9-15-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Thursday, September 15, 2011
Southeastern Conference
Lsu 33, MISSISSIPPI STATE 28

[Mr. IWS]

Lines2Win

LSU -3.5 (3 Units) - The line finally dropped below -4. The line has come down from -5, as the oddsmakers try to take us off LSU. 88% of the money is on LSU right now. Miss St has a banged up O-line which does not bode well against a great LSU defense. Stay off the -4, we should win this one.

[Mr. IWS]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Thursday, September 15

While Mississippi State was losing 41-34 at Auburn on last play of the game last week, only five days ago, LSU had easy 49-3 win over I-AA foe. Bulldogs lost last 11 games to LSU, covering one of last five played here (lost 30-26 in 2009, after losing previous four series games here by combined 165-13 margin). LSU is 5-7-1 as road favorite since '06; they have 14 starters back from LY, but are using backup QB. Miss State is 6-4 as home dog since '08; they've got 16 starters back from LY.

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

LSU at Mississippi State

The Bulldogs look to take advantage of an LSU team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road favorite. Mississippi State is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (9/14)

Game 101-102: LSU at Mississippi State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LSU 102.986; Mississippi State 102.978 Dunkel Line: Even; 53 Vegas Line: LSU by 3 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+3 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

The Gold Sheet

*Lsu 26 - MISSISSIPPI ST. 17—MSU valiantly failed to notch breakthrough win in the murderous SEC West in draining 41-34 loss at Auburn. Doubt Bulldogs snap 11-game series losing streak vs. West power LSU, which was able to rest its starters in 2nd H of 49-3 rout vs. Northwestern State. MSU’s spread offense (only 268 yds. vs. Bengals LY) will muster few big plays (again) vs. fast, athletic LSU defense, which stymied Oregon’s state-of-the-art spread in 40-27 season-opening victory. Meanwhile, Tigers’ evolved 5th-year sr. QB Jarrett Lee works play-action with deep, punishing RB corps gashing Bulldog front 7 that permitted 235 YR in 36 totes (6.5 ypc!) vs. Auburn. “The Hat” has captured 18 straight in month of September, while Dan Mullen only 2-9 SU vs. West (both wins vs. Ole Miss). CABLE TV—ESPN

[Mr. IWS]

LSU at Mississippi State: What Bettors Need To Know

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3.5, 49)

THE STORY:No. 25 Mississippi State has had increased success in coach Dan Mullen’s tenure, but has not been able to ascend in the brutal Southeastern Conference West Division. After last week's disheartening loss at Auburn, the Bulldogs have yet to beat anyone other than Ole Miss in their division under Mullen.

No. 3 LSU hopes to keep that streak alive and solidify its reputation as a top-tier national title contender. But the Tigers will have to do it in what will be a raucous, cowbell-infused atmosphere in Starkville, Miss. LSU had five interceptions and kicked five field goals to beat the Bulldogs 29-7 last season in Baton Rouge. LSU has won 11 straight against Mississippi State by an average score of 39-13.

TV: ESPN

LINE MOVES: This spread opened with MSU as field-goal underdogs Thursday. That number has since been bet up to as high as 4.5 at some books. The total opened as high as 49 points and has dropped to 48.5.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (1-1, 0-1 SEC): Two starting offensive linemen, left tackle James Carmon and Quentin Saulsberry, went down in the Auburn game. Carmon (leg) is questionable for Thursday; Saulsberry (knee) is probable. The line is a major concern against an LSU run defense that is tops in the SEC. If the Bulldogs can’t get star running back Vick Ballard going on the ground, quarterback Chris Relf will be forced to attack through the air. He was responsible for two of last year’s five picks against LSU.

ABOUT LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC): QB Jarrett Lee has thrown only 32 times this season, mostly because the Tigers have mauled their opponents on the ground, averaging 175 yards. Lee became the starter when senior Jordan Jefferson was suspended indefinitely after being charged in a bar brawl a week before the season opener. Lee stepped in and led the Tigers to an impressive win over Oregon. The senior was an ultra-efficient 9-of-10 for 133 yards and a touchdown in Saturday’s 49-3 win over Northwestern State.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU has enjoyed a 9-1 advantage in turnovers in its last two games against Mississippi State.

