11-20-11

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog
1 OF 10
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (Sunday 11/20 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona +10 (-115)

The Niners are undefeated this season against the spread. When you have that situation this late in the season, you start getting some serious line value the other way. This will be a tough spot for San Francisco to get motivated, as they have all but wrapped up the NFC West just nine games into the season with their stellar 8-1 record. That gives them a five game lead with just seven to play. And, they are coming off a huge win vs. the Giants and they have Baltimore on tap. In the meantime, they get the lowly Cardinals at home which can't excite them. The Cardinals have found a little unexpected benefit in the arm of John Skelton and won as a huge dog last week at Philadelphia. Skelton has achieved a higher QB rating than Kolb this season. The 49ers may also be limited in their use of Frank Gore who injured his knee last week and with such a big cushion, I doubt they will put him in harm's way often, as this game doesn't mean much. The Niners have already shown signs of
contentment when playing bad teams with a 10-point win vs. Cleveland and an 8-point win vs. Washington. This one certainly sets up to be even closer yet. The Cardinals are now 16-7 ATS off a game where they passed for 150 yards or less, and the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these clubs. In their last 32 games vs. great teams (.750+), Arizona has gone 24-8 against the number. Under Ken Wisenhunt, this team is 12-3 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game.
Take the Cards with the points.

[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: WEEK 11
By Colin Kelly


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
WHY BENGALS WILL COVER: They’re getting 7 points against team that, over past four games, lost outright to Jacksonville and Seattle, and nearly lost to Arizona, failing to cover against all three lightweights. And Cincy has cashed in all five of its roadies this season, going 4-1 straight up. This rivalry also leans to Bengals lately, who have covered last four, all as pups.
WHY RAVENS WILL COVER: They tend to play up – or down – to the level of their competition, as proven by their big win two weeks ago at Pittsburgh and their inexplicable loss last week at Seattle. So John Harbaugh’s troops, at 5-1 ATS last six vs. winning teams, should be pretty amped to face solid Cincy squad.
TOTAL (40.5): Game features two of league’s top defenses, with Baltimore allowing 16.9 ppg (third) and Cincy 18.2 ppg (fifth). In this AFC North rivalry, total has gone low four straight and six of last seven.

Oakland Raiders (-1) at Minnesota Vikings
WHY RAIDERS WILL COVER: Oakland getting little respect as first-place team from AFC Worst, er, West. Lousy division aside, Men in Black have covered all four on road this year (all as ‘dogs), with three SU wins. And they played Thursday game last week, so they’re rested.
WHY VIKINGS WILL COVER: 3-0-1 ATS last four following non-cover. And Oakland not exactly comfortable in favorite’s role, at 8-23 ATS last 31.
TOTAL (45): Under has been play in five of Raiders’ last six, but with game at Vikes’ home dome, weather won’t be factor, and Minnesota on 4-1 over stretch at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1)
WHY JAGUARS WILL COVER: Coming off huge win at Indianapolis. Uh, maybe not, since beating Manning-less Indy not so special anymore. Still, they’ve cashed three of four (3-0-1 ATS), and Browns on numerous pointspread freefalls, including 4-15-2 overall and 1-8-2 at Dawg Pound.
WHY BROWNS WILL COVER: Get rare opportunity to face more inept offense than their own. Jags, with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, netting a paltry 12.8 ppg (31st). By comparison, Cleveland and second-year QB Colt McCoy an offensive juggernaut at 14.6 ppg (29th).
TOTAL (34.5): That is one low number for a total, but these two teams are awful on offense. Watching paint dry might be more exciting than this game. In fact, watching paint dry, then repainting and watching it dry again might be more exciting. Jags have played to under in four straight overall and five in a row on highway, and under 4-1 in Browns’ last five.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1)
WHY BILLS WILL COVER: After 4-1 SU start, they’re backsliding, and they desperately need a win to stay in AFC playoff picture. Miami has long-standing tradition of non-excellence at home, where they own ATS slides of 18-48-1 overall and 7-29 as a chalk.
WHY DOLPHINS WILL COVER: They are scorching hot, or at least their version of scorching hot, winning last two SU and ATS after opening season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS). Buffalo 3-7 ATS last 10 AFC East contests.
TOTAL (43): These division rivals polar opposites on totals, with Bills on boatload of over runs (including 8-2 last 10 overall and 5-0 on road) and Fish on plethora of under hot streaks (8-0 last eight). Under 7-3 last 10 Bills-Dolphins clashes, including 4-1 last five in Miami.

