10-20-11

[Mr. IWS]

SuperSportsGroup

UCF v. UAB 8pm

PICK: UCF -14.5 Game Hidden Gem
PICK: UCF -7.5 1H

UCLA v. Arizona 9pm

PICK: OVER 62 Game Hidden Gem
PICK: OVER 31 1H

[Mr. IWS]

PowerPlayWins 10/20



Arizona -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Texas Rangers -115

50* UCF -16

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster

5* Diamond Pick Arizona -3

5* Diamond Pick Rutgers +2

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Thursday

Play Texas (-110) over St. Louis (Top MLB Play)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Colby Lewis has won 9 of the last 12 games coming off a team loss and he has an ERA of 3.47 in road games this season.


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NHL Hockey Thursday

Play Vancouver (-175) over Nashville (Top NHL Play)

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

19-8-1 run

ucla/arz over 61 (buy 1/2 pt )

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions
Kevin

Texas Rangers @ St Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (+110)
(Note: I'm risking 1 unit to win 1.10 units)

Last night Carpenter went 6 innings allowing 2 runs, and the bullpen came in and got 3 shutout innings for the win. I really like how the Cardinals played last night, and I like them again as underdogs tonight. On the mound we will see Colby Lewis for the Rangers and Jaime Garcia for the Cardinals. Colby Lewis has had two starts this postseason, with a 3.86 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .262 opponents batting average. In his ALCS start against the Tigers he went just 5.2 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs (including two homeruns). He does have good numbers in his career postseason starts, including a win in last years World Series, but will face a very tough Cardinals lineup. Jaime Garcia is 0-2 over three starts this postseason, with a 5.74 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .297 opponents batting average. He had a quality start against the Phillies, but struggled in the NLCS. He was great at home this season, going 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA at Busch Stadium. Take note that the Rangers are just 7-17 in Lewis' last 24 road starts vs a team with a winning record, and 4-9 in his last 13 starts when he is a small favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 11-1 in Garcia's last 12 home starts vs a team with a winning record, and 17-4 in his last 21 starts vs a team with a winning record overall. The Cardinals are also 4-1 in Garcia's last 5 home starts. I think we have a slight pitching edge to the Cardinals because this game is being played in St Louis. Cardinals play tough at home, and I like them in this spot as an underdog. Take the Cards at +110 for 1 unit.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Rangers +106 over CALGARY

The Rangers got off to a slow start after two OT losses in Europe to the Ducks and Kings followed by a loss to the Islanders. They played in Vancouver on Tuesday and were dominated in the first two periods but woke up in the third, scored some sweet goals and ended up winning 4-0 in front of the magnificent goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist. As it turns out the Ducks, Kings and Islanders are all off to good starts with a combined record of 10-4. That win Tuesday was a good one for the Rangers and could certainly get them going, as they, too, are a very decent club and a serious contender to win their division. The Flames are not decent and will be one of the more beatable clubs in the league. NHL teams look for young, speedy and talented players nowadays but the Flames are loaded with aging, slow and once gifted NHL players. In any case, wagering against the favored Flames is a winning proposition over time and after the Rangers picked up their morale-boosting first win of the year on Tuesday, this one has even more appeal. Play: N.Y. Rangers +106 (Risking 2 units).

BOSTON -½ -102 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs have picked up nine out of a possible 10 points thus far. We were feeling pretty sick last night when they were down 3-1 in the third to the Jets. Toronto was –175 favorite and we were watching from the rail (had no bet on it). Lo and behold, the Leafs scored a lucky goal followed by another one 27 seconds later and subsequently won it in a shootout. We would’ve been sicker had we bet the Jets. The Leafs have beaten Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary and Winnipeg and combined that quartet is 5-16. That’s right, five wins and 16 losses and the Leafs really didn’t outplay any of them. The Bruins are a misleading 2-4. They’ve run into some hot goaltending but they’ve played hard in every game and those efforts will be rewarded soon. Boston lost its cool in their last game against Carolina, a 4-1 loss in which they were clearly the dominant team. It was actually a good experience for them, as they were reminded that they are now the hunted and every team is gunning for them. The Bruins will regroup, clear their heads and come out even more focused and determined for this one. The Bruins are not a 2-4 team and the Maple Leafs are not a 4-0-1 team. The Leafs are a poor hockey team with a horrible defense and two guys that are scoring. Justice gets served up here. Play: Boston -½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

VANCOUVER -½ -102 over Nashville

The Preds really have a whole new look this season and it’s not for the better. They have about eight guys on the squad with very little NHL experience and making close to minimum wage. Nashville won its first two game over Columbus and St. Louis and they were the second best team on the ice in both games. They’ve subsequently lost three straight to the Devils, Coyotes and Oilers and in those three losses they’ve scored five times. This is a team in trouble and they couldn’t have picked a worse time to play in Vancouver. Roberto Luongo was practically booed off the ice in the Canucks lost to the Rangers on Tuesday. The Canucks have two wins in six games but they probably should have five wins. They outshout the Rangers 40-19. They lost 5-4 in Philly but were once again the better team and on opening night they outplayed the Penguins but lost that one too. The Canucks are once again an elite team and instead of giving in to fan pressure to play Corey Schneider, coach Vigneault is coming right back with Luongo. The players and goalie will dig down deep tonight and this vastly superior host should put away this beatable and badly flawed intruder. Play: Nashville -½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

