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Wild Card Weekend Betting Info
The Chiefs are 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
Since 1991, they're 0-7 ATS in home playoff games.
Since 1991, they're 0-7 ATS in home playoff games.
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Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the West Coast. -
Since 2007, home teams in the Saturday Wild Card games are 14-5-1 ATSComment
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Regular Season Recap ...
Favorites
136-112 ATS (55%), +18.3 units
Dogs
112-136 ATS (45%), -29.5 units
Favorites Week 7-17
98-60 ATS (62%), +34.1 unitsComment
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Regular Season Recap ...
Overs
119-137 (46.5%), -22.29 units
Unders
137-119 (53.5%), +11.04 units
Divisional Unders
57-39 (59.4%), +15.04 units
Divisional Unders with total >40
51-29 (63.8%), +19.45 unitsComment
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Buffalo hasn't won a playoff game since 1995 (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS)Comment
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Should Bettors be Worried about the Jaguars’ Losing Streak?
The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Everbank Field. It is the Jags’ first playoff appearance since 2007. The oddsmakers opened Blake Bortles & Co. as 7.5-point favorites at home, yet a majority of early spread tickets are taking the Bills and the points. This is likely a reaction to the way Jacksonville ended its season.
The Jaguars enter the playoffs having lost two in a row, the team’s first losing streak of the season. No team wants to limp into the postseason but should back-to-back loses to the 49ers and Titans concern bettors?
Using the Bet Labs database, teams that lost their previous game have gone 27-28 straight-up and 23-31-1 (42.6%) ATS in the playoffs since 2003-04.
Not great but if you dive deeper into the results a surprising trend emerges.
Small sample size alert ...
While we would not recommend placing a wager based solely on these results there is a clear divide between teams that lost their previous game (12-25 ATS) and those on a losing streak (11-6-1 ATS). The difference in ATS win rate can be attributed to public perception. Recreational bettors can give one-loss teams who rested starters in Week 17 a free pass heading into the playoffs, but that’s much more difficult to do with teams off two or more losses.
One loss can be forgiven but Bookmakers know casual bettors will have a hard time backing a team on a losing streak in the postseason, which can lead to inflated lines. Of the previous 18 teams to enter the playoffs on a skid of two or more games, only seven received a majority of spread bets.
Recreational gamblers are shying away from the Jags, though the line has moved to Jacksonville -9 at CRIS, a sharp book, despite a majority of tickets and money being placed on BuffaloComment
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South Point ...
"KC back to -8, Rams -6, Jax -7.5, Saints -6.5. Fair amount of money on MLs and teasers with all home teams as expected"Comment
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General Market Reaction ...
Each of the four games this weekend has around 5,000 bets, compared to about 1,000 Sports Insights normally see during the regular season. Though bettors, both sharp and square, are piling on each of these games, there is nothing attracting one-sided action. The highest spread percentage a team has is 58% (Rams) and the highest percent of bets a total is getting is 61% (TEN/KC Under.) Now that the lines have “matured” so to say, it will be interesting to see whether or not a team does start receiving one-sided action.
Line Moves ...
Every game has seen line movement since opening, but not too many key numbers have been impacted. Kansas City and Jacksonville’s lines have seen very similar movement, as they’ve both moved from a juiced up -7 to a even payout -9.
The Rams have seen the most significant movement so far, going from -4.5 to -6.5. They’ve also received the highest level of bets and dollars for any of the eight teams playing this weekend.
If the Rams hit the key number of seven, we imagine it will be at a juiced-up price and we’ll likely see buyback. The Falcons may not have had the greatest year, but they made the Super Bowl last season, have the reigning MVP, have the 2nd-best wide receiver in the league, and a strong team all around. They’ll be facing a team with essentially no experience and although Todd Gurley and Jared Goff will be getting some MVP votes, neither have played in a big game before.
The Saints, who are also receiving the slight majority of both bets and dollars, are also on the verge of moving to -7. Given the familiarity of these two teams, I’d be surprised if oddsmakers gave bettors the option to take the Panthers plus a touchdown. We’ve yet to see any sharp money indicators on this game, or any of the games for that matter, but I believe we’d have to see heavy Saints money to push them to -7.
Playoff Points ...
We have a variety of totals, ranging from the high 30’s to nearly 50.
At 39.5, the Bills-Jaguars total is mighty low. However, 60% of bettors are taking the under.
Given this level of betting activity, the total has dropped from 40 to 39.5, but this hasn’t been a good spot historically for the under. Since 2003, the under has gone just 12-17-1 in playoff games with a total in the 30’s.
The Falcons-Rams total has dropped from 50 to 48.5 at Pinnacle thanks to nearly 80% of dollars on the under. Historically, playoff games that are played outdoors with a closing total of at least 47.5 have gone under more than 75% of the time, which may be a trend sharp bettors have caught on to.Comment
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Nine points is a lot to cover, especially in a playoff game, but the Chiefs and Jags are on serious rolls at home.
KC has won 3 straight at home by an average of 14.6 points.
JAC has won 5 straight at home by an average of 16.6 points.Comment
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Every Saints home playoff game since 1980 has gone Over (8 Overs)
The total has gone Over in 6 of the last 7 games between the Panthers and Saints. Those games had an average combined score of 57.1.
Total for Sunday's game is 48½Comment
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The Panthers lost both games to the Saints, since 2003, divisional teams that got swept in the regular season are 9-8 in the playoff game.Comment
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Contrarian Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs
Public perception artificially inflates lines and sharp bettors can capitalize on these market overreactions by zigging when the public zags.