Dallas Cowboys (-9) at Washington Redskins
WHY COWBOYS WILL COVER: Because it’s November, and the Cowboys have beaten the oddsmakers 20 of the last 28 times in the 11th month of the year, including 4-1 ATS last five. Washington can’t figure out who to play at QB and is on 0-5 SU and ATS purge, scoring 13 points or less four times in that span.
WHY REDSKINS WILL COVER: Can’t sugarcoat that Washington is weak, but for whatever reason, the ‘Skins have a stronghold on this rivalry at the books, going 8-2 ATS last 10 against Pokes. Dallas 1-6-1 ATS last eight as favorite.
TOTAL (41.5): Under 5-1 last six Cowboys-Redskins affairs, including Dallas’ “thrilling” 18-16 home win in September – and that was the highest scoring of those five unders, with the other four totaling 24 points or less. Washington on under sprees of 13-3 overall and 6-1 at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)
WHY BUCCANEERS WILL COVER: It’s almost impossible to make a case for anybody against Green Bay right now, but Bucs do have one key attribute: road-warrior mentality. Tampa on road ATS upswings of 12-3-1 overall and 10-2 catching points.
WHY PACKERS WILL COVER: Defending Super Bowl champions virtually unstoppable, having won 15 consecutive games SU while going a stout 12-3 ATS in that stretch. QB Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 3 INTs) leading league’s best offense (35.6 ppg).
TOTAL (49): Packers scored 45 points in each of last two games, and in four home games this year, Rodgers & Co. have piled up 42 or more three times. If Green Bay keeps up that pace, it won’t take much from the Bucs to reach the over.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7)
WHY PANTHERS WILL COVER: Lions not exactly the same team that started season 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS, and they’re losing their composure a bit, too, as evidenced by Matthew Stafford’s meltdown in blowout loss to Bears last week. Panthers a solid underdog, at 8-2-2 ATS last 12 in that role.
WHY LIONS WILL COVER: Even though they’ve dumped three of last four SU and ATS, they’re still on several positive pointspread streaks, having cashed nine of last 12 at home dome and going 10-3-1 last 14 overall.
TOTAL (47): Mostly over trends for both teams. However, total has gone low five of last six at Ford Field.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
WHY CARDINALS WILL COVER: Coming off huge road upset of Philadelphia as a 13.5-point underdog, so they’ve got plenty of confidence against division rival. And forget about injured QB Kevin Kolb; unheralded John Skelton has led Redbirds to back-to-back wins, on the field and at the sportsbook.
WHY 49ERS WILL COVER: Nobody in the league better at beating the bookmakers. Niners haven’t suffered pointspread loss all season (8-0-1) and are on 7-0 SU and ATS firestorm. San Fran has also covered last five vs. Arizona.
TOTAL (40.5): Total has gone low in nine of Cards’ last 11 NFC West tilts. On the flip side, Niners on flurry of over runs, including 6-1 at home.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (-1)
WHY JETS WILL COVER: Well, they’re generally lousy, and they start Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but they actually beat Baltimore outright last week, moving to 5-1-1 ATS last seven – and they were underdogs in all seven contests. Seattle has also grabbed cash seven of last eight in this NFC West rivalry.
WHY JETS WILL COVER: Can control the game behind RB Steven Jackson, who is starting to rumble again. Jackson rushed for 128 yards in win at Cleveland last week, giving him average of 139 ypg over last three outings.
TOTAL (39): Rams average NFL-worst 12.6 ppg, and Seahawks not much better at just 16 ppg (29th). Such patheticness points to the under, which is 5-1 in St. Louis’ last six overall and 12-3-1 in Rams’ last 16 division starts.

