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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday
4* Best Bet = SAN DIEGO
3* = TAMPA BAY
3* = ATLANTA
2* = CAROLINA
2* = CINCINNATI
4* Best Bet = SAN DIEGO
3* = TAMPA BAY
3* = ATLANTA
2* = CAROLINA
2* = CINCINNATI
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Bob Christ’s breakdown of Pro Football Week 11 by Bob Christ
SUNDAY PRO FOOTBALL, Nov. 20
Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Ravens by 6½ (40½)
Facts: Four teams have suffered their most lopsided loss this season when facing Baltimore, a league high. Flashback: From 1999-2001, the Bengals were shut out three straight seasons in Baltimore. The record is four, set in 1921-24 when the Chicago Cards dominated the visiting Minneapolis Marines. Through three games, Baltimore caused QBs to fumble eight times. Over the next six, only 3.
Analysis: The Bengals played solid ball at home last week vs. Pittsburgh, with five sacks of Big Ben while keeping Andy Dalton clean. Yet that wasn’t enough in a 24-17 loss. Plus, now they’ll be without star CB Leon Hall (Achilles) and WR A.J. Green is questionable (knee). Although Baltimore probably will be without LB Ray Lewis (doubtful, toe), there’s enough veteran savvy to make this the toughest assignment of Dalton’s rookie year.
Forecast: Ravens 27, Bengals 10
Jacksonville (3-6) at Cleveland (3-6)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Browns by 1 (34½)
Facts: This is the lowest over/under of the season. Since 2009, when the number has been 36 or smaller, overs are 15-9. Cleveland hasn’t scored a TD in its past two games, four times stalling inside the St. Louis 20 last week. Jacksonville not only has the NFL’s worst-rated offense, but averages more than 32 yards fewer than the next-to-lousiest team.
Analysis: The Browns are going to try to end their TD dry spell with a battered offense that is last in average yards per reception (10.1) and per rush (3.2). The Jaguars defense is second in the league in forcing three-and-outs. And, nope, RB Peyton Hillis isn’t supposed to be back for Cleveland, which is 0-4-1 ATS at home and 0-8-1 dating to last year.
Forecast: Jaguars 14, Browns 9
Carolina (2-7) at Detroit (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Lions by 7 (47½)
Facts: Detroit has gone 1-3 since its 5-0 start. The Lions started two previous seasons with at least five straight victories (10-0 in 1934; 6-0 in 1956) and didn’t make the postseason either year. In eight of Carolina’s 13 drives last week against Tennessee, the Panthers advanced 4 yards or fewer. Lions QB Matthew Stafford threw 4 INTs last week in Chicago, matching his season total.
Analysis: Some of the luster is gone from rookie Carolina QB Cam Newton, who averaged 347 passing yards his first four games but 267 since. And that injury-ravaged defense showed how vulnerable it really is in a 30-3 home loss to a Tennessee in Week 10 vs. the league’s worst rushing offense. The Lions have been struggling to move the ball, but did score 45 against Denver two weeks ago.
Forecast: Lions 31, Panthers 14
Tampa Bay (4-5) at Green Bay (9-0)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Packers by 14 (48½)
Facts: Both teams were 10-6 in 2010. Green Bay went on to win the title, while Tampa Bay stayed home. In 2009, an 0-8 Bucs team beat the visiting Packers 38-28. Aaron Rodgers’ passer rating for the Packers is 130.7. All other QBs combined reached that number in a game 12 times this year. More Rodgers: He has 28 TDs and 3 INTs. In 1967, Bart Starr had 9 TDs and 17 INTs in leading Green Bay to the championship in Super Bowl II.
Analysis: Green Bay is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit home favorite, whereas all other such heavy choices are 4-9 ATS. The Pack will be facing a Bucs defense that has plummeted to 31 since being No. 9 after a 3-1 start. Perhaps Tampa Bay’s only chance is if Green Bay is looking toward Detroit on Thanksgiving. But the Bucs just gave up an almost perfect game to Texans QB Matt Schaub and Rodgers could flourish even if distracted.
Forecast: Packers 41, Bucs 14
Buffalo (5-4) at Miami (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line: Dolphins by 2 (43)
Facts: Shades of J.P. Losman: Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three 3 INT’s in his final nine throws in a 44-7 loss at Dallas last week. From 1970-79, Miami beat the Bills 20 games in a row, the longest streak by one team over another in league annals. Since 1987, Buffalo is 32-20. Miami avoided tying the league record for home losses (14) with its 20-9 victory over Washington last week.
