9-25-11

[timbob]

ROBERT FERRRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
****** Take #408 Minnesota (+3.5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month.

This right here is the quintessential Fade The Public pick. Right now no one in the NFL is getting more love than the Detroit Lions. And hey, I admit, this team has played damn well going back to the end of last year. However, I don't think that this squad should be this heavy of a road favorite against a better-than-they-seem Vikings team. I think that Minnesota is going to win this game outright and I think that we have found a side that is reserved for the sharpest of players (with the strongest of stomachs).

I went back and watched the tape of the Detroit-Kansas City game from last week and I was stunned. I don't ever remember a time in my handicapping career where I was watching a 48-3 game and thinking, "You know, the team that lost really could have won this game." But that is the truth. With just over five minutes left in the third quarter of that game the Lions and Chiefs had the EXACT SAME yardage. But Detroit was up 20-3 and would be up 27-3 by the end of the quarter before the Chiefs just started packing it in. Why the score discrepancy if each team had moved the ball equally? Turnovers. Kansas City had four turnovers. But they weren't really caused by Detroit. On the first, the KC defender intercepted a potential pick-six - on the first possession of the game, mind you - and then promptly dropped the ball, turning it right back over to Detroit. The next two turnovers were interceptions. But both of those bounced right off receivers hands and right into Detroit hands. They were both flukes. The fourth was a roughing the kicker penalty that kept a Detroit drive alive (the same as a turnover). Further, the Chiefs aided a Detroit touchdown drive with back-to-back 15-yard penalties. So KC did absolutely everything that they could to give that one to Detroit.

However, when KC wasn't kicking itself in the balls, they were playing alright. The Chiefs ran the ball at will and weren't really forced into anything by the Detroit defense. I think that Minnesota will be able to run the ball just as effectively.

Minnesota has had just the opposite happen in the first two weeks. I felt like for all but two quarters they have outplayed both San Diego and Tampa Bay. And in both games they have had leads in the fourth quarter. And, honestly, they led both games despite getting next to nothing out of quarterback Donovan McNabb, who is missing a ton of throws. I think that McNabb will be sharper this week. I think that the Minnesota front four is going to get way more pressure on Detroit than either Kansas City (and Tamba Hali got a ton last week) or Tampa Bay did in the first two weeks. I think that the Vikings are going to play like their season is on the line (it is; they can't fall 0-3) and I think that the savvy and experience of Donovan McNabb is going to come out this week against inexperienced Matt Stafford.They should be able to control the ball and the clock and I think that this very veteran, experienced Vikings team is going to relish playing in the underdog role. The Lions may be improving, but they haven't done enough to scare the NFC North rivals that have been pounding them for two decades.

***.5 Take #400 New Orleans (-4) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
I don't think there is any doubt that the Saints are the better team and they should be revved up to pound the Texans. With the exception of the first quarter of the opener, the Saints have outplayed Green Bay and Chicago the last two weeks. In the meantime, Houston has been getting extended training camp, playing against hapless Indianapolis and then catching Miami on a short week in a hangover spot. Make no mistake about it: Miami should have won last week against the Texans. They played horrendously in the first quarter but then dominated the action. And were it not for two missed chippy field goals and a late fumble at midfield (in the fourth quarter of a 16-13 game, at a time when the Fins had all the momentum) then I think Houston would have lost last week. The Texans defense has been playing over its head and has benefited from facing a pair of awful quarterbacks. But this week Drew Brees and the boys should be ready to pick up where they left off against Chicago and Green Bay and should roll in this spot.

**.5 Take #406 Tennessee (-6.5) over Denver (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Lower this to a 2-Unit Play.

I loved this game when I first saw the line. However, the fact that Denver is 0-2 ATS and Tennessee is 1-0-1 ATS gave me some pause. But I am firmly on record as saying that Tennessee is my sleeper team in the AFC and that I think they are going to be a moneymaker throughout the year. I thought that this line was a red flag. The books were virtually begging people to take the points and roll with Denver (mainly because everyone is still operating under the foolish notion that the Titans aren't any good). But Tennessee put it on a good Baltimore team last week. And they should be able to pick up where they left off this week against a very banged-up Denver team. The Broncos played without five starters and had two more injured last week. They are getting some guys back, but none of them are 100 percent and this team isn't in flow. They are traveling east and making their first road start of the game. And I'm not sure that they are ready for this spot against a team on the rise. Matt Hasselbeck is on the verge of clicking with his guys in a big way, and Chris Johnson is ready to break out after facing two very physical fronts. I think this week things could start coming together and I believe this line is this big for a reason.

**.5. Take #421 Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Lower this to a 2-Unit Play.

I don't think there is any doubt who the better team is in this spot. The Packers have owned the Bears in recent years, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and 10-3 in their last 13 games int eh Windy City. The Packers may have gotten off to a slow start against Carolina last week because they were looking forward to this game. I don't think there is any doubt that they will be focused and sharp in this one. Chicago's Cover-2 defense won't be able to hold back the Packers in this game. The Cover-2 is effective against inaccurate quarterbacks and against ultra-athletic, physical players in the red zone. Green Bay has exactly that. On the flip side, Chicago's offensive line is a disaster and their game plan is a bit of a joke. The Packers and Dom Capers should be able to force Jay Cutler into some compromising positions and if Chicago loses the turnover battle (which I predict they will) then they don't stand a chance to win. Look, either the Bears are going to play above themselves and win this game outright or the Packers are going to roll. I am willing to throw down on the defending champions because their talent, scheme, and momentum right now are much better than the home team's.

