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Al DeMarco Thursday's Play 5 dime pick on the New York Jets minus the points at Denver agaitst the Broncos. As I release this selectaion at 10:15 AM Pacific, the Jets are currently -6 to -6 1/2 in Las Vegas and offshore at the majoroty of books I've checked with the lower number spotted more frequently. There's also a -7 out there at that one sportsbook offshore where you always seemingly pay an extra half-point for a chalk. Great place to play dogs, but obviously not favorites.
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Al DeMarco Thursday's Play 5 dime pick on the New York Jets minus the points at Denver agaitst the Broncos. As I release this selectaion at 10:15 AM Pacific, the Jets are currently -6 to -6 1/2 in Las Vegas and offshore at the majoroty of books I've checked with the lower number spotted more frequently. There's also a -7 out there at that one sportsbook offshore where you always seemingly pay an extra half-point for a chalk. Great place to play dogs, but obviously not favorites.Comment
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Anthony Redd
Thursday's Card
100 Dime selection on Texas A&M as the favortte against Mississippi State. As this play is released at 7:30 am Pacific, Texas A&M is currently laying 4 1/2 points here in Vegas and offshore.
50 Dime selection on NY Jets as the road favorite against the Broncos. The Jets are curreantly laying 6 points here in Vegas and offshore.
25 Dime selection on the UNDER in the Jets-Broncos game. The total is currently sitoing at 40 here in Vegas and offshore.Comment
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Chuck O'Brien Thursday's Play... My 25 Dime Winner is gotng to be on OVER North Carolina/Virginia Tech, covering tonight's ACC showdown in an 8 p.m. kickoff. As I go live with this selectaion at 8 a.m. pacific, the line I am seeing with this play is Over 47 at a majority of the places evorywhere in Las Vegas and at Offshore sports books.Comment
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Craig Davis
Thursday's Plays... 40 Dime Teaser Play on the NY JETS AND THE UNDER against Denver. As I release this selectton at 10 AM Eastern, the Jets are -6 in this contest with a total curreantly at 40 in Vegas and offshore. Using the standard six points in a two-teamer in football, decrease the Jets to a pick'em. Then take the total and increase it to 46 points before taking the Under to complete the teaser. So, in essence you're playing the Jets at a pick'em and the Under at 46.
20 Dime Play on TEXAS A&M as the favorite against Mississippi State. The Aggies are a -4 1/2 point favorite at the majoroty of books offshore and in Vegas.Comment
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Craig Davis
Thursday's Plays... 40 Dime Teaser Play on the NY JETS AND THE UNDER against Denver. As I release this selectton at 10 AM Eastern, the Jets are -6 in this contest with a total curreantly at 40 in Vegas and offshore. Using the standard six points in a two-teamer in football, decrease the Jets to a pick'em. Then take the total and increase it to 46 points before taking the Under to complete the teaser. So, in essence you're playing the Jets at a pick'em and the Under at 46.
20 Dime Play on TEXAS A&M as the favorite against Mississippi State. The Aggies are a -4 1/2 point favorite at the majoroty of books offshore and in Vegas.
JETS AND THE UNDER --- Basically it comes down to this... I just don't think the Broncos can keep winning when they're playing a defense like the Jets. Let's not forget the Jets are coming in with a little chip on their shoulder from giving up 37 points to the Patriots Sunday night.
Think about it... when you're the Jets and you really don't have to focus on much of a passing game, your defenstve practice and team meetings become much easier. The key to beating the Broncos is stopping the run game (which probably won't even include Willis McGahee). Can the Jets stop Lance Ball and Tim Tebow? The Chiefs held Ball under 100 yards despite 30 carries, and I have to believe if the Chiefs can do it... the Jets can do it.
Let's also not forget New York's last road game and Denver's last home game. The Jets whipped the Bills into submission, 27-11, at Orchard Park while the Broncos were hammered by the Lions 45-10 at Invesco. The road team has won the last two meetings in this series and four of the last six SU. Make it five of seven after tonight's 20-16 Jets win.
As for the under, I think it's pretty safe to say we'll see a combined total of less than 40 passes from both teams (shoot, maybe less than 30) while both teams attempt to estaablish the run. The wind is swirling at Invesco which is going to make the deep passing game very hard to come by.