Analysis: Dolphins still operating with a journeyman backup at QB in Matt Moore, who has fumbled twice in each of his past three games. Plus, this will be the first time in three weeks Miami’s defense will go against a team whose top rusher isn’t on IR. Instead, the Dolphins will see the NFL’s top ground gainer in Fred Jackson.
Forecast: Bills 27, Dolphins 17
Oakland (5-4) at Minnesota (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line: Pick’em (45)
Facts: Minnesota’s 45-7 loss in Green Bay on Monday night was the fourth-most lopsided in the league this season. However, teams that lose by 34-plus points this season have gone 4-1 the next week. On the other hand, teams coming off MNF are 0-3 (SU, ATS) when facing an unfamiliar nonconference foe. Oakland hasn’t played since Thursday in Week 10. Teams off a midseason Thursday game against a team on normal/short rest were 9-5 ATS last season.
Analysis: Just like in past years, the Raiders didn’t seem to miss former league rushing leader Darren McFadden (out, foot). Michael Bush had 157 yards at San Diego in Week 10, the most by any RB last week. Also, there’s no chance the AFC West leaders will take a downtrodden Vikings team lightly. Two weeks ago, Oakland faced a Denver squad coming off a 45-10 home loss to Detroit and were defeated 38-24.
Forecast: Raiders 27, Vikings 19
Dallas (5-4) at Washington (3-6)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Cowboys by 7½ (41½)
Facts: The last time Dallas was a bigger favorite in D.C. was in 1995, when the Super Bowl-bound Cowboys were 13-point picks. The Redskins won, 27-23. In Week 15 last year, host Dallas beat Washington 33-30 as a 9-point home favorite thanks largely to a +3 turnover edge. Dallas QB Tony Romo climbed from 10th to fourth on the passer chart with his 23-for-26, 3 TD performance against Buffalo last week.
Analysis: This game marks the 17th time in 18 outings the Redskins have been an underdog at home, going 6-7-3 ATS. For the second straight week, Rex Grossman will be at QB, the same guy who led his team on three first-and-goal possessions last week and couldn’t get a TD. Dallas just has too much punch, thanks to hard-running DeMarco Murray (6.7 a carry).
Forecast: Cowboys 28, Redskins 14
Seattle (3-6) at St. Louis (3-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m. PT
Line: Rams by 3 (39)
Facts: Since 2006, the year the Seahawks were swept three games by St. Louis, they are 11-1 vs. the Rams (9-3 ATS). St. Louis benefited from a bungled 22-yard FG attempt by the Browns in Cleveland late last week to win 13-12. Seattle’s average starting field position in its 22-17 victory against the visiting Ravens last week was its 41. Since Week 14 of 2010, clubs are 22-0 (21-1 ATS) with a launch-point norm of the 40 or better.
Analysis: Both teams won ugly last week. In the Rams’ case, they had only six second-half first downs. The Seahawks were uglier, committing 13 penalties to ties for the third most infractions against a winning team this year. They had marches to FGs of 1 and -8 yards.
Forecast: Rams 17, Seahawks 10
Arizona (3-6) at San Francisco (8-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m. PT
Line: 49ers by 9½ (40½)
Facts: San Francisco, 7-9 ATS in 2010, is the lone unbeaten team against the line this year (8-0-1) under first-year boss Jim Harbaugh. QB John Skelton led Arizona on three TD drives of 84-plus yards last week in a 21-17 victory at Philly as a 13½-point underdog, matching the biggest upset in the league this year. SF, behind QB Alex Smith, has completed only two passes of 40-plus yards, tied for second fewest in the league.
Analysis: The 49ers are doing everything right, but soon will be caught up in a scheduling pinch that will see them traveling to Baltimore for a prime-time Thanksgiving showdown on tiny rest. With a five-game lead in the NFC West, can Harbaugh be trusted to focus on a weak Cardinals team when an ensuing meeting vs. brother John is so near? Unsure how much SF lets star RB Frank Gore (questionable, knee) play.
Forecast: 49ers 17, Cardinals 16
Tennessee (5-4) at Atlanta (5-4)
Time: 1:15 p.m. PT
Line: Falcons by 6 (44)
Facts: Atlanta’s 26-23 OT home loss to New Orleans dropped the Falcons a game behind in the cloudy NFC wild-card mix. In addition, teams have gone 1-8 ATS in games after facing the Saints this year. Make that 6-18 counting 2010. Tennessee remains the NFL’s worst rushing team in yards despite its season-best 172 at Carolina. Atlanta WR Julio Jones (questionable, hamstring) had 131 yards two weeks ago before getting hurt.