**.5 Take #411 Kansas City (+14.5) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Lower this play to a 2-Unit Play.

This play is really a tie-in with what I put in my Minnesota writeup. The Chiefs did not play nearly as poorly as the final score indicated last week. Now they are back on the road facing a team that is off its own double-digit loss. That fits them perfectly into a system that is 23-13-1 over the last 21 years: play on any double-digit underdog on the road after a loss when playing an opponent after a double-digit loss. The entire public will be jumping on the Chargers here in anticipation of a blowout. It's not poor reasoning. But the reality is that the Chargers, according to my models, have nearly as much of a chance of losing this game outright (13 percent) as they do winning by 17 or more points (19 percent). That leaves us in the middle, and I can see the Chiefs hanging around. Kansas City is 10-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog and the Chargers are just 2-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite. These are divisional foes and there is plenty of venom here. I think the Chiefs put up a fight and hang within this number.

*.5 Take #418 Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Bump this up to a 2-Unit Play.

We had the Eagles last week as a big public fade. The Falcons were getting worked over, getting lit up by 10 at home in a game that was supposed to represent some emotional Super Bowl for Atlanta. Then Mike Vick got injured and the Falcons took advantage of some turnovers and good luck to get a four-point win. Well, now the Falcons are back on the road and I think that Tampa Bay is going to be focused and ready to go. Just like with our move with Green Bay, I think that Tampa Bay might have been looking ahead to this game and that is why they got off to a slow start. But just like the Packers, Tampa Bay was good enough - and good enough at the QB spot - to engineer a comeback. Atlanta has not impressed me at all and I think that they might be one of the more overrated teams in the league right now. Tampa Bay is young and cocky and I think that they are more focused and more confident at the moment. Atlanta is in a clear letdown spot and I think that this will be an ambush. This game will be tight. But the number is set up so that Tampa just has to win - by a field goal or whatever - in order to cash for us.

* Take #413 N.Y. Jets (-3.5) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)



*** TEASER: Take #397 New England (-1.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m.) AND Take #423 Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Indianapolis (8:20 p.m.)

** TEASER: Take #403 Miami (+9.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m.) AND Take #419 Arizona (+4) over Seattle (4 p.m.)


This Week's Totals
*** Take 'Under' 40.5 San Francisco at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

* Take 'Under' 41.0 Miami at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

*-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.0 N.Y. Jets at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

* Take 'Over' 42.0 Denver at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)


** Take #403 Miami (+3) over Cleveland (1 p.m.). I recommend buying up to the 3.0 on this game.

[timbob]

Teddy Covers

Big Ticket Denver and Tennessee Over 42.5
3*Seattle Seahawks +3.5
3*Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5

[timbob]

Evan Roberts

(5-1 TY)
Mia
Blt
Atl

[timbob]

Indian cowboy

4 unit over ne/buff
7 unit goy tbay-1.5

[timbob]

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 9-4 +13.80%

3% BUFFALO +7
3% MINNESOTA +3.5
3% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
3% KANSAS CITY +14.5
3% ATLANTA +2.5
3% GREEN BAY -3.5

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 23.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.5
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.6

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

CINCINNATI –2.5 San Francisco 40

SF lost in OT to Dallas at home last week 27-24. It was a game they led most of the way. They held Dallas to just 2.0ypr but only gained 3.1ypr themselves. They also only threw for 4.4yps while allowing the Cowboys to average 9.7yps. Dallas had a couple of long pass plays to raise those numbers but even without the two long pass plays, they still averaged over 7.0yps. Overall, Dallas gained 7.2yppl and SF gained just 3.8yppl. SF scored 10 points on drives of 29 and 9 yards.

Cincinnati lost a tough road game at Denver last week 24-22. Both teams rushed for 3.6ypr. Cincinnati threw for 7.2yps while allowing Denver to throw for 6.9yps. Overall, mostly because they threw the ball16 more times than Denver and Denver ran the ball 16 more times, Cincinnati out gained Denver 6.1yppl to 5.0yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
San Francisco
28 22 2.8 5.1 3.9 2.5 6.8 5.3
27 17 3.1 6.6 5.0 2.5 6.5 5.1

Cincinnati 24 20 4.0 6.3 5.3 3.5 5.6 4.6
23 22 4.3 5.4 4.9 3.3 5.6 4.6

SF is really struggling to pass the ball averaging just 5.1yps against 6.6yps. The defense has been good against the run but a little below average defending the pass. Cincinnati has been good throwing the ball, averaging 6.3yps against 5.4yps and average overall on defense.

SF qualifies in an early season situation, which is 91-33-9. SF played their first two games at home this year, meaning this is their first road game but that actually sets them up in a favorable game three situation, which is 41-14-3. My numbers on this game, however, favor Cincinnati by 5.5 points, making it impossible to play SF despite the favorable situations. Numbers predict a total of approx. 47.5 points. SF has struggled on the road, going just 1-7 SU last year with the lone win at Arizona. They did win a game in London against Denver but that was on a neutral field. The year before they lost every road game but two divisional games at Arizona and St. Louis. Cincinnati, however, is just 2-10 ATS the last three years as a home pick or favorite. I’ll make this a three point game and let the spread determine which way I lean between two teams who have not performed well in the given situation. CINCINNATI 24 SAN FRANCISCO 21

New England –7 BUFFALO 53.5

NE defeated SD 35-21 last week, winning the turnover battle 4-0. Not only did SD have four turnovers, many which were deep in NE territory, but they also gave up the ball on downs deep in NE territory as well. For the game, NE was out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.8ypr but out passed SD 9.8yps to 8.9yps. Overall, they out gained SD 7.5yppl to 7.1yppl.