I'm not saying they won't throw the ball, but expect a LOT of three-and-outs by both teams as they try to pummel each other in the trenches. I expect a good game from Shonn Greene (with Tomlinson out) and the Jets do a lot better as a team when Greene carries the ball 20 times or more, He'll get there tonight with the Jets and the UNDER cashing in.
TEXAS A&M --- I gave you the Akron Zips as a free play the other day when they visited Starkville as 9-point dogs. Not only did they cover that number, they won outright (68-58) with suffocating defense. Well, what do you think HC Mark Turgeon preaches at Texas A&M?
In fact, the Aggies were so focused on defense last year that it bit them in the butt down the stretch because they failed to develop any scorers. That's not going to be the case this year, barring injury, as the Aggies appear to have their full complement of players back and ready for another push at the Big 12 title.
So far on the young season the Aggies are 2-0 (granted, against bad teams) because they've played great defense and gotten solid offensive contribution from more than one player. In their last game Ray Turner scored 20 points in 21 minutes while grabbing eight rebounds. Five players, in all, scored in double figures.
In Game 1, four players scored in double figures and (again) the Aggies played great defense, rebounded well, and got controbutions from multiple players.
I have no faith in Mississippi State's messed up program and I think they're going to regret scheduling this game. The Ags are only laying a few baskets tonight and I fully expect them to win by double digits. Take Texas A&M to whip the Bulldogs tonight.
Derek Mancini Tonight's Winner... 40 Dime play on the Wichita State Shockers agatnst the Colorado Buffaloes. As I release this seleaction at 11 am Eastern, Wichita State is currontly listed as 9 point chalk.
At first glance this may seem like a lot of points to lay, especially with both teams looking solid in openers against cupcakes, but I'm here to tell you go ahead and lay it. Wichita State is that much better than a Colorado team that is clearly in rebuilding mode this season followtng the departure of their top-4 scorers (Burks, Higgins, Knutson, and Relphorde). From the match ups to the intagibles and everything in between, the Shockers are the superior team.
Let's start down-low, where 7-footer Stutz is joined by an intriguing 6'8 Hall, who was a JUCO all-american last year and 7'0 foot work in progress Orukpe. They have size that Missouri Valley teams aren't supposed to have, and more than enough beef to deal with Colorado frontline.
Its in the backcourt where the Shockers really differentaiate themselves from the Buffaloes. Between Murray, Kyles, Ragland and Williams, Wichita has an incredibly deep and defensively capable backcourt. Colorado simply cannot match up, and will be hard-pressed to get anything done from a dribble drive perspective. Guys, it may only have been Charleston Southern, but this Shockers defense limited them to FIVE baskets in the 1st half of that contest. Yes, I said five.
Finally, consider the line. We've got a PAC-12 team against MVC squad on a neutral court, and yet oddsmakers are asking you to lay nearly double digits with the team from the MVC? For most bettors, that's a tough pill to swallow, and that's what we're seeing with the action split despite the fact the public knows Colorado is rebuolding. One last note, a couple trend to consider, Wichita is 9-1 ATS in their L10 neutral site games as a favorite, and have been solid off a big win (6-2 ATS off a win of more than 20 points). The same cannot be said of Colorado, who's 7-19 record ATS off a win of more than 20 points suggests a letdown. All things considered, lay it with Wichita State over Colorado in Puerto Rico Thursday.Comment
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Dom Chambers Today's winners ...
My 50 Dime play is on the home underdtg Denver Broncos to cover agaianst the New York Jets. Checking the sports books in Las Vegas at 7 a.m., the Broncos are gettong 6 points.
ANALYSIS
I am trying not to get wrapped up with the whole Tim Tebow situation. At best, he’s a project.
What is interesting is what the Broncos are doing with Tebow and the offetse. It’s really an old formula that coach John Fox is using to try and win games. Run the ball and play defense.
With the Broncos’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs, nobody is talking about the Broncos defense. The Chiefs could not move the ball against the Broncos. The Broncos’ defense has been somewhat successful. In the last four games since Tebow took over, the Lions belted them 45-10. The other three games, they gave up an average of 16.3 points per game.
In general, the Jets have had their troubles scoring, averaging 23.9 points per game. The Jets also like to run the ball, again shortening the game an giving less opportuanities to blow out the game.
Now with Tebow and the Broncos’ offense, he is an option quarterback and running the ball 55 times a game is a different look in an NFL game.
