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THE WINNING ADDICT
Minnesota Twins +134 (Risk 5 units to win 6.7 units) 7:05 P.M. EST
Brian Duensing has undoubtedly had an inconsistent year for the Twins, but tonight he takes the hill vs a Cleveland team against which he has had a ton of success in his career. In 3 career starts he is 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA and looked great in his last outing against them allowing only run in 7 innings at home on April 23rd. Duensing is a left-hander who doesn’t throw very hard—the type of pitcher Cleveland has struggled with all season. Just looking back two weeks ago, Cleveland limped to two losses vs Danny Duffy and Jeff Francis, two Kansas city starters that haven’t had great seasons, but they didn’t have much trouble beating the Indians at Progressive Field. The Twins dropped a brutal 3-2 game last night after taking a 2-1 lead to the bottom of the 8th, only to see Glen Perkins allow the lead to evaporate. Josh Tomlin takes the mound for Cleveland tonight. He has an 11-5 record but a 4.08 ERA to go along with his nice record. He had a great start to the season, but he has not been the winning pitcher for his team since July 15th, an ugly 29 days ago. The Indians have lost 3 of his past 4 starts. Looking deeper into the numbers, he has a 5.06 ERA since the All-Star Break, as opposed to his 3.81 before the break. Tomlin only has 14 strikeouts in 32 innings in the 2nd half, and teams are hitting a solid .262 against him. I really like the value in the Twins tonight, and considering the Indians are well below .500 since the great start to their year, this number can’t be passed up.
Kansas City Royals +143 (Risk 4 units to win 5.72 units) 8:10 P.M. EST
For whatever reason, this White Sox team cannot win a game at home. They dropped 4 straight to the Yankees last week in ugly fashion, then they followed it up with a great 6-1 road trip, only to come home yesterday and lose to the lowly Royals. The Sox are 58-60 overall but just 24-33 overall, and they should not be laying this huge number tonight—I don’t care how bad the Royals’ 19-37 road record looks. Luke Hochevar has an 8-8 record this season and sports a 4.79 ERA. All things considered, an 8-8 record isn’t bad on a team that is 19 games under .500 entering the night. While the ERA seems high, he has been excellent in his last 3 outings, going 21 1/3 innings and giving up only 4 runs. Consider this—he has not been the losing pitcher in a game since June 21st. This is the Royals we are talking about here. They lost his last outing 2-1 in Tampa Bay, a game in which he threw 7 innings in and gave up 5 hits and 1 run. Before that game, Kansas City had won 7 straight games in which Hochevar had started. This kid was the 1st overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft from Tennessee, and he is just now starting to come into his own as a starter in the bigs. On the other side tonight, Jake Peavy starts for Chicago coming off his best outing of the season Sunday in Minnesota, a game in which he went 8 innings and gave up only 3 hits. He threw 108 pitches in his last outing, and I doubt his battered arm will respond well. Peavy is a fighter and a great competitor, but it doesn’t change the fast that he is just 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA. Before his last outing in Minnesota, the Sox had lost his last 5 outings. He has not pitched well at home this season, another reason for Chicago’s struggled at U.S. Cellular Field. He is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA at home, and I don’t expect those numbers to improve tonight. He is 0-2 against Kansas City this season with a 6.00 ERA. I actually think the wrong team is favored tonight. Take the Royals to win once again in Chicago tonight and risk 4% of your bankroll.
New York Liberty +7.5 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 7:05 P.M. EST
The Liberty gave away a 60-51 lead last night in Washington, missing a layup in the final seconds and scoring only 4 points over the final 6 minutes of the game. This Liberty team performed great the last time they played the 2nd game of a back to back, and I expect the same tonight against the Eastern Conference’s best team, the Indiana Fever. This New York team has alternated wins and losses their past 4 games, and I expect a big performance tonight coming off a 1 point loss to the worst team in the conference. New York has allowed only 65.0 points per game in their past 4 outings, which is a huge surge over their normal 76.0 that they have given up throughout the season. They have played better defense and the pace of their games has been much slower, yet another reason to love the fact that we are getting a whopping 7.5 points in this game. The Fever is 10-2 at home this season, but their only meeting with New York ended in an 81-80 defeat. These two teams always make classics when they get together, and I expect tonight to be no different, and either way, the Liberty are covering that 7.5 point spread. Win 5 units on New York.
Atlanta Dream +7 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 10:05 P.M. EST
The Atlanta Dream have been one of the WNBA’s hottest teams in the months of July and August. They have won 7 of their past 10 games after starting 3-9, and let’s not forget—this team did go to the WNBA Finals last year. The team they faced? The Seattle Storm, who oppose them tonight. They played 3 great games in the Finals last season, and with the Dream getting 7 points in this one, I don’t know how anyone can pass up this value. They are coming off a 109-95 loss in Phoenix, a game in which they got behind early and never cut the deficit. Angel McCoughtry, the league’s 2nd leading scorer at 20.1 points per game, has scored 30 points per game in their past 5 road games, and if she gets even close to that tonight—Atlanta is easily going to cover this spread. Seattle is not a team that can blow you out, so I don’t understand why this line is so steep. They only average 71.9 points per game, while Atlanta averages 80.0 points per game. All signs point to Atlanta in this one, so let’s pick up another big road win and 5% more of our bankroll.
