9-11-11

[Mr. IWS]

Chip Chirimbes

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -5½

One of the NFL's more embarrassing moment came when not only did Seattle make the playoffs but they even upset the reining Super Bowl Champion Saints in the opening round at home. This game will make two coaching rivals who have a history from their days in the PAC-10 as Stanford a 40½ underdogs under Jim Harbaugh upset Pete Carroll's USC 24-23 and then two years later beating the Trojans 55-21. Harbaugh has Carroll's number and a home field advantage.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +135 over N.Y. Giants

It’s near impossible to lose five defensive starters for the season before a regular season snap has taken place. Yet, that’s exactly where the Giants find themselves and if you think they can just plug in suitable replacements, you’re in for a surprise. The preseason means nothing, true, but giving up an average of 13 yards per catch in the preseason like the G-Men did is a tell tale sign of things to come. Res Grossman can move the chains if he’s given time to scan the field. He’ll be able to if the Skins can establish a running game and everything points to them doing just that. Eli Manning has talent, but can be very erratic without the aid of an effective running game. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Haslett to be aggressive with a mix of eight-man fronts as well as zone run blitzes. The Giants also lost a couple of offensive guys in the off-season as both Steve Smith and Kevin Boss left via free agency. The Giants are in a lot of trouble but they’re taking most of the money this week as more of a fade against Washington. That’s a red flag. The Skins struggled in 2010 but with a strong linebacking corps (London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan, Rocky McIntosh and Brian Orakpo) and a solid running game, the Redskins figure to be more competitive than many believe this season and that may be displayed right here. Skins outright. Play: Washington +135 (Risking 2 units).


ST. LOUIS +4½ over Philadelphia

Turn on any radio sports talk show about three weeks ago and all you heard was Eagles. On TV previews and in football publications it was Eagles, Eagles and more Eagles. The media can really overhype teams and after an extremely aggressive offseason by Philadelphia's front office, expectations are through the roof for this franchise. The Eagles retooled defensively after allowing a franchise-worst 31 touchdown passes last year. While that weakness figures to improve with off-season signings of key cornerbacks, there are still issues on this team that leave something to be desired. Notably, Michael Vick may have to run in order to cover for his troublesome offensive line and Vick takes a ton of risks -- many of them unnecessary -- when delivering the football. Everything aligned right for Vick last season but in this league, without protection, big trouble is awaiting. The Rams have really turned things around. Conversely, they have a solid front-line protecting their franchise quarterback and Sam Bradford has the skills and intellect to take advantage. The Rams have a vast stable of pass catchers. St. Louis’s strong coaching staff cut some decent players this year, indicating the true depth of this emerging team. They can definitely compete here against this overvalued favorite. Very tempting to play the Rams on money line but we’ll wait ‘til Sunday and likely get the Rams +4½ + a little juice. Play: St. Louis +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


Cincinnati +6½ over CLEVELAND

It’s easy to bang on the Bengals. Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe what goes on in Cincinnati annually. As much as the Eagles were overhyped before this season, the Bengals were the complete opposite in that they’ve been the target of disgrace by every media outlet there is. How bad has it been? Carson Palmer left 10 million on the table. Palmer basically paid over 10 million dollars to not be associated with this team any more and now Andy Dalton steps in. Dalton is talented but he’s still a rookie with not a lot of offensive weapons. Thing is, the Brownies pass rush was non-existent a year ago and they didn’t do much to improve. Give any NFL QB time and he’ll succeed. Having rid of its malcontents and having the chance to face its in-state rivals, this Cincy team can expel their humiliation with a solid effort here. The Brownies are under new direction in 2011 with head coach Pat Shurmur at the helm. The Browns appear to be improving but not enough to warrant this big of a tag as a divisional favorite. Cleveland has suffered some significant pre-season injuries, they still lack quality wide-outs and they have a lot more to prove before they can be endorsed laying points like this. Play: Cincinnati +6½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).