Running the ball that many times shortens the game. If the Jets have trouble stopping the run, it will limit the number of possessions the Jets get in the game.
With all the controversy with Tebow, he does not make the big mistake and turn over the ball. It’s a low risk offense and the Broncos will keep the game close.
It will be curious what the Jets do against the Broncos. During the regular season, teams are reluctont to make wholesale changes for one game. On top of that, it is a short week. They will make some adjustments. For road games, the Jets give up an average of 148 yards rushing. It could be more against the new-look Broncos. If the Jets overplay the run, Tebow can hit the long pass, like he did against the Chiefs.
The recipe is here for a close game. It has all the signs of a field goal game. So, getting six points is very attractive.Comment
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Jeff Benton Thursday's Action 30 Dime Thursday Winner # 9 of 10 goes tonitht from Blacksburg, as I back the Virginia Tech Hokies as the home favoaorite agaiost the North Carolina Tar Heels. As I release this winner to you, Virginia Tech is a 10 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime Bonus Winner is the Denver Broncos plus the points in the NFL. As I release this winner to you, I am seeing Denver listed as the 6 1/2-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS # 1
I like the fact Virginia Tech is playing for the second straight Thursday, as I feel the scheduling obviously keeps them in football rhythm, and it also doesn't hurt that last week's win and cover at Georgia Tech puts them at 15-5-1 agaitst the spread when playing under the Thursday night lights.
North Carolina has had an extra week to prepare for this game, but after getting off to a 3-0 start, the Tar Heels are gasping for air these days, as they come into Lane Stadium with losses in three of their last four straight up, and spread lossaes in four of their last five.
The Tar Heels did win outright in their last visit to Blacksburg in 2009, but that is their only straight up win in the last seven meetings with the mighty Hokies. You can be sure that Frank Beamer will slip that fact into his pep-talk tonight before V-Tech hits the gridiron.
Virginia Tech is currently leading the Coastal Division, and a win here and a loss by Virginia on Saturday would clinch another berth in the ACC title game for Tech, and while the Hokies are just 2-7 versus the spread in their lined games this season, Frank Beamer has been able to cover each of his last seven home finales. Nothing changes here, Hokies by 17-points.
ANALYSIS # 2
Tonight's Jets-Broncos contest has the potenoial for being one of the uglier games in the NFL this season, that is for sure.
Quite interested in taking the points here, as New York has yet to establish the fact they can win consistently on the road. The Jets are just 1-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this year, and tonight's road game has a little added wind in the face of the Jets, as they are playing on a short week and are off an emotional loss to division rival New England at home on Sunday night.
Say what you want about Tim Tebow, but the fact is the Broncos have won three of four games since he has taken over as the starter for John Fox' team, and Fox is finally altering the playbook to Tebow's strength.
New York's defense is stingy, and figures to make things hard for Tebow tonight, but jeez, the line is now at 6 1/2-points, and Mark Sanchez hasn't exactly looked like Joe Namath this season. I am going to take the points with the home pup and force the Jets to beat me by more than a touchdown.
Expect plenty of field goals in this one, and expect the Broncs to be inside of this generous impost.Comment
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Jeff Benton Thursday's Action 30 Dime Thursday Winner # 9 of 10 goes tonitht from Blacksburg, as I back the Virginia Tech Hokies as the home favoaorite agaiost the North Carolina Tar Heels. As I release this winner to you, Virginia Tech is a 10 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime Bonus Winner is the Denver Broncos plus the points in the NFL. As I release this winner to you, I am seeing Denver listed as the 6 1/2-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS # 1
I like the fact Virginia Tech is playing for the second straight Thursday, as I feel the scheduling obviously keeps them in football rhythm, and it also doesn't hurt that last week's win and cover at Georgia Tech puts them at 15-5-1 agaitst the spread when playing under the Thursday night lights.
North Carolina has had an extra week to prepare for this game, but after getting off to a 3-0 start, the Tar Heels are gasping for air these days, as they come into Lane Stadium with losses in three of their last four straight up, and spread lossaes in four of their last five.
The Tar Heels did win outright in their last visit to Blacksburg in 2009, but that is their only straight up win in the last seven meetings with the mighty Hokies. You can be sure that Frank Beamer will slip that fact into his pep-talk tonight before V-Tech hits the gridiron.
