9-25-11

[timbob]

Nelly Greensheet:

4* No
3 * GB
2* Sea
2* caro

[timbob]

Power Plays: (4.5 and 4 *'s only)

4* Chargers 36 over Chiefs 14

[timbob]

PowerSweep:

5 NY JETS
4 Miami
3 NE
2 J'village
1 Minny

[timbob]

CKO:

10*/11* Seattle 30 over Zona 19

[timbob]

RedSheet:

Miami 24 (88*)
Clevland 20

(87*'s) Near Choices: NO, Sea, Washy

[timbob]

Football Jesus

Early Text freebie : Bengals

[timbob]

Marc Lawrence

3 Units Broncos +6.5

3 Units Vikings +3.5

[timbob]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
6 Units Take #408 Minnesota (+3.5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month.

3.5 Units Take #400 New Orleans (-4) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

2.5 Units Take #406 Tennessee (-6.5) over Denver (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Lower this to a 2-Unit Play.

2.5 Units Take #421 Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Lower this to a 2-Unit Play.

2.5 Units Take #411 Kansas City (+14.5) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Lower this play to a 2-Unit Play.

1.5 Units Take #418 Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Note: Bump this up to a 2-Unit Play.

1 Unit Take #413 N.Y. Jets (-3.5) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

3 Unit TEASER: Take #397 New England (-1.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m.) AND Take #423 Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Indianapolis (8:20 p.m.)

2 Unit TEASER: Take #403 Miami (+9.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m.) AND Take #419 Arizona (+4) over Seattle (4 p.m.)


This Week's Totals
3 Unit Take 'Under' 40.5 San Francisco at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

1 Unit Take 'Under' 41.0 Miami at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

1 Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.0 N.Y. Jets at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

1 Unit Play Take 'Over' 42.0 Denver at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)

2 Unit Play Take #403 Miami (+3) over Cleveland (1 p.m.). I recommend buying up to the 3.0 on this game.

[timbob]

Hilton week 3, top 20

GB taken 8 times (chi 2) so net +6

Phil 7 times (ny 0) so net +7

Pit 6 times (ind 0) so net +6

Was 6 times (dal 0) so net +6


Hilton Contest Selections


This weeks top five picks by number of handicappers.

#1 Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 169 Handicappers
#2 Oakland Raiders +3.5 154 Handicappers
#3 Miami Dolphins +2.5 131 Handicappers
#4 Minnesota Vikings +3.5 130 Handicappers
#5 Baltimore Ravens -4 127 Handicappers

The least popular selection by Hilton handicappers is the
Kansas City +14 with only 25 Handicappers on the Chiefs.

[timbob]

Tim Trushel Sports

20* AFC Game of the Year
Browns -2

10* Tampa Bay -1.5

[timbob]

Today's CFL Picks
Calgary at Hamilton

The Stampeders look to bounce back from last week's 32-19 loss to BC and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games following a loss in the previous week. Calgary is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+1). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (9/21)

Game 497-498: Calgary at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 111.642; Hamilton 109.933
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+1); Under

[timbob]

WNBA Basketball Picks
Indiana at Atlanta

The Dream look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Atlanta is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 605-606: Indiana at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.734; Atlanta 117.738
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 157 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Minnesota at Phoenix (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.301; Phoenix 116.956
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 175 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1 1/2); Over

[timbob]

RICK NEEDHAM

Packers (-3.0) at Bears (O/U = 46.0) September 25, 4:14 PM FOX

The oldest rivalry in the National Football League will renew again Sunday at Soldier Field in Chicago when the Green Bay Packers try and remain perfect on the season against the one-loss Chicago Bears in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game on the Fox Network. Green Bay moved to 2-0 with a hard-fought, 30-23, victory on the road over the Carolina Panthers last Sunday. The Packers put to bed a dismal first half in the locker room and used a 16-point third quarter to build up a lead against the Panthers and their rookie QB Cam Newton, then held on for dear life in the final minutes as the Panthers rallied to pull it to within a score. Chicago is coming off of a rollercoaster ride of a week, one that started with an inspiring victory in the opener over the Falcons, then faced the adversity of linebacker Brian Urlacher’s mother’s sudden death and finally concluded with a, 30-13, dud against the New Orleans Saints for their first loss of the season. The Bears biggest weakness, their offensive line, once again showed up on Sunday as QB Jay Cutler was pounded repeatedly in the loss making the Bears go back to the drawing board this week before welcoming their NFC North rivals to town. Sunday’s meeting between these two will be their fourth game in the past year including the NFC title game, and the third time the Bears will host the grudge match, so look for the Bears and their fans to try and get out to a fast start in order to take the Packers out of their early comfort zone.
The problem is that most people are still not giving Chicago much respect, including the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas, who opened the rivalry game with Green Bay as 3-point favorites on the road. The betting public isn’t offering much respect either, as the number has actually gone up to 3.5-points at a few offshore sportsbooks with most of the early money coming in on the Packers. The over/under total opened at 46 and has dropped the hook to 45.5 at almost every sportsbook in Vegas and on the Web currently listing a total on their board. Offensively you know what you’re going to get from the Packers side, you just can bank on which Bears offense is going to show up, the one that looked really good in week one or the one that was dismantled in New Orleans last week.

