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The Busted Bookie
5* IONA +3.5
5* E. WASHINGTON +14
5* COLORADO +9.5
5* IONA +3.5
5* E. WASHINGTON +14
5* COLORADO +9.5
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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a sports betting pick Thursday is on UAB (+23) at home to Southern Miss.
Reasoning: Southern Mississippi has had a very successful season and is a team that is obviously much better than UAB. But the Blazers had that phenomenal comeback win last week at Memphis and no matter how terrible the Tigers are that is still one of those confidence building victories. Plus it's not like tonight's home squad isn't capable as they did shock the world in the outright against Central Florida on a weeknight as a hefty 17 or so point dog.
No doubt it's asking a lot fading the Golden Eagles today as Austin Davis and company are a talented bunch that should win this game. But is Southern Miss. going to really be all that excited and lay it on the line today? They're not playing Case Keenum and Houston just yet in the championship game here and this game in Birmingham could be a little bit of a letdown. Plus it's not like UAB hasn't played major competition this season and will walk out there and be intimidated. These guys mucked it up with Florida in the opener in Gainesville, hosted Mississippi State and actually led 3-0 at the half and only lost by a measley point at Troy.
2-8 isn't a good record but the Blazers at home also aren't as bad as the oddsmaker seems to think. Look for Jonathan Perry, Greg Franklin, Jamarcus Nelson and the Blazers to be competitive and cash the ticket in the end.
Top expert pick on this game: Alabama-BirminghamComment
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Sports Wagers
N.Y. Jets –6 over DENVER PINNACLE
This one lines up nicely as the Jets were smoked by nemesis Patriots on Sunday night while Tim Tebow and the Broncos are fresh off a win over the hapless Chiefs. Perfect. The result is a reduced line and one we intend to take full advantage of. Denver may be able to compete with some of the weaker teams around the league. But with Tebow and his extreme inability to pass the football (44.8% completion rate), it is impossible to succeed against any competent teams. Tebow had one of the most incredible lines in NFL history last week as he completed just two passes in eight attempts for 56 yards, in a 17-10 victory. The key was a Kansas City team that couldn’t stop the run as the Broncos racked up 244 yards on the ground. That wouldn't work here under regular circumstances and now that both of Denver’s starting running backs are likely to miss this one, it becomes a near impossible task for Tebow to beat the Jets through the air. Off of last week’s embarrassment and with playoff hopes suddenly an issue, expect the Jets to be all business on this night. Play: N.Y. Jets –6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
NASHVILLE -½ +100 over Toronto (REG) Pinnacle
The Maple Leafs slide into irrelevance continues and until they get rid of Brian Burke and Ron Wilson, nothing will change. The Leafs possess a bunch of third line players, poor defense and shaky goaltending. They put a lot of faith into James Reimer but had no alternative plan should something go wrong. The Maple Leafs have dropped four of five with only win over that span coming against St. Louis in a game they were outshot 40-22. Toronto’s two previous wins came against Columbus and New Jersey and the only reason they won that pair is because Steve Mason and Marty Brodeur couldn’t stop a puck. The Leafs have been outscored 22-8 over their last five games and they’ll face one of the best goalies in the business here in Pekka Rinne. When the Leafs got off to that hot start it was because they played every dreg in the league not once, but twice. Now the Leafs schedule is getting tough and they're also missing a few bodies. Time for some real adversity for Toronto and once again they provide us with a great fade opportunity. Play: Nashville -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
WINNIPEG +150 over Washington Pinnacle
There’s value playing against the Caps because they’re an overpriced team almost every time they play. The Caps have been a power in this league for a long time but this year, despite a good start, they are a highly flawed team that is more beatable than ever. Coach Bruce Boudreau is percolating as we speak and he’s going to lose it at some point. The Caps are just 1-3-1 in their last five. The Jets are very familiar with this foe and will play them six times this season with this being the first game. The building will be electric tonight, as hockey fans get their first chance to see AO in action. The Jets might be the most undervalued team in the league. They’ve lost a bunch of games but yet have some really nice wins over Philly, Tampa and Pittsburgh. There's some front-line talent on this club and they get greatly energized by their fans. The Jets are coming off that nice 5-2 win over the Lightning and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. The bottom line here is value and in a game that’s a complete toss-up, taking back a tag like this is the prudent thing to do. Play: Winnipeg +150 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +109 over EDMONTON Pinnacle
Thus far the Senators are the streakiest team in league and right now they’re warming up again. Ottawa started the year out by losing five of its first six and followed that up with a six-game winning streak. They then lost five in a row before winning its last two and with that modest winning streak on the line, they catch the Oilers in a bad spot. Aside from losing three in a row and four of its last five, Edmonton returns home from a 1-4 road trip. The only win on said trip occurred in Montreal in a game they had no business winning. The Oilers have not been sharp for close to three weeks now and they’ve also allowed 15 goals against over their last three. The Sens are having a lot of fun out there. The reports are they love coming to the rink again and are genuinely enjoying each other. This is a cohesive unit with some high-end talent. Erik Karlsson is on the verge of superstar status. The Sens have a solid collection of youth and vets and once again they’re undervalued in a very favorable situation. Play: Ottawa +109 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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David Banks
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
For the second week in a row, the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-1, 3-7 ATS) will play under the Thursday Night Lights on ESPN when they welcome the division rival North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4, 4-6 ATS) into Blacksburg; kick-off from Lane Stadium is set to go live at 8:00 ET on ESPN, ESPN 3D and ESPN3.com.
It couldn’t have been pleasant being a member of the UNC football team who got shutout by the NC State Wolfpack for the first time since the 1960’s the last time they took to the gridiron. After pounding the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 49-24 as seven-point favorites in the Universities Homecoming game the week before, it came as quite the surprise to see UNC struggle throughout the game’s entirety managing just 13 first downs and 165 yards of total offense against a stop unit giving up an average of over 350 YPG heading into Week 12. Head Coach Everett Withers will have QB Bryn Renner back in the mix this week after he was sidelined during the game with a concussion vs. the Wolfpack, but the sophomore will be forced to navigate the offense against the nation’s 9th ranked scoring defense that’s allowed an average of just 16.5 PPG. North Carolina is 1-3 SU & ATS away from Chapel Hill to date, but has covered each of its L/2 as road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points.
Virginia Tech has gone on to play in the ACC Championship Game three of the last four years, and if it can tame both North Carolina and Virginia over the next two weeks, Head Coach Frank Beamer’s kids will once again represent the Coastal Division in the big game. The Hokies took one step closer towards sealing the division up last week when they went into Bobby Dodd Stadium and pulled away in the 4th quarter to secure the 37-26 road win and cover over GTECH as short two-point favorites. The win was the team’s fifth in a row since falling at home to Clemson back in Week 5. They’ll have to hit the road again next week to possibly battle Virginia for divisional honors, but up first is a North Carolina squad that defeated them at the closing gun the last time they paid a visit to Blacksburg. VTECH owns home scalps of Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Miami, and Boston College, but it failed to cover the closing pointspread in three of those match-ups making it 4-1 SU & 1-4 ATS as a host entering its 2011 home finale.
The road team has won and covered each of these division rivals L/3 meetings with the ‘under’ cashing in each contest. The Tar Heels are 18-7-1 ATS the L/26 times the offense failed to generate 275 yards or more the previous game, but they’ve also failed to cover each of their L/4 November tussles and put forth just 1-3 SU & ATS records after their L/4 byes. VTECH is a perfect 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS its L/9 November gridiron battles, but came up short in covering each of the L/5 times it went off the board a chalk of 10.5-points or more.
PICK: NC/Virginia Tech UNDERComment
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