Wild Card Weekend Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Since Andy Reid became head coach of the Chiefs, the Under is 27-14 (65.9%) in games played at Arrowhead Stadium.

[New York Knight]

The Titans have ruled RB DeMarco Murray out with a bad knee sprain, as expected.

[New York Knight]

Should Bettors be Nervous about Surprise Teams that Make the NFL Playoffs?


The Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars are two of the biggest surprise teams of 2017. A year ago, the Rams ended their first season back in L.A. with a 4-12 record that included seven straight losses once they turned the ball over to top overall pick, Jared Goff. In Jacksonville, the Jags finished 2016 with a 3-13 record. It was the sixth-straight season of five or fewer victories.

Fast forward a year and the outlook for each franchise is much improved. Los Angeles (11-5) led the league in scoring and won the NFC West for the first time since 2003, while Jacksonville (10-6), on the strength of the No. 1 defense by DVOA, won the AFC South for the first time ever.

Heading into Wild Card Weekend, the Rams (-6.5 vs. Falcons) and Jags (-8.5 vs. Bills) have high expectations but should bettors be concerned about backing teams after a dramatic year-to-year turnaround?

L.A. and Sacksonville saw their win totals jump by seven games apiece. Since 1990, 23 other franchises had a win total improvement of seven or more games. Three of the teams didn’t make the playoffs, if we exclude them from our sample and focus just on the postseason participants, the results will make fans of the Rams and Jags, as well as bettors, nervous.



Of the 23 teams, only seven made it to the conference championship game, three reached the Super Bowl and one, the 1999 St. Louis Rams, won it all. In all, the teams that made a big jump from one year to the next went 13-18 (41.9%) straight-up and 9-22 (29.0%) ATS in the playoffs.

Oddsmakers expect the Rams and Jags to advance to the divisional round but history is not on their side to cover or make deep postseason runs.

[New York Knight]

6 consecutive games without multiple pass TD for Matt Ryan ... Longest streak of his career.


But, in the playoffs …

15-3 TD / INT ratio in last 5 playoff games

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...


These are the bets getting the highest percentage of the money in this weekend’s NFL playoff games.


TENN / KC under 44 ... 84%

BUFF / JAX under 39.5 ... 75%

LAR -6.5 ... 55%

CAR +7 ... 55%

ATL / LAR under 48.5 ... 55%

[New York Knight]

Alex Smith ranked 1st in passer rating and 3rd in ANY/A


Marcus Mariota ranked 27th in passer rating and 22nd in ANY/A

[New York Knight]

Two big spreads for the Wild Card round ... KC -8½ and JAC -8½


Since 1996, teams favored by -7.5 or more in the Wild Card round are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS.

[New York Knight]

When was the last time favorites went 4-0 ATS in Wild Card Weekend?

Last year and one other time (2012) since 2003


Best year for dogs?

2013 when they went 3-0-1 ATS

[New York Knight]

Titans vs Chiefs


The Chiefs have won their last three home games by an average of 14.6 points.

The Titans averaged just 17.5 points per game on the road this season, along with the third fewest yards per game on the road (270.8).

Marcus Mariota on the road this season: five TDs, 11 INTs, 69.1 QB rating.

In four career games vs the Titans, Alex Smith has a 1-3 SU record with three TDs and eight INTs.

The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Chiefs.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs' last eight games. The average combined score in these games was 42.25.

The Chiefs are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games in the late afternoon.

The Titans are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games on the road.

The Titans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.

The Titans are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games against AFC West teams.

The Titans are 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a win.

The Titans are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on the road against teams with winning records.

[New York Knight]

Falcons vs Rams


The Falcons are 0-5 SU in their last five games as an underdog. They lost these games by an average of seven points.

The Falcons are 1-19 SU in their last 20 games as an underdog of six or more points.

The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at night.

The Rams are 3-11 SU and ATS in their last 14 games at night.

The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdog.

The Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the West Coast.

The favored team is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in this matchup.

Since 1991, the Falcons are 3-9 SU and ATS as an underdog in the playoffs.

Over his last four games, Todd Gurley has 749 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns.

Matt Ryan posted a 78.7 QB rating in December — his worst of any month this season.

The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last seven games against the Rams.

The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.

The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last five games. The average combined score in these games was 34.6.

[New York Knight]

Bills vs Jaguars


The Jaguars have won five straight home games by an average of 16.6 points.

The Bills are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games on the road.

The Jaguars rank first in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games. Buffalo ranks 28th over the course of the entire season.

The Jaguars averaged the third-most yards per game in the NFL at home (337.3).

The total has gone OVER in the Bills' last five games against the Jaguars. The average combined score in these games was 55.

Blake Bortles has a 98 QB rating at home compared with a 69.4 QB rating on the road.

The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last seven games in the early afternoon.

The Bills are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road in January.

[New York Knight]

Panthers vs Saints


The Panthers rank 31st in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games. New Orleans ranks first over the course of the entire season.

In five career home playoff games, Drew Brees has 12 TD passes and 1 INT.

The Panthers are 1-3 SU in their last four games against the Saints.

The Panthers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Saints.

The total has gone OVER in six of the Panthers' last seven games against
the Saints. The average combined score in those games was 57.1.

New Orleans is first in the league with 30.1 points per game at home.

The Saints are 5-0 SU in their last five home playoff games.

The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.

The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

The Panthers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games in the late afternoon.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last seven games.

The Panthers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road against the Saints.

The Panthers are 1-6 SU in their last seven divisional road games.

[New York Knight]

What Refs Bettors Need to Know for Wild Card Weekend


Jeff Triplette, Ed Hochuli, John Hussey and Tony Corrente will lead the four crews officiating the Wild Card games. Referees are expected to be impartial but are there tendencies that bettors can exploit?