Buffalo put together a great comeback in their 38-35 victory over Oakland. Buffalo beat Oakland at their game, running the ball for 217 yards at 8.7ypr. They allowed 4.4ypr and 131 yards. They also allowed Oakland to pass for 323 yards at 9.8yps while averaging 5.7yps. Overall, they were out gained by Oakland, 7.2yppl to 6.8yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
NE 36 22 4.3 10.2 8.2 4.5 8.0 6.9
28 20 4.6 8.3 6.7 4.3 7.0 6.1

Buffalo 40 21 5.9 6.4 6.2 5.0 6.0 5.6
37 17 4.7 6.5 5.8 5.0 5.4 5.2

NE has been spectacular throwing the ball, averaging 10.2yps against teams allowing 8.3yps. The defense has been suspect, allowing 8.0yps against 7.0yps and 6.9yppl against 6.1yppl overall. Buffalo has been very dynamic running the ball, averaging 5.9ypr against 4.7ypr but just average throwing the ball. On defense, they have struggled against the pass, allowing 6.0yps against 5.4yps.

Buffalo qualifies in a few fundamental rushing situations, which are 187-100-13, 69-27-3 and 532-390-23. My numbers NE by only three points and predict a total of about 63.5 points. Buffalo has really struggled at home versus NE over the years. Over the last seven years, they have lost 3-34, 10-17, 0-13, 10-56, 6-28, 7-35 and 17-31. The Bills have won their first two games this year and they have only done that twice in the last eight years. Eight years ago they did it by defeating NE at home 31-0 (lost to NE the last game of the season by the same score) and also opened up in 2008 but lost to NE that year in the last game of the season 0-13. NE has some injuries in the secondary and are without one of their stud TE’s Aaron Hernandez and that could make a difference in the NE offense, although I still expect them to move the ball against a Bills secondary who is also missing Terrance McGee and has struggled to defend the pass. But, this is a lot of points to be giving the home team who has improved playmakers on defense, can run the ball and has some threats at the wideout position as well. NEW ENGLAND 31 BUFFALO 30

NEW ORLEANS –4 Houston 52

Houston came away with a 23-13 victory over Miami on the road last week. They allowed Miami to rush for 153 yards at 5.5ypr, while gaining 3.8ypr themselves. The Texans threw for only 207 yards but at 6.5yps and limited Miami to just 4.8yps. Overall, both teams averaged 5.1yppl for the game.

The Saints dominated Chicago 30-13, sacking Jay Cutler six times and limiting Chicago to just 3.6yps. NO gained 6.9yps and rushed for 4.1ypr while allowing Chicago to rush for 5.0ypr. Overall for the game, NO averaged 5.7yppl to Chicago’s 3.9yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Houston 28 10 4.0 7.4 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.9
30 16 3.9 8.2 6.1 4.7 5.6 5.3

NO 32 28 4.0 7.3 6.1 4.2 5.5 5.1
25 29 4.5 7.0 6.2 4.3 6.8 5.9

Houston has been below average on offense and throwing the ball, averaging just 7.4yps but against teams allowing 8.2yps. The defense has been good, especially against the pass, allowing 4.9yps against 5.6yps. NO has struggled to run the ball, averaging just 4.0ypr against 4.5ypr and been slightly above average throwing the ball, gaining 7.3yps against 7.0yps. On defense, they have been well above average against the pass, allowing just 5.5yps against 6.8yps. Overall on defense they allow 5.1yppl against 5.9yppl. This game does qualify in an under situation, which is 66-28-2.

I don’t have any side situations on this game. This game does qualify in an under situation, which is 66-28-2. My numbers favor NO by 4.5 points and predict 40 points. Still trying to get a gauge on Houston as it appears they may be running the ball a little more this year and it also appears their defense has improved. This will obviously be a good test as to how much their defense has improved. Houston has run the ball on nearly 58% of their plays while the Saints are throwing the ball on nearly 65% of their plays. The closest team I could compare Houston to is Atlanta who likes to run the ball, has some playmakers on offense and plays decent defense. In their games against the Falcons the last three years the Saints have lost by three, won by eight in their SB year and won by four in 2008. Total points scored in those games were 51, 62 and 54. This may be a little lower scoring than that but figures to be close. NEW ORLEANS 27 HOUSTON 24

PHILADELPHIA –8 NY Giants 48.5

The Giants won easily at home against the Rams last week 28-16 but they scored two touchdowns on either short drives or a 65 yard fumble return for a touchdown. Both teams averaged 3.1ypr but St. Louis averaged 6.4yps to just 5.7yps for the Giants. Overall, the Giants were out gained 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl, partly because the Giants ran the ball a lot more than they passed the ball (ran 19 more times than the Rams while throwing 16 fewer times).

