10-20-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Thursday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
UCLA/Arizona UNDER 62

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Thursday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
UCLA/Arizona UNDER 62

[Mr. IWS]

MLB: Rangers-Cardinals Preview

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8)

Once a longshot to even reach the postseason, the St. Louis Cardinals are off to a good start in the quest for their 11th World Series title.

The Cardinals look to build on their first series-opening victory of the postseason Thursday night against the Texas Rangers in Game 2 of the World Series at Busch Stadium.

After losing Game 1 of both the NL division and championship series, St. Louis got a tiebreaking pinch-hit single from Allen Craig in the sixth inning and held on for a 3-2 win over Texas on Wednesday.

A club that was 10 1/2 games out of a playoff spot Aug. 25, the Cardinals now have history on their side. The Game 1 winner has won 12 of the last 14 World Series titles. St. Louis won Game 1 on the road en route to a five-game series victory over Detroit for its last title in 2006.

The team hosting Game 1 has won 20 of the last 25 World Series.

"It's huge having homefield advantage," said Craig, 4 for 8 with four RBIs in his last five postseason games. "We did a great job of getting that first win and we have to do the same (Thursday). We need to win these games at home."

On a damp, windy night, each team was held to six hits Wednesday. Lance Berkman's two-run single gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead in the fourth before Texas tied it on a two-run homer from Mike Napoli an inning later.

Craig then delivered his third hit in five postseason pinch-hit appearances.

"It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out," Berkman said. "But I feel like we have to win the National League-style games if we're going to win this thing. We'll see what happens when we add the DH and go to the American League ballpark."

Former St. Louis area prep star and NLCS MVP David Freese, who scored the tiebreaking run, is 18 for 39 (.462) with four homers and 14 RBIs during an 11-game postseason hitting streak.

Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre each had two hits for the Rangers, who will try to avoid losing the first two games of the World Series for the second straight year.

"Last year's World Series is completely out of our memory bank," said infielder Michael Young, who went 0 for 4 in Game 1. "That has nothing to do with what we're doing now."

Texas, which hit .190 while losing to San Francisco in five games last year, cooled off after totaling 27 runs and 38 hits in the final three games of the ALCS. The Rangers hope to bounce back against Jaime Garcia (0-2, 5.74 ERA), who makes his first World Series appearance for the Cardinals.

Though the left-hander is 0-1 with a 3.09 ERA in two postseason starts at home this month, Garcia went 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA in 15 starts at Busch during the regular season. That's a big reason manager Tony La Russa set up his rotation for Garcia to pitch Games 2 and 6 at home.

"You don't have a lot of information with a guy like Jaime, who's in his second year. The one thing you do have is he's pitched well at home, so you go with that," La Russa said. "When you're trying to find an edge, that's one of the angles you play."

Garcia plans to take the same approach to this outing as he did in his previous postseason starts.

"You just go out there and don't put too much pressure on yourself and just basically you have to focus on what you can control, that's it," Garcia said.

The site of this contest makes no difference to Texas manager Ron Washington, who will start Colby Lewis (1-1, 3.86). The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA in six career postseason starts.

"It's not anything I look at because at this point I trust every one of my guys," Washington said.

Both of Lewis' previous playoff starts in 2011 came on the road. His only World Series start last season came at home, where he allowed two runs in 7 2-3 innings of a 4-2 win over San Francisco in Game 3.

Lewis, 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 17 road starts during the regular season, is not concerned about pitching at Busch Stadium for the first time with so much on the line.

"I'm not really worried about it," he said. "It's just adapting. With the weather, stadiums, you just adapt to it and go have fun."

Berkman is 2 for 12 with four strikeouts versus Lewis, but went 2 for 4 in Game 1. He's 7 for 17 with eight RBIs in five career World Series games.

Napoli has hit .325 (13 for 40) with two homers and seven RBIs this postseason.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bet

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8)

After Game 1, offense was supposed to take over in the World Series, but we don’t see it that way.

These two clubs are managing tight baseball and neither the weather nor Thursday’s umpire will do anything to help over bettors.

Meteorologists are expecting another cold one for Game 2 with temperatures hovering in the mid-40s to go along with winds blowing from left field to first base. But maybe more importantly, Greg Gibson is expected to be behind the plate calling balls and strikes.