Note: Records include regular season and playoff games since 2003.


Jeff Triplette: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Tennessee Titans


◾Favorites: 81-67-2 ATS (54.7%, +10.82 units)

◾Home Teams: 68-77-2 ATS (46.9%, -11.57 units)

◾Overs: 76-70-4 (52.1%, +2.36 units)

◾Chiefs: 6-3 ATS

◾Titans: 5-8 ATS


If you like betting the favorite, 65% of spread dollars have moved the Chiefs from -7.5 to -8.5, Jeff Triplette is the zebra for you. The chalk is 81-67-2 (54.7%) ATS when Triplette officiates, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $1,082 betting his games – most profitable in the Bet Labs database.



Ed Hochuli: Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons


◾Favorites: 66-89-4 ATS (42.6%, -26.29 units)

◾Home Teams: 72-81-4 ATS (47.1%, -12.15 units)

◾Overs: 76-81-2 (48.4%, -8.14 units)

◾Rams: 6-4 ATS

◾Falcons: 1-8 ATS


Is Ed Hochuli a dog or cat person? Based on this information I’d say the muscle-bound NFL rules enforcer has a thing for the pooches. Underdogs are 89-66-4 (57.4%) ATS and big dogs, teams getting 6 or more points, have gone 36-19-2 (65.5%) ATS when biceps-Ed oversees a game.



John Hussey: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Buffalo Bills


◾Favorites: 26-19-1 ATS (57.8%, +5.32 units)

◾Home Teams: 23-21-1 ATS (52.3%, +0.50 units)

◾Overs: 18-27-1 (40.0%, -9.89 units)

◾Jaguars: 0-2 ATS

◾Bills: 1-1 ATS


We don’t have a lot of information about Hussey as this is only his third season as a crew chief.



Tony Corrente: New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers


◾Favorites: 72-78-3 ATS (48.0%, -8.34 units)

◾Home Teams: 76-71-3 ATS (51.7%, +2.63 units)

◾Overs: 64-87-2 (42.4%, -25.41 units)

◾Saints: 5-4 ATS

◾Panthers: 7-2 ATS


The total for Saints-Panthers is sitting at 48.5, tied for the highest in the Wild Card round. A majority of bets and dollars are on the Over, which could burn bettors. Corrente is the least profitable Over official in our database going 64-87-2 (42.4%). In high total games (46 or more points), the Over is 22-36 (37.9%) when Corrente is on the field.



Placing a wager based solely on the past results of the referee officiating the game would be unwise, but this is one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler. Knowledge leads to an edge, an edge turns into profit.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on Wild Card Weekend


"Line heads north in all 4 games. Sharp action on Rams & Saints. Bills drawing bulk of tickets vs. Jags, but more money on JAX. And ticket count 2/1 on Chiefs at home vs. Titans"

[New York Knight]

TITANS AT CHIEFS (-9) | O/U: 44

Saturday, 4:20 p.m. ET | ESPN


Betting market ...

Despite the move from -7 to -9, there’s not much to talk about in terms of sharp or public action. One interesting angle here: KC is a big parlay/teaser play, so this game could set up the entire weekend for the books/public



What the metrics say ...

The Titans are a total fraud. They’re one of only two playoff teams with a negative point differential — and they played one of the easiest schedules in the league. But the Titans actually match up fairly well with KC. Their rush defense (fourth overall in yards per game and yards per carry allowed) can contain the Chiefs’ ground game. And Tennessee should be able to run on KC’s 32nd-ranked rush defense in DVOA.



Injury watch ...

Titans RB DeMarco Murray (knee) has already been ruled out, meaning we’ll get Round 2 of the Derrick Henry Show vs. the Chiefs’ putrid rush defense (see above). Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ backup RB stable is far from healthy, as both RB Akeem Hunt (ankle, out) and RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas (leg, out) were placed on IR following Week 17. CB Phillip Gaines (elbow, out) joins them, but the Chiefs’ defense at least tentatively expects to have contributors DL Jarvis Jenkins (knee, questionable), DE Tamba Hali (knee, questionable), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (shoulder, questionable), DL Bennie Logan (knee, questionable), and DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle, questionable). The Chiefs’ offense will welcome back RB Charcandrick West (flu, probable), while WR Albert Wilson (hamstring, probable) will look to ball out against a Titans secondary that could be without CB Brice McCain (hamstring, questionable) and feature a less-than-100% CB Logan Ryan (illness, questionable).



According to weather data, winds of 10 mph are expected at kickoff, along with 30-degree temps. Marcus Mariota has played just two games in temperatures below freezing during his college and pro career. He won and covered both contests. One came last week vs. the Jags. The other? Last December, when Mariota trailed by 10 points entering the fourth quarter and led the Titans back to victory on the road in … Arrowhead.



Sneaky storylines ...

The Chiefs struggle in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 42% of their drives inside the 20. That ranks 29th in the NFL, and it’s the worst mark among all playoff teams. KC also ranks 29th with 65.2 penalty yards per game, while the Titans are much more disciplined (49.1, fifth overall).



DFS edge ...

Alex Smith, 2017’s QB4 in average DraftKings PPG, scored 25-plus DraftKings points in five games, an incredible feat considering Smith passed that threshold on just three occasions in 2014-16. He’s set up well against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Smith is especially appealing on FanDuel, where he is the highest-rated quarterback in the Levitan and CSURAM88 Models, although he is projected to be the highest-owned QB across the industry.



The under is worth a strong look, especially since you can count on Reid botching the time management at the end of a half to cost his team points. KC’s ability to take care of the ball (league-best 11 turnovers all season) will be the difference; Tennessee had a minus-4 turnover differential this season, worst among all playoff teams.