Philly not only lost the game at Atlanta last week but also lost their quarterback Michael Vick in their 35-31 loss. Philly was out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.4ypr but Atlanta gained 61 yards on one rushing play or their average would have been only 2.8ypr. Philly averaged 8.5yps to just 5.6yps for Atlanta. Overall, Philly gained 6.7yppl to 5.2yppl for Atlanta. A couple of key turnovers really hurt Philadelphia in this game with Vick losing the ball at the goal line just before the half, with Philly threatening to take a 17-7 halftime lead. Instead, they went into halftime down 14-10 when his fumble was returned to Philly territory and led to a Falcons touchdown just before the half.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
NYG 21 22 3.3 6.2 4.9 3.0 6.6 5.3
24 20 5.0 6.0 5.6 4.3 6.1 5.4

Philadelphia 31 24 6.1 6.7 6.4 5.3 5.0 5.1
30 19 4.6 6.7 5.7 5.2 5.5 5.4

The Giants have struggled to run the ball, gaining just 3.3ypr against 5.0ypr. Overall on offense, they average just 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense, they have stuffed the run, allowing just 3.0ypr against 4.3ypr but been below average against the pass, allowing 6.6yps against 6.1yps. Overall, the defense is about average allowing 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Philly is averaging 6.1ypr against 4.6ypr, but just average throwing the ball at 6.7yps against 6.7yps. The defense is average against the run and above average against the pass, allowing 5.0yps against 5.5yps.

Philly qualifies in a 34-10-0 situation based on their loss last week. Numbers favor Philly by 7.5 and predict about 48 points. The Giants are banged up but their defensive line is a good match up for Philly. Philly has won the last two years here 27-17 and 40-17 although last years game was closer than the final score of 27-17. Have to lean towards Philly with the situation and their explosiveness versus a banged up Giants secondary. PHILADELPHIA 28 NY GIANTS 20

CLEVELAND –2.5 Miami 41

Miami struggled at home again in their 23-13 loss to Houston. They out rushed Houston 5.5ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 6.5yps to 4.8yps. Overall, both teams averaged 5.1yppl.

Cleveland went to Indy and did what they had to do in their 27-19 victory. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.1ypr but out passed Indy 6.0yps to 4.4yps. Overall, they out gained the Colts 4.5yppl to 4.3yppl. The Colts, who gave up short drives to Houston in the first week, allowed 13 more points on three drives of 28 yards or less.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Miami 18 30 5.2 6.4 6.0 4.2 8.9 7.0
16 32 4.7 6.8 6.0 4.1 9.1 6.8

Cleveland 22 23 3.2 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.7 4.5
26 19 3.6 6.3 4.9 4.0 5.5 4.9

Miami is rushing the ball well, averaging 5.2ypr against 4.7ypr but below average throwing the ball, averaging 6.4yps against 6.8yps. On defense they have been slightly below average, allowing 7.0yppl against 6.8yppl. Cleveland has been below average rushing the ball and well below throwing the ball, gaining just 5.3yps against 6.3yps. The defense has been pretty good, especially at home, allowing just 4.7yps against 5.5yps.

I have situations going both ways on this game. My numbers make this line Cleveland by one and predict about 46.5 points. Cleveland defeated Miami last year on the road 13-10. Under Tony Sparano, Miami is now 8-1 SU on the road against below .500 teams. Cleveland is .500 but I consider them to be a below .500 team at the end of the year. Cleveland struggled to beat anybody last year and against below .500 teams at home won by one, won by three and lost by two so they haven’t blown away bad teams. I will lean with Miami but respect the situations favoring Cleveland enough to keep me off of them as a best bet. MIAMI 24 CLEVELAND 23

TENNESSEE –6.5 Denver 42.5

Denver jumped out to a lead and was able to hold on last week at home against Cincinnati 24-22. Both teams rushed for 3.6ypr, while Denver threw for 6.9yps and allowed Cincinnati 7.2yps. For the game, Cincinnati averaged 6.1yppl to just 5.0yppl for Denver. Most of that difference was because Denver ran the ball 16 more times while Cincinnati passed the ball 16 more times.

Tennessee, who has a history of playing well as a home dog, stuffed the Ravens in their 26-13 victory last week. Both teams rushed for 2.6ypr but Tennessee took advantage of a depleted Ravens secondary and averaged 8.5yps to just 5.3yps for Baltimore. Overall, they averaged 6.1yppl to 4.4yppl for Baltimore.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Denver 22 22 3.4 5.9 4.9 4.4 6.2 5.4
25 27 4.7 5.6 5.2 4.4 6.8 5.6

Tennessee 20 14 2.8 7.8 6.0 3.3 5.6 4.4
20 17 3.2 7.0 5.5 4.0 5.5 4.8

Denver has struggled to run the ball, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.7ypr. The defense has been pretty good against the pass, allowing just 6.2yps against 6.8yps. Tennessee has thrown the ball well, averaging 7.8yps against 7.0yps. On defense, they have stuffed the run, allowing just 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr.

Denver qualifies in a game three situation that plays on teams playing their first road game of the year, which is 41-14-3. Numbers favor Tennessee by 7.5 points and predict about 39.5 points. Denver managed to come from behind last year and win 26-20 here. The Broncos are still banged up so it’s hard for me to play them with so many injuries. I will lean their way because of the situation but can’t play them with all the injuries. TENNESSEE 24 DENVER 20

Detroit –3.5 MINNESOTA 45

The Lions blew out KC last week 48-3. The Lions were out rushed 151-8o and 5.2ypr to 3.0ypr. Detroit threw for 8.1yps to just 4.6yps for KC. Overall, Detroit averaged 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl for KC. The Chiefs turned the ball over six times in the game. For Detroit 27 of their 48 points came on drives of 34 yards or less.