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
WHY CHARGERS WILL COVER: Because they need a win, having dumped four in a row SU and ATS to lose control of awful AFC West. If coach Norv Turner doesn’t right this ship quickly, he’ll need some SPF 50 for his rear end, to avoid scorching burn of hot seat.
WHY BEARS WILL COVER: They’re on a roll right now, even if QB Jay Cutler always looks like he’s got a bad case of bitter beer face. Lovie Smith’s troops have been impressive in reeling off four straight wins, cashing in all four, including beatdown of visiting Detroit last week.
TOTAL (45): With Chargers hitting road and Bears at home, over seems like smart play. Over 6-1-1 San Diego’s last nine roadies and 8-2 Chicago’s last 10 at Soldier Field.

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
WHY TITANS WILL COVER: Not a lot of positive ATS trends for this team, so motivation comes from desperation. If this team still harbors any playoff hopes, it’ll have to get some wins outside of AFC South down stretch.
WHY FALCONS WILL COVER: Because coach Mike Smith has to put last week’s stupid fourth-down decision out of everybody’s minds. What better way is there to prove you’re a genius than by just beating the daylights out of an opponent? And Atlanta is a very strong bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 18-5 off a SU loss and 18-7 after a non-cover.
TOTAL (44): Falcons have played to the under five consecutive games, even though last week’s loss to New Orleans went to overtime.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-4.5)
WHY EAGLES WILL COVER: When 3-6 team is only catching 4.5 points on road against 6-3 team, something’s up. Clearly, oddsmakers still believe in Eagles’ overwhelming talent level, even if it hasn’t translated to SU or ATS wins. Also involved in the equation: In this rivalry, ‘dog has gone stout 12-2 ATS last 14, and road team has covered seven of last nine.
WHY GIANTS WILL COVER: They are stinging from loss at San Francisco, in game they definitely could have won. And they’ve already proven selves against Eagles this season, going on road to post 29-16 outright win in Week 3 as hefty 9-point underdog, ending Philly’s 6-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry.
TOTAL (47): Over 10-4 in New York’s last 14 at home, and over has been torrid on road for Philly, hitting in nine of last 10.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)
WHY CHIEFS WILL COVER: That’s an awful lot of points. Even in a rout, Kansas City could come up with a cheap late score for a backdoor cover. And they’ve got a couple ATS trends in their favor, having covered five straight from underdog role and 11 of 13 catching more than 10 points. Pats just 3-15 ATS last 18 laying more than 10.
WHY PATRIOTS WILL COVER: Many started pointing out Pats’ inadequacies after losses to Steelers and Giants. Then they smacked Jets pretty good last week on road. Bill Belichick doesn’t mess around with bad teams, going 5-1 ATS last six against sub-.500 squads. And Chiefs are starting someone named Tyler Palko at QB this week, with Matt Cassel potentially out for season with a throwing hand injury.
TOTAL (46.5): Chiefs averaging just 15.7 ppg (27th), with total going low four straight and six of last seven. But Patriots play to over with regularity, with total going high eight of last 10 at home and 21 of last 28 overall. Plus, in Monday spotlight, New England on 5-1-1 over streak.

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Bills / Dolphins Over 43

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

5 UNIT PLAY

Carolina +7 over DETROIT: I know you don't heae about it too much in the NFL, as opposed to CFB, but this looks to me like a flat spot for the Lions here. Detroit is off a divisional game vs the Bears, in which they thoroughly outplayed them on the field, but 6 TO's led them to losing by 24 points. Now they are taking on a 2-7 Carolina team with a Thanksgiving Day game vs the Packers on deck. I don't know how Detroit will stay focused in this one. Last week Mathew Stafford has one of his worst outing in his career, as he threw 4 picks and had 2 returned for a TD. With Travis Best out the Lions have no balance on offense and teams have been taking away Megatron, who is their only real deep threat. Last week Stafford had to throw 63 times due to no running game and that should not serve them well here as the Panthers are far better vs the pass (14th) than the run (28th). The Carolina offense has been solid all year, checking in at 6th overall and 8th in both passing and rushing and that running game should have success vs a Detroit defense that is 27th vs the run. Using Williams and company on the ground will be a good way to keep the Detroit off the field as well. The Panthers have outgained 7 of their nine opponents this year and they should have a good showing here vs a Detroit team that has come back to earth and has their biggest Turkey Day game in ages on deck. Detroit by no more than a FG. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any away dog that scored 3 points or less last week as a home fav and are facing a team that is off a loss. This system is 16-2 since 1989.