Gibson has watched the under to go a ridiculous 21-9 this season with an average of 7.62 runs scored per game. Each of his last three games calling balls and strikes have played under and if you’re looking for a bigger sample size, the under is 42-13-6 in his last 61 games.

Meanwhile, Texas’ Colby Lewis was clutch in the playoffs last season and this could be the start that Jaime Garcia puts it all together in front of the home crowd, where he owns a 2.55 ERA this season – more than two runs lower than his road ERA.

"He's pitched well at home, so you go with that," Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa said. "There isn't any reason why he can't pitch well on the road. He's got that kind of composure. But when you're trying to find an edge, that's one of the angles you play."

There are lots of angles in play here, but we feel they’re pointing to the under.

PICK: Under

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Capitals and Flyers Battle For Eastern Supremacy
By Adam Kimelman


Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers (-130, 5.5)
CAPITALS (5-0-0) at FLYERS (4-0-1)

TV: NHL NETWORK-US, CSN-DC, CSN-PH

SEASON SERIES: This is the first of four meetings between the teams this season. They split four games last season, with each game needing more than 60 minutes to decide -- two went to overtime, two to shootouts. In their most recent meeting, Washington won a 5-4 shootout in Philadelphia on March 22. The Caps took a 3-0 lead in the second, but the Flyers responded with four straight to lead 4-3 late in the third. Marcus Johansson scored with 3:19 left to tie the game, and Alexander Semin scored the winner in the penalty-shot tiebreaker.

BIG STORY: The Capitals have started the season with five straight wins for the first time in franchise history. The Flyers are unbeaten in regulation (4-0-1).

TEAM SCOPE:

CAPITALS: The only healthy player missing from Washington's practice Wednesday was team captain Alex Ovechkin, but coach Bruce Boudreau assured reporters the star scorer isn't injured.

"He's got some bumps and bruises right now," Boudreau told reporters. "It was more of a maintenance day with two more games this week. Just told him to take it off and get some stretching done."

The Washington Post reported Boudreau said the "bumps and bruises" were not related to slashes Ovechkin took on the right hand, one in the third period of the opener against Carolina, and another in the third period against Tampa Bay on Oct. 10.

In five games, Ovechkin has 1 goal and 2 assists.

FLYERS: When you score 19 goals in five games, that production tends to come from all sorts of places. Tuesday against Ottawa, it came from some of their younger players. Four rookies -- Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Harrison Zolnierczyk and Zac Rinaldo -- combined for 3 goals and 5 assists in the 7-2 victory.

Couturier and Zolnierczyk each scored their first NHL goals -- the first time two Flyers scored their first career goals in the same game since Justin Williams and Petr Hubacek did it Oct. 5, 2000 against Vancouver -- while Read had 1 goal and 3 assists.

Read could be the biggest surprise of the group. A 25-year-old undrafted free agent out of Bemidji State, Read earned a spot on the third line to start the season and is tied with Buffalo's Luke Adam for the rookie scoring lead with 6 points. He's seen time at the point on the power play, and he's fourth among all rookies in shorthanded ice time per game, at 3:08.

"I wouldn't say it's easy," Read told CSNPhilly.com Tuesday night. "This is the NHL and nothing comes easy. You just got to work hard. I felt good tonight and had a couple bounces."

WHO'S HOT: Capitals center Nicklas Backstrom has 4 points in his last three games, and leads the team with 6 points. … Flyers defenseman Chris Pronger has points in five straight games, his longest scoring streak since scoring in five straight Jan. 3-12, 2010.

INJURY REPORT: Capitals goalie Michal Neuvirth is out with a bruised right foot, and defenseman Jay Beagle remained off the ice with a suspected concussion dating to his fight with Pittsburgh's Arron Asham last week. … Flyers forward Andreas Nodl is questionable with a lower-body injury.

STAT PACK: The Capitals have gotten a goal from 10 different players this season, more than all but four teams. One of those teams is the Flyers, who have gotten goals from 12 different players. Tampa Bay leads the League with a goal from 13 players.

PUCK DROP: Many experts pegged Brayden Schenn as the favorite for the Calder Trophy this season, and after starting 2011-12 in the AHL, Schenn will get a chance to prove those people right.

The Flyers called Schenn up from their farm team, the Adirondack Phantoms, after the forward had 4 goals and 8 points in four games, tying him for third in the AHL in both categories.

