9-3-11

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Where the action is: NCAAF Week 1 line moves

Las Vegas oddsmaker Sterling Ross looks at the biggest movers and shakers for Week 1 of the college football season. Find out which spreads and totals are up or down and where they’ll finish by the time kickoff rolls around.

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears

Opening Line: TCU -10, Current -3.5

This isn’t your run of the mill line move. I believe the right opening number for this game was TCU -7 and that explains the movement. Over 70 percent of the action is on the Horned Frogs but there continues to be sharp bets on the underdog at this spread.

TCU isn’t the same unit that beat Wisconsin in last year’s Rose Bowl, returning only eight starters and breaking in a brand new starting QB Casey Pachall that’s battled shoulder problems all fall.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a move every handicapper should pay attention to but for anyone looking to tail steam, be very weary of betting into a dog number where all value’s been zapped. Right now, the value may actually have shifted to the favorite and I fully expect there to be steam the other way if the line were to dip as low as -3.

Utah State Aggies at Auburn Tigers

Opening Line: Auburn -28, Moved to 21, Current -23

Everyone is well aware expectations are high down on the plains this year following Auburn’s national title a season ago. If a bowl berth is even in the cards this season, Gene Chizik will need to get this talented bunch of youngsters to gel awfully fast.

The marketplace expects Auburn to experience growing pains and that’s why the number dropped so hard and fast, but the Tigers are still getting 73 percent of the action. Gary Andersen is 8-2 ATS as a road dog during his two years in Logan and, given the current line move, early-bird bettors expected this game to stay inside the three-TD price tag. Despite the inevitable buyback from middlers, sharp money is backing the Aggies as they head to Jordan Hare.

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal

Opening Line: Stanford -27, Current -30

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Cardinal will go as far as Andrew Luck takes them. Stanford is a team that overachieved in 2011 and only brings back 11 starters this year, albeit with the Heisman front runner. San Jose State isn’t a good football team but they do have a wealth of returning experience, including all 11 starters on defense.

I feel this is an awfully steep price tag, especially as the line creeps over 28 due to the barrage of public money backing the highly touted Cardinal (87 percent of wagers on Stanford). Look for some buyback in the marketplace as the price climbs. Keep in mind, the last two times these Bay area programs met their games were decided by 13 points in 2008 and 25 in 2009, both Cardinal covers.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners

Opening Line: Oklahoma -22.5, Moved to 20.5, Current -25

The public was only going to come in one way on this game and they haven’t let us down so far. The early money came in on Tulsa which was a prime example of wiseguys manipulating the number with low limits so they could pounce on anything under three TDs.

Tulsa already had their hands full with OU and now with the suspension of Damaris Johnson, and his 1,453 all-purpose yards, makes the mountain even steeper for the Golden Hurricane.

Look for the public to continue laying the lumber with reckless abandon (nearly 90 percent of action on the Sooners) knowing OU might score every time they touch the ball. This line is only going one direction and I don’t see a stop for this public freight train anywhere in site.

Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins

Opening Line: Miami -4, Moved to Miami -5.5, Current Maryland -3

The off-field turmoil in Miami is contributing to the move, making Maryland 3-point chalk for Monday night. Miami will be without the services of DL Marcus Forston , DL Adewale Ojomo, LB Sean Spence, WR Travis Benjamin, and QB Jacory Harris as they head to College Park.

Explaining this line move is rather simple since it’s all about what weapons Miami won’t have at its disposal, instead of what Maryland brings to the table. It’s always tough to gauge the impact of controversy but this line says Miami may as well not show up. I don’t know if I agree with the 9-point move myself and expect there to be some late Hurricane money if the price creeps past +3.

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Saturday's betting tips: Clemson on Death Valley skid

Who’s hot

MLB: The Rays are 5-1 in Wade Davis’ last six starts.

MLB: The Dodgers are 5-2 in their last seven games against a lefty starter.

NCAAF: The over is 7-1 in Houston’s last eight home games.

WNBA: Seattle is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games against San Antonio.

Who’s not

MLB: The Mets are 0-4 in Dillon Gee’s last four outings following a quality start in his last appearance.

MLB: The Indians are 2-9 in David Huff’s last 11 starts on grass.

NCAAF: Clemson is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games.