4 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Buffalo/ Miami Under 43: A couple of futile offenses enter this game and it should make for a low scoring game. The dolphins offense look good in their opener vs the Pats, but this team has not look good overall as they have put up just 17.6 ppg and 320 ypg overall this year, including an average of 18 ppg and 341 ypg game at home. The Dolphin defense has played really well after that opening game vs the Pats as they have allowed just 17.5 ppg since that game and in their last 4 games this team has really played great defense, allowing just 12.5 ppg. Miami knows they won't outscore teams so they have turned to their defense to try and win games and they should have some success today as well. The Buffalo offense has been figured out and they have really struggled of late putting up just 13.7 ppg and 316 ypg in their last 3 games.Fitzpatrick and that pass offense had been goon at the start of the year, but they have thrown for just 193 ypg in their last 3 games and on the they have averaged just 186 ypg through the air. The Bills have gone back to running the ball with Fred Jackson and they are now 6th in the league in rushing. The Dolphins are 25th in the league in passing and so they have turned to the run of late, as they have run for 118.3 and a solid 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games. The Dolphins will really like running the ball as they face the Bills 23rd run defense (125.4 ypg). Neither team has had great QB so both teams have relied on the run and solid defense of late to win games and for that kind of gameplan 43 points is just to high. Mid 30's at best here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---The OU is 3-14, since 1992 when the Bills are off a game in which they allowed 24 points or more in the first half. \


San Diego/ Chicago Over 45: Gonna go with a Bolts double dip here on my top plays. I'll try an not repeat alot of the stats from below. Let's start this pick off with a solid system (Not a Power System Play Though). The Over is 27-6, in November, the last 33 times that a team (Chicago) is off a stretch in which they covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Not too shabby there. We also note that the O/U is 13-6-1 when the Bolts are off a a division loss and 10-1 when they take on a team that allows 7.5 yards or less on punt returns, plus the O/U is 10-1 in Chicago's last 11 as a favorite. The San Diego offense has struggled, but they are in desperation mode right now and I look for Rivers to have a big game vs a Chicago defense that is 29th in the league vs the pass. The Bolts are 27th in the league vs the Run and Matt Forte should have a good game and then that will lead to some big pass plays by Chicago in the second half as San Diego will start to crowd the box. San Diego's road games have averaged 50 ppg, while Chicago's home games have put up 49.6 ppg. I see this one at 50 or above.

3 UNIT PLAY

San Diego +3.5 over CHICAGO: The Chargers are not dead yet, as they reside in the weak AFC West and a win here would go a long way in getting this team back on track.The Chargers were embarrassed at home last week, so going out on the road may be just what they needed. The Chargers offense hasn't played that bad on the road as they have averaged 445 ypg and 25 FD's per game when facing defenses that are not ranked in the top 10. They can move the ball and should be able to have success vs a Chicago defense that is 25th overall (476 ypg) and 29th vs the pass (270 ypg). Last week the Bears crushed Detroit 3713, but that's due to 5 turnover and they allowed 313 yards through the air on their way to being out gained by 413-216. That's one of those misleading finals you read about. I know the bolts have been plagued by TO's this year, but in this must win game i expect Rivers to take care of the ball and come up with a big game. Last week the Bears put up just 216 yards vs a weak Detroit defense and this week they will be facing an angry Chargers defense that is 10th overall (331 ypg), but due to the TO's they are 25th in points allowed (25.3 ppg). Chicago Gains just 315 ypg at home, while they allow 400 ypg at home, so as long a Rivers protects te ball this should be a solid outright win by a Chargers team that's in desperation mode.

