UFC 109 Discussion

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Did you lose money on KOS in this fight?

Ha ha, no. I wasn't even betting on MMA at that point. As a matter of fact, I was just about to "congratulate" you on winning your Thiago bet, LOL.

The fan side of me just doesn't like stoppages like that. For the record, I also thought Maia/Marquardt was stopped early.

Funny you guys are talking about this fight. I closed a huge parlay with ufc 95 and needed Maia, Sanchez, Marquardt and Kos to win and I was winning $10,500. Kos Screwed me there. I was pretty bitter. I had an 8,10, and 15 team parlay and needed those fights to come through.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 109 bets

such a huge Parlay rarely pays off I would think. Even with all favorites...

[Luke]

Re: UFC 109 bets

such a huge Parlay rarely pays off I would think. Even with all favorites...

Well favs win 70% of the time so if you bet a 10 team parlay with all favorites you are bound to win 7 of the 10 just guessing.If you study hard I see no reason you couldnt hit 9 or all 10 if they are spread out over a few events

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I was under the impression he was talking about taking all the favorites on a single card, even at 7 out of 10 it isn't enough to turn a profit on a single card with a regular parlay.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I was under the impression he was talking about taking all the favorites on a single card, even at 7 out of 10 it isn't enough to turn a profit on a single card with a regular parlay.

He's not taking all the favorites. He's taking all that he thinks will win.

It's still not going to work. The odds just don't favor it.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 109 bets

These were parlays that started at 93, and consisted of guys from 94 and FN, and a couple basketball games. I went all the way until Koscheck. I still do those parlays, but risk far less.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 109 bets

So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u

Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u

Added today just for fun:
Couture wins in rd 3: .16u to win 1.7u
Added to the whole card parlay: Spurs -3.5, Cavs -12.5, houston -5.5, and okc -5.5 .03u to win 356.5u
Then did the whole card and switched out the Couture prop with Couture to win and Sonnen with marquardt .03u to win 1.8u.
Good luck guys

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I didn't actually go and confirm, but the guy underneath P who tries to defend him basically does the exact opposite and confirms the number.

Yeah, I noticed that!

To be fair though, these are just his recommendations at whatever shit line is around at fight time. Still though.

It's true. I mean, he only has two books to choose from and by the time he does his write ups a lot of the good lines have already been shot to hell. Still, on the bets he DOES make, he's only recommending plays on those he considers to be +EV at the lines at the time, so after a year he should be ahead for sure.

I'll say this, if after a year I went back and realized I hadn't made any money then I think I'd just quit.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

You like him at -475?

Indeed. I took him for 5u @ -475.

I should have jumped on -400 but I hadnt seen Beltran yet.


I think Beltran has about a 10% chance.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Who officially wants in on the SuperParlay? Zak?

If it's just me and Scientist then I'm just going to drop $5 out there and see what happens. If it's going to be more than the two of us, then I gotta collect money.

[thatchillguy]

Re: UFC 109 bets

My plays for the night.

1u to win 2.6u couture/maia/gracie/danzig/tuchs
1.5u to win 1.9u gracie/danzig/tuchs
3u to win 4.1u nate/danzig/tuchs
5.5u to win 3u nate/gracie
12u to win 2.5u gracie

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

gimme your paypal addy, ill send over 5 bucks.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Gracie up to -700 on bookmaker lol

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

SuperParlay!

2/6/10 5:08pm $10.00 $112.13 Pending 8 Team Parlay
Pending 2/6/10 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Randy Couture -360* vs Mark Coleman
Pending 2/6/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Mike Swick -210* vs Paulo Thiago
Pending 2/6/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Nate Marquardt -390* vs Chael Sonnen
Pending 2/6/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Demian Maia -345* vs Dan Miller
Pending 2/6/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Ronny Torres -120* vs Melvin Guillard
Pending 2/6/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Mac Danzig -360* vs Justin Buchholz
Pending 2/6/10 7:15pm UFC Fighting 1806 Chris Tuchscherer -200* vs Tim Hague
Pending 2/6/10 7:15pm UFC Fighting 1808 Rolles Gracie -730* vs Joey Beltran

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

SPX, I sent that money bro.