WNBA: Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games.

Injury not to be overlooked

Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen had to leave Friday’s game against the Cubs when he was hit by a pitch in the area around his left wrist. Pittsburgh’s cleanup hitter, McCutchen is batting .271 with 20 homers and 81 RBIs in a breakout season.

Key stat

29 – That’s how many times Rafael Furcal has led off a game with a homer after doing it Wednesday and Thursday against the Brewers. Furcal tied Kenny Lofton for the 13th-most leadoff homers in history. Furcal was 9-for-29 (.310) over his last nine games heading into Friday’s action, a major reason for St. Louis’ recent surge.

Game of the day

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU (3.5, 54.5)

Notable quotable

“He played with a very cool head and made good decisions. He played the way you want him to out there -- calm, cool, collected." – 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh aftger naming Alex Smith his starting QB. San Fran is a 6-point favorite in its Sept. 11 opener against Seattle.

Notes and tips

The Vikings and Saints will each be without a key defensive lineman for their first two games. The NFL suspended Minnesota DT Kevin Williams and New Orleans DE Will Smith without pay for violating the league’s policy on performing-enhancing substances. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers certainly won’t mind the absence of Smith (18.5 sacks the past two years) in Thursday’s opener. Host Green Bay is favored by four.

Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira missed Friday’s game against the Blue Jays with a bruised right knee, and he could miss the whole series. Teixeira, who ranks second on the team with 35 homers and 100 RBIs, was hit by a pitch thrown by Boston’s Alfredo Aceves on Thursday.

Florida Atlantic coach Howard Schnellenberger is expected to be on the sideline when his team plays Florida in Gainesville on Saturday. Schnellenberger, 77, complained of severe discomfort in his surgically repaired hip during a Friday bus ride and was taken to a hospital. But X-rays determined the problem wasn’t serious.

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Saturday's streaking and slumping pitchers

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays, 13-9, 2.84 ERA

The 26-year-old lefty has won six straight decisions, and Toronto has won his last eight starts. Batters are hitting just .214 against him. Romero has gone seven straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks, 17-4, 3.03 ERA

Tied for the NL lead in wins with Clayton Kershaw, Kennedy has allowed one earned run over his last two starts covering 14 innings. Kennedy is 9-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last 10 starts. Batters are hitting .232 against him.

SLUMPING

Brad Penny, Detroit Tigers, 9-10, 5.07 ERA

Penny has a terrible strikeout-to-walk ration of 65:50. He gave up two homers and seven earned runs in five innings against the Twins last time out. Batters are hitting .297 against him.

Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins, 9-13, 5.09 ERA

The 28-year-old lefty has given up 16 earned runs over his last three starts covering 13 innings. Batters are hitting .303 against him. The Twins have dropped five of his last six starts.

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Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (-150, 8)

Braves lefty Mike Minor is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA over his last three starts. Atlanta has won his last seven starts and eight of 10 overall when he takes the mound.

Dodgers starter Nathan Eovaldi has been decent in his five starts, posting a 3.46 ERA.

But he struggled badly in his last outing, at home against Colorado. He allowed five earned runs on six hits and two walks over four innings.

In their last 54 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, the Braves are 40-14.

Pick: Braves

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-105, 9)

A key AL Central series continues Saturday at Comerica Park when the White Sox face the Tigers.

Chicago starter Gavin Floyd has an unreal WHIP of 0.75 over his last three starts. The Sox have won all three. In Floyd’s last 12 starts against Detroit, Chicago is 9-3.

Detroit’s Brad Penny, meanwhile, just gave up seven earned runs over five innings in an 11-4 loss to the Twins. Batters are hitting .297 against him this season.

The Tigers are 1-4 in Penny’s last five starts, 2-5 in his last seven starts overall.

Pick: White Sox

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What Bettors Need To Know: Oregon vs. LSU


Oregon Ducks vs. LSU Tigers (+4, 54.5)

THE STORY: Two key players will be missing when No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 LSU square off in the marquee Saturday game of college football’s opening weekend. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson was one of two Tigers suspended indefinitely after being arrested on second-degree felony battery charges following a recent altercation outside a bar. Oregon will be without star cornerback Cliff Harris, who was suspended indefinitely because of an off-season speeding incident. The Ducks lost to Auburn in last season’s BCS National Championship Game and are candidates to return this season. LSU is also forecasted to be in the title mix and figures to battle Alabama for the Southeastern Conference's West Division crown.

