UFC on FOX 6 January 26th

[Thewisemann]

Cerrone, Lamas, probably Guida, maybe Guida by Dec. Maybe small on Vladdy if he is a big dog.

[Thewisemann]

Maybe mighty mouse I have to research it first, but most likely a no bet for me.

[edman5555]

I was thinking about that one too but Dodson seems like a decent wrestler with some power in his hands.

[SPX]

I'm officially not really liking this card for betting.

[poopoo333]

I lost my ass HARD last night on Bisping and Tavares...my two favorite plays of the damn card. SO, I need to look at this card very hard and try to make up some lost ground.

[poopoo333]

I really like Demetrious Johnson to beat John Dodson, but damn...-225 in a midget fight is risky. They always tend to be so damn close.

[SPX]

Agreed on all counts. I kinda want to pull the trigger on MM but who the fuck knows how this fight is going to go.

[poopoo333]

[edman5555]

What is everyones opinion on hatsu hioki versus clay guida? I get the impression that hioki is very dangerous on the ground but his standup is so so. Guida is no k1 champ thouh so i am a little undecided about this one. I lean guida but could use some input.

Wiseman, you lean guida. Can you tell us why?

[SPX]

Guida's probably just gonna wrestle him up for 3 rounds. But I wouldn't be totally shocked if Hioki treated him like he treated Bartimus. I don't expect it, though.

[Ludo]

Guida wins via bobble head standing and top control smothering on the ground. Hioki is a great grappler and all but Guida made a living out of grapple fucking guys in a much more talent rich division for years now. He'll be the bigger guy with the better wrestling. Hioki doesn't have the size to fend off those takedowns or the technical striking/striking power to make Guida think twice about wading in to dive for a takedown either.

That's assuming Guida's weight cut doesn't fuck him up of course.

[edman5555]

Guida is usually a cardio machine. Even if the weight cut huets him he will be able to go three rounds. I would be worried about hioki submitting him though.

[edman5555]

Im doing some research on Rafael Natal Versus Sean Spencer right now. I am thinking Natal might be a good bet. Spencer seems kinda mediocre. He is 25 years old, started training around 19 years old or so. Went pro in 2009. Was a high school football player. No mention of wrestling so far. Golden gloves winner somewhere. He's from texas so I assume it is around there. Could be regional. I doubt it is a state title because I googled his name + golden gloves and couldn't find anything.

I looked through all of Spencers opponents. Their records are as follows starting with the most recent. Wins: 5-1, 4-3, 14-6, 3-2, 11-4, 2-2, 13-4, 4-4, 3-2. The 13-4 guy had a lot fewer wins at the time of the fight.

He lost to one guy named Ali Hanjani. He is currently 2-3. It was by triangle. I am trying to find information about this guy. Maybe he is a BJJ wiz. If he isn't it could be a big deal because Natal is good on the ground. If some crappy ground guy could tap out Sean Spencer in 2011 then his ground game might suck. I doubt it though, 2 of his 3 losses are by submission and he has a submission loss on his amateur record from 2010.

Ok this gets better. Spencer is normally a welterweight but he is stepping up to middleweight for this fight. He is filling in as an injury replacement. It is looking like Magnus(Natals original opponent) was injured a couple of days ago. Spencers last fight was in August. I don't know if he is in shape but it doesn't sound as though he has had much time to prepare.

I got a fight video of him fighting Joseph Daily(4-3).

http://www.fightvideomma.com/2012/03/sean-spencer-vs-joseph-daily-fight.html

The announcer in the fight mentioned that Spencer had 25 amatuer boxing matches with 23 wins. So I guess we can refer to him as a good boxer. Could be close. Spencer doesn't have a lot of knockouts on his record. Only two and they are the first two guys he ever fought so they were pretty inexperienced inside the cage. Natals been knocked out three times in his career though. One was that hail mary kick from Craig. The other ones were from guys who were nothing special.

Advantage has to go to Natal. I guess we'll have to see how shitty the line is.

Anyone have an opinion on this one? I am probably going to bet it.

[Ludo]

Guida is usually a cardio machine. Even if the weight cut huets him he will be able to go three rounds. I would be worried about hioki submitting him though.

I'm not worried about Hioki submitting Guida to be honest. Hioki isn't really a very active submission guy, he's much more interested in gaining a position and controlling his opponent.

[edman5555]

Half his wins are by submission. He is at least good at it. The vast majority of them are guard submissions. Triangles and armbars. Who knows if guida is going to try and take him down.