UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold

[mike]

I am also thinking about Tibau over Cholish.

Looking over the matches for this weekend and I see alot of potential close fights. I will probably make a bet on Tibau as my only bet this weekend. Unless he has a bad weight cut, I see him taking this fight. He's just a better fighter all around. Bmaker has him at -230 which is terrible compared to other books so I havent pulled the trigger yet. I would still bet him at -230, just feel bad placing a bet at this line when other books have him at -200 -.-'
Dunham- dos anjos, Dias-Lentz, Gashimov-Lineker, Cariaso- Da Silva will probably all be close fights.. Have no read on those fights. Anjos will probably edge Dunham with his speed.
Lentz is better on the feet but I am not sure he can stop Dias from pressing him against the cage and take him down. If he can make it a non-grappling match, he'll win the fight imo.
Leaning on Gashimov to take Lineker down for 3 rounds.
How good is Cariaso's tdd? Can he stop Da Silva from taking him down?

[edman5555]

What time does this start tomorrow?

[Ludo]

What time does this start tomorrow?

UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold

Date: May 18, 2013

Location: Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Venue: Arena Jaragua

Broadcast: FX, FUEL TV, Facebook

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)

Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold
Chris Camozzi* vs. Ronaldo Souza
Joao Zeferino* vs. Rafael Natal
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 6 p.m. ET)

Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz
Mike Rio vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos
Michel Richard dos Prazeres vs. Paulo Thiago*
Azamat Gashimov vs. John Lineker
Roger Hollett vs. Fabio Maldonado

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4:30 p.m. ET)

John Cholish vs. Gleison Tibau
Chris Cariaso vs. Jussier Formiga
Jeremy Larsen vs. Lucas Martins

[SPX]

Damn. Sucks I already turned my cable box in.

[edman5555]

I just watched an interview with Belfort and the interviewer asked him how he felt about being pegged as the underdog. He claimed he's under God's odds. I thought that was the best answer I have ever heard.

Anyways. Rockhold looked really emotional at the weigh ins. I am thinking the pressure is getting to him. First time in the UFC, winner could get a title shot, in Brazil, Main event and against the most dangerous guy he has ever fought. I will probably be betting Belfort.

[edman5555]

What do you guys think of Tibau vs Cholish? Skillwise, who is better? I know tibau is bigger, cholish is coming off a long layoff, hes inexperienced and its his first fight in brazil so I am already leaning tibau but i am a little worried about it. Cholish did alright against Castillo and I think he is pretty decent.

[Svino]

What do you guys think of Tibau vs Cholish? Skillwise, who is better? I know tibau is bigger, cholish is coming off a long layoff, hes inexperienced and its his first fight in brazil so I am already leaning tibau but i am a little worried about it. Cholish did alright against Castillo and I think he is pretty decent.

I thought Cholish was going to be a rising star until the Castillo fight. It seems though that he's not putting everything into his fight career that he could.

Tibau should probably be able to get takedowns (at least early), be better on the feet if he can't, and avoid the sub on the ground. Maybe Cholish has a shot if Tibau fades later. I don't think I'm betting either side, but if I did, I'd probably bet Tibau.

[edman5555]

I just read an interview with Tibau and he was talking about how he hired a nutritionist and his weight cut for this fight is much easier. No more troubles in the sauna. I am hoping that means that he shouldn't really fade.

I read another interview with Cholish where he said he is walking around at about 170 pounds. Tibau should have a good 15 pounds of muscle on the guy.

I figure the standup will make a huge difference as Cholish really isn't very good standing. I think Cholish's wrestling should be negated by Tibaus wrestling and size.

Tibau probably has better jiu jitsu. Without Tibau gassing he should win this handily. I kinda feel like Tibau is going to win inside the distance.

[poopoo333]

UFC on FX 8's Gleison Tibau lighter, leaner, more confident

[edman5555]

UFC on FX 8's Gleison Tibau lighter, leaner, more confident

I just read that one as well.

[edman5555]

What do you guys think about Maldanado and Martins? I think they should both win but I can't find any video on Larsen. All i saw was him getting wrestle fucked by Cheisa which doesn't really tell me anything. Larsen was knocked out in two minutes in his UFC debut. So was Martins but his opponent was Edson Barboza. I am thinking Martins has the hometown advantage. He's from Chute box with a background in muay thai. From what I understand Larsens main game is striking but he was able to hold Cheisa up against the cage a little bit.

Martins has 12 wins, 11 insdide the distance. Only issue is they were all in one year and against guys with no records. I figure if its a standup battle Martins should be a lot better.

Hollett gassed against Hamill but he seems like he has a striking background. Maldando has a granite chin and huge power in his hands. He also has the hometown advantage and he wears guys out. I figure Hollett should get worn out by this guy.

[Svino]

I just watched an interview with Belfort and the interviewer asked him how he felt about being pegged as the underdog. He claimed he's under God's odds. I thought that was the best answer I have ever heard.

Anyways. Rockhold looked really emotional at the weigh ins. I am thinking the pressure is getting to him. First time in the UFC, winner could get a title shot, in Brazil, Main event and against the most dangerous guy he has ever fought. I will probably be betting Belfort.

I think this is as good a matchup as Vitor is likely to get these days, unless you go all the way down to Cung Le or Wandy. He's fighting a weaker (or at least less proven) striker who is unlikely to take him down. I admit I have always said that Vitor has a weakness to leg kicks (even Bisping used them a few times effectively) and Rockhold could potentially work that game plan against him, kicking and staying on the outside. But IMO, all that does is give Rockhold one possible way to win, not a probable one. He's no Machida, and I don't believe the persistent opinion that Vitor is a 1.5 round fighter. Someday, Vitor is going to fight a guy with a chin, and then I'll win my "Vitor by decision" bet.

I see some people saying that Rockhold's ability to switch stances may throw Vitor off, but I'll toss something else out there: Rockhold has never beaten a southpaw. Vitor has at least beaten Franklin.

[edman5555]

I am thinking about betting Belfort as well. I think his striking is better than Rockholds. I just rewatched the Rockhold, Souza fight and Souza tagged rockhold standing multple times before he started to gas a little bit. Rockholds Takedown defense was pretty good though. He throws some good kicks and shit but I figure someone like Belfort wont let Rockhold get by with a bunch of flashy shit. He leaves a lot of openings. Belfort and Jacare both have somehting in common that they are very explosive. The difference is Belfort has much better striking technique.

Does Belfort gas? I don't know. He looked pretty damn measured against Bisping. If Rockhold comes to wrestle he might be able to wear him out but shooting on Belfort leaves you open as well. Tough call. Hard to resist Belfort at plus odds looking so good and all TRT'd up, fighting in his home country against a guy that has less experience and isn't really any better in any area except for maybe wrestling. I really don't even know what his offensive wrestling is really like though. I don't think I have ever seen him use it.

[edman5555]

Its a tough call. I hate falling for hype and I kinda feel like I am doing that with Belfort.

That said, he kicks a lot of ass. He almost broke Jon Jones arm and his only loss as of late besides JJ is AS. My only issue is he hasnt really had a ton of fights. I will probably put 2 or 3 units on him if i win my other bets.

[Svino]

I know I watched the fight, but I have absolutely zero memory of seeing Hamill / Hollett.