To make room for Schenn -- and Jody Shelley, who served the final game of his suspension Tuesday -- Rinaldo and Zolnierczyk were sent to the AHL.

The question now is where Schenn plays. One option could be forming an all-rookie third line, with Schenn going to left wing on a line with Couturier and Read. That would push Scott Hartnell to the fourth line, with Maxime Talbot and Shelley. Hartnell saw time with Talbot during Tuesday's game against Ottawa.

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Thursday’s Best NHL Bets

Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers (-130, 5.5)

Sure it’s still very, very early in the NHL season, but how good do the Caps and Flyers look?

Neither has suffered a regulation loss and the two clubs look like they have a chance to run up the score every night. But as far as the Capitals are concerned, they aren’t getting too far ahead of themselves.

"Quite frankly, when it comes to April and May, I'm not going to be able to sit here and say, 'Hey, we were 5-0 and got that record. Isn't that great?' It's not going to really hold a lot of weight," coach Bruce Boudreau said of the team’s strong start. "It's nice, but it's just a process of getting to where we want to get."

And to get where they want to get, they may end up going through Philly in the playoffs. The Flyers have been absolutely potent on the power play so far, scoring seven times with the man advantage over the last three games, but if the Caps can stay out of the penalty box, we like their chances.

Tomas Vokoun seems to be settling in and picked up his first shutout of the season on Tuesday and will have to be just as good Thursday.

PICK: Washington


Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche (+120, 5.5)

This young Avalanche team may be a lot better than anybody expected this season, but there’s no need to get carried away.

So far Semyon Varlamov has been stealing the show in between the pipes and the team’s young forwards are meshing well with a number of fast, forechecking lines that pressure the opposition’s defensive pairings.

"This is really impressive after the loss at home," Milan Hejduk told reporters after Monday’s win over Toronto. "We've come back with five straight. It's great for a young team. It builds up the confidence, and we are looking forward to playing more games. We are getting the goaltending and scoring goals when we need them.”

But let’s not forget how inconsistent Varlamov has been in the past and how much the rest of this Avalanche club has to learn.

The Blackhawks are flying under the radar a bit this season and sniper Marian Hossa is back in the mix. They’ll give the Avalanche a good run here.

PICK: Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Betting Tips: LSU Suspensions Move Line

WEATHER TO WATCH

It looks as though we’re in for another brisk one for Game 2 of the World Series. Meteorologists were predicting temperatures in the mid-40s with 18 mph winds blowing from left field to first base as of Wednesday evening.

WHO'S HOT

MLB: St. Louis is 4-1 in Jaime Garcia’s last five home starts.

NCAAF: UAB has covered the number in four straight games.

NCAAF: The over is 9-4 in Arizona’s last 13 games.

NHL: Vancouver has won five of its last seven meetings with Nashville.

WHO'S NOT

MLB: The over is 0-5 in Colby Lewis’ last five interleague starts for Texas.

NCAAF: Central Florida is 1-5 against the spread in its last six road games.

NCAAF: UCLA is 8-20 against the spread in its last 28 overall.

NHL: Los Angeles is 8-22-2 in its last 32 games in Phoenix.

KEY STAT

62.7 – Teams that won the opening game of the World Series have gone on to win 62.7 percent of the Fall Classics.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Jerome Harrison, Detroit Lions - A trade between the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles that involved backup running backs Ronnie Brown and Jerome Harrison was voided Wednesday due to Harrison's health issues. The Lions had acquired Brown from the Eagles on Tuesday in exchange for Harrison and an undisclosed draft pick. Brown, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 draft, has rushed 13 times for 38 yards and had an embarrassing fumble against the San Francisco 49ers. Harrison, who played for the Eagles last season, has 14 carries for 41 yards this season.

GAME OF THE DAY

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"We know we're not playing well and we know other teams are licking their chops to play us right now. We have to face it head on, get better and improve." – Ottawa Senators forward Jason Spezza after a players-only meeting on Wednesday. The Sens gave up four goals in the second period during a 7-2 blowout loss to the Flyers on Tuesday and are back in action Thursday against Winnipeg.