2. Russell Shepard, LSU's top receiver, will miss the third and final game of his three-game suspension for violating NCAA rules.

3. Mississippi State is 15-5 in home openers since 1991, including three straight wins. Its last loss in a home opener, however, came against LSU 45-0 in 2007.

TRENDS:

- Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Mississippi State.
- Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
- Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
- Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

PREDICTION: LSU 23, Mississippi State 20 - The Bulldogs will put up a fight, but pulling off the upset with a banged-up offensive line that had only four days to rest is too much to ask.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best CFB Bets

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3.5, 49)

The LSU Tigers open their 2011 SEC schedule this upcoming Thursday night in a crucial West Division showdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium. The kick-off is slated for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

LSU has gotten off to an impressive start by outscoring its opponents 89-30 in its first two games. It followed up a 40-27 victory over then-No.3 Oregon as a three-point underdog in its season opener with a 49-3 romp over Northwestern State as a 49-point home favorite. The total went ‘over’ the 54-point line against the Ducks, but stayed under the 56.5-point line against the Demons.

The Tigers have done a great job running the ball so far with Michael Ford leading the way with 168 yards on 27 carries. All together, seven different players have run the ball so far for LSU.

Mississippi State will look to bounce back from a tough 41-34 loss to Auburn last Saturday as a 5.5-point road favorite in its first conference game of the season. The total went ‘over’ the 57-point line. This followed a 59-14 romp over Memphis as a 30-point road favorite in its season opener. The total went ‘over’ in this game as well with the closing line set at 50.5. The Bulldogs are now 25th in the latest AP poll after climbing to 16th last week.

Quarterback Chris Relf had a chance to send the game against Auburn into overtime, but was stopped just short of the goal line on the final play of the game. To go along with his 157 yards rushing, he has completed 33-of-54 attempts for 397 yards and three touchdowns. Relf will need to come up big with both his arm and his legs this Saturday if the Bulldogs are going to have any chance to pull off the upset.

LSU is 2-3 against the spread in its last five games and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last six games. Mississippi State is 3-1 ATS in its last four games and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.

Head-to-head, the Tigers have won the last 10 games straight-up dating back to 2001, but the Bulldogs hold a slight 3-2 edge ATS in the last five meetings. Two seasons ago, these two teams met at Davis Wade Stadium. LSU came away with a 30-26 victory but came nowhere near covering as a 12-point road favorite. The Bulldogs come into this game with one of their most talented teams in years, but it still will not be enough to go toe-to-toe with LSU for four quarters to cover the spread in this game.

PICK: LSU -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Boston Red Sox Begin Series With Rays
By: Bruce Marshall


Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (N/A)

A recent surge by the Tampa Bay Rays, combined with a slump by the Boston Red Sox, has injected some life into what seemed to be a mundane American League wild card race.

After last weekend’s sweep of the BoSox Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay brings lots of confidence into this weekend’s four-game set at Fenway Park, which begins Thursday night. First pitch is scheduled at 7:10 p.m. (ET).

The early send-out pricing on the matchup sees Tampa Bay and Jeremy Hellickson at -120 over the Red Sox and Notre Dame alum Kyle Weiland, priced at even money. The total started at 9 ½.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Rays, who had pulled to within four games of the Red Sox entering Wednesday action, need to win at least three of the four clashes this weekend in Beantown to stay in the wild card picture. Prior to Wednesday’s matchup at Baltimore, Tampa Bay had won five of six and eight of 10, including that sweep of the BoSox in St. Pete last weekend when bludgeoning Terry Francona’s pitching staff by scoring 22 runs in the three wins.

Francona gambles in Thursday’s series opener by starting the little-used Kyle Weiland, who was ineffective last Saturday vs. the Rays when allowing three runs, six hits and three walks in just four innings of work in an eventual 6-5 defeat. The Red Sox offense had also been slumping prior to erupting for 18 runs in Tuesday’s win over the visiting Blue Jays, and had scored two runs or fewer on four different occasions in September prior to Wednesday’s game vs. Toronto.