Virginia Tech is currently leading the Coastal Division, and a win here and a loss by Virginia on Saturday would clinch another berth in the ACC title game for Tech, and while the Hokies are just 2-7 versus the spread in their lined games this season, Frank Beamer has been able to cover each of his last seven home finales. Nothing changes here, Hokies by 17-points.
ANALYSIS # 2
Tonight's Jets-Broncos contest has the potenoial for being one of the uglier games in the NFL this season, that is for sure.
Quite interested in taking the points here, as New York has yet to establish the fact they can win consistently on the road. The Jets are just 1-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this year, and tonight's road game has a little added wind in the face of the Jets, as they are playing on a short week and are off an emotional loss to division rival New England at home on Sunday night.
Say what you want about Tim Tebow, but the fact is the Broncos have won three of four games since he has taken over as the starter for John Fox' team, and Fox is finally altering the playbook to Tebow's strength.
New York's defense is stingy, and figures to make things hard for Tebow tonight, but jeez, the line is now at 6 1/2-points, and Mark Sanchez hasn't exactly looked like Joe Namath this season. I am going to take the points with the home pup and force the Jets to beat me by more than a touchdown.
Expect plenty of field goals in this one, and expect the Broncs to be inside of this generous impost.Comment
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Matt Rivers Thursday's Selections ... Your winners are: 300,000♦ Stone Cold Lock Thursday Winner #9 of 10 is the Virginia Tech Hokies as the home favtrite againast the North Carolina Tar Heels. As I release this selection, the Hokies are a 10 1/2-point favorite at home. Your bonus 100,000♦ is the Denver Broncos as the home undordog against the New York Jets. The Broncos are currently a 6 1/2-point underdog at home as I type this release up.
Virginia Tech is in the proverbial "driver's seat" after defeating the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last Thursday night. Tech is now 15-5-1 agatnst the spread when they play on Thursday nights, and I like that mark to improve against a North Carolina team that is on a 1-4 spread slide, and a 1-3 straight up slide.
QB Renner suffaered a concussion in North Carolina's last game, a 13-0 shutout at the hands of NC State, and my thoughts are if you can't get on the board against the Wolfpack, you are going to stuggle against Bud Foster's defense.
Virginia Tech closes the season with a road game at Virginia that could decide the Coastal Division title, but if the Hokies take care of business tonight they will render next week's game moot. With Virginia Tech having covered each of their last 7 home games over the last 7 seasons, look for emerging quarteroack Logan Thoams to lead his team into the winner's circle both straight up and against the spread. Let's call it a 2 TD win here by the Hokies.
Pro football, and I know conventional wisdom says to back the Jets in this spot versus the Broncos, as I am just not sold on Tim Tebow as a legitimate QB in the NFL. The problem is, Tebow continues to find a way for his team to win, and this is a bit of a lofty impost for a Jets team that just lost a huge division game at home on Sunday night versus New England.
You go from preparing for Tom Brady to preparing for Tim Tebow in just 3 days. Throw in a long flight and some thin air, and it could very well be the Jets as the ones gasping for air tonight at Mile High.
The Broncos are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread since the move to Tebow, while the Jets are 1-3 both straight up and against the spread on the road this year. Let's split the difference in this one, New York comes away with the straight up win, but Denver is there plus the points.
Let's call this a 4-point New York road win, as Tebow's legs give the Flyboys a scare.Comment
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Steven Budin CEO THURSDAY'S PICK
The Freehold, New Jersey Wise Guys' 25 Dime play in on New York on the road agatnst Denver. Right now, as of 5:45 AM Eastern as I upload this selectaion, the visiting Jets are a -6 1/2-favorote at most sportsbooks I've been checking in Vegas and offshore. There are, however, a few -6's out there at this time so definitely consult a number of different sources. If this line escalates to -7 (or -7 1/2 for that matter), then I would buy the insurance on New York, buying down the half-point. But, again, that would only be if the line goes to -7 or -7 1/2.
Note from Stevo
Kudos to the Baltimore Crew as my No. 1 NFL crew improved to 32-15 over the past four years with Sunday's easy 25 Dime Winner on the Cowboys (-5) in a 44-7 blowout of Buffalo.