TIPS AND NOTES

Newly acquired quarterback Carson Palmer is expected to start Sunday for the Oakland Raiders against the Kansas City Chiefs, ESPN reported Wednesday. The Raiders acquired Palmer on Tuesday from the Cincinnati Bengals for a pair of high draft picks. He was not expected to be made the starter this weekend, especially with the Raiders heading into their bye next week. The Raiders (4-2) may have made their decision Tuesday, when Palmer took the field and threw the ball. "He walked out on the field yesterday and everybody kind of looked at everybody and said, 'You know what? This is a real quarterback,'" Raiders offensive coordinator Al Saunders said. Should Palmer start Sunday, he would be going against Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, his good friend and former teammate at USC. Oakland's other option is backup journeyman Kyle Boller, with rookie Terrelle Pryor behind him.

Louisiana State running back Spencer Ware, fellow sophomore cornerback Tyrann Mathieu and defensive back Therold Simon were suspended for Saturday's game against Auburn for undisclosed reasons. The Tigers were set around -23 but many books have pulled the line since the news came out. Others have LSU around -21. The Daily Reveille, which is the school's student newspaper, noted that the suspensions were due to failing a drug test and that they could be for more than just one game. Ware leads the top-ranked Tigers with 512 yards rushing and six touchdowns. He will be replaced by Michael Ford and Alfred Blue. Mathieu has forced six turnovers and scored a pair of touchdowns while on defense and special teams. Simon has 29 tackles and one interception this season.

David Krejci told the Boston Globe that he is "50/50" to play in Thursday's game against the Northeast Division rival Toronto Maple Leafs. The Boston Bruins' center has missed his team's last three games with a core injury. Krejci suffered the injury while doing 5-on-5 drills last week during practice. The 25-year-old Krejci did go through drills on Wednesday with Jordan Caron, Benoit Pouliot and Rich Peverley. Krejci has one goal in three games this season for the Bruins, who are set as early -175 favorites.

[Mr. IWS]

UCLA at Arizona: What Bettors Need To Know

UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-4, 62)

THE STORY: It was only a matter of time that Arizona’s failures would cost coach Mike Stoops his job. After five straight losses the ax fell a week ago, ending Stoops’ 7½ years with the program. Stoops had some success but lately failed to maintain the program’s image, the Desert Swarm defense. Arizona ranks last in the Pac-12 in just about every important defensive category. Defensive coordinator Tim Kish makes his interim-coaching debut against Rick Neuheisel, another coach on the hot seat, when Arizona hosts UCLA in a nationally-televised conference battle in the Desert Thursday night.

TV: ESPN

LINE MOVES: The Wildcats opened as 3.5-point favorites and have climbed as high as 4.5 The total opened at 61.5 and has risen to 62.

ABOUT UCLA (3-3, 2-1 Pac-12, 1-5 ATS): The Bruins have done more flip-flopping than a GOP presidential candidate lately. Unsettled at quarterback, the Bruins have gone back-and-forth with Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut. That rotation has certainly come to an end following the broken leg Brehaut suffered last game. Prince will be back under center against the Wildcats after leading UCLA to a come-from-behind 28-25 win over Washington State in its last outing. But no matter who’s throwing the ball, the Bruins would like to run behind Johnathan Franklin (2,092 career yards) and Derrick Coleman, who have powered UCLA to the 28th best rushing attack in the country. They’ve scored at least one rushing TD in 12 straight games.

ABOUT ARIZONA (1-5, 0-4 Pac-12, 2-4 ATS): The Wildcats seemed headed toward the top of the conference after starting last season 7-1. But since then Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games. A 37-27 setback to a then-winless Oregon State team on Oct. 8 proved to be Stoops’ last stand. The Wildcats have beaten UCLA the last three times in the desert and still have a solid offense led by quarterback Nick Foles and his talented receivers. Foles has thrown for 2,250 yards on the season, second best in the nation, and 15 touchdowns. Arizona’s running-game, however, is a mess, a victim of a young offensive line. It ranks next-to-last in the country averaging just 71 yards a game.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Arizona defeated UCLA 29-21 last season in a game played at the Rose Bowl. The Wildcats have won the last four in the series.

2. Explosive Wildcat WR Juron Criner is questionable with a knee sprain.

3. The Wildcats have surrendered at least 37 points in its last five games.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Arizona.

PREDICTION: Arizona 31, UCLA 28 -- Don’t expect too much defense in this one, but Foles should be able to carve up the Bruins in the air in a tight contest at Tucson.