Green Bay is ranked in the top-10 across the board in most of the offensive categories, with the 8th-ranked passing attack in the NFL after two weeks (295.5 ypg) and the 9th-ranked total offense in the league at 409 yards a game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers would likely have better numbers if the Packers receivers didn’t have a case of the drops last week in Carolina, but even still the Packers are a very dangerous unit as evidenced by their 4th-ranked scoring total at 36 points per game. The Bears offense that went for 377 yards in the opener was held to just 246 against the Saints, but what is the most surprising aspect of those numbers is that the Bears still can’t seem to get their running game going to support Cutler. After two games the Bears rank 27th in the league with just a 74 yards per game average, which as many Bears fans know puts unwanted pressure on Cutler to try and do too much. Plus I already mentioned the Bears troubles along the offensive line, a line that has already given up 11 sacks through two games and has forced the strong Bears defense to play too many downs and the season is still very young. The line played without guard Lance Louis in week two and he’s listed as questionable for this week, but the jury is still out on whether or not it will make the unit strong enough to protect Cutler and get the run game going.

The good news is that the Bears defense under coach Lovie Smith has always played the Packers tough, allowing them just 48 points in all three games last year combined, including a low of 17 at Soldier Field last season (a 20-17 Bears win) and just 10 in the Packers 10-3 season-ending victory at Lambeau in 2010. If the Bears can limit the potent Packers offense again this week like they did last season it should keep them in good shape too, because the Packers defense reeling right now. The Packers secondary, normally the strength of the unit, is ranked dead-last 32nd in pass defense giving up 400 yards per game so far. Plus, they’ll have to figure out a way to replace Pro-Bowl safety Nick Collins, who injured his neck in the Carolina game and has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Charlie Peprah will likely get the start in place of Collins, but Peprah is better near the line of scrimmage and is much slower than Collins in pass coverage, something the Bears and Cutler will try and take advantage of on Sunday. As mentioned, Green Bay won two of the three games between these two rivals last season on the scoreboard, but the Bears were better to gamblers as they covered in two of the three including the regular season matchup at Soldier Field as (ironically) 3-point underdogs. Going back 10 games (to 2006) the Packers own a 6-4 SU advantage, as well as a 6-4 ATS advantage too. But home field doesn’t appear to matter much in this series, as the Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings at Soldier Field, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.

If you like to play betting trends than you’ll likely be placing a wager on the under in this game. The under is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven head-to-head games, and it’s also a perfect 4-0 in the last four played at Chicago. The under is also 6-1 in the Packers last seven games as a road favorite, and 4-0 in their last four games played within the NFC North. The under is even 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven games versus the NFC North, so if those aren’t strong enough trends than I don’t know what you’re looking for from trends.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The Bears offensive line looks like crap. This will negatively affect their chances to score which should put the final combined score in the 30's. I'll TAKE THE UNDER (46.0)

RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS

TEXANS AT SAINTS - UNDER (54.0)
FALCONS ( 2.0) OVER BUCS

[timbob]

Today's MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis

The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's 2-1 loss and build on their 6-1 record in Randy Wells' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Chicago is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at NY Mets (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.720; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.226
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.982; Washington (Detwiler) 15.662
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Willis) 15.059; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.290
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under

Game 957-958: Colorado at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 13.395; Houston (Harrell) 14.237
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Over

Game 959-960: Florida at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.606; Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.596
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over

Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.795; St. Louis (Jackson) 15.176
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Under

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 17.069; San Diego (Luebke) 15.986
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 965-966: San Francisco at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.232; Arizona (Collmenter) 16.232
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 16.115; Detroit (Penny) 16.873
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170);

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.411; Cleveland (Carmona) 13.859
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.468; Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.846
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 14.997; White Sox (Floyd) 14.314
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over


Game 975-976: Seattle at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Furbush) 15.751; Texas (Holland) 15.034
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+180); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 15.779; LA Angels (Pineiro) 16.195
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under

Game 979-980: Boston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.525; NY Yankees (Burnett) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 981-982: Boston at NY Yankees (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 14.762; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.320
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[timbob]

GMC-25* Jacksonville
10* Eagles
10* Saints
10* Raiders