The Vikings jumped out to a 17-0 lead, only to be outscored 24-3 in the second half to lost at home to TB, 24-20. Minnesota averaged 5.6ypr to 5.5ypr for TB and averaged 6.6yps but allowed TB to average 7.0yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.4yppl to 6.1yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Detroit 38 12 3.3 8.6 6.1 4.6 5.1 4.9
34 14 4.1 7.9 6.0 5.1 4.9 5.0

Minnesota 18 24 5.8 4.9 5.4 4.0 6.7 5.8
25 22 4.7 7.7 6.3 3.9 6.9 5.9

Detroit has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging just 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr. They have been great throwing the ball, averaging 8.6yps against 7.9yps. The defense has been good against the run, allowing 4.6ypr against 5.1ypr but a little below average defending the pass, allowing 5.1yps against 4.9yps. The Vikings have run the ball extremely well this year, averaging 5.8ypr against 4.7ypr but really struggled throwing the ball, averaging just 4.9yps against 7.7yps. Overall, the offense is well below average, gaining just 5.4yppl against 6.3yppl. The defense has been good, allowing just 5.8yppl against 5.9yppl.

Minnesota qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 493-315-22, 69-27-3, 532-390-23 and 294-201-23. My numbers favor Detroit by three points and predict about 42.5 points. Minnesota has dominated this series, especially in Minnesota. The Vikings have won 13 straight games here versus Detroit. The Lions have scored exactly 10 points in each of the past three seasons. Minnesota has scored at least 22 points in each of those last 13 games with the exception of three years ago when they scored 12. Meanwhile, the Lions have only topped 20 points twice during that same time frame, the most recent in 2002. The Lions are obviously an improved team this year but Minnesota is rushing the ball extremely well this year and they also get back Kevin Williams on their defensive line. Detroit is 0-8 SU the last eight times they have been a road favorite, dating back to 1997. They are just 3-13 ATS dating back to 1991 in the same situation. Minnesota has an excellent chance to keep this game close and getting points at home gives them a great chance at the cover. MINNESOTA 21 DETROIT 20

CAROLINA –3.5 Jacksonville 43

Jacksonville has problems and they were exposed at the Jets last week in their 32-3 loss. Jacksonville did manage to average 4.1ypr and hold the Jets to just 3.2ypr but managed only 3.4yps and allowed 7.3yps. Overall, the Jets averaged 5.0yppl to 3.8yppl for Jacksonville.

Carolina caught GB by surprise early last week and raced out to a 13-0 lead. But, GB changed their defensive philosophy at that point and created problems for Carolina on offense. The Panthers averaged just 3.4ypr while allowing GB 5.9ypr but they did manage 8.1yps but also allowed GB to average 9.5yps. Overall, Carolina was out gained 8.lyppl to 6.7yppl. The difference would be even greater in those numbers if Carolina hadn’t thrown 19 more passes than GB.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Jacksonville 10 23 3.7 4.7 4.1 3.2 7.1 5.4
14 25 3.3 5.9 4.7 2.9 7.3 5.7

Carolina 22 29 3.0 8.9 6.8 4.8 9.8 7.7
25 30 3.8 7.9 6.5 4.8 8.6 7.0

Jacksonville has run the ball well this year, averaging 3.7ypr against 3.3ypr. The passing game has struggled averaging just 4.7yps against 5.9yps. On defense, they have actually been above average, allowing just 5.4yppl against 5.7yppl. Carolina has really struggled to run the ball this year, averaging just 3.0ypr against 3.8ypr but thrown the ball well, gaining 8.9yps against 7.9yps. The defense has struggled, especially against the pass, allowing 9.8yps against 8.6yps. Overall, on defense, they allow 7.7yppl against 7.0yppl.

Jacksonville qualifies in a 149-81-4 situation that plays on road teams coming off a loss. Numbers favor Carolina by just one point and predict about 39.5 points. I was a little surprised when my numbers actually supported Jacksonville in this game given how well Carolina has played on offense in their first two games. But, their defense has not been good and we must remember, as well as Carolina has looked in their first two games, they have not won a game yet. They surprised GB last week in the beginning but then were shut down pretty well for the last 2 ½ quarters or so. Jacksonville was 3-0 last year on the road against teams under .500 so they can compete when they are playing in their own class. Blaine Gabbert will get the start at quarterback for Jacksonville and nobody knows how he will do although he looked okay in limited action last week. Jacksonville figures to run the ball at a soft Carolina defense, which will help to protect the Jacksonville defense and Gabbert. JACKSONVILLE 23 CAROLINA 20

SAN DIEGO –14.5 Kansas City 44.5

KC was blown out at Detroit last week, 48-3. They turned the ball over six times and allowed Detroit to score 27 points on drives of 34 yards or less. The Chiefs did rush the ball for 151 yards at 5.2ypr but managed only 4.6yps. They held Detroit to just 3.0ypr but allowed 8.lyps. Overall, they were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl.

The Chargers played a competitive game at NE last week but lost 35-21, in large part because they turned the ball over three times deep in NE territory and turned the ball over on downs one other time deep in NE territory. They out rushed NE 4.1ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 9.8yps to 8.9yps. Overall, they were out gained 7.5yppl to 7.1yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
KC 5 44 5.5 3.5 4.4 3.7 7.8 5.7
16 38 4.8 5.6 5.3 4.6 7.5 6.1

SD 22 26 3.4 7.6 6.1 5.0 7.4 6.3
23 28 4.2 7.4 6.3 5.1 8.3 7.0

No question Chiefs are struggling this year, averaging just 3.5yps against 5.6yps but they are running the ball well, averaging 5.5ypr against 4.8yps. Overall, they average just 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has played reasonably well, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.6ypr and 5.7yppl against 6.1yppl overall. SD has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but been slightly above average throwing the ball, gaining 7.6yps against 7.4yps. Overall, the offense has been slightly below average, gaining just 6.1yppl against 6.3yppl. The defense has been good, especially against the pass, allowing just 7.4yps against 8.3yps.

