Nice writeup, PP.
-170 for Brenneman seems a little high. I guess I do favor him, but certainly not by that much. Unless something crazy happens with the line, I'll probably just stay away from that one.
I agree about Hettes/Brimage, though not to the tune of -600. Brimage surprised everyone against Maximo Blanco. I'd like to take Hettes in this one, but I'm really hoping to get him at -300 or better.
I'm hoping to get a good line on Igor. Y'all remember when Vinny was 2-4 in MMA and was getting cut by the UFC after losing a decision to Eliot Marshall? I'm not sure if he's that much better now or if he's just been fighting not-so-great fighters. But I do favor Igor here. Line predictions?
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Charlie Brenneman vs Kyle Noke
I have bet on Charlie Brenneman in every fight since his fight against Amilcar Alves...I really like his style in MMA when it comes to betting because he is one of those grinders and in my opinion he has been undervalued a bit. I've been burned a couple times betting on him as well (I'd bet on him at +250 again against Erick Silva though). In his fight against Noke, it is hard to tell what will happen. Noke is coming down from middleweight for the first time and he will have the size advantage. Both guys like to take their opponents down in their fights as neither of them have ever tried to force a stand up fight in the UFC. Noke has shown to have suspect takedown defense against Andrew Craig, but it is hard to gauge anything from that fight as Noke got injured during the fight (I think I remember this being said, but cannot find out anything talking about it on google) and I am not sure how bad that effected his performance. He also had some knee damage after the Ed Herman fight after he was heel hooked. With two recent injuries that have possibly hindered his training, he may not be 100% going into the Brenneman fight, especially with the added pressure of his weight cutting. As for Brenneman, he has shown some pretty good defensive wrestling against High, Story, and even Hendricks (IIRC...correct me if I'm wrong). On the ground, he does have a tendency to get put in some bad positions (see the Story and Silva fight). It is hard to tell if Brenneman and Noke will cancel each other's grappling games out, but I feel if one guy does get taken down more often than the other, it will be Noke as Brenneman sets a relentless pace and shoots/uses the cage. Noke tends to get the body lock/clinch and trips his opponent to the mat. I am not sure who is the better striker in this fight as I haven't seen both of them strike for any long periods of time. I believe Noke will have the power advantage in his hands while Brenneman has shown some chin issues.
I am picking Brenneman to win a decision with takedowns/pressure against the cage, but I am not as confident in him as I usually am. I don't know how he will handle the size difference (he didn't handle it well against Anthony Johnson) and if they cannot get each other down, I can see Noke tagging Brenneman on the feet. I would bet Brenneman up to -170 or so...but if he is somehow overvalued and Noke is a decent underdog I would take Noke.
Mitch Gagnon vs Walel Watson
Walel Watson is a very tall and rangy bantamweight..he is 5'11 with a 75" reach. Mitch Gagnon is more of the typical bantamweight: a midget...he is 5'6 with a 68" reach. Gagnon is a very aggressive fighter. He is very strong in the clinch and has an aggressive style, aggressive ground and pound, and an aggressive takedown game. There are two things about what I just said that need to be taken into consideration: His aggressiveness and fast pace drains his cardio, in every fight he seems to slow down after the first round of "blowing his load". Also, the opposition of his opponents where he has shown the aggressive takedown game and GNP game hasn't been THAT great. It is hard to tell if he will be able to employ this gameplan against good fighters in the UFC. He didn't show this in the Caraway fight because it was obvious he wanted to keep it on the feet Gagnon's obvious weakness besides his gas tank is his takedown defense and his defensive grappling. Although he is taken down easy, he has a lot of heart and fights hard even when he is evidently exhausted. On the ground, he is active and goes for subs/sub attempts from a dominant position and even while on his back. His problem with being on his back is that he seems to have lots of trouble getting back to his feet..it is hard to tell if this is a skill issue or the result of him being exhausted (or both). As for Walel Watson, his game plan is probably to keep it standing and win a striking match. He will need to use his reach and avoid Gagnon's aggressive clinch/takedown/striking game. Watson's striking defense is not that great either which doesn't bode well for him against Gagnon. Watson has shown poor takedown defense as well...he was easily taken down by Gibson, Jabouin, and (obviously) Dillashaw.