Meanwhile, Francona’s opposite number Joe Maddon figures to have more confidence in Hellickson, who was more effective than Weiland in that Saturday matchup. The rookie allowed only five hits over his six innings of work in the win. Hellickson’s recent efforts offer plenty of reason for encouragement, including an ERA of 2.00 over his last five starts.

It’s worth noting that Hellickson has lost twice in those last five starts, but it was hardly his fault, with the Rays blanked on both of those occasions vs. the playoff-bound Rangers and Tigers.

Hellickson’s stat line for this season against Boston suggests he might be up to the challenge at Fenway. He’s allowed only 14 hits over 18 1/3 innings of work in three previous starts vs. the Red Sox, with the Rays winning two of those matchups, including a 16-5 rout back on April 11.

Indeed, in Hellickson’s 14 starts since June 10, he’s allowed over three runs just once. Over the entire season, Hellickson’s stats include impressive ERA (2.96), WHIP (1.14) and OBA (.214) numbers.

Also worth considering is Tampa Bay’s prowess on the road, where it has offered better value than at The Trop this season. The Rays have provided good return as a visitor this campaign, with a 40-32 mark and an impressive 9.96 units. Meanwhile, the BoSox, often overpriced, have provided far less value at Fenway where they’re -4.88 units in 2011.

There is a good chance of showers during the day but they should taper off towards game time. It will be a little on the cool side in Boston with temps dropping into the 50s and a 12-15 mph WNW wind (3B out towards Pesky's Pole).

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs (7-4, 4.73 ERA)

Wells is 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA since Aug. 1 and has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts. The veteran gave up just two runs over seven innings in his last outing against the New York Mets, but took a no-decision in a 5-4 Cubs victory. That was the sixth straight time the Cubs won a Wells start.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (16-7, 2.44 ERA)

Lee’s scoreless streak ended at 30 2/3 innings last weekend during a 3-2 win over Milwaukee, but he’s still in the middle of the NL Cy Young race. He gave up just one run over seven innings in that start and has struck out at least six batters in each of his last eight trips to the hill while serving up just two homers over that stretch.

SLUMPING

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians (6-14, 5.18 ERA)

Carmona hasn’t picked up a win since mid-August and is working on a fat 2.13 WHIP and 9.24 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. After getting drilled for seven runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work against Detroit earlier this month, the good news is that he rebounded to hold the White Sox to three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 7-3 loss in his last start.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox (11-8, 3.58 ERA)

Buehrle allowed four runs in a start just once from the end of April until the calendar turned to September, but now it seems like the wheels have fallen off. He has given up seven runs in each of his two outings this month which spanned just nine innings. The Indian roughed him up in an 8-4 win over the BoSox that saw them take Buehrle deep twice.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-320, 7.5)

If you were hoping you might get a bit of a discount on a Phillies bet Thursday after they clinched a playoff berth a day before, tough luck.

After the Phils became the fastest team to clinch a playoff spot in MLB history (146 games) oddsmakers opened with Philadelphia set around -320 with Cliff Lee sharing the mound with Florida’s Alex Sanabia and they probably have it right.

The Phillies aren’t the kind of team to let up after clinching – that was a long time coming and they’ve been here before.

Plus, even though they’re headed to the postseason for sure, they still have a division to win and do happen to have another NL Cy Young award contender taking the ball.

All that said, you know how we do around here and there’s no way we’ll jump at -320. Instead, give us the under.

PICK: Under


San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (-125, 9)

You think that after all Ryan Vogelsong has been through and everything he’s done for the Giants this season, that they’d scratch together a few runs for the guy.

Vogelsong, who has thrown more innings for the team than anybody has since 2003, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and still the team has won just one of those outings. Oh, and that was back in mid-August.

Considering Vogelsong’s long road back to the bigs, he isn’t taking anything for granted.

