Thursday's Best NFL Bet
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-2, 37)
While the Green Bay Packers were the 2010 Super Bowl champions, Kansas City had a very strong season in their own right going 10-6 and making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. They will try and build on that success and attempt to repeat as AFC West champions in 2011.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t exactly looked sharp this preseason, losing all three games and getting outscored 70-23 in the process. Matt Cassel has looked a bit rusty thus far, completing less than 50 percent of his passes and yet to throw a touchdown strike. Jamaal Charles has hardly seen the field, carrying the ball just six times. Jackie Battle has been the one carrying the load this preseason, rushing the 34 times, but amassing just 112 yards and with a fumble. Dwayne Bowe has been semi active in the offense over the past two games getting 12 targets, but has caught just four passes for 54 yards. Bowe had over 1100 yards receiving in a pass attack that had just 3100 yards last year, and the next highest receiving total by a wide out was 200 by Chris Chambers. The Chiefs are likely to once again be a run first squad, having ranked first in the league last year with 164 yards a game. The Kansas City defense recently suffered a blow to their receiving depth, losing Brandon Siler for the year with a torn Achilles.
Green Bay has done much better this preseason than strong teams historically do, winning two of the three games including the last two. Aaron Rodgers shredded the Colts defense in the last preseason game, completing 19 of 23 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. Jermichael Finley has looked fully healthy and was on the same page as Rodgers in the victory, catching four passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. The starting running back spot is still up in the air and it will likely be a time share between Ryan Grant and Starks, but Grant was recently asked to take a pay cut if he wanted a roster spot so the Packers must have a lot of faith in Starks after his strong postseason performance. The Green Bay defense that ranked second in scoring last year have struggled this preseason, allowing 69 points in three games.
Kansas City appears very uninterested this preseason, and they won’t be out to prove anything in week four either. This week is the toughest to predict with starters expected to see only limited action. But the Packers have the advantage on every string of the team, so they should be in good shape to win a third straight.
CORY'S PICK: Packers -4.5
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (+2, 40)
The Buffalo Bills host the Detroit Lions in their final preseason games of 2011.
Since the final preseason game generally is about the second and third string players, while we are going to be covering them, they aren’t going to get nearly the attention of the first three games or of course a regular season game simply because of the lack of information surrounding them.
The Buffalo Bills have looked decent in the preseason and they played out game three and got some luck going their way as a normally dependable Josh Scobee missed a game winning field goal try for the Jaguars allowing Rian Lindell to kick the game winner in overtime. Of course the Bills have to happy about the win but at the same time concerned that they had to battle back just to get to overtime after leading 17-0 at one point. I’m not expecting to see Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, or C.J. Spiller much if at all in this one so it will be the same players that watched the lead get away from them and then battle back. This is more the Tyler Thigpen battle with Levi Brown for the backup spot and defensively we’ll see Kelvin Sheppard and Joshua Nesbitt as the Bills see exactly how their depth chart looks when they open the season.
The Detroit Lions blasted the New England Patriots last week and it’s going to give the Lions some confidence as the expectations are sky high headed into the season. Unfortunately for the fans paying full price to watch this one live they are going to see any of the Lions high priced players especially those who have had injury problems in the past like Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best. Calvin Johnson, Ndamakong Suh, and Corey Williams will be among those watching this from the sidelines as Drew Stanton, Titus Young, Zac Robinson, Ian Johnson, and Mike Bell battle it out on the field. It’s actually Detroit’s battle for running back spots which could be the most interesting angle of this game.
Of all preseason games week four are the toughest to pick followed by week one just because we aren’t sure what we are going to see and picking NFL football against the spread is one of the toughest things in all of sports handicapping and where the sports books make their living. As we see Buffalo’s second string and beyond, we see lousy run defense and with Detroit’s battles a RB we’ll see plenty of running the ball so the Lions would be the choice if I were to play this one.