Minnesota Twins +134 (Risk 5 units to win 6.7 units) 7:05 P.M. EST
Brian Duensing has undoubtedly had an inconsistent year for the Twins, but tonight he takes the hill vs a Cleveland team against which he has had a ton of success in his career. In 3 career starts he is 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA and looked great in his last outing against them allowing only run in 7 innings at home on April 23rd. Duensing is a left-hander who doesn’t throw very hard—the type of pitcher Cleveland has struggled with all season. Just looking back two weeks ago, Cleveland limped to two losses vs Danny Duffy and Jeff Francis, two Kansas city starters that haven’t had great seasons, but they didn’t have much trouble beating the Indians at Progressive Field. The Twins dropped a brutal 3-2 game last night after taking a 2-1 lead to the bottom of the 8th, only to see Glen Perkins allow the lead to evaporate. Josh Tomlin takes the mound for Cleveland tonight. He has an 11-5 record but a 4.08 ERA to go along with his nice record. He had a great start to the season, but he has not been the winning pitcher for his team since July 15th, an ugly 29 days ago. The Indians have lost 3 of his past 4 starts. Looking deeper into the numbers, he has a 5.06 ERA since the All-Star Break, as opposed to his 3.81 before the break. Tomlin only has 14 strikeouts in 32 innings in the 2nd half, and teams are hitting a solid .262 against him. I really like the value in the Twins tonight, and considering the Indians are well below .500 since the great start to their year, this number can’t be passed up.
Kansas City Royals +143 (Risk 4 units to win 5.72 units) 8:10 P.M. EST
For whatever reason, this White Sox team cannot win a game at home. They dropped 4 straight to the Yankees last week in ugly fashion, then they followed it up with a great 6-1 road trip, only to come home yesterday and lose to the lowly Royals. The Sox are 58-60 overall but just 24-33 overall, and they should not be laying this huge number tonight—I don’t care how bad the Royals’ 19-37 road record looks. Luke Hochevar has an 8-8 record this season and sports a 4.79 ERA. All things considered, an 8-8 record isn’t bad on a team that is 19 games under .500 entering the night. While the ERA seems high, he has been excellent in his last 3 outings, going 21 1/3 innings and giving up only 4 runs. Consider this—he has not been the losing pitcher in a game since June 21st. This is the Royals we are talking about here. They lost his last outing 2-1 in Tampa Bay, a game in which he threw 7 innings in and gave up 5 hits and 1 run. Before that game, Kansas City had won 7 straight games in which Hochevar had started. This kid was the 1st overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft from Tennessee, and he is just now starting to come into his own as a starter in the bigs. On the other side tonight, Jake Peavy starts for Chicago coming off his best outing of the season Sunday in Minnesota, a game in which he went 8 innings and gave up only 3 hits. He threw 108 pitches in his last outing, and I doubt his battered arm will respond well. Peavy is a fighter and a great competitor, but it doesn’t change the fast that he is just 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA. Before his last outing in Minnesota, the Sox had lost his last 5 outings. He has not pitched well at home this season, another reason for Chicago’s struggled at U.S. Cellular Field. He is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA at home, and I don’t expect those numbers to improve tonight. He is 0-2 against Kansas City this season with a 6.00 ERA. I actually think the wrong team is favored tonight. Take the Royals to win once again in Chicago tonight and risk 4% of your bankroll.
New York Liberty +7.5 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 7:05 P.M. EST
The Liberty gave away a 60-51 lead last night in Washington, missing a layup in the final seconds and scoring only 4 points over the final 6 minutes of the game. This Liberty team performed great the last time they played the 2nd game of a back to back, and I expect the same tonight against the Eastern Conference’s best team, the Indiana Fever. This New York team has alternated wins and losses their past 4 games, and I expect a big performance tonight coming off a 1 point loss to the worst team in the conference. New York has allowed only 65.0 points per game in their past 4 outings, which is a huge surge over their normal 76.0 that they have given up throughout the season. They have played better defense and the pace of their games has been much slower, yet another reason to love the fact that we are getting a whopping 7.5 points in this game. The Fever is 10-2 at home this season, but their only meeting with New York ended in an 81-80 defeat. These two teams always make classics when they get together, and I expect tonight to be no different, and either way, the Liberty are covering that 7.5 point spread. Win 5 units on New York.
Atlanta Dream +7 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 10:05 P.M. EST
The Atlanta Dream have been one of the WNBA’s hottest teams in the months of July and August. They have won 7 of their past 10 games after starting 3-9, and let’s not forget—this team did go to the WNBA Finals last year. The team they faced? The Seattle Storm, who oppose them tonight. They played 3 great games in the Finals last season, and with the Dream getting 7 points in this one, I don’t know how anyone can pass up this value. They are coming off a 109-95 loss in Phoenix, a game in which they got behind early and never cut the deficit. Angel McCoughtry, the league’s 2nd leading scorer at 20.1 points per game, has scored 30 points per game in their past 5 road games, and if she gets even close to that tonight—Atlanta is easily going to cover this spread. Seattle is not a team that can blow you out, so I don’t understand why this line is so steep. They only average 71.9 points per game, while Atlanta averages 80.0 points per game. All signs point to Atlanta in this one, so let’s pick up another big road win and 5% more of our bankroll.
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