[Mr. IWS]

Central Florida at UAB: What Bettors Need To Know

Central Florida Knights at UAB Blazers (+16, 44.5)

The winless Blazers host the Knights for a Thursday night, C-USA showdown at Legion Field. Alabama-Birmingham has just one win over UCF in their last seven meetings and is 2-5 against the spread in that span, going back to 2001.

LINE MOVES

Oddsmakers opened with the home side set as a two-touchdown underdog, with money on UCF pushing the spread as high as 16.5. The total opened at 44 and has climbed as high as 45.5.

KNIGHT AND DAY

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA: Central Florida boasts one of the best defenses in the country, currently ranked No. 3 in yards allowed and passing defense. However, that stop unit took one on the chin in last week’s 38-17 loss to Southern Methodist.

The Knights allowed SMU to pass for 358 yards and two touchdowns through the air – the most amount of passing yardage allowed to a conference foe since facing Houston in 2009.

"This is very frustrating because we're not used to this," cornerback Josh Robinson told the Central Florida Future. "We expect more out of our defense."

Luckily for UCF, the Blazers passing game isn’t as potent as SMU’s. Alabama-Birmingham puts up just over 209 passing yards per game and has a TD-to-INT count of 2-to-8 this season.

Blazers quarterback Bryan Ellis threw two scores and two picks in his return from a concussion in a 37-20 loss to Tulsa last weekend. Ellis had been out since September 24, with backup Jonathan Perry under center in his absence.

DEAD WITHOUT SHED

ABOUT UAB: The Blazers will be without leading rusher Pat Shed Thursday. He injured his knee in the loss to Tulsa last week and will definitely not play against the Knights.

Shed leads UAB with 223 yards on the ground and one touchdown. He’s also caught the ball 23 times for 146 yards receiving.

Sophomore running back Greg Franklin will get the majority of carries in his place. Franklin has rushed 20 times for 129 yards this season.

QB CONTROVERSY

There is trouble brewing in Orlando at the quarterback position.

Starter Jeff Godfrey is under fire for his run-first mentality, with the local media and UCF faithful believing redshirt freshman Blake Bortles is the better fit for the Knights' pocket-passing schemes, and that the speedy Godfrey should be moved to receiver.

Godfrey is passing for 186.3 yards an outing while rushing for a total of 224 yards and eight touchdowns – the most of any QB in C-USA. He passed for 231 yards versus SMU, throwing one touchdown before giving way to Bortles, who went 9 for 12 for 118 yards and a score. The combined 349 yards passing was the most from UCF since 2003.

Bortles is also the prototypical QB, standing 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, while Godfrey is only 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds soaking wet. However, despite the brewing controversy, UCF head coach George O'Leary confirmed that this is still Godfrey’s team.

"Jeff made a lot of good throws and made some yards with his feet," O'Leary told reporters. "But Blake has more opportunity to throw down the field. We have to sit down and see what the best situation for our team. But we have to get Blake in more often."

Alabama-Birmingham shouldn’t be too much of a test for whichever QB is calling the plays Thursday. The Blazers rank 111th in the land in pass defense, giving up an average of 292.2 yards through the air.

SPREAD IT ON

There is betting value in an 0-6 Blazers squad, especially up against a UCF team that is 0-4 ATS in their last four outings.

Despite a big zero in the win column, UAB has covered the spread the last four games, facing an average spread of nearly +18 in that stretch. The Blazers have dropped the last four games by an average margin of 10.25 points.

But a short week of practice may slow down the money train for UAB backers. In their last six Thursday contests, the Blazers are only 1-4-1 ATS.

"It's kind of an awkward week with preparation all around," head coach Neil Callaway told the media. "Technically, today is Thursday in terms of game preparation. We did a little more just because of time. We'll come back out tomorrow and treat it pretty much like a Friday."

Callaway is on the hot seat at Alabama-Birmingham after the team’s poor start. He’s 15-38 since taking over the Blazers in 2007. Plenty of fans are calling for his job heading into this Thursday’s action.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Knights are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.
* Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best CFB Bets

UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-4, 62)

This is a big, big game for the Bruins, who are still searching for the minimum of three wins required to make it to a bowl game this year. Head Coach Rick Neuheisel’s job probably depends on it, and that’s a scary proposition to be in with as many injuries as this team has. The biggest injury is the one to QB Richard Brehaut. Brehaut took over for an injured QB Kevin Prince twice, once in each of the past two seasons, but he had settled into the starting role before getting knocked out, possibly for the season with a leg injury two weeks ago against the Washington State Cougars. Prince rallied the team and came up with a big time victory at home, but this is going to be a bigger challenge on the road against a hungry and talented Arizona team. UCLA has only scored more than 28 points once this season, and that was a game that was lost at the Houston Cougars. Without getting past that number in this one though, it could be a long, long game.

