UFC 109 Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

For the Rolles fight, Im looking more at the style of the two fighters. I watched a couple of Beltrans fights (his fight against Tracey Willis looked like a hockey fight), he looks a brawler type of guy, not real techincal. He has a tendancy to try to clinch a guy into the cage, which I think is a terrible style for a guy that has the sub game of Rolles.

I think Gracie will take him down and sub him fast.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

For the Rolles fight, Im looking more at the style of the two fighters. I watched a couple of Beltrans fights (his fight against Tracey Willis looked like a hockey fight), he looks a brawler type of guy, not real techincal. He has a tendancy to try to clinch a guy into the cage, which I think is a terrible style for a guy that has the sub game of Rolles.

I think Gracie will take him down and sub him fast.

yep. That's my assessment too... he obviously has some power- but so does every HW that just chuck punches with no regard for the consequences. I think he will get clinched up, tripped and either RNC or mount gnp stoppage. Straight out of UFC 1.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 Discussion

I am looking forward to this card more than almost any other. I was pretty excited for BJ/Diego... but I am psyched for this card. I am a jiu jitsu fanboy though.

I got my team in the superbowl and my boys fighting Saturday. I might not leave the basement all weekend. I am probably going to just take cooler down and put a sign on the door for the pizza man "follow crumbs to basement."

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Rolles Gracie -420 to win 100

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Rolles Gracie -420 to win 100

Very odd bet for you in my opinion, Zak. I've seen you pass up what I would consider much better deals in the past.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I'm thinking about taking Swick at -200.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I also havent bet two fights on one card since Machida/Evans and Hughes/Serra.

I got a terrible cold, bordering on the flu. Maybe its all the nyquil/dayquil im taking..LOL

I think Rolles is a solid play here. As GSP says, Im not impressed with Beltrans performance. I think he will actually make it easier for Rolles, closing the distance for Rolles to get a throw/takedown and at that point, its academic.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I'm thinking about taking Swick at -200.

I actually lean Thiago

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Indeed. Well good to see you betting and good luck. We're both on Marky Marquardt and I'm staying away from this Rolles/Beltran fiasco.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Thiago is a tuff dude, I dont know. I think that fight is a pick em IMO. I could see that one going either way.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I actually lean Thiago

I think Thiago might have trouble with Swick's height/reach and on the feet he should be outclassed. On the ground he should have an advantage, at least on paper, but his wrestling is questionable while Swick--a younger, less experienced Swick mind you--held his own with Okami even though he lost.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Thiago is a tuff dude, I dont know. I think that fight is a pick em IMO. I could see that one going either way.

I was thinking Pk too ,thats why I'd lean thiago at +200.I wont be surprised no matter who wins

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I went bananas on this card too, I have 21% of my bankroll out.

6u on Nate @ -275
5u on Maia @ -300
5u on Danzig @ -275
5u on Rolles @ -475

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.

That sounds like a greater than -200 amount of certainty.