TV: ABC. LINE: Oregon -4

ABOUT LSU (11-2 in 2010): The Tigers have been dealing with distractions because of the incident in which Jefferson and sophomore linebacker Joshua Johns were arrested and suspended. Also, junior receiver Russell Shepard was suspended by the NCAA for a rules violation. The loss of Jefferson puts senior quarterback Jarrett Lee back in the spotlight. Lee started eight games in 2008 but had an up-and-down campaign in which he passed for 14 touchdowns and was intercepted 16 times. He started only once in the past two seasons. Senior cornerback Morris Claiborne (five interceptions) is an All-American candidate after playing in the shadow of shutdown corner Patrick Peterson, the fifth overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. Senior linebacker Ryan Baker had seven sacks in 2010.

ABOUT OREGON (12-1 in 2010): The Ducks are explosive on offense and the two biggest factors for that are back for their junior seasons. Running back LaMichael James is one of the nation’s top players after rushing for 1,731 yards and finishing third in the Heisman Trophy balloting. Quarterback Darron Thomas passed for 30 touchdowns and was intercepted only nine times. Senior middle linebacker Dewitt Stuckey will be counted on to lead the defense after the offseason arrest of Kiko Alonso. The situation with Harris (six interceptions in 2010) isn’t Oregon’s only recent controversial issue. Running back Lache Seastrunk was given his release from the program in August and announced a transfer to Baylor. The NCAA is investigating whether Seastrunk was influenced to choose Oregon by a recruiting service that Oregon paid $25,000.

LINE MOVES: This spread has pulled from the board numerous times heading into Week 1. Louisiana State was originally posted as a 3-point neutral-site favorite on August 5, but with Johns and Jefferson’s suspensions the spread has dropped to LSU +4. The total opened at 55.5 points and has been bet down to 54.5 as of Friday afternoon.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This is the fourth meeting between the Tigers and Ducks. LSU won the most recent contest 56-17 in 1977.

2. Thomas’ 30 passing scores last season were two shy of the school record set by Akili Smith in 1998.

3. LSU assistant Steve Kragthorpe stepped down as offensive coordinator in early August after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease and Greg Studrawa was promoted to coordinator.

TRENDS:

- Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September.
- Ducks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.
- Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
- Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
- Over is 22-8-2 in Ducks last 32 games as favorites.
- Under is 29-14-1 in Tigers last 44 games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Oregon 38, LSU 23 - The powerful Ducks use their offensive firepower to overwhelm LSU’s defense and Oregon's defense limits the inconsistent Lee to win the showdown of top five teams.

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Game of the day: Boise State vs. Georgia


Boise State Broncos vs. Georgia Bulldogs (+3, 50.5)

THE STORY: Georgia qualifies as Boise State’s toughest non-conference opponent despite the fact the Bulldogs finished below .500 last season. The No. 7 Broncos won high-profile openers the past two seasons against Oregon (2009) and Virginia Tech (2010) and need to beat No. 22 Georgia to have any chance of garnering national championship talk. Bulldogs coach Mark Richt is on the hot seat. He is 96-34 in 10 seasons at Georgia, but 14-12 over the past two seasons. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore was fourth in last season’s Heisman Trophy balloting. The Broncos are 0-4 against SEC foes.

On Friday, Boise State announced it will be without three Dutch-born players -- receiver Geraldo Boldewijn, safety Cedric Febis and defensive tackle Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe -- pending a review of their eligibility. All three players are not traveling. The review is not related to academics or rules violations, the school said. Boldewijn, a sophomore, was expected to have a significant role this season following the departures of Austin Pettis and Titus Young to the NFL. Febis is a starting senior safety and will be replaced by redshirt freshman Jeremy Ioane. Tjong-A-Tjoe, a sophomore backup to Billy Winn, played in 12 games last season and made 6.5 tackles for loss.

TV: ESPN. LINE: Boise State -3.5.