One of our favorite strategies at Bet Labs is betting against the public. Of course, the postseason is a different animal than the regular season. Is fading the public a viable strategy after Week 17?
Since 2003, teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 75-75-4 (50.0%) ATS in the postseason. If the team attracting little attention from recreational bettors is also an underdog, the win rates improves to 51.8% (44-41-3 ATS), but the larger the dog the bigger the bite.
Underdogs of more than five points receiving less than 50% of spread tickets have gone 738-703-32 (51.2%) ATS in the regular season.
In the playoffs the winning percentage increases to 60.0%, 27-18-1 ATS. For Bet Labs users, adding one more additional filter gives us an NFL Playoff system that has hit at 65.7% ATS and returned a profit of $933 for a $100 bettor.
Panthers-Saints
There are three games that match this Pro System in Wild Card Weekend. The most intriguing of the bunch is Panthers-Saints. New Orleans will try for a third-straight victory over Carolina after sweeping the regular season series. Since 1990, there have been 16 teams that swept a division rival in the regular season and met that opponent for a third time in the playoffs. The team that swept the regular season went 11-5 straight-up but 8-7 ATS.
History, and the betting markets (Saints -310 on the moneyline), are on New Orleans’ side to advance. Though, as a big favorite garnering public action, there is value on Carolina. Currently 47% of spread bets are taking Cam Newton & Co. as 7-point underdogs. In our Pro System, teams that are touchdown or greater underdogs have gone 18-7-1 (72.0%) ATS since 2003.
If you play the Panthers you won’t have to just rely on this betting trend. Carolina has the defense to make some noise in the playoffs. According to Football Outsiders, Carolina finished the season 9th in weighted DVOA and No. 1 in adjusted sack rate (50 sacks, 3rd best in the NFL). Plus, while Cam has been inconsistent he has shown flashes of the player that won the MVP two years ago (28 total touchdowns and over 4,000 yards of offense). The public is betting on a sweep by the Saints, contrarian gamblers can find an edge taking an unpopular dog.Comment
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Future Bets to Consider Before Wild Card Weekend
The regular season is in the books and Bet Labs has simulated the NFL Playoffs 10,000 times to determine the most likely AFC and NFC champions as well as each team’s probability of winning the Super Bowl. Football is hard to predict but based on our math, here are the future bets (from 5dimes) you should look into before Wild Card weekend.
AFC Championship
Only one team is offering value to win the AFC Championship and it’s not the Patriots. New England advances to the Super Bowl nearly 50% of the time but at -128 odds, Brady and Belichick are overpriced.
Defense wins championships, especially elite pass defenses. Since 1990-91, of the top 15 pass defenses by DVOA, seven ended up winning the Super Bowl and three more lost in the conference championship. Why does this matter? Jacksonville is No. 1 in pass DVOA this year and if they are to make a deep postseason run it won’t be on the arm of Blake Bortles. The Jags have lost two straight, but that’s not something bettors should worry about in the Wild Card round or when placing a bet on Jacksonville +900 to win the AFC.
If you can’t swallow placing a bet on Bortles (I don’t blame you), the Steelers +280 is offering fair odds. Of course, Antonio Brown’s healthy is a major concern.
Odds to win the AFC
Team / Odds / Projected Probability (%)
Patriots / -128 / 47.6
Steelers / +280 / 27
Jaguars / +900 / 15.4
Chiefs / +900 / 8.9
Titans / +4500 / 0.8
Bills / +5000 / 0.4
NFC Championship
According to Elias, the Rams are the second team to go from worst (14.0 points per game) to first (29.9 points per game) in scoring. With an MVP candidate in Todd Gurley and a balanced team (6th in defense and 2nd in special teams DVOA), L.A. is the most likely team to finish on top of the NFC. At +470, the 3rd best odds to win the conference, Sean McVay’s team is the best value bet on the board.
The Eagles (+500) are another team underpriced by Bookmakers according to our simulations. Nick Foles is no Carson Wentz but a first-round bye plus home-field advantage can’t go overlooked by bettors.
Odds to win the NFC
Team / Odds / Projected Probability (%)
Vikings / +172 / 25.2
Saints / +435 / 11.9
Rams / +470 / 27.2
Eagles / +500 / 25.9
Falcons / +900 / 3.4
Panthers / +1150 / 6.4
Super Bowl
Unless you skipped right to the Super Bowl section you probably have a good idea of which teams are offering bettors value to win the NFL Championship. A week ago, we encouraged our readers to take the Rams and Jags. Nothing has changed other than each team’s odds inflating slightly after Week 17 losses. These teams are mirror images of each other, elite defenses (top 5 against the pass) that rely on strong rushing attacks to drive the offense.
If you are feeling frisky, there is also value on a Rams-Jags Super Bowl (+5750). The implied probability suggests a 1.7% chance we get this exact matchup, according to our numbers it occurs 2.5% of the time.
Odds to win the Super Bowl
Team / Odds / Projected Probability (%)
Patriots / +220 / 26.7
Vikings / +425 / 12.5
Steelers / +575 / 14.1
Saints / +950 / 5.3
Rams / +1150 / 15.1
Eagles / +1250 / 10.7
Jaguars / +1750 / 7.5
Chiefs / +1750 / 3.8
Falcons / +2300 / 1.2
Panthers / +3000 / 2.9
Titans / +10000 / 0.2
Bills / +11500 / 0.1Comment
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