Tennessee +117 over JACKSONVILLE

The Titans are coming off a horrible year. They went 6-10 and lost seven of its final eight games. Subsequently, the Titans cleaned house in terms of the coaching staff and QB’s. Owner Bud Adams promoted offensive line coach Mike Munchak to head coach and the Titans got rid of Kerry Collins and Vince Young. Enter Matt Hasselbeck and his young prodigy, Jake Locker. Hasselbeck accomplished more in Seattle with no talent around him then most would have. He’s an established and proven QB that can do some real damage, especially against weak teams. Hasselbeck can now look around the huddle and see both three-time Pro Bowl running back Chris Johnson and top receiver Kenny Britt. The Titans may be a team that’s being overlooked this year, as they can run, they have a very decent defense and with Hasselbeck back there, the passing game is 100% guaranteed to improve. Meanwhile, in a stunning move, the Jags released David Garrard less than a week before the season starts. One really has to wonder if that was a football move or a financial one because Luke McCown has proven nothing in his career with one win in seven attempts as the starting QB. Nice. Jacksonville does have one of the game's best running backs in Maurice Jones- Drew, however, a one-dimensional offense can’t succeed too often at this level. The Titans are superior at QB, on defense, in playmakers and everywhere else. The Jags have a price to pay for releasing Garrard and saving a crap-load of dough and that price will be paid on opening day. Play: Tennessee +117 (Risking 2 units).


Buffalo +6 over KANSAS CITY

Add coach Todd Haley to the dwindling list of “old-school” coaches that have no idea how to handle new-school athletes. Win at any cost, eh coach? Even in the preseason? We thought we had seen everything until we saw Haley’s approach this past preseason. In his world, you play your starters the whole game in the last preseason game. Injuries? Pffft. Matt Cassell is scheduled to start after taking a big blow to the ribs in the teams’ preseason finale. Cassell was listed as doubtful at the beginning of the week but has been upgraded to probable. However, he was hurt badly and he’s a single hit away from watching from the rail. K.C. made the playoffs last year thanks to the schedule maker that had the Chiefs playing every dreg in the league. They played Cleveland, Oakland twice, Buffalo, Jacksonville, San Fran, Denver, Arizona, Tennessee and Seattle before getting torched in the playoffs, 31-7 by the Ravens. The Chiefs did little to improve. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted, that all too brief vacation from the list of teams that football forgot. The Bills came in here last season and lost 13-10 in OT in a game they were clearly the better team in. Buffalo is banking on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a career backup castoff by two other teams, developing into a high-caliber NFL quarterback after he put together an encouraging 2010 season in his first real shot to be a starter. The Bills weren't as bad as last year's record indicated, as three of the 12 losses came in overtime and the team went 4-4 over the second half after losing its first eight games. Defensively, the Bills were awful last season but figure to be better this season. The secondary shapes up as one of the Bills' strengths. Cornerbacks Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence are both quality cover men with substantial game experience, while ball-hawking free safety Jairus Byrd has garnered 10 interceptions in two years and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2009. Hell, the Bills may even be the better team in this matchup and if they’re worse, it’s by the slimmest of margins. Laying points with bad teams is bad strategy, laying six points is suicide. Bills cannot only cover, but they can and probably will win this one outright. Play: Buffalo +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


THE REST with no wagers:


Steelers (0-0) at Ravens (0-0)

Baltimore primed for big season and nothing would start it off better than a victory here. Ravens have the personnel to take back this division while the Steelers appear to be aging. Super Bowl losers have not fared well in subsequent openers with zero wins and just two covers in past 11 seasons. Taking RAVENS –1½


Falcons (0-0) at Bears (0-0)

Atlanta may turn out to be the better team over the long haul but right now, this price seems out of whack. Bears were a division winner and with a Julius Peppers led defense and playing on a grass surface, the hosts become the prudent choice. Taking BEARS +3


Lions (0-0) at Buccaneers (0-0)

Lions could have a huge year but hype has set this line in the wrong place. Tampa was an impressive 10-6 last season and they have just as much promise with some blooming young stars. Asking the Bucs to merely win this game is not a demanding request at all. Taking BUCCANEERS –1


Colts (0-0) at Texans (0-0)

Texans are in best shape ever to seize this division, especially now with Peyton Manning on the shelf for an undetermined time. However, despite Manning’s absence, this seems like overcompensation for a Houston team that has continually disappointed. Taking COLTS +8½


Panthers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)

Bo Jackson recently compared Cam Newton to Dan Marino, John Elway and Michael Vick. Bo doesn’t know football. Newton and his Panthers are in for a long season but we’re still not prepared to spot a full touchdown with a Cardinals team that is banged up, has a suspect running game and is unfamiliar with its new quarterback. Taking PANTHERS +7


Seahawks (0-0) at 49ers (0-0)

