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RANDY BRUCE
5 dimes Colts +10
5 dimes Colts +10
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Matt Fargo
9* Colts / Buccaneers Under
Nationally televised games typically bring out the over bettors and this is certainly the case for Monday night games. Also, the Sunday night nationally televised game had 51 points scored last night which is another typically heavy over bet. Because of this, we get value with the under as the number is overadjusted which we are definitely seeing here. We won with the under last Monday night as well as the under two Mondays ago (some may have pushed) and we once again will ride the contrarian side. The Colts have gone over the total in each of their last two games and I feel the value tonight is on the opposite side based on those recent results. Those two games came against the Browns and Steelers and both of those offenses and defenses are right in line with the Tampa Bay offense and defense yet we are seeing an increase in the total by a point. Granted a point is not much but it is the way the o/u has been adjusted which is the key as there are no other reasons it has increased other than public perception. Tampa Bay went under it is last game which came at home against the Falcons. The Buccaneers did an excellent job of slowing down the potent Falcons offense as they allowed just 13 points and 325 total yards. The Tampa Bay pass rush was the difference as it was able to win the line of scrimmage and we will see that again here against a very weak Colts offensive line. With the exception of Matthew Stafford using three-step drops, the Bucs have dialed up the pressure. They have six sacks the last two games. On the other side, the Colts defense has the one area of improvement as they have fewer points in each game going forward. The defense has been hurt by the offense as it has put the stop unit in too many bad situations with a short field. More than half of the 84 points allowed have resulted from punt and fumble returns for touchdowns or been set up by short-field situations. The Colts have yielded 43 points, 14.3 ppg, on drives longer than 28 yards. Which is a very respectable number. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman is seventh in the NFL in completion percentage at 67.9 percent but is in the middle of the pack with an average of 227.3 ypg. Because he completes a lot of passes, it shortens the game and on the other side with another quarterback change, Indianapolis will be going with the running game which shortens the game even more. Going contrarian, the majority of the action is on a high scoring game yet the number has dropped from its opening of 42 and the reverse move tells the story.Comment
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Bob Balfe
Tampa Bay Rays -121
There is something about these Rays this year that are destined to make a deep run into the postseason. Texas is not used to playing in a dome with this playoff pressure. I just do not think this is a favorable spot for the Rangers against lefthanded pitching. The Rays have a great bullpen and should get the critical game three win. Take Tampa.Comment
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