The Chiefs qualify in numerous situations this week, including a league wide general situation, which is 56-27-1, a situation that plays on bad road teams, which is 128-58-5 and fundamental rushing situations, which are 158-86-8, 294-201-23 and 532-390-23. SD also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 128-58-8, and plays against them here. Numbers favor SD by 14 points and predict about only 36.5 points. The Chiefs have been absolutely destroyed in their first two games but it has more to do with turnovers than them being just awful, although their offense has been brutal. KC is tied with Pittsburgh for the worse turnover margin, -7. KC has played well on defense as you can see above. They just need to limit the turnovers. They are in some very good situations against a Charger team who has some injuries. KC has been blown out here the last two years 0-31 and 14-43. Last years 0-31 game was played without Matt Cassel. I like KC to hang within the number, which is fair as they have some very good situations on their side. SAN DIEGO 24 KANSAS CITY 14

NY Jets –3 -120 OAKLAND 41

The Jets had a much easier time last week with Jacksonville than week one with Dallas. They destroyed Jacksonville 32-3. NY was out rushed in the game 4.1ypr to 3.2ypr but out passed Jacksonville 7.3yps to 3.4yps. Overall, they out gained Jacksonville 5.0yppl to 3.8yppl. Jacksonville also turned the ball over four times to just two times for NY. The Jets scored 16 points on drives of 39 yards or less and also another two points on a safety.

Oakland blew a lead at Buffalo and lost 38-35. The Raiders were out rushed 217 yards to 131 at 8.7ypr to 4.4ypr. They out passed Buffalo 9.8yps to 5.7yps. Overall, they out gained Buffalo 7.2yppl to 6.8yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
NYJ 30 14 3.0 6.8 5.3 3.3 6.2 4.9
24 18 3.1 6.3 5.1 3.1 7.3 5.4

Oakland 29 29 4.7 7.5 5.9 6.7 5.5 5.9
22 31 4.7 6.1 5.5 4.9 6.1 5.6

Jets have been above average throwing the ball this year, gaining 6.8yps against 6.3yps. The defense has been especially tough against the pass, allowing just 6.2yps against 7.3yps. The Raiders have been surprisingly good throwing the ball this year, averaging 7.5yps against 6.1yps. The defense has allowed big runs, however, allowing 6.7ypr against 4.9ypr. The pass defense has been good but not good enough to make up for the poor rush defense.

The Jets qualify in an early season situation, which is 91-33-9 if they are favored by three points or less. They also qualify in a game three situation that plays on road teams playing their first road game of the year, which is 41-14-3. Numbers favor the Jets by just two points and predict about 51 points. The Jets will play this game without Nick Mangold, their all pro center. The Jets won here two years ago as six point favorites, 38-0. The year before, with Brett Favre, they lost 13-16 as three point favorites. Oakland played two teams with above average offenses last year at home and they allowed 31 and 27 points. Meanwhile, the Jets played over the total in 10 of their 11 games last year 20 or more points in eight of those eleven games. They also scored at least 24 points in every road game against below average defenses, like Oakland. I like the Jets to shut down an Oakland team who likes to run the ball 55% of the time and force Oakland to go to a passing game that has plenty of receivers injured, although that didn’t stop them last week against Buffalo. NY JETS 30 OAKLAND 20

Baltimore –4 ST LOUIS 42

The Ravens ran into a team that is very tough at home as a home dog. Baltimore lost at Tennessee 26-13. Both teams rushed for 2.6ypr but Baltimore was out passed 8.5yps to 5.3yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.1yppl to 4.4yppl.

The Rams went to NY for a Monday night game with a banged up team and lost 28-16. Both teams rushed for 3.1ypr and St. Louis averaged 6.4yps to just 5.7yps for the Giants. Overall, the Rams out gained the Giants 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl but that was mostly because they threw the ball 16 more times while the Giants ran the ball 19 more times.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Baltimore 24 16 4.5 6.1 5.4 3.1 6.9 5.6
16 18 3.8 5.5 4.7 3.3 7.4 5.9

St Louis 14 30 4.7 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
23 26 4.3 5.9 5.2 4.7 6.4 5.7

Baltimore is running the ball this year, averaging 4.5ypr against 3.8ypr. They are also throwing the ball well, averaging 6.1yps against 5.5yps. The defense has been good, especially against the pass, allowing just 6.9yps against 7.4yps. The Rams have run the ball well, gaining 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr but been below average trying to throw the ball. The defense is allowing 5.2ypr against 4.7ypr but been above average against the pass, allowing just 5.2yps against 6.4yps.

Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 659-521-36 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation and road favorites also don’t perform quite as well in that situation. Numbers favor Baltimore by nine points and predict about 47.5 points. Not a lot of an opinion in this game. Numbers strongly support Baltimore and my situation does as well, although they are not in the best spot for that situation. Rams are just too banged up to try and support in any way. They played three games against teams above .500 last year and lost by 17 to Atlanta, by 24 to Kansas City and defeated SD by three. They lost by 18 at home to Philadelphia this year. I’ll lean towards Baltimore. BALTIMORE 27 ST LOUIS 20

TAMPA BAY –2.5 Atlanta 46

Atlanta got a much needed win at home over Philadelphia 35-31 but they were out played in the game. They out rushed Philly 4.8ypr to 4.4ypr but 61 yards came on one play or they would have averaged just 2.8ypr. They were out passed 8.5yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall, 6.7yppl to 5.2yppl. Philly turned the ball over three times, including a key turnover near the goal line just before halftime that would have given Philly a 17-7 lead. Instead, Atlanta went into halftime with a 14-10 lead.

