a lot more value here than the Indians. Play: Minnesota +129 (Risking 2 units).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +124 over Pittsburgh Pinnacle
MILWAUKEE/Pittsburgh over 8½ Pinnacle
Two bets here. We’re playing the Brewers laying the runs and we’ll take some insurance on the total. In other words, if the Brewers do not cover the run line, this game is sure to go over because the Brewers will score runs against Kevin Correia. Correia has a 12-10 record in 24 starts and that’s rather remarkable when you consider he has less skills than 95% of the pitchers in this league. Anyone’s enthusiasm for wagering on this guy should now be muted, as his ERA over the past 31 days was 8.39 and it’s unlikely to improve here. Correia has a low strikeout rate and a very high 11% HR/Fly rate and that’s a big problem against this flourishing offense. Over his last 28 frames, Correia has been tagged for 46 hits 28 runs and seven bombs and it’s quite possible the Crew go over this number on their own today. Marco Estrada’s 4.80 ERA is not impressive over his four starts earlier in the year but it was inflated by a 65% strand rate. His xERA is 3.75, and his good strikeout rate and command provide a solid basis for success. Three of his four starts were quality one’s and while he'll probably get only one start, he's worth watching if he gets an extended opportunity. If he does blow up the game will go over. If he does not, the Crew will win and cover and it still might go over. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units). Play: Milwaukee/Pitt over 8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Washington +182 over Philadelphia Pinnacle
This is actually a pretty decent matchup for the Nationals. PHI is only an average offensive team this year, ranking 15th in MLB with a .720 OPS, they do hit better at home (.744 OPS - ranking 11th) but they’re somewhat susceptible to left-handed pitching, ranking only 22nd with a .683 OPS vLHPs and will face one here in John Lannan. Lannan has an elite groundball rate of 54% and that alone makes him worthy of taking back a tag like this at a venue that is much more kinder to groundball pitchers. Philly is looking for some old magic from Roy Oswalt. Oswalt returned off the DL to throw six innings against SF. He allowed just two runs but a closer look reveals a lousy pitching line against a lousy offense. In those six frames, Oswalt surrendered 12 hits, walked four and struck out just three and he’s extremely fortunate he was facing the Giants otherwise he may have allowed 12 runs and not two. This is not the same reliable Oswalt. The Phillies have lost his last three starts and four of his last five. They’ve also lost eight of his last 10 starts and this is a guy you want to be taking back a big price against 100% of the time because he’s just not that good anymore. Play: Washington +182 (Risking 2 units).

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OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS
4 UNIT* MLB* Texas Rangers -120 ML

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spartan | MLB Total

dime bet 918 TOR / 917 ANA Under 7 JustBet

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Jeff Benton
Saturday's Action
30 Dime baseball winner # 6 of 7 is my A.L. game of the month on the home faverite Yankees as they continue with their weekoend series against the Rays. At the time I release this winner, New York is priced right around a -140 favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that you must list both Hughes and Hellickson as the starting pitchors when placing your action. Both must start, or this play is VOID!

10 Dime preseason lock is the UNDER in the Vikings-Titans contest. At the time I release this winner, I see the total of this game standing at or around 33-total points pretty much across the board both here in Vegas and offshore.

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Chris Torrisi from wecoverspreads.

Play on Cleveland -1 to -2 1/2

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SuperSportsGroup

MLB
Anaheim v. Toronto 1:05pm
PICK: Jays ML +110 game Hidden Gem #1

Texas v. Oakland 4:05pm
PICK: OVER 7.5 Game -110 Hidden Gem #2

Chicago v. Atlanta 7:10pm
PICK: OVER 8.5 Game -110
PICK: Cubs ML +164 Game

Kansas City v. Chicago 7:10pm
PICK: Royals ML +141 Game

NFLX
Green Bay v. Cleveland 7:35pm
PICK: OVER 35 Game Best bet of the day

Buffalo v. Chicago 8pm
PICK: OVER 36 Game