I definitely favor Gagnon in this fight. I believe he will be able to get inside, land some good shots, get takedowns if he wants, and be able to beat Watson up. Watson is a lengthy fighter so there is some worry that he will be able to wrap Gagnon up on the ground and pull off a sneaky choke of some sorts. There is also a worry about Gagnon's conditioning issues, if he fades Watson will be able to capitalize in the later part of the fight and put Gagnon in some bad positions. I will be betting Gagnon up to -160 or so...if he is somehow the underdog I will put a decent sized bet on him.
Seth Baczynski vs Simeon Thoresen
Baczynski is a big welterweight, tends to use his size in his fights and comes forward a lot. He has not shown the best takedown defense. His wins aren't over that high of level opponents; when he loses, they are against opponents that are a step up in competition...and yes, I know he fought Matt Brown. He is a decent striker but does not show anything special. Thoresen is a very aggressive grappler on the mat with solid takedowns. This was not shown as much in his debut UFC fight as it does in his other fights overseas. He is primarily a grappler overall. According to the play by play of UFC on Fuel 2, he was stiff in the stand up department as well as susceptible to strikes in that fight.
I don't want to bet this fight at all. Thoresen should have an advantage on the mat, and he will be OK if he is put on his back due to his active scrambling and submission game. I believe Baczynski will look to keep it on the feet. Thoresen has a lot of unknowns in his game, and I don't think I will bet this at all.
Jimmy Hettes vs Marcus Brimage
Yeah, there is nothing much to say. Jimmy Hettes is going to fuck Marcus Brimage up. He will finish him on the ground or sub him in under 2 rounds. Hettes is an aggressive grappler who is real good...he made a BJJ black belt Nam Phan look horrible on the mat. Brimage's kryptonite in MMA is the ground game and Hettes is going to exploit the shit out of that. I won't be surprised to see Hettes open at -550.
I will bet Hettes all day, even at -600.
Vinny Magalhaes vs Igor Pokrajac
I am hoping Scientist has some input on this one, he knows all the BJJ fags. Vinny is obviously going to be the superior grappler, BJJ is his game. From his recent fights, I see that he doesn't shoot for doubles/singles much, as he prefers to clinch up and trip his opponents to the ground. I am not sure if this is due to his recent fights being in M1 (they have a ring)...thoughts? On the ground, Vinny is very active and comfortable, he shows great sweeps and is great at getting in dominant positions. On the feet, he is very rudimentary and has pretty poor defense. He has a recent TKO win against Zayats, but that was kind of a "fluke"...he was getting beat that entire fight on the feet (and was even getting beat up on the ground) before landing that head kick in round 3. Magalhaes has pretty suspect cardio, but he doesn't give up..he always tries to get the win. This is evident in his last two fights: he was arguably losing the first two rounds of each fight, was noticeable tired, and still got the finish in round 3 in both fights. He also showed conditioning issues against Victor Nemkov, and he was very tired well before he even got the sub (mounted gogoplata). As for Pokrajac, he has a tendency to back his opponents up against the cage, throw combinations and immediately shoot in for a takedown. As long as Igor isn't a total idiot, he will not do this against Magalhaes. Pokrajac does not have the best takedown defense but he is usually able to get back up when he is taken down, and when he does, he tends to throw lots of strikes and "tee off" as Joe Rogan would call it. One tendency he has on the ground is to put himself in poor positions; he did this aganist Bonnar and Matyushenko. When he was on the floor against both of them, he turtled up in each of the fights, which is not a good idea against Magalhaes. Pokrajac is also susceptible to shots in the thai clinch as shown against Bonnar and Maldonado.
