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STRIKE POINT SPORTS
5-Unit Play. #367 Take Arizona (-2) over Oregon State (7 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
On paper this game probably looks like a coin flip. At first glance 1-4 Arizona v. 0-4 Oregon State looks like a clash of two poor teams, but while one team is as bad as their record suggests the other's start to the season is as much a product of their schedule as it is their play on the field. The Wildcats are the latter. Sure, it might look sort of silly to argue away their opening five-game stretch of the season. But then again, I am not saying this Arizona team is a BCS quality team. They are an above average team who have started slow, and now is as perfect a time to buy stock low, especially in a match-up where there are far and wide better than an Oregon State team that is the worst team in the Pac 12. Yes, Arizona is 1-4 and for that alone I understand why the line is low. But just the same, it is incorrect and off by at least four or five points.
Arizona has played arguably the toughest schedule in the country through the first five weeks of the season. Just consider this: After opening with a win over Northern Arizona, they played three straight top ten teams (Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon) and a USC team that was ranked a week prior to their win over Arizona in Los Angeles last Saturday. Conversely, Oregon State set the tone for their season with a home loss to I-AA Sacramento State. The Beavers rank 102nd in the nation in rushing yards, 111th in scoring and 95th in points allowed. They are bad. They are already -4 in turnover differential and their quarterback play has accounted for only two touchdowns to six interceptions. Their counterpart under center in Nick Foles for Arizona has 14 TDs and only 2 INTs while completing a superb 72 percent of his passes.
The road team is 6-1 ATS and SU in the last seven meetings. Home field doesn't mean anything for the Beavers in Corvallis. It certainly didn't help against the likes of Sacramento State or UCLA, and it is not going to help against an Arizona team that packs a much stronger punch offensively The 'Cats will be keen to finally get into a game where they can certainly win and take out some frustration from the last month of top tier talent they had to face. Even in defeat, Arizona racked up 31 points against Oregon and 41 against USC. Surely they can match those numbers on Saturday against a weaker Oregon State team.
Quarterback Nick Foles is playing as well as any player in the country at his position. Arizona may not be clicking as a team, but this is a spot on their schedule where they get a chance to break out of their funk and tally a big win. This team can put up the points, so expect another effort of 30+ from the Wildcats. However this time it comes with a much-improved defensive performance. Arizona finds its way back to the winner's circle, 35-21.
3-Unit Play. #332 Take Miami (OH) (+2) over Army (1 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
Maybe I am going out on a limb to back the winless Redhawks, however I feel Army should not be favored on the road and am willing to ride with Miami (OH) in now their fifth attempt to earn their first victory of the season. Army has gone on the road twice this season, and twice they have been blown out, and not exactly against stellar competition. The Black Knights lost by 23 to Northern Illinois and 27 to Ball State (6-6 combined record). Miami played Missouri tough on the road to begin the season. They lost by just two at Minnesota. And last week they hosted a red hot Cincinnati team and played them tough into the second half. Army is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. the MAC and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. That's good enough for me. Miami (OH) registers their first win of the season here, 27-20.
3-Unit Play. #354 Take Tennessee (+2) over Georgia (7 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
I look at this Georgia team and I think of one key thing: I don't trust Aaron Murray. He seems to never come up with the goods in the big game, and here on the road in a tough atmosphere in Knoxville, I will fade him and the Bulldogs. Give me Tyler Bray instead, who has been terrific early on with 14 TDs to just 2 INTs and completing 68.5 percent of his passes. The Vols got over their loss at Florida with a comfortable win at home against Buffalo last weekend. Now they get back to the conference slate and there is good reason to believe they will be back to their winning ways. The home team has won each of the last four meetings, and you have to say that means something when playing week in and week out in the toughest conference in college football. The thing is, this line is suggesting that not only does Tennessee have no home field advantage, but also that Georgia are the better team. I completely disagree with both. Neyland Stadium is a beast of a place to visit, and with South Carolina and Florida's first losses coming last Saturday, the SEC East is wide open and up for grabs. Georgia is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. winning teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Georgia. Tennessee bests their neighbors to the south in a game where the Dawgs will not be able to play keep up in the scoring department, 41-31.