Analysis: Watching the Saints stuff the Falcons on fourth down on that Michael Turner run up in OT was alarming. So was Atlanta failing to force a turnover against a team that entered -6 in that category. The Titans should be able to stay close in a dome that doesn’t seem so intimidating lately.
Forecast: Falcons 20, Titans 17
San Diego (4-5) at Chicago (6-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. PT
Line: Bears by 3½ (45)
Facts: The Bears had three return scores (punt, two INTs) against Detroit in their 37-13 runaway last week. The last team with a +3 edge was New England last year in a 41-14 victory in Miami. San Diego hasn’t won in Chicago since 1970, three years after Papa Bear George Halas retired from coaching. At this stage last year, Chargers TE Antonio Gates shared the league lead with 9 receiving TDs. Now he’s got 2.
Analysis: The Bears’ rousing victory last week masks the fact they had only 12 first downs and sacked Matthew Stafford only twice in 65 drop-backs. The Chargers will be refreshed and certainly more desperate. That counts a lot, even when Philip Rivers leads the league in INTs (15) and the offensive line has trouble holding back the tide.
Forecast: Chargers 17, Bears 14
Philadelphia (3-6) at N.Y. Giants (6-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m. PT
Line: Giants by 5 (46)
Facts: The Eagles’ 21-17 home loss to Arizona in Week 10 was stunning considering they had a 15-yard edge in average starting field position and their $100 million QB (Michael Vick) faced John Skelton, a backup from Fordham. The Giants have a league-high 30 sacks and will likely be taking aim at Philly backup QB Vince Young, for Vick is doubtful (ribs). In two of NY’s three losses, on average it opened drives at its 19.
Analysis: Giants defenders with long memories know what Young can do. With the Titans in 2006 he rallied Tennessee from a 21-0 fourth-quarter deficit to win in the Meadowlands, 24-21. And it’s not like Vick was playing like gangbusters, even against the Cards’ crummy pass defense. With WR DeSean Jackson back from his suspension, Eagles coach Andy Reid should have his team playing with high energy on national TV.
Forecast: Eagles 26, Giants 23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, Nov. 21
Kansas City (4-5) at New England (6-3)
Time: 5:30 p.m. PT
Line: Patriots by 15
Facts: When these clubs last met, in Week 1 in 2008, the host Pats were a 16-point pick and won 17-10. They haven’t been that heavy a pick since. In that game, current Chiefs QB Matt Cassel (out, hand) was with NE and relieved injured Tom Brady. Now Tyler Palko replaces Cassel. In the sole game Cassel missed in 2010, Brodie Croyle led KC to 67 yards of offense in a 31-0 loss at San Diego, the worst production by a club since 2004.
Analysis: Palko, 28, undrafted out Pitt, will be making his first start on the road against a Bill Belichick team on Monday night. Yikes! But recent history indicates that there’s hope: In Week 4, perennial Indy backup Curtis Painter got his first start at Tampa Bay on MNF. He pitched two TDs without an INT and helped the Colts beat the line in a 24-17 loss. Palko, however, likely will play more like Croyle.
Forecast: Patriots 38, Chiefs 13
SCOREBOARD
Last week: 7-9 vs spread; 7-9 straight up
Season total: 78-61-6 (.561) ATS; 87-58 (.600) SUComment
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Pro Football Play of the Day November 20, 2011 6:56 AM by GT Staff
Pro Football
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (Total 34)
Where will the points come from? If there aren’t any defensive or special teams touchdowns, this could be a 10-7 game. At least we hope so. A little cold weather wouldn’t hurt.
UNDER 34Comment
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Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play
5 dime pick on Oakland at the Metrodome agaitst Minnesota. As I release this selectlion at 7:00 AM Pacific, the Raiders are anywhere between Pick-em or an underdog of +1 or +1 1/2 in Las Vegas and offshore at the majordty of books I've checked.Comment
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Anthony Redd
Sunday's Plays
50 Dime selection on the Jaguars as the small road underdtg against the Browns. As this play is released at 5 am Pacific, the Jags are currently getting 1 point here in Vegas and offshore.
50 Dime selection on the Vikings as the small home favorite against the Raiders. The Vikings are currlently laying 1 point here in Vegas and offshore.
50 Dime selection on the Cowboys as the road favorite against the Redskins. The Cowboys are currently laying 7 points here in Vegas and offshdre.Comment
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