UFC 148 Sonnen vs Silva II

[poopoo333]

Maybe they think that it's Tito's only chance to win. Knock Forrest out or lose the fight. And really, that's probably the truth.

Based on two fights and two split decisions I think Tito is more than likely to get a decision win rather than a stoppage. I put 1u on Tito by decision @+652, it is going to be easy to hedge as well assuming he doesn't win ITD.

[SPX]

That last fight was a very CLEAR win for Forrest in my opinion. It shouldn't have been a SD at all. Tito MIGHT be able to win the first round, but Forrest wins the last two clearly and probably all three.

Tito stops Forrest or he loses.

[poopoo333]

I thought 1 and 2 were fairly close but I scored the fight 29-28 for Forrest.

[SPX]

I thought the first fight was very close and wasn't surprised by a split. But the second fight? When it went to the score cards I just sat back counting my money. I had no doubt that Forrest had won. I was at the bar and couldn't hear the announcement but when they raised Forrest's hand, well, I had just taken it as a given. It was only later that I learned it was a split, and when I did I was like WTF?

[poopoo333]

When it went to the score cards I just sat back counting my money.

What sportsbook did you use? Kinda wanna sign up if they paid you out that fast.

[SPX]

Nigga, you know what I mean.

[poopoo333]

I've bet this four times, all to win 1u:

Ortiz/Griffin goes 3 round distance



-135, -135, -140, -110


Based on the first two fights, why the hell is this line not -250+? Neither of them were close to being stopped. Is it because Tito got stopped in his last two? Against uber-Rashad? Against Lil Nog? Both whom fucked Tito's solarplex/body in the ass with their fists/knees? Is Forrest Griffin gonna do that? Naw nigga Naw. Tito dropped Bader...that's it..."fluke". I'd bet Bader @-500 again in a heart beat in a rematch FWIW.


I just think this line is crazy and I will probably keep betting it

[Svino]

Yeah, I think the theory is that Ortiz is so shot he'll crumple early. I agree that it's a great line, though.

[SPX]

Based upon Tito's last two performances, which WERE uncharacteristic and demonstrated a trend toward getting folded up, I actually would not be shocked to see Forrest stop him. At even money or around there, its a good bet, but far from a lock I'd say.

[MMA_scientist]

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (for middleweight title)
Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao (for interim bantamweight title)
Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz
Patrick Cote vs. Cung Le
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)

**Chad Mendes **vs. Cody McKenzie
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Gleison Tibau
Mike Easton vs. Ivan Menjivar
Riki Fukuda vs. Constantinos Philippou
Fabricio Camoes vs. Melvin Guillard
John Alessio vs. Shane Roller
Yoislandy Izquierdo vs. Rafaello Oliveira

[poopoo333]

Urijah Faber isn't even fighting Renan Barao on this card.

[poopoo333]

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Champ Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (for middleweight title)
• Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz
• Patrick Cote vs. Cung Le
• Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia
• Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie
• Mike Easton vs. Ivan Menjivar

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)

• Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Gleison Tibau
• Fabricio Camoes vs. Melvin Guillard
• Riki Fukuda vs. Constantinos Philippou
• John Alessio vs. Shane Roller

[poopoo333]

^^I guess most of those are "leans" without looking at the fights. The only ones I am "sure" about is Chael Sonnen and Forrest Griffin.

Le/Cote is hard to call.

I think Kim will be able to land more on Maia on the feet. Not sure if Kim will look to take Maia down or now, but I see him winning. I like DHK by decision @+150, I do not think he KOs Maia. Another BJJ weight cut question...yo scientist, how is Maia's first cut to 170 going to be?

Mendes is going to kill that homeless guy.

Gotta look at Menjivar/Easton, but I remember Easton being a big favorite in his past 2 fights and thinking it was unwarranted.

Nurmagomedov is that undefeated Sambo guy that looked real good against Kamal Shalorus..he was landing takedowns at will IIRC. The only problem is Tibau is huge (I saw him in person at FX 3...can't believe he makes 155), and has a similar style, but he is better at it with good striking. I just know Nurmagomedov can handle that type of wrestling style and counter it with his own wrestling. I expect him to be +200 or better so I'd bet it.

I took a picture with Guillard a few weeks ago and taught him RNC defense so he is gonna win.

Fukuda is basically a guess.

Alessio is just a fade...Shane Roller has burned me so many times betting.

[MMA_scientist]

Same thoughts, except I think Tibau will just be too good everywhere in addition to being bigger. Mendes is a lock.

[edman5555]

Sonnen and Forrest are not locks imo. If that is what you were saying PP. Cung le might be interesting at dog odds. Cote has big power though. I think Maia can probably take DHK. I wouldn't be suprised to see Maia gas in this one though. Maia gassing plus DHK's power could spell knockout. Mendes should kill Cody. A lot of tough calls on this card.