Final 4 Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Sunday will be 5th time Brady has played a playoff game against a defense that had 50 or more sacks


His numbers in those games ...

54.9% completion rate
4 TDs
5 INTs
13 sacks
2-2 record (SU and ATS)

[New York Knight]

According to oddsmakers, New England would still be the favorite if Brady were to be ruled out ...

Hoyer’s last playoff start was terrible ... IMO the game should be a pk or Jags favored ...

[New York Knight]

Last year Brady threw for his AFC- champ-game career high 384 yards and 3 TDs ... But these games tend not to be his biggest stat-line performances.

Here's how he did in the others:

[New York Knight]

Ian Rapoport ...

"Two tidbits from Patriots QB Tom Brady’s thumb injury: 1. It was gushing blood when it happened. 2. He was “zinging it pretty good today,” source said"

[New York Knight]

This is the first time in Brady's postseason career that he's been officially listed as questionable for a playoff game.

He's been listed as probable 17 previous times in the playoffs, going 11-6 in those games.

[New York Knight]

Michael Felger (NBC Sports Boston) on Brady injury:


“No fracture. No ligament. Just a cut from hitting the buckle on someone’s helmet. Four stitches around the knuckle, should not affect him"

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace ...


Patriots -7.5 (even) ... O/U 45


60% of the point spread money is on Jacksonville

[New York Knight]

In low-total games (<40 points) where wind is a non-factor (<5 mph) the OVER is 161-112-4 (59.0%) since 2003 including the playoffs


Total for MIN vs PHI is 39, and the forecast calls for average wind speeds of 3 mph

[New York Knight]

AFC Title Game strength on strength matchup ...

Patriots 5th best red zone defense vs. Jaguars top red zone offense (scored TDs on 68% of possessions)

[New York Knight]

Underdogs are 90-66-4 ATS when Ed Hochuli is the ref

He is the crew chief for MIN vs PHI

[New York Knight]

Since 1977 home teams are 28-12 in AFC Championship Games ... NFC home teams are 27-13

[New York Knight]

The spread has settled at Patriots -7.5 at all 13 Vegas books on Don Best Sports odds screen

All are -110 both ways, except -7.5 -105 /+7.5 -115 at MGM Race And Sports and Boyd Gaming

[New York Knight]

Since 2003, when the line moves against a favorite in the playoffs, like the Patriots -9.5 to -7.5 ... teams are 11-29-2 (27.5%) ATS

[New York Knight]

Favorites of 7 or more points, again like the Patriots, are 2-12 ATS in the playoffs when the line moves against them

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on JAX-NE


Patriots open -9, got to -7 Friday on Brady injury news. Now. 7.5. On pointspread betting

"2.5X more Jacksonville money on account, 1.5X more New England money over the counter. Sharps on Jags, public on Pats."

On moneyline, "6X more Jacksonville money on account." Over-the-counter moneyline betting is split"

Total opened 46.5, dipped to 45, now 46

"2X more over money on account, 2.5X more under money over the counter. Sharps on over, public on under."