I slightly favor Pokrajac, although everything I just said makes it seem like Magalhaes would be the play I am considering. I do not believe Pokrajac is going to instantly be submitted or anything if the fight hits the ground. As long as he fights smart, he will do his best to avoid getting into any serious danger. Pokrajac has the power/striking edge and I believe he will hurt Magalhaes on the feet. I could see this going anyway, however as Pokrajac does seem to fight in close and end up in the clinch a lot, which is where Magalhaes gets his takedowns. I feel that if this goes to round 2 and 3, Pokrajac will be able to stay out of danger on the mat and beat Magalhaes up standing. As for a bet, it depends entirely on the line.
Cub Swanson vs Charles Oliveira
Starting off with Cub Swanson..I feel that he is actually a pretty damn good fighter and he is underrated a lot (by me as well). He has great speed and has some pretty good striking. He shows the ability to get in and out with his strikes and has great footwork. When he lands, he is not standing in front of you after he lands, he gets out of the way. He does seem to telegraph some of his strikes, as he tends to reach and lunge with his punches, but this has never seemed to be a problem for him. Due to his flashy kicks, it puts him off balance at times and it leaves him open for the takedown. Speaking of takedowns, Swanson has not shown the best T3D. However, he has decent takedowns of his own and he threatens with the guillotine a lot, even if it is to just make space and stand back up. He is able to be kept at bay with reach (see Roop fight), but he can adjust in these situations, get inside, and take over. Moving on to Oliveira..we all know his game. He is an aggressive striker with an awesome submission game. He is very active on both the feet and on the ground. Standing, he throws LOTS of kicks (which could be a bad thing for him, will Swanson go for the takedown?) Oliveira is also very active off of his back, he always tries to seep and get submission, he does not seem to slow down at all. He does not have the best T3D, but I don't think it will matter as Swanson will PROBABLY try and keep it standing. Another problem with Oliveira is his tendency to throw flashy kicks and knees which will make him susceptible to TDs. Also, Oliveira tends to walk his opponents down, but with somebody that fights and moves like Swanson, I don't believe that's a good idea.
I slightly favor Oliveira in this fight, I think he is just a little bit better every where. However, I could see Swanson getting a questionable decision as I can see him getting top position in parts of this fight.
Matt Hamill vs Vladimir Matyushenko
I think this is a pretty even match up with question marks for both fighters. They both pack some power in their punches, are both wrestlers, and both seem to have fallen in love with their hands. It will be difficult to predict with the similar skillsets, Matyushenko's age and lack of getting out of round 1 lately, and with Hamill's coming out of retirement.
I will probably not bet this fight, it is too tough to call and has lots of variables.
TJ Grant vs Evan DUnham
TJ Grant looks great at lightweight compared to welterweight. He shows some good grappling and wrestling in his fights at LW, especially against Shane Roller. He was able to take down the wrestler and pretty much dominate. On the sub, Grant hunts for submissions and is not shy to try and grab an arm from guard...he just goes for it. His apparent weakness is his T3D, as he has been taken down and controlled by DHK, Chonan, and Almeida who were at welterweight. It is hard to tell if he will have this same weakness against guys who are not as big. Evan Dunham is a great and diverse striker who mixes his strikes real well. His biggest weakness is the fact that he points his chin straight up in the air while being pressured with power shots and has a tendency to get tagged with overhand punches (see Escudero, Guillard, Griffin fights). Dunham's T3D isn't the best, but he shows a great ability to get up. Regarding this, he does end up on his back a little more often that he should as he is not afraid to grab a submission to give up a position that is superior on the judge's score cards. Dunham has solid takedowns of his own and I will not be surprised to see him initiating any takedowns against Grant.
I favor Dunham in this fight. I think Dunham will be a step above in both grapplng and striking departments and that Dunham will steal the fight with his better striking as well as an added takedown in the fight.
I didn't look at Joe Benavidez/Demetrious Johnson or Lance Benoist/Sean Pierson yet. I am also picking Jones against Belfort for obvious reasons. Jones will take him down easily, just like his brother did at UFC 142Leave a comment:
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Where are you getting that from? Dana specifically tells Ariel on the video I posted that 152 will be renamed 151.Leave a comment:
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Will they change this card to UFC 151 or will that number be lost and relegated to a trivia question?Leave a comment:
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