3-unit play. #401 Take Arkansas State (-2) over Louisiana Monroe (7 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
Arkansas State has been an under-the-radar cash cow for backers that have managed to find their games underneath all the BCS hype and Top 25 power teams. The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in begin 2011, and this week they face a Louisiana-Monroe team that is 1-3 in the standings and struggling to score points. ASU stayed inside the number in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech back in mid September, as well as collected back-to-back wins to come into this weekend with momentum against ULM. In this Sun Belt match-up, the favorite has won each of the last three times and four of the last five. Nine of the last ten meetings between these two have had lines of a touchdown or less, so in what should probably be another closely contested game I will feel good backing the team playing the better football with a winning mentality. That is Arkansas State, and they grab the road 'W', 31-24
5-Unit Play. #367 Take Arizona (-2) over Oregon State (7 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
On paper this game probably looks like a coin flip. At first glance 1-4 Arizona v. 0-4 Oregon State looks like a clash of two poor teams, but while one team is as bad as their record suggests the other's start to the season is as much a product of their schedule as it is their play on the field. The Wildcats are the latter. Sure, it might look sort of silly to argue away their opening five-game stretch of the season. But then again, I am not saying this Arizona team is a BCS quality team. They are an above average team who have started slow, and now is as perfect a time to buy stock low, especially in a match-up where there are far and wide better than an Oregon State team that is the worst team in the Pac 12. Yes, Arizona is 1-4 and for that alone I understand why the line is low. But just the same, it is incorrect and off by at least four or five points.
Arizona has played arguably the toughest schedule in the country through the first five weeks of the season. Just consider this: After opening with a win over Northern Arizona, they played three straight top ten teams (Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon) and a USC team that was ranked a week prior to their win over Arizona in Los Angeles last Saturday. Conversely, Oregon State set the tone for their season with a home loss to I-AA Sacramento State. The Beavers rank 102nd in the nation in rushing yards, 111th in scoring and 95th in points allowed. They are bad. They are already -4 in turnover differential and their quarterback play has accounted for only two touchdowns to six interceptions. Their counterpart under center in Nick Foles for Arizona has 14 TDs and only 2 INTs while completing a superb 72 percent of his passes.
The road team is 6-1 ATS and SU in the last seven meetings. Home field doesn't mean anything for the Beavers in Corvallis. It certainly didn't help against the likes of Sacramento State or UCLA, and it is not going to help against an Arizona team that packs a much stronger punch offensively The 'Cats will be keen to finally get into a game where they can certainly win and take out some frustration from the last month of top tier talent they had to face. Even in defeat, Arizona racked up 31 points against Oregon and 41 against USC. Surely they can match those numbers on Saturday against a weaker Oregon State team.
Quarterback Nick Foles is playing as well as any player in the country at his position. Arizona may not be clicking as a team, but this is a spot on their schedule where they get a chance to break out of their funk and tally a big win. This team can put up the points, so expect another effort of 30+ from the Wildcats. However this time it comes with a much-improved defensive performance. Arizona finds its way back to the winner's circle, 35-21.
3-Unit Play. #332 Take Miami (OH) (+2) over Army (1 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
Maybe I am going out on a limb to back the winless Redhawks, however I feel Army should not be favored on the road and am willing to ride with Miami (OH) in now their fifth attempt to earn their first victory of the season. Army has gone on the road twice this season, and twice they have been blown out, and not exactly against stellar competition. The Black Knights lost by 23 to Northern Illinois and 27 to Ball State (6-6 combined record). Miami played Missouri tough on the road to begin the season. They lost by just two at Minnesota. And last week they hosted a red hot Cincinnati team and played them tough into the second half. Army is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. the MAC and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. That's good enough for me. Miami (OH) registers their first win of the season here, 27-20.
3-Unit Play. #354 Take Tennessee (+2) over Georgia (7 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
I look at this Georgia team and I think of one key thing: I don't trust Aaron Murray. He seems to never come up with the goods in the big game, and here on the road in a tough atmosphere in Knoxville, I will fade him and the Bulldogs. Give me Tyler Bray instead, who has been terrific early on with 14 TDs to just 2 INTs and completing 68.5 percent of his passes. The Vols got over their loss at Florida with a comfortable win at home against Buffalo last weekend. Now they get back to the conference slate and there is good reason to believe they will be back to their winning ways. The home team has won each of the last four meetings, and you have to say that means something when playing week in and week out in the toughest conference in college football. The thing is, this line is suggesting that not only does Tennessee have no home field advantage, but also that Georgia are the better team. I completely disagree with both. Neyland Stadium is a beast of a place to visit, and with South Carolina and Florida's first losses coming last Saturday, the SEC East is wide open and up for grabs. Georgia is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. winning teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Georgia. Tennessee bests their neighbors to the south in a game where the Dawgs will not be able to play keep up in the scoring department, 41-31.
3-unit play. #401 Take Arkansas State (-2) over Louisiana Monroe (7 p.m., Saturday, October 8)
Arkansas State has been an under-the-radar cash cow for backers that have managed to find their games underneath all the BCS hype and Top 25 power teams. The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in begin 2011, and this week they face a Louisiana-Monroe team that is 1-3 in the standings and struggling to score points. ASU stayed inside the number in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech back in mid September, as well as collected back-to-back wins to come into this weekend with momentum against ULM. In this Sun Belt match-up, the favorite has won each of the last three times and four of the last five. Nine of the last ten meetings between these two have had lines of a touchdown or less, so in what should probably be another closely contested game I will feel good backing the team playing the better football with a winning mentality. That is Arkansas State, and they grab the road 'W', 31-24
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