ABOUT GEORGIA (6-7 in 2010): The Bulldogs are coming off their first losing season since 1996. Sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray passed for 3,049 yards, 24 touchdowns and was intercepted eight times last season, but receivers A.J. Green and Kris Durham have moved on to the NFL, leaving junior tight end Orson Charles (422 yards) as his most feared target. Junior Richard Samuel and freshman Isaiah Crowell are slated to share the rushing workload after the off-season departures of Washaun Ealey (transfer) and Caleb King (academics). Samuel (quadriceps) and Crowell (groin) both had injury setbacks during August. Senior DeAngelo Tyson has moved over to defensive end after playing in the interior last season. Senior cornerback Brandon Boykin is a dangerous returner with four career kickoff return touchdowns. Boykin and junior safety Bacarri Rambo each had three interceptions in 2010.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (12-1 in 2010): The Broncos are 61-5 in Chris Petersen’s five seasons as coach. Moore is 38-2 as a starter and coming off a season in which he passed for 3,845 yards and 35 touchdowns against only six interceptions. However, he lost school-icon receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL and is adjusting to a lot of new targets. Senior Tyler Shoemaker (32 receptions) is the top holdover. Senior running back Doug Martin is coming off a 1,260-yard season. Seven starters are back from a stingy defense, including senior defensive tackle Billy Winn (9.5 tackles for loss), senior defensive end Shea McClellin (9.5 sacks) and safety George Iloka (two interceptions).

LINE MOVES: This line has remained steady, with a short move to 3.5 before being bet back to a field goal. The total opened as high as 52 points and has been bet down to 50.5 as of Friday afternoon.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Georgia mauled Boise State 48-13 in 2005 in the only other meeting.

2. Boykin is the only player in SEC history with three 100-yard kickoff returns.

3. Moore has thrown a school-record 99 career touchdown passes.

TRENDS:

- Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral-site games.
- Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites.
- Broncos are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 non-conference games.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in September.
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Boise State 30, Georgia 24 - Petersen has proven tough to beat when he has a long time to prepare for a BCS-caliber opponent, so look for the Broncos to prevail despite a pro-Georgia atmosphere in Atlanta

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BANG THE BOOK

Saturday's Best NCAACFB Bets

Colorado Buffaloes at Hawaii Warriors (-6.5, 55)

The Colorado Buffaloes make their debut carrying the Pac-12 banner on Saturday when they head to the Big Island to take on the Hawaii Warriors.

The Buffs made the move into the Pac-12 from the Big XII, and it is a move that it probably will end up appreciating in the long run. Still, this program is a wreck right now thanks to the horrible tenure of Dan Hawkins. Last year, this team ranked No. 84 in the land in scoring at just 24.2 points per game and didn’t rank in the top half of the nation in any major category offensively. Now, a lot of the garbage is gone from this squad, though RB Rodney Stewart and his 1,318 rushing yards from a year ago returns. Of course, the defense really wasn’t a whole heck of a lot better, especially in the secondary. Not a good problem to have when you’re playing against Hawaii. This secondary conceded 259.8 yards per game a season ago, 110th in the nation. Of course, when you play against teams like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, you’re going to give up plenty of passing yards. However, there’s no excuse for ranking dead last in the Big XII. That’s why Colorado has been awful for years, and that’s why the team is going to probably get off to a rocky start in the Pac-12 this year as well.

Meanwhile if you’re Hawaii, you have to be grinning from ear to ear right now. The team averaged 39.6 points per game last season, and though it suffered a brutal loss in its own bowl game, it was still a 10 win season last year. The Warriors put up 508.6 yards per game, No. 5 in the land, and they are bringing back their catalyst of the bunch, QB Bryant Moniz. Moniz threw for 5,040 yard a season ago, and he has the potential to be even better this season. The problem is that he has lost a slew of his top targets from a season ago. RB Alex Green is gone, as are both of the 1,300+ yard receivers from last year, Kealoha Pilares and Greg Salas. However, this run and gun offense has always been stellar no matter what pieces of the puzzle have been involved, and we are sure that WR Royce Pollard will be able to step in and be a 1,500 yard receiver in his own right this year after going for 901 yards and seven scores as the third wide out in 2010.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Hawaii Warriors Pick: The Warriors just have a whole heck of a lot more going for them right now than the Buffs do. Hawaii just doesn’t lose here on the Big Island, and after getting knocked off so badly by the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the Hawaii Bowl, this is the perfect spot for some revenge.