Thank goodness for Sunday Ticket. These two could be even worse than last season. The only saving grace for either is that they play in a weak division and that they get to play each other twice. Not prepared to spot any points with Alex Smith and this inept Niners offense. Taking SEAHAWKS +5½


Vikings (0-0) at Chargers (0-0)

The Chargers were tops in both offence and defense statistically last year yet managed to miss the playoffs. While we expect this behavior to stop at some point, we currently don’t have the confidence to be giving away prohibitive points with this erratic host. Taking VIKINGS +8½

[Mr. IWS]

Super Sports Group

Detroit v. Tampa Bay 1pm
PICK: UNDER 41.5 Game Hidden Gem

Atlanta v. Chicago 1pm
PICK: Bears +2.5 Game

Indianapolis v. Houston 1pm
PICK: Colts +9 Game Best bet of the day

Philadelphia v. St Louis 1pm
PICK:Rams +2.5 1H

Giants v. Washington 4:14pm
PICK: Redskins +1.5 1H

Minnesota v. San Diego 4:15pm
PICK: Chargers -8.5 Game Game of the week

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

RAMS +4.5 vs eagles
FALCONS -2 at bears
TITANS +1.5 at jaguars
STEELERS +1 at ravens
CHARGERS -9 vs vikings
COWBOYS +6 at jets (SNF)
PATRIOTS -7 at dolphins (MNF)
BRONCOS -3 vs raiders (MNF II)

[Mr. IWS]

VaS

Top Plays

NFL YTD 0-0

4* Browns -6.5
2* Eagles -4
2* Detroit +1

[Mr. IWS]

Brad Diamond Sports

15* San Diego over Minnesota

Our initial NFL selection came up big with Green Bay on Thursday evening. Now kick back into action with a SMASHING balanced football team in the San Diego Chargers. San Diego did not hit pay dirt last year because of a 2-5 start. They went onto a great season statistically, though finishing #1 in total defense and #1 in total offense. On defense the Chargers have a great shot replicating numbers of last year, especially with former Colts safety Sanders in the starting lineup. Against the run, the defense held 10 teams to under 4 yards per carry in 2010. If the DL and LB group is to be successful this week, RB Peterson will have to be held in check as the Vikings are wholly dependent on his inside success. Critical, offensively, will be the development of QB McNabb in his first field take wearing the Purple and White. The Chargers have stated on all summer, they are determined to come up big early this season as they start with Minnesota and then follow with games against New England, KC, Miami and Denver. If the Chargers defeat the Patriots at NE in week #2 they will be 5-0 before going into a major battle with the Jets in October. Remember the Chargers lost to KC to start 2010, that will not happen here as the club is really fired up. In the last eight games San Diego is 55-25 SU. Technically, the Vikings are 1-5 ATS as road dog (0-6 ATS in this price range), while falling off ATS LY going 5-10-1 ATS overall, and 1-3 ATS LY vs. the AFC. San Diego fields 35-17-2 ATS as a HF in this price range.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Vic/Philadelphia Daily News

Best* to Worst

*Cowboys
Rams
Chiefs
Titans
Redskins
Panthers
Raiders
Ravens
Buccaneers
Falcons
Colts
Browns
49ers
Vikings
Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

PREDICTION MACHINE

61.7% Tennessee Titans +3
61.3% Philadelphia Eagles -5
61.1% Detroit Lions +1.5
59.5% Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Prophet

lions over
eagles over
panthers over
raiders over
pass mlb

[Mr. IWS]

Where the action is: NFL Week 1 lines moves

Week 1 of the NFL presents a difficult task to those bettors tracking line movement. Most of these spreads and totals have been up since the middle of the summer, and have had months of money influencing the numbers.

Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, took a break from his busy weekend schedule to talk about some of the biggest line moves for the opening week of NFL action.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears – Open: Pick, Current: Chicago +3

Many markets had this game as a pick’em when NFL Week 1 lines went up this summer. Rood opened this matchup at 2.5 in favor of the Falcons but jumped to a field goal when sharp money landed on the road team.

“We had one big maximum-limit bet come in from a sharp about two weeks ago,” he says. “But overall, we’re getting good two-way action on this one.”

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans – Open: Pick, Move: Houston -3, Current: -9

This AFC South showdown opened at a pick’em at many books, but as news of Peyton Manning’s neck complications spread, the line grew to a field goal. Once Manning was ruled out earlier this week, books took the game off the board and reopened around 8.5. The spread climbed to -9 with nearly 90 percent of the action on the Texans. Also making major moves was the total, which fell from 47.5 to 43 points after Manning was ruled out.

