10-23-11

[timbob]

Hondo

Hondo wiped out last night with his 6-team par lay, losing the opener with Virginia, and then flop ped with the overmatched Rangers to boost the debt to a season-high 3,535 nitschkes.

Today, Mr. Aitch will try the parlay route again with the Panthers, Packers and Saints -- 20 units. Also, he expects a Dutch treat from Holland -- 20 units on the Rangers.

[timbob]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Ducks -160

[timbob]

Today's NHL Picks
Phoenix at Anaheim

The Ducks look to take advantage of an Anaheim team that is 1-6 in its last 7 road games. Anaheim is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23
Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Phoenix at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.077; Anaheim 12.416
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165); Over

[timbob]

Bookiemonsters

20-10-1 run

jets pk

[timbob]

Sharpsides Investing

dallas -13

[timbob]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:
Oakland -4 over Kansas City

[timbob]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:
Ducks -160 over Coyotes

[timbob]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Over 41 bet. Kansas City and Oakland

[timbob]

Dave Blezow
12-6 BB

Cowboys
Packers
Colts

[timbob]

Hondo

Jets
Bucs
Panthers -BB
Browns
Denver
Lions
Raiders
Pitt
Rams
Pack -BB
Saints-BB

Balt

[timbob]

Will Brinson

Panthers
Browns
Lions
Denver

Balt

[timbob]

Peter King

Chargers
Lions
Bucs
Broncos

[timbob]

Killer Sports
5* Over Pitt/Zona

The hard-working folks at MTi Sports agreed to give away their BIG totals play this week. Here it is:

5-Star Pittsburgh at Arizona OVER 43.5 – This scheduling spot has long been an OVER situation for the Cardinals. Arizona is 13-0 OU at home vs a non-divisional opponent before visiting another non-divisional opponent, flying over by an average of 13.5 ppg – more than two TDs. Each of their last four in this situation have gone over by double-digits including TWO from THIS season. The SDQL text is:

team=Cardinals and H and NDIV and n:A and n:NDIV and 20071101<=date

In addition, the Cardinals are 15-0 OU after a regulation game in which they committed at least four turnovers – as long as they are not laying MORE than 14 points. The SDQL for the latter of these two is:

4<=p:turnovers and team=Cardinals and line>=-14 and p:OT=0 and 20051101<=date

Fitting in nicely here is the fact that the Steelers have had turnover problems this season and the Cardinals are 7-0 OU since 2002 as a FG-plus underdog that has an average turnover margin of at least one season-to-date, going over by an average of 11.4 ppg.
The Steelers put it in cruise control in the second half last week against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh led 17-3 at the half, but was scoreless in the second half and won 17-13. One the road vs a more potent Cardinals’ team the Steelers will not have the luxury of sitting on the ball in the second half. Indeed, we have a system that fits this situation to a tee. Since 1991, NFL teams are a combined 14-0 OU as a FG-plus road favorite when they are off a single digit win in which they were scoreless in the second half. The SDQL text is:

1991<=season and line<=-3 and A and p:P3+p:P4=0 and 0
The last three times a team was in this situation, they scored 38, 41 and 38 points respectively. Yikes.

This system makes good handicapping sense. The Steelers were almost stunned by the Jaguars, who have one of the weakest offenses in the league – especially when they have to play from behind. You can bet they are going to keep up the offensive pressure in the second half this week.

Looking the Steelers’ trends, we find that Pittsburgh is 10-0 OU (+13.9 ppg) as a favorite the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The last four times that the Steelers were in this situation, they scored at least 30 points, including their 38-17 win over the Titans in week five – with the total at 40.

It is also worth mentioning that the Steelers are 7-0 OU (+12.0 ppg) as a road favorite the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average.

The Steelers are loaded at wide receiver and they are itching for some action after last week’s second-half walk-through. Take these two OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: Pittsburgh 31 ARIZONA 30

[timbob]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

5* LOCK = NEW ORLEANS (Sun. night)
3* = ATLANTA
3* = "UNDER" on Bears/Bucs
2* = N.Y. JETS
2* = TENNESSEE

[timbob]

DCI

Season
Straight Up: 63-24 (.724)
ATS: 50-35 (.588)
ATS Vary Units: 275-184 (.599)
Over/Under: 44-42 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 135-111 (.549)

Sunday, October 23, 2011
Seattle vs. CLEVELAND: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DETROIT 27, Atlanta 21
Houston vs. TENNESSEE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Denver vs. MIAMI: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. JETS 26, San Diego 20
TAMPA BAY 22, Chicago 20
Washington 22, Carolina 17
Pittsburgh 28, ARIZONA 12
OAKLAND 28, Kansas City 21
Green Bay 31, MINNESOTA 14
DALLAS 28, St. Louis 12
NEW ORLEANS 33, Indianapolis 21

Monday, October 24, 2011
Baltimore 30, JACKSONVILLE 9