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Looks like I will not be getting Elkins @+300. Oh well. Might pass on it
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Ok, am I crazy?
I am VERY confident in Struve this weekend.Comment
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I've also been thinking of betting Struve.
Oh, wait. . . I just did.
If he loses, I'm blaming you, PP.I heart cockComment
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I haven't bet on him yet, but I've been watching vids for the past 30 min or so on the two...I really think Struve gets it done. Once Struve brings it to the mat, it's over imo. Johnson's KO power scares me of course...but I just have to keep telling myself "Don't be scared homie"Comment
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Mir by sub is +500, but Mir ITD is +513. bol.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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The only thing I can think of is that a lot of stupid people just run out and bet Mir by submission without looking at all the props. And it drove the line down. I have always thought that they were all interlinked somehow with some fancy algorithms, like if you bet Mir straight, it would move the props some... but I may be giving the book too much credit. It might just be a balance between Mir by sub and Not Mir by sub.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Lol, yeah you see alot of that on 5dimes.. I know yesterday Cain ITD was -170, and by KO/TKO was -180. Or JDS in round 1 was -140, Fight does not start round 2 was at -120Comment
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I think I am going to wait for Struve ITD actually, figure that will be around +100 to +105. However, I am not going to go as big as I originally planned (was going to bet to win 5u). I was listening to this podcast earlier and this guy brought up a great point about Struve's wins on the ground. Struve hasn't gotten the sub in any of his UFC fights because he initiated the takedown. In the Gormley fight, he was taken down before he got the triangle. In the Stojnic fight, he was dropped but Struve got the better of a scramble before sinking the RNC. In the Barry fight, Barry basically shot for a double leg. Then I got thinking and can add some more to this: In the Browne fight, Browne got the TD before Struve scrambled and locked up that darce before Browne got out of it. In the McCorkle fight, he was taken down before pulling off the sweep into mount and getting the TKO finish. In the Herman fight, he got Herman down to the ground via punches.
So basically what I am getting at, has Struve taken anybody down in the UFC besides Paul Buentello?Comment
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Okay, PP . . . you're fucking me up. STOP IT!I heart cockComment
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Struve took down Herman at the beginning of round 2, clinched and tripped him down.
I'm actually curious what the line is going to be on Struve by KO/TKO, if he gets that full mount then Lavar is basically going to be helpless and will gas horribly (if he hasn't already) while Struve punches away, could see a McCorkle or Herman style finish.Comment
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I think that if it goes to the ground, Struve should be able to finish it without Lavar getting back up. But if Lavar just comes out and blasts him it could be a short night for Struve, who doesn't have the greatest defense.I heart cockComment
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Thanks, I wasn't too sure about that one. I want to watch that fight again.
I thought the same thing about (T)KO prop, it could have some value since everybody seems to think Struve's only out is by sub. But Lavar Johnson has some very bad cardio, it's pretty embarassing to watch.
One thing I noticed about Lavar Johnson's recent UFC wins is that he just "tees off" on guys against the fence while standing pretty far back due to his reach. He has also towered over these two opponents (Barry and Beltran) and was able to basically trap these guys against the fence with his punches. I don't think he will be able to do that to Struve and repeatedly hit his chin. Lavar showed some hard punches to the body against Beltran, so he might attempt to wear Struve out with these.Comment
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