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mti;
Matchup: San Diego at Chicago
Time: 4:15 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: San Diego (+4 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: November 19, 2011 @ 8:28:02 PM EST
Perhaps the most underutilized handicapping parameter is third down conversion percentage. When a defense stops a third down conversion attempt it is similar to a turnover and when an offense converts a third down it keeps their defense off the field and the opponent’s defense on the field. Here we have some interesting trends involving third down conversion percentage. From the looks of their 37-13 final score against the Lions last week, it looks as if the Bears’ offense was stellar. In fact, Jay Cutler completed only nine passes and the Bears were out first-downed 22-12. Chicago converted only three third downs the entire game. This qualifies them for the following system: The league is 0-32 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since 2008 at home in weeks 8-12 when they are off a game in which they failed on at least ten third down attempts, had at least two trips into the red zone and allowed at least three third down conversions. The SDQL text is: p:3DF>=10 and site==home and 8<=week<=12 and po:3DM>=3 and p:RZA>=2 and season>=2008 This system was 0-26 at the start of the 2011 season and is now 0-32 ATS.
As a team, the Bears are 0-8 ATS after a home game in which they benefitted from a three-plus takeaway margin, failing to cover by an average of 13.6 ppg. As you can see by running the SDQL text:
p:TOM<=-3 and team=Bears and p:H and season>=2004
the Bears are only 2-6 straight up, with both wins narrow victories as a double-digit favorite.
Last Thursday, the Chargers lost to the Raiders 24-17. Perhaps the key problem was converting third downs, as San Diego was 5-of-16 on their third down conversion attempts. They have been fantastic in this spot. The Chargers are 8-0 ATS after a loss as a favorite in which they converted fewer than one-third of their third downs. In their last four games in this spot they have won by margins of; 34-7, 37-7, 38-13 and 31-0. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
p:3DP<33 and team=Chargers and p:LF
Note that the Chargers have covered the spread by an AVERAGE of 17.6 ppg in this situation. Wow.
The Bears’ defense was fantastic last week, stopping the Lions on 13 of 17 third-down conversion attempts and scoring two TDs. This is a negative indiator for their chances here. Chicago is 0-9 ATS after a win as a favorite in which they stopped their opponent on at least 75% of their third down attempts. The SDQL is:
po:3DP<25 and team=Bears and p:WF and 20061231<=date
The Chargers should be able to keep this one close vs a Bears’ team that thinks they are a lot better than they really are. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 24 CHICAGO 20Comment
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