Arizona has dismissed Head Coach Mike Stoops, as they have now lost 10 straight games against FBS teams dating back to last season. Still, we know that not all is lost for the Wildcats, as this has been a brutal, brutal schedule to start the season. Sure, there was no excuse to lose a week and a half ago to the Oregon State Beavers, but that is all in the past now, and the new regime knows that there is still a good chance to make a bowl game this year. Not only is the schedule significantly easier on the way out (after all, the Cats have already played USC, Oregon, and Stanford this year), but this is still a team that has a heck of a lot of talent on it. It was only last year at this time that we were wondering if QB Nick Foles was going to be a Heisman Trophy candidate or not, and he still has some great weapons to spread the ball around to. The question is whether this defense, which ranks No. 117 in the nation, is going to be able to pick up the slack just a little bit to help out the offense.

UCLA Bruins @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: In the end, Arizona is probably the better of these two teams. The Cats will put points up in bunches, and we’re just not all that sure that UCLA is going to be able to do the same.

PICK: Arizona -4


Central Florida Knights at UAB Blazers (+16, 44.5)

UCF and UAB have both had very disappointing starts to the season. The Knights were expected to be one of the teams to beat in Conference USA, but they are just 3-3. UAB wasn’t expected to be great, but not many people expected them to be winless through six games. There is still a little bit of time to get the season turned around, but both of these teams realize they need to get back on the winning track this week. UCF dominated the Blazers 42-7 last year, but this game will be played in Birmingham.

The Knights of Central Florida had a couple tough losses against FIU and BYU earlier this year. Last week’s 38-17 blowout loss at the hands of Houston was a very humbling game for this team. This is a team that put its program on the map last year with an important Liberty Bowl win over the Georgia Bulldogs. They still have a great deal of talent, but they seem to have taken a step back so far this year.

Jeff Godfrey is nice dual-threat quarterback, but he needs to develop more as a passer. Godfrey is completing 68% of his passes, but the Knights almost never throw the ball downfield, which allows the defense to sit on the running game or the short passing game. To say that UCF is stacked at the running back position is really an understatement. Brynn Harvey, Ronnie Weaver, and Latavius Murray would all be starters for most teams. The Knights defense has been great this year. UCF is third in the nation in total defense, and this defense allows only 14.9 points per game.

UAB wasn’t a great team last year, but they did win four games. The Blazers haven’t necessarily been way off in the last few games, but they just can’t seem to make the winning play when it counts most. UAB actually led Mississippi State 3-0 at halftime, and they fell by just one point against Troy. This team has been bad on both sides of the football, and there is room for improvement just about everywhere.

The Blazers have had Bryan Ellis and Jonathan Perry split time under center this season. Combined, the two have thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Pat Shed, who had a successful season last year, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry in 2011. Defensively, this team has been terrible this year. The Blazers are 118th out of 120 teams in total defense. UAB is allowing 33 points per game this year.

UCF may not have played up to their potential yet this year, but their defense is terrific. I don’t think UAB will be able to get much of anything going in this one. I expect UCF to cover the number, but my favorite play here is the under.

PICK: Under 45

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

UCLA at Arizona

The Wildcats look to take advantage of a UCLA team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. Arizona is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/18)

Game 303-304: Central Florida at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 86.816; UAB 68.785 Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 18; 42 Vegas Line: Central Florida by 15; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-15); Under

Game 305-306: UCLA at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 85.219; Arizona 92.767 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 7 1/2; 57 Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 61 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Texas at St. Louis

The Rangers look to bounce back from last night's Game 1 loss and build on their 13-3 record in Colby Lewis' last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Texas is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 953-954: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 16.381; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.362 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB

Thursday, October 20, 2011
Pacific-12 Conference
ARIZONA 34, Ucla 33
Conference USA
Ucf 28, UAB 14

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

736- 542 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Thurs: UNDER Minn.Wild under the total