“You take the field general off the field, and you can’t expect the Colts to score a lot of points,” says Rood.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: Jacksonville -2.5, Current: -1

Another QB switch in the AFC South has bettors fading the Jaguars in Week 1. Jacksonville fell from a near field-goal favorite to -1 when David Garrard was cut and backup Josh McCown was announced as the starter against the Titans. The total has also come down, falling from 41 to 37 points.

“This is the most least-bet game on the board,” says Rood.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns - Open: Cleveland -3, Current: -6.5

The battle for Ohio has a lot of people wondering if the Browns are good enough to be favored by 6.5 points – or if the Bengals can really be that bad. Rood is confident in the Browns, and hasn’t had a problem adding points to their spread in Week 1.

“We’ve had decent two way action since going to 6.5,” he says. “It was almost all Browns money to begin with, but I don’t think (the spread) will get to a touchdown. I expect some buyback on the Bengals before game time Sunday.”

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Arizona -3, Current: -6.5

This opening number was set before Arizona landed QB Kevin Kolb, but most oddsmakers were smart enough to know the former Eagles backup was headed to the desert. Since Kolb’s arrival, bettors have laid the Cardinals hand over fist, with about 70 percent of the action on Arizona, forcing the significant line move.

Rood says books will be watching this game closely. A ton of parlay action is tied to the Cardinals at -3, -5 and -6.5, fading Carolina and rookie QB Cam Newton.

“I hope Cam's got his shoes tied on tight,” says Rood, giving credit the Arizona defense.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets - Open: New York -4, Current: -6

The first Sunday Night Football tilt of the season has had its line move significantly since post. Rood says it’s all Jets money so far, moving the line from -4 to -4.5, then jumping right to -5.5. He could even see this spread closing at a touchdown, despite an expected flood of public money on the Cowboys before kickoff.

“The sharps are squarely on the team which has performed the most consistent,” says Rood, referring to New York’s three straight trips to the AFC title game. “This one could be ugly if all the favorites come in during the afternoon games.”

When asked if Sunday’s emotion Sept. 11 tribute at MetLife Stadium will have an impact on the game, Rood said, “Once they blow the whistle, it’s football.”

[Mr. IWS]

Sunday’s betting tips: Foster a game-time decision

NFL line moves

Who’s hot

NFL: The Lions were 5-0 ATS in their last five overall last season and 4-0 ATS in their last four against the NFC.

NFL: The over was 8-2 in the Jaguars’ last 10 overall last season.

NFL: The Falcons were 4-0 ATS in their last four road games last season and 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall.

MLB: The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 overall and the under is 5-0 in their last five overall.

MLB: The Tigers are 4-0 in their last four home games and the over is 7-1 in their last eight overall.

WNBA: Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven home games and the over is 5-1 in its last six overall.

Who’s not

NFL: The Browns were 0-4 ATS in their last four overall, last four home games, and last four against the AFC last season.

MLB: The Padres are 3-13 in their last 16 overall.

MLB: The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six overall and 1-4 in their last five road games.

WNBA: Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

Key stat

0 – Number of times the Washington Redskins sacked Eli Manning in two games last season. Not surprisingly, the Giants won both contests. Not even Redskins’ defensive end Brian Orakpo could get to the quarterback. Orakpo has 19.5 sacks in two seasons, seventh most of anyone in the NFL in his first two years in the league since 2000.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Texans' running back Arian Foster continues to be the big injury story heading into Sunday of Week 1. Foster is officially listed as questionable and he confirmed on Friday that he is a game-time decision for Sunday's home date with Indianapolis. The former University of Tennessee star assured that he did not have pain "or any kind of hindrance" while running on Friday. According to the Houston Chronicle, though, Foster also said, "The coaches and I both know...if you rush back a hamstring it's going to bite you again, and it's going to keep biting you." Derrick Ward will get the start with Ben Tate coming off the bench if Foster cannot go.

Biggest game on the slate

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 36)

Notable quotable

“I'm supportive of Kerry Collins. I was never against Kerry Collins coming here. I think you guys or one guy, I'm not going to say who it is, kind of turned it around on me. Kerry's our guy, and we're going to rally behind him and play football.” – Indianapolis Colts’ wide receiver Reggie Wayne, who had previously expressed doubts when his team signed Collins in the wake of Peyton Manning’s neck problem. Collins will get the start at Houston on Sunday afternoon.

