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FALCONS AT RAMS (-5.5) | O/U: 48
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Betting market ...
This line opened Rams -4.5, moved up to -6.5, and bumped back down to -5.5 on Thursday evening. Such a big move across a key number (-6) indicates this could be sharp money. With the ticket count exactly 50-50, it will be interesting to see if the public takes more of a side as the game gets closer.
Injury watch ...
The Falcons will have to make do without LG Andy Levitre (triceps, IR), but RB Devonta Freeman (knee, not listed on final report), WR Julio Jones (rib/ankle, not listed), C Alex Mack (calf, not listed), TE Levine Toilolo (knee, not listed) and WR Taylor Gabriel (hamstring, not listed) are all good to go. The Rams’ decision to rest starters in Week 17 appears to have paid off, as their only injured players — LB Mark Barron (Achilles, questionable) and WR/KR Pharoh Cooper (shoulder, questionable) — are expected to give it a go Saturday night.
What the metrics say ...
Expect a big day out of the Falcons’ RB duo: The Rams rank 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). LA has been much better against the pass (third in pass DVOA), but they lost Kayvon Webster for the year a few weeks ago and haven’t really been tested since by a productive passing attack.
The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season.
DFS edge ...
Todd Gurley’s ascension as a receiver can’t be overstated. He converted 84 targets in 2015-16 into a 64-515-0 line, but exploded for a 64-788-6 line on 87 looks this season. This would make Gurley the PPR WR25 before taking into consideration his rushing production. A receiving floor this high is unfair when coupled with Gurley’s plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities on the ground, as he’s converted a league-high 18 carries inside the 5-yard line into a league-high nine touchdowns from that distance. Throw in 15 rushes of 15-plus yards (tied for fourth among all backs), and we have a three-down machine who was cooked up by the fantasy gods. Gurley carries this week’s highest projected ceiling, floor, and projected Plus/Minus among all skill position players in our Pro Models.
Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game.
LA has one of the least-impactful home-field advantages in football, and the Rams are missing their stud kicker, Greg Zuerlein. With the Falcons’ excellent red zone defense (fifth overall), we’ll be seeing plenty of Zuerlein’s backup, Sam Ficken, who has already missed an extra point and a 35-yarder in his two games this season. I’ll take the more experienced team that’s coming into the playoffs with momentum and advantages in some key advanced metrics.
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Betting market ...
This line opened Rams -4.5, moved up to -6.5, and bumped back down to -5.5 on Thursday evening. Such a big move across a key number (-6) indicates this could be sharp money. With the ticket count exactly 50-50, it will be interesting to see if the public takes more of a side as the game gets closer.
Injury watch ...
The Falcons will have to make do without LG Andy Levitre (triceps, IR), but RB Devonta Freeman (knee, not listed on final report), WR Julio Jones (rib/ankle, not listed), C Alex Mack (calf, not listed), TE Levine Toilolo (knee, not listed) and WR Taylor Gabriel (hamstring, not listed) are all good to go. The Rams’ decision to rest starters in Week 17 appears to have paid off, as their only injured players — LB Mark Barron (Achilles, questionable) and WR/KR Pharoh Cooper (shoulder, questionable) — are expected to give it a go Saturday night.
What the metrics say ...
Expect a big day out of the Falcons’ RB duo: The Rams rank 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). LA has been much better against the pass (third in pass DVOA), but they lost Kayvon Webster for the year a few weeks ago and haven’t really been tested since by a productive passing attack.
The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season.
DFS edge ...
Todd Gurley’s ascension as a receiver can’t be overstated. He converted 84 targets in 2015-16 into a 64-515-0 line, but exploded for a 64-788-6 line on 87 looks this season. This would make Gurley the PPR WR25 before taking into consideration his rushing production. A receiving floor this high is unfair when coupled with Gurley’s plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities on the ground, as he’s converted a league-high 18 carries inside the 5-yard line into a league-high nine touchdowns from that distance. Throw in 15 rushes of 15-plus yards (tied for fourth among all backs), and we have a three-down machine who was cooked up by the fantasy gods. Gurley carries this week’s highest projected ceiling, floor, and projected Plus/Minus among all skill position players in our Pro Models.
Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game.
LA has one of the least-impactful home-field advantages in football, and the Rams are missing their stud kicker, Greg Zuerlein. With the Falcons’ excellent red zone defense (fifth overall), we’ll be seeing plenty of Zuerlein’s backup, Sam Ficken, who has already missed an extra point and a 35-yarder in his two games this season. I’ll take the more experienced team that’s coming into the playoffs with momentum and advantages in some key advanced metrics.
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