MITCH'S PICK: Lions -2
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-2, 37)
While the Green Bay Packers were the 2010 Super Bowl champions, Kansas City had a very strong season in their own right going 10-6 and making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. They will try and build on that success and attempt to repeat as AFC West champions in 2011.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t exactly looked sharp this preseason, losing all three games and getting outscored 70-23 in the process. Matt Cassel has looked a bit rusty thus far, completing less than 50 percent of his passes and yet to throw a touchdown strike. Jamaal Charles has hardly seen the field, carrying the ball just six times. Jackie Battle has been the one carrying the load this preseason, rushing the 34 times, but amassing just 112 yards and with a fumble. Dwayne Bowe has been semi active in the offense over the past two games getting 12 targets, but has caught just four passes for 54 yards. Bowe had over 1100 yards receiving in a pass attack that had just 3100 yards last year, and the next highest receiving total by a wide out was 200 by Chris Chambers. The Chiefs are likely to once again be a run first squad, having ranked first in the league last year with 164 yards a game. The Kansas City defense recently suffered a blow to their receiving depth, losing Brandon Siler for the year with a torn Achilles.
Green Bay has done much better this preseason than strong teams historically do, winning two of the three games including the last two. Aaron Rodgers shredded the Colts defense in the last preseason game, completing 19 of 23 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. Jermichael Finley has looked fully healthy and was on the same page as Rodgers in the victory, catching four passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. The starting running back spot is still up in the air and it will likely be a time share between Ryan Grant and Starks, but Grant was recently asked to take a pay cut if he wanted a roster spot so the Packers must have a lot of faith in Starks after his strong postseason performance. The Green Bay defense that ranked second in scoring last year have struggled this preseason, allowing 69 points in three games.
Kansas City appears very uninterested this preseason, and they won’t be out to prove anything in week four either. This week is the toughest to predict with starters expected to see only limited action. But the Packers have the advantage on every string of the team, so they should be in good shape to win a third straight.
CORY'S PICK: Packers -4.5
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (+2, 40)
The Buffalo Bills host the Detroit Lions in their final preseason games of 2011.
Since the final preseason game generally is about the second and third string players, while we are going to be covering them, they aren’t going to get nearly the attention of the first three games or of course a regular season game simply because of the lack of information surrounding them.
The Buffalo Bills have looked decent in the preseason and they played out game three and got some luck going their way as a normally dependable Josh Scobee missed a game winning field goal try for the Jaguars allowing Rian Lindell to kick the game winner in overtime. Of course the Bills have to happy about the win but at the same time concerned that they had to battle back just to get to overtime after leading 17-0 at one point. I’m not expecting to see Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, or C.J. Spiller much if at all in this one so it will be the same players that watched the lead get away from them and then battle back. This is more the Tyler Thigpen battle with Levi Brown for the backup spot and defensively we’ll see Kelvin Sheppard and Joshua Nesbitt as the Bills see exactly how their depth chart looks when they open the season.
The Detroit Lions blasted the New England Patriots last week and it’s going to give the Lions some confidence as the expectations are sky high headed into the season. Unfortunately for the fans paying full price to watch this one live they are going to see any of the Lions high priced players especially those who have had injury problems in the past like Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best. Calvin Johnson, Ndamakong Suh, and Corey Williams will be among those watching this from the sidelines as Drew Stanton, Titus Young, Zac Robinson, Ian Johnson, and Mike Bell battle it out on the field. It’s actually Detroit’s battle for running back spots which could be the most interesting angle of this game.
Of all preseason games week four are the toughest to pick followed by week one just because we aren’t sure what we are going to see and picking NFL football against the spread is one of the toughest things in all of sports handicapping and where the sports books make their living. As we see Buffalo’s second string and beyond, we see lousy run defense and with Detroit’s battles a RB we’ll see plenty of running the ball so the Lions would be the choice if I were to play this one.
MITCH'S PICK: Lions -2

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