2 UNIT PLAY

GREEN BAY -14 over Tampa Bay: I think that Green Bay is looking to move up in the BCS standings they way they have been blowing out teams this year. The Packers have outscored their opponents by 14.9 ppg overall and a whopping 23.2 ppg at home. Green Bay's 4th ranked overall offense will be taking on a Tampa defense that is ranked 31st overall, while the Packs 3ranked passing offense should have a field day vs Tampa's 29th ranked pass defense. The Bucs are 29th in points allowed (25.9 ppg), while the Pack is 1sy in scoring (35.6 ppg). Green Bay does have a a game vs Detroit on deck so this COULD be a flat spot and the reason that this play is not rated higher, but in the end Green bay wants to stay sharp and Tampa just doesn't have enough offense or defense to keep this one close. Green Bay by 17+

1 UNIT PLAY

Cleveland/ Jacksonville Under 34: I Couldn't let this one go by without taking a stab at it. The Jags have averaged just 12.8 ppg on the year, while Cleveland has put up just 14.6 ppg. Jags road games have averaged 29.8 ppg, while Cleveland home games have averaged just 31 ppg. The jags defense is 4th overall and 6th in points allowed, while Cleveland is 6th overall (1st vs the Pass) and 11th in points allowed. Just like the Penn State/ Ohio State game on Saturday, this has the feeling of a 10-7 ballgame.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +8 over Dallas

This is one of the biggest rivalries in all of sports. In this rivalry, it is usually safe to expect the unexpected and with Dallas’s traditional Thanksgiving Day game on deck Thursday, the Redskins offer up even more appeal. The weekend before Thanksgiving two years ago, the Redskins were an 11-point pooch in Dallas and won outright, 7-6 and this one has that same feel only this time the Skins are at home. Yes, Washington has looked really bad, Lady Gaga close-up bad but they were actually better than the Fish last week and have been moving the ball much better lately than their scores have suggested. This is Washington’s Super Bowl game. They’ll show up this week and play their hearts out and may even win outright. ‘Skins unheralded defense and Cowboys preserving for short week has this one set up perfectly for the home dog. Play: Washington +8 (Risking 2.2 units).

Carolina +7 over DETROIT

If you were to look at Detroit’s calendar, there’s likely a spot the size of a pin head marking this game while the contest that follows, a U.S. Thanksgiving Thursday game against the mighty Packers, will be highlighted, flagged, ink-spotted and whatever else that might illuminate it. Overlooking this feisty Carolina bunch could prove costly. The Panthers were a cover machine early in the season when they had a 4-0-1 mark versus spread when taking points. That success had them favored in previous three games with only one cover. Back where they are best and with Detroit QB Matthew Stafford nursing a bad finger, Carolina competes throughout. Play: Carolina +7 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

Cincinnati +7 over BALTIMORE

There are a handful of goofy teams in this league and the Ravens fit right in. Baltimore has defeated the AFC leading Texans, the Jets and the rival Steelers twice. But then they go and lose to dregs like the Jaguars, Titans and Seahawks. The Bengals belong somewhere in between those groups and while that may be confounding, we do know that Cincinnati’s defense is strong enough to cope with whichever Ravens team shows up. This is the most points that have been offered to Cincy supporters all season and following a respectable showing with Pittsburgh, there’s no reason not to accept them. Play: Cincinnati +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

MINNESOTA +100 over Oakland

Oakland brings a swagger here after pulling upset in San Diego and then having 10 days to prepare for this one. Scheduling hardly seems fair seeing that the Vikings are on a short week after getting steamrolled by the Packers on Monday night. Or was it a blessing? RB Adrian Peterson should be fresh after carrying the ball just 14 times last week and now faces a run defense that ranks 25th in the league. Raiders have shown a propensity to fail after successes and being the league leaders in penalties doesn’t help matters. This is a classic case of sell high and buy low, as Carson Palmer and the Raiders won impressively in prime time while the Vikes were bludgeoned by Packers. Now the Raiders are an appealing and tiny favorite on the road and one we urge you to back off from. Play: Minnesota +100 (Risking 2 units).

THE REST

Tampa Bay +14 over GREEN BAY

Suggesting the Bucs here is like trying to convince you to take the homely girl to the prom, even though the pretty girl is available, simply because you’ll be a better person for it. The Packers are everyone’s beauty queens but continually covering double-digits spots in this league is never an easy assignment. Play: Tampa Bay +14 (No bets).

Buffalo +2 over MIAMI

Just three weeks ago, you would not have believed that a winless Miami team could possibly be favored in this contest. But after the Dolphins won consecutive games and the Bills did just the opposite, here we are. Difference being that Buffalo lost to the Jets and Cowboys while the Fish defeated two stiffs. Play: Buffalo +2

CLEVELAND –1 over Jacksonville

Most of you know what you’ll usually find in around a ‘dawg’ pound. Even so, it is difficult to recommend a Jacksonville squad whose only road win in five tries occurred at Indianapolis last week against those dead horses. Jags other four losses on the road have resulted in Jags being outscored 99-50. Play: Cleveland –1 (No bets).

