9-22-11

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo, who knocked 760 big ones off the NRN (nasty red number) with Tuesday night's shocking 3-for-3 performance with the Orioles, Nats and Pi rates, gave a bit back yesterday with the 'Stros, whose loss in Cincy increased the debt to 2,535 bed rosians.

Tonight, he expects Peacock to show his true col ors in his duel with Roy Harvey Oswalt -- 20 units on the Nats. Also, Cincy looks like a cinch against the N.C. State -- 20 on the Bearcats.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Giants "even"

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

NC State + Cincy OVER 60

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Tigers -155 over Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Tigers -155 over Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

CFB Cincinnati Univ
Phillies(RL)

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Thursday

Play Philadelphia (-190) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

Roy Oswalt has won 9 of the last 13 games when pitching in the month of September and he has also won 6 of the last 7 home games as a favorite of -175 to -200. Roy Oswalt has an ERA of 3.00 over the last three starts and he is 7-4 vs. Washington over his career with an ERA of 2.90.

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Play Texas (-145) over Oakland (Bonus)

Play St. Louis (-180) over New York Mets (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Over 9 runs bet. Colorado and Houston

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Thursday, September 22

Hot pitchers
-- Oswalt is 1-0, 1.29 in his last couple home starts. Peacock threw five shutout innings in his first '11 start, against the Mets.
-- Bumgarner is 5-0, 1.29 in his last five starts.

-- Beaven is 2-0, 1.88 in his last two starts.
-- Alvarez is 1-0, 2.67 in his last four starts.
-- Gomez is 4-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Britton is 4-1, 3.09 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Westbrook is 3-4, 4.66 in his last eight starts. Capuano is 1-1, 5.14 in his last four starts.
-- White is 2-2, 8.89 in five starts this season. Sosa is 0-3, 5.52 in his last three outings.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 5.56 in his last four starts.

-- Swarzak is 0-4, 7.96 in his last five starts.
-- Cahill is 2-4, 5.98 in his last seven starts. Lewis has a 7.94 RA in his last five starts.
-- Santana is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- Humber is 1-4, 5.79 in his last nine starts.
-- Turner allowed six runs in 4.1 IP in his first '11 start.
-- Niemann is 2-3, 6.67 in his last five starts. Colon is 0-1, 5.30 in his last three home starts.

Totals
-- Four of Westbrook's last five starts went over the total.
-- Under is 12-5-2 in Oswalt's last nineteen starts.
-- Four of White's five starts went over the total.
-- Last six Kuroda starts went over the total.

-- All four Swarzak starts at Target Field stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-2 in Cahill's last eleven starts.
-- Under is 9-3 in Santana's last 12 starts.
-- Four of last five Gomez starts went over the total.
-- Last six Britton starts stayed under the total.
-- Colon's last five home starts went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Giants won nine of their last ten games. Dodgers won five of their last seven games.

-- Toronto is 9-5 in its last fourteen home games.
-- Bronx won five of its last six games.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.
-- Tigers won 15 of their last 18 games. Orioles won seven of their last nine games.
-- Mariners won four of their last five road games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Rockies lost seven of their last eight games. Houston lost five of its last seven games.

-- Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
-- White Sox lost eight of their last eleven games. Cleveland lost three of its last four games.
-- Minnesota lost its last eleven games, giving up 63 runs.
-- Oakland is 5-10 in its last 15 games.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Silver Key Pick for Thursday NCAA Football

Over 59.5 Total Points, North Carolina State at CINCINNATI

[Mr. IWS]

Trusted Picks 9/22

Cincinnati -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Thursday
15 Dime Play on Cincinnati -7 in revenge as the home favorite tonight against N.C. State.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +173 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals are hot as hell and suddenly they’re just a game back of the Braves and they have a much more favorable schedule than Atlanta. Having said that, the Mets would love to make life miserable for the Redbirds and Jake Westbrook as a –185 favorite over Chris Capuano is preposterous. Westbrook is 4-5 at home with a 5.59 ERA. He’s allowed 198 hits in 175 IP with 68 walks and just 98 k’s. In his last start he walked five and struck out one. Westbrook is an extreme groundball pitcher and that keeps him employed. Other than that, his skills are awful and his chances of losing are greater than his chances of winning. The Cardinals are three games under .500 at home versus southpaws and will face one here in Chris Capuano. Over his last five starts covering 30 frames, Capuano has walked six and whiffed 32. He’s posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over that same span. He’s a way better option taking back a tag like this than Westbrook is laying one. Price is too good to pass up on. Play: N.Y. Mets +173 (Risking 2 units).


San Francisco –103 over LOS ANGELES

It took 148 games for the Giants bats to wake up. They scored another eight runs last night and have now scored six or more in seven of their past 10 games. Over that stretch, the only three pitchers that held San Fran to three runs or less were Mat Latos, Cory Luebke and Clayton Kershaw. After exiting his Sept 11 start against these same Giants in the fifth inning, Hiroki Kuroda acknowledged that he is troubled by neck pain and soreness. That loss was Kuroda's second disaster in three outings. He’s pitched one game since and it was a decent one but it was at home against the anemic Pirates. Fact is, he’s 36 years old and logged a lot of inning this season and he’s not even 100%. Additionally, he’s the second best pitcher on the hill in this one and it’s not close. Madison Bumgarner has been one of the game's most dominant starters since the start of June. Four things we like in young starting pitcher's: - Elite control and command- emerging strikeout rate and a groundball bias profile. Bumgarner not only possesses all four, he excels in them all. The guy is the straight goods with a 1.04 ERA over his past five starts and his outstanding pitching is unlikely to be broken up by the Dodgers in a pitchers park. Play: San Francisco –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

MLB PREDICTIONS

2* MLB* Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins - MARINERS TO WIN (-103) **EARLY GAME - 1:00 PM EST START**
(Note: I'm risking 2.06 units to win 2 units)
The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series by a score of 5-4, and look to sweep the Twins who have lost 11 in a row and 16 of their last 17 games. Things are getting pretty embarrassing for the Twins, who were thought to be at least in a playoff race come September. Minnesota will send Anthony Swarzak to the mound, who is 2-5 this season as a starter with a 4.91 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average. In his last outing Swarzak went juts 1.2 innings against the Indians allowing 7 hits and 7 earned runs. He has allowed 17 earned runs over his last 4 starts. Blake Beaven will be on the mound for the Mariners, and is 5-5 on the year with a 3.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .276 opponents batting average. This play is a mostly a play against the Twins who can't seem to win, who have a pitcher that is struggling on the mound. The Twins are just 12-41 in their last 53 games overall, and 4-22 in their last 26 home games. The Twins are also winless in Swarzak's last 5 starts, and 1-9 in his last 10 home starts. Take note that the Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs a team with a home winning % off less than .400. The Mariners are 5-2 on the season against the Twins, and I look for them to finish off the sweep, as nothing seems to be going right for Minnesota. At such short odds anyone is worth a look against the Twins, and with the pitching match up we see this afternoon I'm backing the Mariners with confidence. Risking 2.06 units to pick up 2 units this afternoon.

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 8.5 A's/Rangers

50* Indians -125