8-23-11

[Mr. IWS]

SGHotline

Regular Play tonight on the Atlanta Dream +2.

[Mr. IWS]

RANDY BRUCE

MLB: *5 dimes each
Reds -1.5 RL, +120
Astros/Rockies Over 9.5, -105

[Mr. IWS]

PhD Picks

Cleveland ML-159

Texas ML-152

Minnesota ML-143

St. Louis ML+105

Colorado ML-166

Los Angeles Angels ML-146

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY

4* COLORADO / HOUSTON OVER 9

These two teams actually under-achieved in reaching 14 runs last night – there were 11 extra-base hits, three of them HR’s, but 20 players reached via a hit or W without scoring. It could have been even higher, and tonight will be more of the same – the starters are not going to get deep into the night, and the bullpens bring precious little.

Bud Norris has finished the 7th inning once since the All Star break, facing the weak Dodger offense in the friendly confines of Chavez Ravine. That was also the only August start in which he did not get stretched out to at least 18.8 PPI, and given that his 152 IP nearly puts him at his 2010 work load (153.2), there is reason to believe that his best work from this season is behind him. And note that his K’s per 9 have taken a significant drop since the All Star break, from 9.2 to 7.2, while hits per 9 are up from 7.7 to 10.6, a sign of someone wearing down. That fully brings one of the worst bullpens in the game into play for the latter stages. The Rockies are averaging 6.7 runs per game on this home stand, most of that against better pitching than they will see tonight.

Alex White makes his Colorado debut tonight, but only once in his four rehab starts at AA did he go beyond four IP. The Rockies want to see his stuff without overly taxing him, and that could mean a plethora of late-game headaches. Who eats the innings? Huston Street and Matt Lindstrom are on the DL. Rafael Betancourt has worked three straight days. J. C. Romero has worked three of the last four days, throwing 54 pitches in the process, and Matt Reynolds worked Saturday and last night, throwing 46. There just are not many quality options, so we could see plenty of late-game explosions in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Keith Fredrick

Padres at Giants
Pick: Giants -139

First things first, I made this line Giants -170, so certainly not going to pass up a price that is thirty cents less than that. Also, yesterday's day off for both teams hurts the momentum of the Padres and helps refresh the Giants, who are also back at home for this after a long road trip. Finally, note that San Fran has won three straight games against Latos.