ST. LOUIS –1 over Seattle

Neither side can be endorsed with much conviction but given the choice, prefer having hometown Rams to poor-traveling Seahags. This will be only the second home game for St. Louis since October 2nd and first in three weeks with last one resulting in win over Saints. Play: St. Louis –1 (No bets).

Arizona +10 over SAN FRANCISCO

Can’t knock the Niners but we’re still not prepared to spotting double-digits with this rather pedestrian offense. 49ers have been playing some sound football all season but this is not an 8-1 team. Cardinals are feeling better about themselves with John Skelton producing at quarterback, off consecutive wins. San Fran is way ahead in its division and could easily be more focused on upcoming Thanksgiving ‘Brother Bowl’ in Baltimore on Thursday night. Play: Arizona +10 (No bets).

San Diego +3½ over CHICAGO

This seems simple as the Chargers have dropped four straight while the Bears are at top of their game, having won four straight. Unless you are new to this league, you know it doesn’t quite work that way. Chicago could be emotionally spent after two impressive wins over Lions and Eagles while San Diego has had 10 days rest. Play: San Diego +3½ (No bets).

ATLANTA –6 over Tennessee

These two have the same record? If we dig a bit deeper, we find that three of Atlanta’s four losses have come against a fierce trio consisting of Packers, Bears and Saints. The Titans past three victories occurred against the Browns, Colts and Panthers. Line is short considering difference in class. Play: Atlanta –6 (No bets).

N.Y. GIANTS –5 over Philadelphia

Perhaps there is a hatred for Philadelphia that brings out the best in its opponents. If true, none will want to express that disdain more than these Giants, returning home after two road toughies and needing the win to hold top position in NFC East. Eagles have won just three of past 12 games and continue to be overvalued every week. Play: N.Y. Giants –5 (No bets).

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NFL

Season
Straight Up: 94-46 (.671)
ATS: 76-64 (.543)
ATS Vary Units: 390-304 (.562)
Over/Under: 71-70 (.504)
Over/Under Vary Units: 206-188 (.523)

Thursday, November 17, 2011
N.Y. Jets 25, DENVER 23

Sunday, November 20, 2011
Jacksonville 17, CLEVELAND 13
DETROIT 31, Carolina 15
GREEN BAY 37, Tampa Bay 13
MIAMI 21, Buffalo 17
Oakland 25, MINNESOTA 24
Dallas 24, WASHINGTON 13
BALTIMORE 23, Cincinnati 16
SAN FRANCISCO 28, Arizona 13
Seattle 18, ST. LOUIS 17
ATLANTA 25, Tennessee 17
CHICAGO 34, San Diego 18
N.Y. GIANTS 29, Philadelphia 21

Monday, November 21, 2011
NEW ENGLAND 30, Kansas City 14

[Mr. IWS]

A Bettor World

Atlanta -6.5
Oakland +1
Cincinnati/Baltimore Under 41
Seattle/St Louis Under 39

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

TOP
PANTHERS +7 at lions
BEARS -3 vs chargers
49'ERS -10 vs cardinals

STRONG
FALCONS -6.5 vs titans
BILLS +3 at dolphins
VIKINGS -1 vs raiders

REGULAR
COWBOYS -7 at redskins
JAGUARS +1 at browns
RAVENS -7 vs bengals

[Mr. IWS]

Ice Picks

Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes (-154, 5.5)

Someone will have to find the back of the net at some point in this one, either in regulation, overtime, or during a shootout. Perhaps the latter is most likely based on the way Toronto and Carolina have fared of late.

The Hurricanes have dropped seven of their last eight contests mainly due to a significant power shortage. They are scoreless over their last two games and they have scored more than two goals only once in this dismal eight-game stretch (averaging 1.5 per). Carolina did not have to face Buffalo's Ryan Miller on Friday, but it still got shut out by backup Jhonas Enroth.

"In my situation, I'm not sure I can fully describe the frustration of not seeing one of those second-chance goals," said on-the-hot-seat head coach Paul Maurice after his squad missed a host of opportunities against the Sabres.