PICK: Hawaii -7


Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners (-25, 65)

Bragging rights in the Sooner State will be handed out on Saturday night in NCAA football betting action, as the Tulsa Golden Hurricane look to dismantle the Oklahoma Sooners.

Tulsa was shocked late in the offseason when Head Coach Todd Graham ended up going to the Pitt Panthers to replace the dismissed Mike Haywood, who had all sorts of off the field issues. You think that Pitt had to scramble to find a coach? What about poor Tulsa! The Golden Hurricane ended up promoting offensive mastermind Bill Blankenship to the head coaching position, where he will almost certainly be keeping this crazy Gus Malzahn designed offense intact. Senior QB GJ Kinne is going to be the man running the show this year once again after leading the team in rushing (561 yards) and passing (3,650 yards). He also gets back his top target, a do-it-all in WR Damaris Johnson. The Tulsa offense was good for 507.9 yards and 41.4 points per game last season, but the questions came up defensively once again. Allowing 319.0 passing yards per game is a cardinal sin, even if you are playing in Conference USA, and the end result was conceding far, far, far too many points for Tulsa’s liking. The offense was good enough to bring this team to 10 wins, but it’s clear that this defense isn’t stopping the mighty Sooners on Saturday.

Oklahoma comes into this one trying to protect its No. 1 overall rating in the country. Many think that the Sooners are absolutely the best team in the land, and for good reason. QB Landry Jones has to be licking his chops at the prospects of facing this defense, as he has the ability to throw for over 400 yards easily. This would be a fine way to start off a Heisman Trophy campaign that could feature tossing the rock around for 5,000+ yards and 40, maybe even 50 TDs depending on how well the offense stays in sync. WR Ryan Broyles has had a history of posting games that look like this… 14 catches, 185 yards, 3 TDs… and we could be looking at the same sort of stat line this time around as well. Normally speaking, we’d be afraid of the old “look ahead” spot that the Sooners could be mired in with the trip to Florida State coming up in two weeks, but with a full bye week to prepare, especially with Oklahoma’s recent woes against some of the top mid-major teams in the nation, you know that Head Coach Bob Stoops isn’t letting the team overlook this game.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: And that’s why we’re laying the lumber in this one. These two teams met in 2009 and 2007, and the end result was a combined Oklahoma victory 107-21. Don’t be shocked if this one is very, very ugly by halftime.

PICK: Oklahoma -24.5


Boise State Broncos at Georgia Bulldogs (+3, 51)

The Boise State Broncos make their debut as the new kids on the block in the Mountain West this Saturday night in a huge non-conference showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs out of the SEC at the Georgia Dome. The game is slated to kick-off at 8 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Boise State’s departure from the WAC now gives it a chance to dominate a new conference as a prohibitive 2/7 favorite to win the MWC in its first season. It is also opens the season as a prominent fixture in the BCS picture as the fifth-favorite to win a national title at 14/1.

The reason for such lofty expectations is that the Broncos return 14 starters from last season’s 12-1 squad including quarterback Kellen Moore and running back Doug Martin. Moore completed an amazing 71.3 percent of his passes last season for 3,506 yards and 33 touchdowns on his way to being named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. Martin balanced things out in the running game with 1,113 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. These two were an integral part of why Boise State finished the 2010 season ranked second in the nation in scoring with an average of 45.1 points a game.

Georgia comes into this game with much higher expectations that its performance in 2010 would suggest. The Bulldogs finished a very mediocre 6-7 including an embarrassing 10-6 loss to Central Florida as a six-point favorite in the Liberty Bowl.

Their hopes to start this season on a strong note fall onto the arm of sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray. He threw for over 3000 yards as a redshirt freshman, aided by the presence of wide receiver A.J. Green. Green is now in the NFL, so look for Tacarres King and Rantavious Wooten to become Murray’s primary targets against the Broncos.

Boise State finished the 2010 season 9-4 against the spread. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last 10 games. Georgia was 5-8 ATS last season and the total went ‘over’ in eight of its last 10 games.

These two teams last played one another in 2005 with the Bulldogs coasting to a 48-13 victory as a 7.5-point home favorite. That was a long time ago as Moore and the Broncos have the upper hand this time around and take full advantage of the opportunity to earn a crucial win in their quest for a national title.