"I definitely feed off of them," he told reporters of his fellow starters. "It's not like I want to match them or be better than them; I just don't want to be the weak link. I don't want to be the guy who's not producing. That mentality is what drives me between starts to work hard."

If you haven’t noticed, we like the cut of his jib.

PICK: Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Tips: Tension In Brewers Clubhouse?

Who’s Hot

MLB: The over is 7-3-1 in Washington’s last 11 games.

MLB: The Detroit Tigers have won 12 straight games.

NCAAF: LSU has covered in 11 of its last 14 meetings with Mississippi State, although the Bulldogs have covered in two of the last three.

WNBA: Seattle has covered in six of its last seven games against Phoenix.

Who’s Not

MLB: Florida is 8-23 in its last 31 games as an underdog.

MLB: Kansas City is 8-21 in Jeff Francis’ last 29 starts.

NCAAF: The under is 1-7 in the last eight meetings between LSU and Mississippi State.

WNBA: New York is 9-19 in its last 28 meetings with Indiana.

Key Stat

3 – During the Detroit Tigers’ 12-game winning streak, the club has failed to score at least five runs only three times. With two outs in the ninth inning, they hit two homers and tied the Chicago White Sox 5-5 before winning the game 6-5 in extra innings. It’s the longest win streak the club has had in 43 years.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox – As the Sox continue to slide down the stretch, the last thing they need is Gonzalez to hit the shelf. He pulled himself out of Wednesday’s loss to the Blue Jays with calf tightness and is considered day-to-day. The first baseman is hitting .340 with 26 homers and 110 RBIs.

Game Of The Day

LSU at Mississippi State (+3.5, 50)

Notable Quotable

"I let myself down and I let my players down, I did. You know why I say that? Because I had a lot of confidence, and I expect a lot better things from myself than I (got). A lot of things. I expected my ballclub to play better, and it hurts." – White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen in another rant about his future with the club. Chicago is set around -120 Thursday in Kansas City.

Tips And Notes

After being traded from the New York Mets in mid-July, Francisco Rodriguez has served as Milwaukee’s setup man for John Axford and it sounds like he’s had about enough of it. "I’m not happy. That’s the bottom line for me,” Rodriguez told CBSSports.com. “They told me one thing; they haven’t done it, and I stand by what I said." Rodriguez has posted a 3-0 mark with a 2.31 ERA in 25 appearances with National League Central-leading Milwaukee.

Chicago Bears middle linebacker Brian Urlacher left the team after his mother passed away. It is unclear how long Urlacher will remain away from the team and whether he will play in Sunday's game against New Orleans. “My first priority right now is to be with my family as we mourn her loss and make the arrangements to lay her to rest," Urlacher said in a statement. "This is a very difficult and emotional time for us and I sincerely ask that you respect our privacy. Thank you.” Urlacher had a huge game in Chicago's season-opening win over Atlanta. He returned a punt for a fumble, intercepted a pass and recorded 10 tackles.

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday will be shut down for four to five games with inflammation of the middle finger on his right hand. Halladay will miss this weekend's key series against the Philadelphia Phillies and will not return to the lineup until Tuesday at the earliest. The Cardinals and Braves both won Wednesday, leaving St. Louis 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta in the race for the wild card with just 13 games remaining. Holliday is batting .298 with 22 homers and 74 RBIs.

Phoenix and Seattle open the WNBA Western Conference best-of-three semifinal Thursday with the hometown Storm set as 5.5-point favorites. As mentioned earlier, the Storm have dominated against the number against Phoenix, but these teams know each other well. ''Most of these games come down to the last two or three minutes,'' WNBA leading scorer Diana Taurasi said after the Mercury lost to Seattle last week, losing homecourt advantage for the first round. ''We have to find a way to get stops and good offensive possessions.''

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo had the good splitter working with the Jays and 'Stros yesterday afternoon, but the D'backs pushed him back into negative numbers for the day last night as the dirty digits ballooned to 2,565 wock enfusses.

Tonight, it's bombs away with the Tribe and Mar lins -- 20 units on the former; 40 on the latter.

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Miss St +3-

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Dodgers -165