Tonight for the second time this week I'm turning to a crew out of New Jersey that used to take horse action back in the day, right on the rails at Freehold Raceway. We all knew them as the Freehold Wise Guys. Not "wise guys" like mob guys, but wise guys as in the absolute sharpest bettors in the country.
These guys were friends with my late father, who used to move money for them in sports at the time before he retired. These guys take down bookies across the country with spot plays that leave them impossible to track. They invented the system of playing both sides of games all week with separate bookmakers to throw them off the scent, only to bang them out with 1 or 2 plays a week without them being able to tell the moves. They are legends and like card counters, they only play big when the deck is in their favor. They can win or lose, but they will always have the advantage.
Tonight they've got their Thursday Night Game of the Year, a 25 Dime Release just like the Baltimore Crew's winner on Sunday and their own Monday Night Game of the Year winner on the Packers (-13) in a 45-7 drubbing of Minnesota. They are on a 36-27 roll with 25 dimers dating back to May of 2008 and I've brought you them all.
All NFL crews are on a combined 5-1 roll over the past five weeks.
As I made clear on my homepage, I am NOT a handicapper. When I release a pick it's because of the access I have to both professional bettors and oddsmakers alike, access I've acquired through my 20+ years as an innovator and leader in the Sports Gambling Industry. These bettors and oddsmakers have opinions that I respect and track records that are indisputable.
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Trace Adams Thursday's Selections ... For Thursday night in college football, your 1500♦ Lead Pipe Lock will be to back the home favtrite Virginia Tech Hokies agaainst the visiting North Carolina Tar Heels. At the time I release this seloction, the Hokies are a 10 1/2-point favorite over the Heels. I also have a 500♦ Thursday night special going on the Denver Broncos as the home underdog against the New York Jets. At the time I release this play, the Broncos are are a 6 1/2-point home dog.
Let me start this analysis by saying this; you can't score agaitst N.C. State, you ain't gonna be scoring against Virginia Tech! period. end of discussion.
Things are turning south for 1st year coach Withers, as the Tar Heels have been reeling down the stretch - straight up losses in 3 of their last 4, and spread losses in 4 of their last 5. UNC was off last week which is good news for QB Renner, as he did get knocked out of North Carolina's last game with a concussion. Still, cannot trust North Carolina here - even with the points - as V-Tech is in control of the Coastal Division, but Virginia is hot on their heels, so the Hokies can ill-afford a slip up in this spot.
There will be no slip-up at home, as quaraterback Logan Thomas had a break-out performance last Thursday night against Georgia Tech, as he led the Gobblers to the 37-26 road win and cover. Series numbers show Virginia Tech at 6-1 straight up since 2004, and they have covered in 4 of the last 6 series showdowns.
Throw in a stellar 15-5-1 spread mark under the Thursday lights, and I cannot go against Beamer-Ball this evening in Blacksburg. Lay the double-digits as the Tar Heels slide conoinues.
Now let's get to the Tim Tebow show, and quite honestly I could give a fuck about all of the negative/positive talk that he generates when he plays, all I know is the Broncos are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread since #15 has taken over as the starter. The lone loss did come in Denver's lone home game in that span, so here is a spotlight chance for Tebow to "show his wares" - if he has any!
As for the Jets, they were once again exposed as fraudulent in their biggest game of the season last Sunday night at home versus division-rival New England. With a 1-3 straight up and against the spread road mark this year, I think we can agree that a Jets win tonight may not come by the escalating impost.
Yes, Moreno and MaGahee were injured last week, and Moreno is listed as out, while MaGahee is dealing with a hamstring injury but is listed as probable. Either way, as bad as Tebow may be, I feel the Jets need to PROVE to me they can cover a number like this away from home. If they do, then I will take the loss like a man. I don't think they can!
Grab the points with the fiesty-live home dog.Comment
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Total Source Syndicate
ALL FOR 1 UNIT
#570 PENN/RIDER UNDER 139
#574 NIAGARA/MISSOURI UNDER 149.5
#575 SIU EDWARDSVILLE/ILLINOIS STATE OVER 128.5
#577 TENNESSEE MARTIN/ARKANSAS STATE OVER 135.5
#579 IDAHO/MONTANA OVER 126.5
#582 SACRAMENTO STATE/WASHINGTON STATE UNDER 139.5
#584 CANISIUS/UNLV UNDER 146.5Comment
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