TB spotted Minnesota a 17-0 lead at halftime last week. But, in the second half TB outscored Minnesota 24-3 for a 24-20 victory. The Bucs gained 5.5ypr but allowed Minnesota 5.6ypr. They out passed Minnesota 7.0yps to 6.6yps. Overall, they out gained Minnesota 6.4yppl to 6.1yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Atlanta 24 30 5.8 5.4 5.5 3.9 8.1 6.3
22 26 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.2 6.0 5.7

TB 22 24 4.6 6.0 5.6 4.6 8.0 6.2
18 28 4.3 6.0 5.4 4.5 7.1 5.8

The Falcons are running the ball well, averaging 5.8ypr against 5.3ypr although a lot of their rush yardage has come on two long running plays. The defense has defended the rush well, allowing just 3.9ypr against 5.2ypr. The pass defense has been horrible, allowing 8.1yps against 6.0yps. TB has been average on offense and is allowing a whopping 8.0yps against 7.1yps on defense.

Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 493-315-22. Numbers favor TB by two points and predict about 52.5 points. TB has played 10 teams at home under Raheem Morris and they are 1-9 SU in those games and they were never listed as a favorite in any of those games. The fact they are a favorite now maybe means they are the better team but until I see them start to beat some good teams, I have to believe Atlanta is the better team. They have lost by 10 and 4 points the last two years here against Atlanta. Both teams offenses are playing about the same but Atlanta has played Chicago and Philadelphia. Against good teams last year at home TB allowed 38, 31 and 28 points and allowed another 23 to Detroit last year and 27 to Detroit this year, in terms of also playing teams with good offenses. For TB to cover this game they will have to score at least 30 points, in my opinion. ATLANTA 30 TAMPA BAY 24

Arizona –3.5 SEATTLE 43

Arizona started out slow at Washington but gave up a late eight point lead to lose 22-21. They out rushed Washington 6.2ypr to 4.9ypr but allowed 172 yards to just 93 for Arizona. They out passed Washington 7.0yps to 6.4yps. Overall, they out gained Washington 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl.

Seattle was destroyed for the second consecutive week at Pittsburgh 24-0. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 2.4ypr, out passed 9.0yps to 3.9yps and out gained overall, 6.2yppl to 3.5yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Arizona 24 22 4.8 8.5 7.0 4.0 8.1 6.3
23 24 4.8 8.2 6.9 3.6 7.8 6.2

Seattle 8 28 2.7 3.8 3.5 3.1 7.9 5.3
20 22 3.5 6.2 5.2 3.3 6.2 4.9

Arizona has been slightly above average throwing the ball, gaining 8.5yps against 8.2yps. The defense is allowing 4.0ypr against 3.6ypr and 8.1yps against 7.8yps. Seattle has really struggled on offense, gaining just 2.7ypr against 3.5ypr and 3.8yps against 6.2yps. The defense has played well against the run but terrible against the pass, allowing 7.9yps against 6.2yps.

Arizona would qualify in an early season situation, which is 91-33-9 if this line is –3 or less. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 532-390-23. Numbers favor Arizona by five points and predict about 40.5 points. The Seahawks are just a bad team. They do get their first home game and get Sidney Rice back this week but this offense is not good. At home, they always seem to play better so they certainly may step up and play well enough to win but until I see, I won’t believe it. Arizona has a much better offense and has played better on defense has well. I have to believe Arizona can get to 24 points in this game. If Seattle can score more than that, then they may get the win. They’ll have to if they want to win this game straight up. ARIZONA 27 SEATTLE 17

Green Bay –3.5 CHICAGO 45.5

The Packers started out slow but made the right adjustments to overcome a 13-0 deficit and win at Carolina 30-23. GB out rushed Carolina 5.9ypr to 3.4ypr, out passed Carolina 9.5yps to 8.1yps and overall, out gained Carolina 8.1yppl to 6.7yppl. Carolina helped their overall numbers by throwing the ball 19 more times than GB. GB did have an 84 yard touchdown pass that would have brought their overall numbers down to about 7.0yps without the long pass play.

The Bears were beaten badly at NO 30-13. They out rushed NO 5.0ypr to 4.1ypr but were out passed badly, 6.9yps to 3.6yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.7yppl to 3.9yppl, including allowing six more sacks to go along with their five sacks allowed in week one.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
GB 36 28 4.7 8.7 7.1 3.6 7.8 6.6
28 27 4.5 7.2 6.3 3.5 8.1 6.5

Chicago 22 21 3.8 5.4 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.8
29 28 4.0 6.7 5.7 4.8 6.4 5.9

The Packers have been surprisingly good running the ball, averaging 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr and very good throwing the ball, gaining 8.7yps against 7.2yps. For all the points the defense is allowing they are actually about average, allowing 6.6yppl against 6.5yppl. Chicago is really struggling on offense, especially throwing the ball, gaining just 5.4yps against 6.7yps. The defense is allowing a surprisingly high 5.3ypr against 4.8ypr but been above average against the pass, allowing just 6.0yps against 6.4yps.