Frustration is mounting for Toronto, as well. Heading into Saturday night's date at Washington, the Maple Leafs have lost three in a row and have mustered only five goals in that span. They have gone six consecutive games without scoring more than two goals, while averaging 1.33 tallies in those six.

Pick: Under

Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks (-180,5.5)

Ottawa has to be the streakiest team in the NHL heading into Sunday's game at Vancouver. The Senators have not gone win-loss-win or loss-win-loss since the second, third, and fourth games of the season.

They lost three in a row in mid October, won six straight to end the month, dropped five consecutive decisions to begin November, and have currently won three in a row. Ready for its fifth stop during a six-game road trip, Ottowa has scored 13 goals in its last three (wins over Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton).

“Our role players have been very good for the last few games and know we are starting to get some goals out of them," said head coach Paul MacLean. "It really helps the team and takes a lot of the weight off the other guys.”

Vancouver has lost two of three going into this one. At least five goals have been scored in each of the team's last nine games.

Roberto Luongo should be minding the net on Sunday after getting an off day when the Canucks lost to Chicago 5-1 on Wednesday. Luongo, though, has been mediocre this season with a 2.97 GAA and .896 save percentage.

Pick: Over

[Mr. IWS]

College funds: Sunday's best NCAAB bets


Something will have to give when Washington and Saint Louis square off on Sunday afternoon. Combined, the Huskies (3-0, 2-1 ATS) and Billikens (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS.

St. Louis is coming off a disappointing 12-19 (6-10 Atlantic 10) campaign, but last season was rocked before it started by a sexual assault investigation. Charges were dropped, but it left both Kwamain Mitchell and Willie Reed out for the year.

Mitchell is back and the Billikens are off to a good start. The star point guard shot just three of 13 in a 71-37 win over Tennessee State on November 11, but he dished out eight assists. Mitchell had nine points, four assists, and a team-high seven rebounds in Tuesday’s 61-42 blowout of Southern Illinois.

“He adds a whole new element to our game,” teammate Cody Ellis said of Mitchell. “He draws a lot of respect from everyone we play. He is definitely a big asset to us.”

Washington will be playing its first road game of the season. The Huskies endured a big scare against Florida Atlantic last Sunday when it led by four points with just over a minute to play before prevailing 77-71.

Shooting guard C.J. Wilcox is averaging 19.3 points and making 52.9 percent of his field goals through three games.

Pick: Saint Louis

Iowa Hawkeyes at Creighton Bluejays

Another all-undefeated matchup on Sunday pits a pair of 3-0, 1-0 ATS teams in Iowa and Creighton.

They already have one common opponent in the form of none other than the Chicago State Cougars. Iowa dominated 96-53 at home last Friday and Creighton, also with home-court advantage, prevailed by a similar 95-61 decision last Sunday.

The Bluejays already have a pretty decent road win having defeated UAB 70-60, which preceded a pair of blowout home victories against inferior competition. Sophomore forward Doug McDermott poured in 27 points against the Blazers and is averaging 20.3 points per contest despite playing limited minutes in the two most recent outings.

It's a family affair at Creighton, where second-year head coach Greg McDermott is Doug's father. And Doug is certainly on the way to making his dad a very happy man this season thanks in part to plenty of offseason work.

“I think I’ve gotten a little bigger, and I tried to work on my ball-handling in the offseason,” Doug explained. “Last year I was more of a back-to-the-basket guy. I did a lot of work on facing up, and got better in that area.

“I think I get it, after playing a year in college, what I’m going to see night in and night out. We have a lot of returning pieces, so we should be really good.”

Iowa, which is also looking good, is playing its first road game of the year. The Hawkeyes are being led by guards Matt Gatens (16.3 ppg) and Eric May (15.3 ppg).

Pick: Creighton

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Sunday’s Comp Play

NFL
Tampa Bay +14

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Chicago Bears -3 over the San Diego Chargers

[Mr. IWS]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Vancouver Canucks -180 over Ottawa Senators

[Mr. IWS]

Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day:

LSU + 3.5 over GA Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing for 11/20

Play of the Day:

Chicago Bears -3 over the San Diego Chargers