PICK: Boise State -3

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

708- 526 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one SAT: Army + 10

[timbob]

Hondo

Hondo added yet another C-note to the damage report last night when the Rays betrayed him with a loss in Texas that pushed the dirty digits to 3,165 lindblads.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will try the "Yankees and Sox let down after playing each other" theory -- 20 units apiece on the Blue Jays and Rangers.

[timbob]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Mets -115

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DAVID M@LINSKY

4* BALL ST/INDIANA UNDER 55.5

They have this Total in the mid-50’s because of the well-publicized notions that both Indiana and Ball State are going to “no huddle” offenses this season, and want to play at faster paces under their new coaches, Kevin Wilson and Pete Lembo. But we are not sure that either team necessarily plays all that much faster in this opener, and we will call for some very sloppy offensive execution throughout.

Here is the problem – not only are both teams having to install new offensive systems, but the playmakers to make them work are not there. Indiana has had a 3-way battle for the starting QB spot between true FR Tre Roberson, SO Dusty Kiel and SO Ed Wright-Baker (the most likely to get the nod) that has been so competitive that Wilson has still not named a starter. That is a real problem when installing a new scheme, because no individual QB gets enough reps with the first-team offense to develop a rhythm. And it is exacerbated by losing WR’s Tandon Doss and Terrance Turner, who combined for 130 catches LY and are being replaced by a pair of SO’s. Meanwhile starting RB Darius Willis was lost with a fall camp injury, with RS FR Matt Perez taking over the starting role in his first appearance. Backing him up is JuCo transfer Stephen Houston, who will also be playing in an Indiana uniform for the first time. So just how fast can this bunch play, and how effective can they be?

Meanwhile Ball State has also suffered attrition already at RB, with walk-on Barrington Scott, who has never played in a game, the current starter, and FR Jahwan Edwards backing him up. So here is a rarity – the top two RB’s on the depth charts for these teams have never played a Division I game. SO QB Keith Wenning is a decent long-term prospect, but he is learning his second system in as many seasons, which means plenty of growing pains. So instead of a fast-paced tempo, expect some deliberation as the play calls come in from the sidelines, and plenty of confusion and sluggish offensive play. You do not get to this high of a Total that way.

[timbob]

WNBA Basketball Picks
Seattle at San Antonio

The Storm look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Seattle is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3). Here are all of today's picks. (Note: I will not be posting WNBA picks for this Sunday or Monday...I apologize for the inconvenience. BD)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Seattle at San Antonio (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 109.703; San Antonio 110.844
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 138
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under

Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 106.792; Phoenix 115.460
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 177
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-7); Over

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Today's MLB Picks
Toronto at NY Yankees

The Blue Jays look to build on their 8-0 record in Ricky Romero's last 8 starts. Toronto is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120). Here are all of today's picks. (Note: I will not be posting baseball picks for this Sunday or Monday...I apologize for the inconvenience. BD)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.336; Cubs (Coleman) 15.013
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at St. Louis (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.946; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.612
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Under

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.582; Houston (Norris) 14.553
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Under

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.377; Washington (Milone) 14.731
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); Over

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.123; Florida (Nolasco) 14.275
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Eovaldi) 16.535; Atlanta (Minor) 14.907
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+130); Over

Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (White) 14.272; San Diego (Luebke) 14.796
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Over

Game 965-966: Arizona at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.398; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.807
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Under

Game 967-968: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.617; NY Yankees (Colon) 15.835
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under

Game 969-970: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Pineda) 14.251; Oakland (McCarthy) 15.641
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Over

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 16.018; Detroit (Penny) 14.396
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Over

Game 973-974: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Simon) 14.885; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.134
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under

Game 975-976: Cleveland at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.642; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.241
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under

Game 977-978: Texas at Boston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 16.803; Boston (Bedard) 15.780
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+130); Over

Game 979-980: Minnesota at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 13.983; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.576
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-265); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-265); Under

[timbob]

Gamblers Ally (Swami capper @ Pregame)

2* [148] Boston College
2* [162] USC
2* [175] Fresno St
2* [193] Colorado

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Vegas Vic/Philly Daily News

Utah St.

South Florida

Georgia