Tips and notes

The Phillies were once again without Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins in Saturday’s road game against Milwaukee. Utley recently sustained a concussion and Rollins is dealing with a sore groin. Neither one is expected to take the field on Sunday and Utley could be out until the middle of next week. The second baseman reportedly has no post-concussion symptoms, but Philadelphia is prepared to play it safe.

What's new? The Broncos do not have a running back rotation that is set in stone. Both Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee will be featured during Monday night's home game against Oakland. "We're going to roll them," offensive coordinator Mike McCoy told the Denver Post. "They're going to play, and if one of them is tired, the other one is going in. Then we'll just keep them going. Both of them are going to play plenty of snaps, but we're not going to worry about counting snaps with them." Sounds like Denver is once again going with whoever has the hot hand.

[Mr. IWS]

Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers (7-13, 3.17 ERA)

The Tigers’ righty is 3-0 with a 0.91 ERA in his last four trips to the bump, most recently giving up only one run on four hits in eight innings of work versus the Indians. Fister recorded 13 strikeouts in a 4-2 win and has 31 Ks over his last four outings.

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (15-6, 2.93 ERA)

Lester is 4-0 in his last five starts, allowing one run or fewer in each of those outings. In his most recent appearance, the BoSox’s southpaw gave up only three hits over seven innings in a 14-0 blowout against Toronto. He’s 10-4 with a career 3.65 ERA versus Tampa Bay.

Slumping

Wade LeBlanc, San Diego Padres (2-5, 5.33 ERA)

LeBlanc is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts for the Padres. The left-hander gave up four runs on eight hits in just five innings of work during a 6-4 loss to San Francisco his last time on the mound. He’s 1-3 with an ERA just under 6.00 on the road and posts similar career numbers versus Arizona, going 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA against the Diamondbacks.

Esmil Rogers, Colorado Rockies (6-5, 6.26 ERA)

Rogers has lost three straight outings and is 0-4 in his last five starts. The Rockies’ righty was beat up bad in his most recent appearance, getting knocked around for six earned runs on eight hits – including two home runs – in only 5 1-3 innings.

[Mr. IWS]

Hot lines: Sunday's best MLB bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-123, 6.5)

The Giants got edged by Los Angeles on Friday, but they have still won six of eight in the head-to-head series this season as of Saturday evening. When anyone other Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers, San Francisco is 6-0.

San Fran should have a good chance of improving on that mark with Madison Bumgarner on tap for a Sunday start. The southpaw owns a modest 10-12 record but he boasts a solid 3.37 ERA.

"He's so mature beyond his years," manager Bruce Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle after Bumgarner's latest outing. "Going back to last year, pitching in the World Series, he's really grown up as a pitcher. He's not getting rattled anymore, or unraveled, when things go bad."

To say things have not gone bad of late would be an understatement. Bumgarner has turned in quality starts in six of his last seven appearances, including three in a row. In his last three has compiled 24 2-3 innings of work while allowing only 14 hits and three runs to go along with 26 strikeouts.

Pick: Giants

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (-123, 8.5)

Zach Stewart had underwhelmed since going over to Chicago from Toronto at the trade deadline, but that all changed on Monday. Stewart was perfect through seven innings at Minnesota and finished with a one-hitter, striking out nine in a 4-0 shutout.

"He didn't really have stuff that was overpowering," said Danny Valencia, the only Minnesota hitter to find any luck against Stewart. "He was just locating really well. He had all his pitches going, and he was throwing everything for a strike."

Speaking of throwing strikes, Cleveland starter Ubaldo Jiminez is finally starting to find the zone. Jiminez was inconsistent at best over his first four outings as an Indian this summer but he has delivered three straight quality starts. However, in a start at Chicago on August 16, he lasted just 4 2-3 innings and allowed five runs on eight hits.

The White Sox, meanwhile, have showed signs of emerging from a slumping by winning four of their last six games as of Saturday evening. Cleveland, on the other hand, has dropped four of five.

Pick: White Sox

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

715- 527 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sun up REDSKINS + 3

[Mr. IWS]

ALLEN EASTMAN

NFL PICKS
$2000 ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5
$2000 CINCINNATI BENGALS-CLEVELAND BROWNS Under 35.5
$700 PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5