GB would qualify in an early season situation, which is 91-33-9 if this line is –3 or less. The Packers also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 187-100-3 and 493-315-22. Numbers favor GB by 4.5 points and predict about 44 points. The Packers offense is much, much better than Chicago and the defenses are about even. The Packers will get Tramon Williams back this week as well. GB won two of the three games played between these two last year, splitting the two games in Chicago. The first game the Packers lost 20-17, they out played the Bears from the line of scrimmage but 18 penalties and short fields for the Bears because of punt returns and turnovers did the Packers in. Of the last six games played between these two in Chicago, however, the Packers have not scored more than 21 points except six games ago when they scored 26. They also haven’t given up more than 20 points with the exception of allowing 35 points five games ago. So, these games have not been high scoring between these two. GB’s ability to run the ball and Chicago’s inability to stop the run will make it a tough day for the Bears to cover this spread because you know GB will get their passing game going as always. TJ Lang has taken over at left guard this year for GB and they are running the ball much better with him as well as Starks now being healthy and have a years worth of experience. GREEN BAY 27 CHICAGO 17

Pittsburgh –10.5 INDIANAPOLIS 39.5

Pittsburgh bounced back from their week one loss at Baltimore with an easy 24-0 victory over Seattle. The Steelers out rushed Seattle 3.5ypr to 2.4yps, out passed them badly 9.0yps to 3.9yps and out gained them overall 6.2yppl to 3.5yppl.

Indy hung tough for a while at home against Cleveland but eventually gave in and loss 27-19. Cleveland scored 13 points on three drives of 28 yards or less. Indy out rushed Cleveland 4.2ypr to 3.1ypr but were out passed 6.0yps to 4.4yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.5yppl to 4.3yppl.

Team PF PA YPR YPS YPPL DYPR DYPS DYPPL
Pittsburgh 16 18 3.7 7.0 5.7 4.6 5.4 5.1
22 16 3.1 7.3 5.5 3.7 4.9 4.5

Indianapolis 13 30 4.1 4.7 4.5 3.6 7.1 5.2
16 25 4.5 4.8 4.7 3.6 6.2 4.9

Pittsburgh has run the ball well this year, gaining 3.7ypr but against teams allowing only 3.1ypr. They are slightly below average throwing the ball. The defense is allowing 4.6ypr against 3.7ypr and 5.4yps against 4.9yps so they are well below average, allowing 5.1yppl against 4.5yppl. Indy is struggling on offense, averaging just 4.5yppl against 4.7yppl. The defense has been horrible against the pass, allowing 7.1yps against 6.2yps.

Indianapolis qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 493-315-23. Numbers actually favor Indy by one point in this game and predict about 46 points. Simply put the numbers support Indianapolis but I can’t take Indy. They were blown out in their first game against Houston and it could have been much worse if Houston wouldn’t have stopped playing at halftime. Last week Cleveland pulled away to win be eight and that’s only because of a late score by Indy. Pittsburgh has the chance to do much of the same, although my numbers don’t suggest it but I can’t play Indy knowing how bad they are on offense. And, they are banged up on defense as well. PITTSBURGH 24 INDIANAPOLIS 17

[timbob]

Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAY:

· San Diego -15 Kansas City


SINGLE PLAYS:

· Philly -7 1/2 NY Giants

· Oakland +3 1/2 NY Jets

· Pittsburgh -10 1/2 Indianapolis

· Green Bay -3 1/2 Chicago

· Denver +7 Tennessee

· Denver--Tennessee OVER 41

[timbob]

EA Sports Consultants
25* Jaguars +3.5 (1:00pm ET)

25* Saints -3.5 (1:00pm ET)

50* Vikings +3.5 (1:00pm ET)

50* Raiders +3.5 (4:05pm ET)

50* Bears +3.5 (4:15pm ET)

[timbob]

Colin Cowherd

Oakland
Miami
Tennessee

[timbob]

Vegas Runner

2* NFL Tampa

[timbob]

THE DAILY BOBBER

NFL
Two-game teaser (6 points): Titans (-1) & Buccaneers (+9)

[timbob]

MLBPredictions or NFLOrg
Kevin

5* Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

3* Atlanta Falcons +2.5

1* Chicago Bears +4

1* Jacksonville Jaguars +4

1* UNDER 43 - Arizona Cardinals / Seattle Seahawks /

[timbob]

Vegas Sports Informer

5* #410 Carolina -3 ½ over Jacksonville (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 25)

3* #397 Over 53 ½ New England at Buffalo (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 25)

3* #421 Green Bay -3 ½ over Chicago (4:15p.m., Sunday, Sept 25)

[timbob]

OCAL SPORTS

4* JAX @ CAR UNDER 43

4* Giants +9

[timbob]

George Pappas Investments

9/25

5* Panthers -3.5 <<-- Biggest play of the week.

1* Lions -3.5

[timbob]

Joseph D'Amico

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -14.5

Kansas City lost 3 players, all with season-ending injuries already. TE, Tony Moeaki, Safety, Eric Berry, and RB, Jamaal Charles. These absences will make the situation in KC go from bad to worse. This is a team in turmoil on and off the field. KC was outscored 89-10 to Buffalo and Detroit. The team is done. QB, Matt Cassel doesn't have the receivers let alone the running game to carry the "O" himself. San Diego posted big numbers against Minnesota and New England. QB, Philip Rivers was 29of 40 with 378 YP vs. New England. His OL is looking solid and the team isn't the slow starters that they have once been known to be. The last time these teams met, San Diego blanked Kansas City, 31-0. The Chiefs average 5.0 PPG while yielding 44.5 PPG. Rivers and the Charger offense will score and score often. The Home team is 4-1 ATS their L5 meetings. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS their L8games played at the Chargers, 1-8 ATS their L9 vs. the AFC, and 0-4 ATS their L4 games played overall. Take San Diego.