N.Y. Islanders +133 over TAMPA BAY

Until the Lightning show us something different, we’ll continue to fade them when taking back a tag. TB has lost five in a row and has allowed 25 goals over that span. Of course they’ll be looking to fix that but you can’t fix something when you don’t have the parts. Defensively, the Bolts are weak and slow and not only does that prevent them from allowing the opposition to score, it prevents them from moving the puck out efficiently and creating chances. The Islanders come in feeling great with three wins in four games. One of those wins came against these same Bolts by a score of 5-1. The Islanders have outscored the opposition 9-3 over their past two games and it’s no surprise. This is a team brimming with confidence and loaded with offensive talent. They’ve looked progressively better in each game and what we get here is hot vs. cold taking back some weight and that right there is value. Play: N.Y. Islanders +133 (Risking 2 units).


SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS +108 over Texas

Just like we saw in last year’s World Series, Ranger manager Ron Washington looked lost. With a leadoff hit to begin the game, Washington put the steal sign on for the speedy Ian Kinsler and he was thrown out by two feet. With runners on first and third and two out in the seventh, and with a whole slew of pinch-hitters available, Washington asked Esteban Germán to grab a bat. Germán last AB was Sept 25th and he promptly struck out on three pitches. Ron Washington wins games when his team scores eight runs. In a close game with crucial decisions to make, he’s clueless. Enter Colby Lewis. Lewis returned from Japan to become a Texas rotation fixture in 2010. Lewis has been unable to repeat his 2010 stats and skills in 2011. Fly-ball pitcher Lewis has allowed an increased fly-ball rate this year and has been less fortunate with hr/f than in 2010. A FB% increase from an already-high flyball rate is unlikely to lead to success. His considerable strikeout rate decline has resulted in more balls-in-play, making Lewis' increased hr/f more problematic than it would have been had he maintained his 2010 strikeout rate. Lewis outperformed his xERA in 2010, but is on the wrong side of a more sizable ERA/xERA gap in 2011. Despite solid base skills, Lewis profiles as an ERA risk due to his fly-ball tendencies and declining KO rate. Lewis has surrendered three jacks in his two post-season starts over 11 frames and his ERA in the postseason thus far is 5.50. Dave Duncan will not hesitate for a second to inform the Genius to get Jamie Garcia out of the game as soon as Garcia shows signs of trouble. Garcia has been absolutely tremendous the first and second time through line-ups this whole season and gets into serious trouble the third time through. LaRussa will not leave him in there to get into trouble. Garcia is an extreme ground-ball pitcher (58% over the past month and 54% on the year) and anytime we can get an extreme groundballer over an extreme flyballer, you can pencil us in every time. Throw in the managerial mismatch and the roll the Cardinals are on and this one becomes a must play. Wrong side favored. Play: St. Louis +108 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (NHL)
NHL 208-168 Last 376 picks +$6990
1 OF 5
Game: Chicago at Colorado (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago -130 (moneyline)

The Colorado Avalanche have sure played inside out. They opened the season at home, and were blanked by the Red Wings, then went out on the road and won five straight games - the first time in franchise history. They return home tonight against the Chicago Blackhawks who are also out of the gate strong and are looking to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Blackhawks should be toting their "A" game here, as last year they faced a home-and-home situation vs. the Avalanche and were beaten in both games. They will face the Avalanche once again in a home-and-home starting tonight. The Blackhawks have followed a great effort on the defensive end and in the net very strong, as they are now 59-29 in a game following a matchup where they allowed 2 goals or fewer. Colorado may be winning, but this team has sure had a lot of problems putting one in the win column vs. a winning team, where they are a pathetic 5-24 in their last 29 vs. a winning team. Chicago gets revenge, so play on them here.

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

NHL
N.Y. Rangers +106 over CALGARY

BOSTON -½ -102 over Toronto

VANCOUVER -½ -102 over Nashville

N.Y. Islanders +133 over TAMPA BAY

MLB
ST. LOUIS +108 over Texas

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

7-unit MLB Playoff Game of the Year
TEXAS/ST LOUIS OVER

[Mr. IWS]

WEST CAPPER
(directly from the west capper email)

MLB YTD: +95.4 UNITS

POSTSEASON SO FAR: 21-6 (+28.05 UNITS)

• SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Tigers to win series vs Yankees +120 (WINNER, +2.40 UNITS)
• SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Brewers to win series vs DBacks -170 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Rays/Rangers under 8.5 runs (LOSS, -2.2 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 3: 1* Rays/Rangers over 8 runs (LOSS, -1.1 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 3: 2** Tigers -125 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 4: 1* Rays -105 (LOSS, -1.05 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 4: 2** Rangers/Rays under 8.5 runs (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 6: 2** Tigers/Yankees under 9.5 runs (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 7: 1* Brewers/Dbacks under 7.5 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 7: 1* Cardinals/Phillies under 7 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 10: 3*** Rangers -140 (WINNER, +3.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 10: 1* Rangers/Tigers over 9 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 11: 1* Tigers -140 (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 11: 2** Tigers/Rangers under 9 runs (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 12: 3*** Rangers -120 (WINNER, +3.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 12: 2** Cardinals/Brewers over 7 runs (PUSH)
• OCTOBER 13: 3*** Tigers -150 (WINNER, +3.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 13: 1* Rangers/Tigers under 7 runs (LOSS, -1.10 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 13: 1* Brewers +120 (WINNER, +1.20 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 13: 1* Brewers/Cardinals under 8.5 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 14: 1* Cardinals -140 (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 14: 1* Brewers/Cardinals under 7.5 runs (LOSS, -1.10 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 15: 2** Rangers -145 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 15: 1* Tigers/Rangers over 9 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNIT)
• OCTOBER 16: 1* Cardinals/Brewers over 8.5 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 19: 1* Rangers +100 (LOSS, -1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 19: 1* Rangers/Cardinals under 7.5 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
• OCTOBER 19: 2** Rangers to win World Series -160 (PENDING...)
• OCTOBER 19: 0.5* Rangers to win in 6 games +250 (PENDING...)

• RANGERS @ CARDINALS

Winning game one was big for the Cardinals, as the last 10 teams to win game one of the WS at home have gone on to win the series, and 19 of the past 23 series. So while game one was very important for both teams, it was a must win situation for Carpenter and the Cardinals. They couldn’t afford to lose with their ace at home, and despite him only throwing two curveballs for a strike because of his elbow, they found a way to win the game.

Colby Lewis starts tonight for the Rangers, looking to add to his 4-1, 2.37 ERA in his postseason career. He is a control pitcher that has come up big for Texas the past few years, and was 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his four postseason appearances in 2010. Lewis 2011 home/road split is drastic, as his road ERA (3.43) was more than two runs better than his home mark and he struck out nearly three more hitters per nine innings. He was much better against right handed hitters this season, having an .204 opponent’s batting average against a .274 for lefties. He doesn’t throw hard and isn’t overpowering, but he has a good sinking fastball that he throws to both sides of the plate. If he gets behind he can leave the ball up and get hit hard, but he likes to pitch backwards so getting his soft stuff over early in the count will be key for Lewis. Very few of the Cardinals have ever faced Lewis, so he is looking to improve on his recent struggles where he had a 5.23 ERA in August and September.

Jaime Garcia goes for the Cardinals, and the lefty has been outstanding at home during his career. He has a 2.41 career ERA at Busch, and this year was 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA at home with a 1.11 WHIP. He is still in search for his first postseason win, and this will be the biggest start for the young lefty in his career. He has given up 10 ER in 3 postseason starts, and can be difficult to hit the first or second time through a lineup. None of the Rangers starters have ever faced Garcia, so advantage Cardinals. Garcia throws a lot of changeups and fastballs away, and likes to use his cutter in to right handed hitters to keep them from looking changeup away. Because of his arm slot, he gets a lot of natural sink and can force hitters to beat the ball into the ground. The flip side is when he’s up in the zone, his fastball is an extremely hittable pitch. He’ll need to take a lesson from Carpenter last night and live down in the zone to have success tonight against the powerful Rangers. Texas ranked 2nd in baseball in OPS against lefties, so Garcia will have his hands full. Garcia was 2nd in the NL last year in ERA, so he is certainly capable of throwing a gem tonight.

Greg Gibson is behind home plate, and he’s a big “under” umpire. The under was 21-9 this season with Gibson behind the plate, and with temperatures expected in the 40s with wind, it could be for a tough night for the hitters again. The wind will be blowing strong from left to the first base line, which could help Garcia’s movement on his changeup and Lewis’ cutter and slider. On the flip side, Garcia might struggle with his cutter into righties with the wind, and establishing the inside to righties is key for Garcia so he can setup his changeup away.

Tonight's game offers good value, but it isn't the 4-5* bomb were are waiting for. I have one game circled in this series for that play, and assuming things line up how I hope, we will have a big one coming soon.

With a day off tomorrow and the series coming back to Arlington, the series line value is perfect for taking the Rangers. I see it listed at +120 and we already have the Rangers futures odds at -150 for 2* units, so we will add to that with a 1* unit Rangers futures bet at +120. For tonight’s game, I like the Rangers to flip this series and win this game. The Rangers haven’t lost back-to-back games over the past 42 games, and I don’t think they start now. They went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and walked 6 last night and barely lost, so tonight the pressure of an entire nation will be on Jaime Garcia’s shoulders. Take the Rangers to win (-120) for 2** units. I also lean toward the under 8 runs because of the pitchers, umpire and weather, but I'm going to lay off the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Cal Sports

5* GOY Over 8 Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Great lakes

4* Texas Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB World Series

Ben lee won on Wednesday with the Cardnials -$120/Rangers.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" is coming back with the Cardnials -$ 115/Rangers.

"Mr Chalk" is 13-5 + $555 for the 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs.